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Username Post: Looking ahead        (Topic#20070)
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1459

Reg: 10-09-09
03-06-17 05:43 PM - Post#225288    
    In response to Chet Forte

Although it's just a N of 1, the Much vs.Faulds outcome will present a particularly stark outcome of this debate. I have no doubt that Much will be good; I guess like a lot of Columbia fans, I just bristle a bit when we get the numerically highest ranked IL recruit, and he is still downgraded.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4560

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-06-17 05:57 PM - Post#225290    
    In response to cc66

It's not personal. I mean, Boudreaux was the highest-rated recruit in 2015, and he was a top choice of mine for ROY that year along with Corey, TMac and Cannady. I also liked Fuller and Gettings, though those didn't look so great in year 1 and look a lot better now.

This year, I really, really liked Mike Smith. It's not an anti-Columbia thing. And I also don't think Faulds will be bad. He could end up being a very productive player. He's just not the TOP player in this incoming class. This year, you could have a really, really good rookie that wouldn't make an All-Rookie First Team, if the Ivy had one. We're just recruiting so, so much better than in years past - it's not at all a knock to say a player isn't the absolute top in the class.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4104

Reg: 11-22-04
03-06-17 10:06 PM - Post#225331    
    In response to cc66

I agree that there is some extent that this is circular -- when we talk about offers, we are assigning greater weight to certain school's offers. That even happens within the Ivy. So there is a certain circularity where in a sense we are saying Princeton's recruits are better than Columbia's because they ended up at Princeton. That said, the Ivy recruiting heirarchy is evident here. Faulds seemingly chose Columbia over Cornell and some regional Midwestern schools (Oakland, for example). Much chose Princeton over Yale and a whole host of places, including some high majors. Now, it could be that the recruiting services know more than the coaches, but I doubt it.

The outcome doesn't necessarily prove the point, though. We all know that there are kids who are afterthoughts who turn into players, and high recruits who don't. Faulds obviously has size and ability. we'll see what happens.

There is a chance for both guys to play right away.


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-06-17 10:20 PM - Post#225337    
    In response to SomeGuy

Faulds has an 80 rating, one four star rating, and a great senior year. He is 6'10" and 225. Much has a 78 and is either 6'7" or 6'8". Faulds is a top 5 recruit for the state of Michigan who took himself out of the recruiting sweepstakes this summer by committing to Columbia. Both are likely to be good players, probably even very good players, but one thing you can't teach is height. In any event, what I have been reading is that Hanson has had a monster senior year, has grown an inch or two, and is being called a "steal." I have also heard that Stefanini came on like gamgbusters this year, has the best shooting touch of all of the incoming freshmen in the IL, and should have an immediate impact.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4104

Reg: 11-22-04
03-06-17 10:39 PM - Post#225339    
    In response to Chet Forte

Nothing wrong with being excited about Faulds. Perhaps he was destined for bigger offers if he stuck it out into the Fall. Nonetheless, past experience with these types of high rating recruits without high level offers (Penn has had enough of them) leaves me thinking I'd be a lot more confident if Columbia actually went toe to toe with Princeton, Yale, or Harvard, and won out.

I do agree that Hanson looks like a good get, though neither he nor Santinini looks top 10 in the league among incoming recruits to me. Both would be top 15. But I'm just guessing based on publicly available info -- Mike James knows more.



 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-07-17 11:05 AM - Post#225380    
    In response to SomeGuy

And looking back, NYC Buckets listed its POY, ROY, and first and second team all Ivy choices. We took a horse collar across the board. Mike Smith was one of four finalists for ROY, and Petrasek got some consideration for second team all Ivy. My guess is that the official all Ivy team will look a lot like this. Before the season, despite concerns about our overall record, I had expected Petrasek to have a monster senior year. That never materialized. And I can't really quarrel with these choices. This suggests as Bill Parcells once said, that you are what your record says you are. My only quarrel, and it is a minor one, is that I thought that Smith as a PG with all of the responsibilities that entails, made a good case for TOY.


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-07-17 12:07 PM - Post#225391    
    In response to Chet Forte

Meant ROY.


 
Columbia 37P6 
PhD Student
Posts: 1373

Reg: 02-14-06
03-07-17 01:17 PM - Post#225407    
    In response to Chet Forte

I agree with you. Mike Smith had a sensational freshman year and is a terrific all around player. He made some amazing clutch shots against Stony Brook, Penn and others teams. Obviously, Mike is already our best player and essentially the team "captain" and he is still a freshman. I think he has a great future ahead of him.

 
Columbia 37P6 
PhD Student
Posts: 1373

Reg: 02-14-06
03-07-17 01:31 PM - Post#225410    
    In response to Columbia 37P6

Luke Petrasek may not have had the "monster year" we hoped for, but nevertheless he had an outstanding year and would have been a first team All-Ivy League selection if the Lions had won a few more games. Luke will be remembered at Columbia for his tremendous athleticism and hustle, and specially for his uncanny ability to play outside effectively as a 6'10" wing. Luke improved his game dramatically this year by adding to his offensive arsenal some great perimeter moves to the basket. Although Luke develop into a nice shot blocker, and became a good defender, he will need to add some brawn if he wishes to excel at the next level.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 15347

Reg: 11-21-04
03-07-17 01:43 PM - Post#225415    
    In response to Columbia 37P6

He's the real deal. Might have the largest upside of any of this year's freshmen, and that's saying something.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3025

Reg: 02-04-06
03-07-17 07:25 PM - Post#225470    
    In response to palestra38

Concur on Smith. Great mentally and physically in every game I saw. Also, his solid build is remarkable. Mike (The Dorm Refrigerator) Smith.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-07-17 09:10 PM - Post#225484    
    In response to SRP

Program listed Smith at 5'11" and 196 lbs. I believe the 196 part.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4104

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Looking ahead
03-07-17 09:26 PM - Post#225491    
    In response to Columbia Alum

I don't think that the kenpom rating at the start should be used as either an indication of where Columbia was or where it should have been. It's just an educated guess coming into the season. I don't think the drop in Columbia's rating as the season went on was a result of playing worse, so much as it was a result of the preseason rating slowly dropping out of the numbers.

Part of Columbia's problem was just that Penn turned out to be quite a bit better than expected.

Losing all those front court minutes will hurt next year. Tape and Meisner will be the keys.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4560

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-07-17 09:39 PM - Post#225494    
    In response to SomeGuy

We're going to have as many as four teams in or near the Top 100 next year. It's not gonna get any easier to make the Ivy Tourney.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 15347

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Looking ahead
03-08-17 09:49 AM - Post#225528    
    In response to SomeGuy

Penn was only much better than expected in terms of its recovery from 0-6. I would have expected a 6-8 +/- 1 game for Penn coming in. Notwithstanding Penn's final record, if you said that when CU was 4-2 in the League and Penn was 0-6 that the two teams would split their 2 games yet Penn would finish ahead of Columbia, people would have laughed at you.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4104

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Looking ahead
03-08-17 10:00 AM - Post#225533    
    In response to palestra38

Well, note that I did say that 6-8 would win the 4th spot while you were were torturing yourself over the Brown loss, and I was still confident in our chances when we were 0-4. I admit that when we hit 0-6, I didn't think we'd get there.

It did seem clear that Columbia would hit the skids, simply because their schedule was so much tougher in the 2nd half. They needed to start at least 4-2 to have a good chance. I'm still surprised (and pleased) that Brown was so up for that game last Friday -- I thought that the team that was playing for something would pull through, and I certainly didn't see Brown winning in a rout. That's an example of a game where, earlier in the season, I would expect Brown to win more often than not, but with the season on the line for Columbia, I thought the Lions would win.

 
Columbia Alum 
Junior
Posts: 201

Age: 31
Reg: 11-15-11
03-08-17 10:51 AM - Post#225554    
    In response to SomeGuy

The second Brown game made it very deserving that Columbia got kicked out of the top 4. We were unable to beat a KP 250 team that literally had only pride to play for, and we were not unlucky, we were thrashed by them.

Whether we made the top 4 or not, this season was poor (by both Columbia and Penn). There needs to be a lot of introspection by the coaching staff and commitment to improve by players and staff. Mr James is right, every season for the foreseeable future will have a higher hurdle to make the tourney.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-08-17 11:15 AM - Post#225565    
    In response to Columbia Alum

When your best player is a freshman PG, and he is also your toughest player, then you lack senior leadership. Mike probably led the team in minutes! We have debated the junior and senior classes ad nauseum. Luke was good, not great, and never reached his potential. Jeff was very inconsistent and his play deteriorated as the season went along, especially in the last few weekends. Nate was pretty ineffective going through the league the second time around. McComber and Voss played too limited a role to matter much. Losing Castlin, who probably would have been our best player, was huge, and we didn't have the depth to make up for his loss. Meisner' back problems were also a real problem. He play at the second Yale game reminded me that he and Tape both deserved more minutes. If this year was a learning experience I would have played both of them until they fouled out.


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1749

Reg: 03-02-08
03-08-17 08:43 PM - Post#225737    
    In response to Chet Forte

PS, Aiken got ROY, beating out a very strong class. Although I wasn't surprised I thought a case could have been made for Mike in light of what he meant to his team, plus his stats were certainly comparable to Aiken, but I suppose that Penn and Yale fans have their own case for their guy as well. In any event, it probably tak s more than 5 wins to get ROY.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4560

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-08-17 09:28 PM - Post#225761    
    In response to Chet Forte

Mike's a very good player. Probably wins half of the ROY races over the past 10 years, if not more. Just a crazy year and a fantastic sign for the league that a kid like Mike didn't even get a ton of ROY buzz.

 
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