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Username Post: Recruits' Post Season        (Topic#20073)
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
03-05-17 12:09 PM - Post#224978    

Stefanini's Bergen Catholic team won its sectional semi-final Saturday evening. Finals on Wednesday against Don Bosch, the team to which BC lost by a bucket in the county finals.

Hanson's Chaska is the top seed among 8 teams in its sectionals that also start on Wednesday. He finished the regular season with a 24.5 pt average. There's a nice recent article about him coming to NY that I'll try to link up.

Faulds's Holt team is starting district play on Monday. In the last 5 games, he scored 17, 22, 18, 16 and 20, respectively; he grabbed 12, 14, 14 and 12 boards (couldn't find rebounds for one of the games); and in two of the games, he had 8 blocks in each.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
03-05-17 12:17 PM - Post#224982    
    In response to Dr. V

I can't figure out how to link with my IPad. The article is "Chaska basketball's Hanson plans to score in business too." It's at mnbasketballhub.com.

And, correction. Hanson's average is 24.2.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
03-05-17 01:29 PM - Post#225000    
    In response to Dr. V

Maybe Mullins had a comparable ppg average his last year in HS, but otherwise, I don't remember one. More generally, Hanson seems to be part of a movement to get taller (6'5") more athletic guys who can do everything. It represents, as I think you said elsewhere, the adoption of the Princeton model.

Re Faulds, I'm pretty sure he'll be a star in the IL, but the question is how quickly. He already has the skill set, and he doesn't have to grow into his body like Petrasek did. But since it will still take some time, I don't think we can expect more than 10-12 ppg from him next year.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-17 03:26 PM - Post#226130    
    In response to cc66

Stefanini's Bergen Catholic team suffered a heartbreaking loss in the sectional finals at Rutgers to Don Bosco 60-59 on a FT with 3 seconds to go. Stefanini was brilliant with 27 pts.

So Stefanini's and Brumant's seasons are over (Kent School lost its first round game).

Hanson's Chaska won its opening round game Wednesday 70-57 with Hanson leading with 18. Sectional semis on Saturday.

Faulds's Holt team, # 20 in the last state poll before post-season, won its first two games, last night 53-41, and will play in the district finals on Saturday. Last night Faulds had a triple double with 11 pts, 17 rebs and 10 blocks.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
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Reg: 03-02-08
03-10-17 08:55 PM - Post#226169    
    In response to Dr. V

Brumant made first team all New England class A private schools


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-12-17 01:11 AM - Post#226439    
    In response to Chet Forte

Myles Hanson had an incredible 46 points in a semifinal win in the state tourney today, He was hitting from inside and outside. Video highlights are on Twitter thanks to Mike Smith. He looks like he is going to be a contributor right away.


 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
03-12-17 08:40 AM - Post#226457    
    In response to Chet Forte

To add to the week wrap up, Holt won its District championship 74-44; Faulds with 14 pts and 7 boards. Next is the regional semi-final on Tuesday.

To add a footnote to Chet's post, Hanson's Chaska won in a sectional semi; final on Friday the 17th.

It's hard to predict who actually will/won't turn out how on the next level, but I'm with Chet on this. Hanson looks like a prototype 3, a position of need, who could contribute right away.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-17 11:03 AM - Post#226923    
    In response to Dr. V

Holt lost 69-50 to the # 3 team in the state Kalamzaoo Central in the regional semis. Central has a big who is going to Michigan. Faulds aquitted himself well with 19 pts and 13 rebounds. An article on the game also had the following:

Holt center and Columbia University signee Jaron Faulds led the Rams with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while junior Caleb Cooper added 12 points.

Holt graduates five seniors who led the Rams to their first regional semifinal appearance since 2014, including Faulds, who finished his four-year varsity career as the programs career leader in rebounds and blocks.

“He’s been the face of our program for the last couple years, and I don’t think kids that good are often as unselfish as he is,” Holt coach Matt Essell said. “This is the first year that he really demanded the ball, and all he cares about is winning and his teammates. He doesn’t want any of the limelight.”

The 6-foot-10 senior received a handful of full-ride scholarship offers to Mid-Major college basketball programs, and Essell said Big Ten offers were likely on the horizon, but Faulds elected to sign with Columbia during the summer after his junior year.

“There were some college coaches that were a little frustrated with him and asked why he was passing up a full-ride to play in the Ivy League, but he and his family had it figured out,” Essell said. “He’s going to be set up for life.

“One thing that other kids see is that you can be this big-time player, but also be a great leader and a really good kid. I think he’s hopefully the model for the new players that come through to not just be a great player, but to be a great student and be a great teammate and have everyone in the school love you.

“I think he’s really that kid.”

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-14-17 12:44 PM - Post#226950    
    In response to Dr. V

Hopefully none of the high majors will try to unhook him.


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-14-17 12:49 PM - Post#226952    
    In response to Chet Forte

PS, I remain puzzled by the apparent insistence of some of the gurus who occasionally post here and on other blogs that he is not one of the best incoming freshmen. He seems to be the complete package, a four year starter, and an instant impact guy in a league which doesn't feature many players with his length/skill set combination. Interesting that major program/Big Ten Coaches are "frustrated" that he has opted to gonIvy.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4583

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-17 02:46 PM - Post#226987    
    In response to Chet Forte

To be fair, that's what is high school coach said (grain of salt), and he didn't say that Big Ten Coaches were frustrated, he said that those who had extended him offers were frustrated he wasn't taking the full ride and going Ivy. Given that he said Big Ten offers were maybe coming down the road, it wasn't those schools that were frustrated.

I want to be clear about what I'm saying, though. This isn't the old Ivy League where saying a recruit wasn't the best incoming freshmen meant that he wasn't likely to be an impact player early on. We went nine deep with freshmen that had 2 or more win shares, including Mike Smith at No. 9. Faulds would likely be in a group of that size if I were ranking the freshmen. You don't have to be top two in the incoming class to be projected to make a very big impact in year one.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
Recruits' Post Season
03-14-17 06:15 PM - Post#227023    
    In response to mrjames

Princeton plays Notre Dame, whose best player is Bonzie Colson. Ironically, Colson's ESPN recruiting score in 2014? 80, the same as Jaron Faulds.

Edited by cc66 on 03-14-17 06:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
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Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 08:40 AM - Post#227053    
    In response to cc66

ESPN doesn't do an amazing job sweeping and cleaning its ratings from the original grade given for prospects not in or around their Top 100.

From what I'm hearing, the entering class is:
Tier I: Djuricic, Much
Tier II: Cambridge, Faulds, Haskett, Williams, Simmons, Desrosiers, Schweiger, Atkinson, Swain, Yess
Tier III: DeWolf, Newman, Hanson, Stefanini, Knight, Scott, Barnes, Gabiddon

To be fair, I haven't heard much about the Cornell incoming class. As I mentioned before, this season we had nine kids in this class with 2+ win shares, 11 with over 1 and 19 with at least a half. I'd expect only a slight drop in the total productivity of the incoming class versus last year (though similar depth), so there's room for most of the 20 names above to have varying levels of real impact in the league next year.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-15-17 09:49 AM - Post#227061    
    In response to mrjames

For whatever i's worth, has anybody compiled a list which shows number of stars for incoming recruits (as is routinely done for IL football recruits) plus ESPN ratings? What we hear subjectively about recruits will be determined by the persons with whom we speak.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
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Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 09:54 AM - Post#227063    
    In response to Chet Forte

I have a database going back to 2003 upon which I build my recruiting models, but I haven't added in the 2017 kids yet.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-15-17 10:21 AM - Post#227073    
    In response to mrjames

Re Faulds and Much: ESPN has Faulds at 80 and 4 stars and Much at 78 and three stars. So objectively Faulds should be the highest ranked recruit and the only four star guy.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4583

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 10:34 AM - Post#227080    
    In response to Chet Forte

Correct - I believe my model would have Faulds No. 1. Faulds is three star across the other systems I include. That being said, my model buckets recruits and I don't know that Faulds would be the only one in that top bucket, especially if ESPN does a sweep of that number.

The analysis I'm providing here is different than the analysis I'll provide when I run the model. The benefit of my model is that it looks at team classes as a whole, versus stuff I hear which is about specific players and their abilities. This fits the strengths of both inputs. The model is leveraging odds across many players, while scouting reports on specific players are far more accurate at creating expectations by player.

 
QHoops 
Junior
Posts: 262

Reg: 12-16-04
03-15-17 12:38 PM - Post#227104    
    In response to mrjames

Mike,

I'd be interested in your evaluation of last year's recruiting class (ala your Tier 1-3 analysis above), and how (or if) you would re-order that list after their freshmen year.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4583

Loc: Jersey City, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 02:07 PM - Post#227121    
    In response to QHoops

Ha - it's hard to remember everything but I'd say that the names I was hearing most were a lot of the names that ended up being the most productive players.

Underbuzzed:
Miye Oni - Name was skyrocketing during his post-grad year, but I'd argue that given his and Bruner's production, based on the preseason buzz, you'd have expected the two outputs to be flipped.

Justin Bassey - Aiken, Towns and Lewis were seen as "play right away guys" and Baker was appropriately projected as a longer-term play. Bassey was one that I didn't expect to see starters' minutes.

Ryan Betley - Obviously, AJ got a ton of hype, and I had heard that other Penn frosh would see a good amount of time. Betley's production level was far ahead of that.

Josh Howard - Had heard good things about BA, and he was good as a frosh, but Josh Howard was pretty stellar from out of nowhere.

Josh Warren - Way off my radar. A pattern exists there though - I've got a blind spot with Cornell.

Overbuzzed:
Hard to say who fits here. The Princeton kids were expected to be very good, but they weren't stealing PT from the guys ahead of them, so the jury is out there.

Might have expected more from Williams at Yale and Erebor at Brown given the needs in the post.

Otherwise, I think last year went pretty true to form.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-17 07:19 PM - Post#227165    
    In response to mrjames

At one point last offseason, I believe you predicted Oni would be Yale's best freshman. You eventually went back to Bruner as the season got closer. So I give you credit for seeing that one coming.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 794

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-15-17 07:30 PM - Post#227168    
    In response to mrjames

Regarding Bassey, we both noted that Harvard was looking for a perimeter defender and considered a few options, mainly Bassey and Chatfield.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-17 07:55 PM - Post#227169    
    In response to Chet Forte

I think you may be misunderstanding where Mike is getting information on this stuff (and how ESPN is ranking recruits as well). My guess is that he probably has better access to what the Columbia coaches think about the incoming recruits than you do. So while you are correct that a lot of us only get info from one biased source, I don't think that is what you get from mrjames.

The services get better all the time, but they are prone to all of the problems you can imagine of trying to somehow rank or categorize over a thousand players every year.

And regardless of whether the services are right, the other question is always opportunity. That's why Oni was predictable -- if he was ready, once Mason went down there was no question he would start. That's why I think the Princeton guys are the favorites for next year. Seems like one of Much and Desrosiers could come in and start right away if they are ready, and they could do it on a strong balanced team where they wouldn't have to do it all. Could be that Faulds will ultimately be the best player. Could be that he will be ROY. But it looks to me like his chances as a freshman will be a little lower, as my guess is that Tape and Meisner start.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3047

Reg: 02-04-06
03-15-17 08:00 PM - Post#227170    
    In response to SomeGuy

Wasn't Bruner hampered by a knee ding most of the season? He seemed to step it up a lot in the last few games. He is obviously hugely talented just watching him move when the ball comes his way, on both ends of the floor.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-17 08:15 PM - Post#227171    
    In response to mrjames

Yes, Cornell is interesting. I kind of assume that Earl knew what he was looking for and got it. But nobody stands out in an obvious way. Verbal commits offers and McKenzie's teammates suggest that the guards might be better than the forwards (which I guess is bad news for a team that had to play small this year). But again, Brown, Cornell, and Dartmouth all look significantly behind the other five to me.

Your list is interesting. Surprised Scott is that low. Djuricic is interesting on the playing time front. Obviously Amaker isn't afraid to drop guys from the rotation as he goes, but it seems like Harvard will return a pretty clear top 6, plus lots of other pieces. So even if he is awesome, it might be hard to shoulder into a big role initially.

A couple guys who I'm curious about who aren't on the list are Aluassa and Brown's incoming point. Any word on them? Tier IV?!

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3237

Reg: 11-23-04
03-15-17 08:54 PM - Post#227174    
    In response to SomeGuy

On paper, I believe Brown has a great incoming group. But, I want to see them against college level competition before I start predicting how they will preform.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-17 09:35 PM - Post#227176    
    In response to Old Bear

I'm sorry to seem so down on them. It's just that the public offers for the Brown guys are much less impressive than those of a lot of the other schools, and nobody seems to give any of the Brown guys more than 2 stars (while 10 players of that level are coming in elsewhere). Brown may well have a group that fits on paper, but my concern is that they're not going toe to toe with schools at a higher level and coming out ahead. I think the gap is widening right now between the haves and have nots in the Ivy. Hopefully, in the next couple of years Brown gets in the mix for the kinds of recruits who are ending up at Harvard, Yale, Penn, and Princeton.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-16-17 10:13 AM - Post#227206    
    In response to SomeGuy

One thing I noticed about the Columbia group is that all of the top four had committed by around September and presumably are early admits. I wonder how many went to the Columbia summer camp, but my guess is that this has become a must for the schools to attract good recruits.


 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
Recruits' Post Season
03-16-17 05:18 PM - Post#227373    
    In response to SomeGuy

Sg--why do you think Tape will start over Faulds?Is that an endorsement of Tape's one year greater experience, his potential, or just an assumption that even good first year centers don't start? And what do you think of Meissner/Faulds/Tape as a possible starting front line?

Edited by cc66 on 03-16-17 05:18 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: cruits' Post Season
03-16-17 07:30 PM - Post#227404    
    In response to cc66

All of the above on Tape.

Personally, I don't think you can play all 3 together in the modern game. Even if you could, I think Engles prefers to play small. If you are playing Harvard, Princeton, or Penn next year, who does Meisner guard? I just don't think he's going to do very well chasing Amir Bell around. And that's the 3rd big -- you're also going to have Tape chasing Towns, Stephens, or Betley around at the 4 spot.

Of course, I said the same thing last year about Columbia playing big, and I was right all year. Right up until the last game with Yale, when Engles played 3 bigs together for long stretches. You can do it against Yale, because they play 2 more traditional bigs (Reynolds can stretch the floor, but a big can guard him). So then the only match up problem is Oni.

Anyway, I predict that only 2 bigs play at once next year, and the other 3 starters are smith, Hickman, and Castlin.


 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
Recruits' Post Season
03-18-17 02:19 AM - Post#227526    
    In response to SomeGuy

Chaska won the 8-team sectional title 41-39 & is "going to the State," although I don't know what that means in MN other than they're playing on. Of greater interest, Hanson won the game on a drive and floater with 2.6 seconds to go and finished with 10 pts, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal.

Edited by Dr. V on 03-18-17 02:20 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
hoopsfan 
Masters Student
Posts: 500

Reg: 12-26-04
Re: cruits' Post Season
03-29-17 11:27 AM - Post#228296    
    In response to Dr. V

Myles Hanson AP 3rd Team All State Minnesota. The other third team seniors are going to Texas, Siean, and Western Illinois:
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/minn esota/...

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
03-29-17 11:56 AM - Post#228299    
    In response to hoopsfan

Although most of the 3rd team all-state players are, like Hanson, unranked, the Texas bound center does get an ESPN-84.

Next year, Faulds, Stefannini, and Hanson will each offer an intriguing test of the ranking's predictive value (yes, I know it may take more than one year...)

 
LionFan 
Senior
Posts: 370

Reg: 11-07-06
03-29-17 03:22 PM - Post#228309    
    In response to cc66

Randall Brumant sounds like he has potential to contribute, too. He took home first team all-New England Class A honors from NEPSAC. That's third level prep ball, with a bunch of post-grads (like Brumant, himself). Is that meaningful? Did anyone see him play?

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
03-29-17 03:55 PM - Post#228311    
    In response to LionFan

active, big wing span, defensive specialist, but how this translates to D1 is anyone's guess.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4116

Reg: 11-22-04
03-30-17 09:02 PM - Post#228371    
    In response to cc66

One caveat on the "intriguing test" of ratings "predictive powers": these 3 will just be additional data points, so we shouldn't read too much into what happens with an individual recruit. The rankings give us a sense of the odds that a given recruit develops into a star. They do best over a larger number of recruits. What happens in an individual case doesn't do much of anything to prove or disprove their predictive value. If you flip a coin and get heads twice in a row, that doesn't mean your odds are something other than 50/50.

The other thing to remember is that Columbia only had one guy who was above 2 stars last year (Davis). That means you can pretty much guarantee that multiple 2 star guys will be double digit scorers for Columbia. Cornell and Brown had nobody above 2 stars. So those teams are going to have 2 star players who will be statistically similar to whoever is leading Harvard in scoring. Doesn't mean they are equal players.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1472

Reg: 10-09-09
03-30-17 10:38 PM - Post#228373    
    In response to SomeGuy

In one sense, of course, you're right: these three recruits are just a couple of more data points in a much bigger discussion. What I meant, however, was that this year, this long-running discussion seems to have crystallized, in particular, around these three recruits. Incorporating a variety of subthemes (why doesn't Faulds with an ESPN 80 get more respect; do we reverse inputs and outcomes, i.e., if he were going to Princeton, would that automatically mean he was better; will either Hanson or Stefannini prove to be one of those under-the-radar guys?), it has come--at least to Columbia fans--to be invested with much more meaning.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1774

Reg: 03-02-08
03-31-17 10:21 AM - Post#228387    
    In response to cc66

Acceptance letters went out yesterday. 5.8% was second lowest in the Ivies. So we must be doing something right. As far as ratings being predictive, I seem to recall that Lo was not highly rated. Nor, for that matter, was this year's POY, Spencer Weiss.


 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1341

Reg: 11-21-04
04-09-17 07:43 PM - Post#228654    
    In response to Chet Forte

One of the two state-wide papers in MI, the Detroit Free Press, just ran its all-everything teams in today's edition. In addition to a combined classes (in MI, there are 4 based on size, with Class A containing the largest schools etc.) so-called "Dream Team," the paper also listed first, second and third all-state teams for each class. Faulds made the Class A first team:

Jaron Faulds

Jaron Faulds
Jaron Faulds (Photo: Courtesy photo)
Holt

6-10, Sr., C

The talented big man has always been an elite defender, but he developed a consistent offensive attack last season, averaging 17 points, 11.5 rebounds and four blocks. A four-year starter at Holt, Faulds will play Ivy League basketball at Columbia.

Coach Matt Essell: “He’s an outstanding defensive player and fixes a lot of things for us. He really started to improve his mid-range game on offense, those 15- to 18-foot jumpers. He’s a great back-to-the-basket scorer and also an amazing passer.”



 
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