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Username Post: Recruits' Post Season        (Topic#20073)
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1355

Reg: 11-21-04
03-05-17 11:09 AM - Post#224978    

Stefanini's Bergen Catholic team won its sectional semi-final Saturday evening. Finals on Wednesday against Don Bosch, the team to which BC lost by a bucket in the county finals.

Hanson's Chaska is the top seed among 8 teams in its sectionals that also start on Wednesday. He finished the regular season with a 24.5 pt average. There's a nice recent article about him coming to NY that I'll try to link up.

Faulds's Holt team is starting district play on Monday. In the last 5 games, he scored 17, 22, 18, 16 and 20, respectively; he grabbed 12, 14, 14 and 12 boards (couldn't find rebounds for one of the games); and in two of the games, he had 8 blocks in each.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1355

Reg: 11-21-04
03-05-17 11:17 AM - Post#224982    
    In response to Dr. V

I can't figure out how to link with my IPad. The article is "Chaska basketball's Hanson plans to score in business too." It's at mnbasketballhub.com.

And, correction. Hanson's average is 24.2.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1513

Reg: 10-09-09
03-05-17 12:29 PM - Post#225000    
    In response to Dr. V

Maybe Mullins had a comparable ppg average his last year in HS, but otherwise, I don't remember one. More generally, Hanson seems to be part of a movement to get taller (6'5") more athletic guys who can do everything. It represents, as I think you said elsewhere, the adoption of the Princeton model.

Re Faulds, I'm pretty sure he'll be a star in the IL, but the question is how quickly. He already has the skill set, and he doesn't have to grow into his body like Petrasek did. But since it will still take some time, I don't think we can expect more than 10-12 ppg from him next year.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1355

Reg: 11-21-04
03-10-17 02:26 PM - Post#226130    
    In response to cc66

Stefanini's Bergen Catholic team suffered a heartbreaking loss in the sectional finals at Rutgers to Don Bosco 60-59 on a FT with 3 seconds to go. Stefanini was brilliant with 27 pts.

So Stefanini's and Brumant's seasons are over (Kent School lost its first round game).

Hanson's Chaska won its opening round game Wednesday 70-57 with Hanson leading with 18. Sectional semis on Saturday.

Faulds's Holt team, # 20 in the last state poll before post-season, won its first two games, last night 53-41, and will play in the district finals on Saturday. Last night Faulds had a triple double with 11 pts, 17 rebs and 10 blocks.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-10-17 07:55 PM - Post#226169    
    In response to Dr. V

Brumant made first team all New England class A private schools


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-12-17 12:11 AM - Post#226439    
    In response to Chet Forte

Myles Hanson had an incredible 46 points in a semifinal win in the state tourney today, He was hitting from inside and outside. Video highlights are on Twitter thanks to Mike Smith. He looks like he is going to be a contributor right away.


 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1355

Reg: 11-21-04
03-12-17 07:40 AM - Post#226457    
    In response to Chet Forte

To add to the week wrap up, Holt won its District championship 74-44; Faulds with 14 pts and 7 boards. Next is the regional semi-final on Tuesday.

To add a footnote to Chet's post, Hanson's Chaska won in a sectional semi; final on Friday the 17th.

It's hard to predict who actually will/won't turn out how on the next level, but I'm with Chet on this. Hanson looks like a prototype 3, a position of need, who could contribute right away.

 
Dr. V 
PhD Student
Posts: 1355

Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-17 10:03 AM - Post#226923    
    In response to Dr. V

Holt lost 69-50 to the # 3 team in the state Kalamzaoo Central in the regional semis. Central has a big who is going to Michigan. Faulds aquitted himself well with 19 pts and 13 rebounds. An article on the game also had the following:

Holt center and Columbia University signee Jaron Faulds led the Rams with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while junior Caleb Cooper added 12 points.

Holt graduates five seniors who led the Rams to their first regional semifinal appearance since 2014, including Faulds, who finished his four-year varsity career as the programs career leader in rebounds and blocks.

“He’s been the face of our program for the last couple years, and I don’t think kids that good are often as unselfish as he is,” Holt coach Matt Essell said. “This is the first year that he really demanded the ball, and all he cares about is winning and his teammates. He doesn’t want any of the limelight.”

The 6-foot-10 senior received a handful of full-ride scholarship offers to Mid-Major college basketball programs, and Essell said Big Ten offers were likely on the horizon, but Faulds elected to sign with Columbia during the summer after his junior year.

“There were some college coaches that were a little frustrated with him and asked why he was passing up a full-ride to play in the Ivy League, but he and his family had it figured out,” Essell said. “He’s going to be set up for life.

“One thing that other kids see is that you can be this big-time player, but also be a great leader and a really good kid. I think he’s hopefully the model for the new players that come through to not just be a great player, but to be a great student and be a great teammate and have everyone in the school love you.

“I think he’s really that kid.”

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-14-17 11:44 AM - Post#226950    
    In response to Dr. V

Hopefully none of the high majors will try to unhook him.


 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-14-17 11:49 AM - Post#226952    
    In response to Chet Forte

PS, I remain puzzled by the apparent insistence of some of the gurus who occasionally post here and on other blogs that he is not one of the best incoming freshmen. He seems to be the complete package, a four year starter, and an instant impact guy in a league which doesn't feature many players with his length/skill set combination. Interesting that major program/Big Ten Coaches are "frustrated" that he has opted to gonIvy.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4847

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-14-17 01:46 PM - Post#226987    
    In response to Chet Forte

To be fair, that's what is high school coach said (grain of salt), and he didn't say that Big Ten Coaches were frustrated, he said that those who had extended him offers were frustrated he wasn't taking the full ride and going Ivy. Given that he said Big Ten offers were maybe coming down the road, it wasn't those schools that were frustrated.

I want to be clear about what I'm saying, though. This isn't the old Ivy League where saying a recruit wasn't the best incoming freshmen meant that he wasn't likely to be an impact player early on. We went nine deep with freshmen that had 2 or more win shares, including Mike Smith at No. 9. Faulds would likely be in a group of that size if I were ranking the freshmen. You don't have to be top two in the incoming class to be projected to make a very big impact in year one.

 
cc66 
PhD Student
Posts: 1513

Reg: 10-09-09
Recruits' Post Season
03-14-17 05:15 PM - Post#227023    
    In response to mrjames

Princeton plays Notre Dame, whose best player is Bonzie Colson. Ironically, Colson's ESPN recruiting score in 2014? 80, the same as Jaron Faulds.

Edited by cc66 on 03-14-17 05:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4847

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 07:40 AM - Post#227053    
    In response to cc66

ESPN doesn't do an amazing job sweeping and cleaning its ratings from the original grade given for prospects not in or around their Top 100.

From what I'm hearing, the entering class is:
Tier I: Djuricic, Much
Tier II: Cambridge, Faulds, Haskett, Williams, Simmons, Desrosiers, Schweiger, Atkinson, Swain, Yess
Tier III: DeWolf, Newman, Hanson, Stefanini, Knight, Scott, Barnes, Gabiddon

To be fair, I haven't heard much about the Cornell incoming class. As I mentioned before, this season we had nine kids in this class with 2+ win shares, 11 with over 1 and 19 with at least a half. I'd expect only a slight drop in the total productivity of the incoming class versus last year (though similar depth), so there's room for most of the 20 names above to have varying levels of real impact in the league next year.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-15-17 08:49 AM - Post#227061    
    In response to mrjames

For whatever i's worth, has anybody compiled a list which shows number of stars for incoming recruits (as is routinely done for IL football recruits) plus ESPN ratings? What we hear subjectively about recruits will be determined by the persons with whom we speak.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4847

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 08:54 AM - Post#227063    
    In response to Chet Forte

I have a database going back to 2003 upon which I build my recruiting models, but I haven't added in the 2017 kids yet.

 
Chet Forte 
PhD Student
Posts: 1851

Reg: 03-02-08
03-15-17 09:21 AM - Post#227073    
    In response to mrjames

Re Faulds and Much: ESPN has Faulds at 80 and 4 stars and Much at 78 and three stars. So objectively Faulds should be the highest ranked recruit and the only four star guy.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4847

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 09:34 AM - Post#227080    
    In response to Chet Forte

Correct - I believe my model would have Faulds No. 1. Faulds is three star across the other systems I include. That being said, my model buckets recruits and I don't know that Faulds would be the only one in that top bucket, especially if ESPN does a sweep of that number.

The analysis I'm providing here is different than the analysis I'll provide when I run the model. The benefit of my model is that it looks at team classes as a whole, versus stuff I hear which is about specific players and their abilities. This fits the strengths of both inputs. The model is leveraging odds across many players, while scouting reports on specific players are far more accurate at creating expectations by player.

 
QHoops 
Junior
Posts: 268

Reg: 12-16-04
03-15-17 11:38 AM - Post#227104    
    In response to mrjames

Mike,

I'd be interested in your evaluation of last year's recruiting class (ala your Tier 1-3 analysis above), and how (or if) you would re-order that list after their freshmen year.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4847

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 01:07 PM - Post#227121    
    In response to QHoops

Ha - it's hard to remember everything but I'd say that the names I was hearing most were a lot of the names that ended up being the most productive players.

Underbuzzed:
Miye Oni - Name was skyrocketing during his post-grad year, but I'd argue that given his and Bruner's production, based on the preseason buzz, you'd have expected the two outputs to be flipped.

Justin Bassey - Aiken, Towns and Lewis were seen as "play right away guys" and Baker was appropriately projected as a longer-term play. Bassey was one that I didn't expect to see starters' minutes.

Ryan Betley - Obviously, AJ got a ton of hype, and I had heard that other Penn frosh would see a good amount of time. Betley's production level was far ahead of that.

Josh Howard - Had heard good things about BA, and he was good as a frosh, but Josh Howard was pretty stellar from out of nowhere.

Josh Warren - Way off my radar. A pattern exists there though - I've got a blind spot with Cornell.

Overbuzzed:
Hard to say who fits here. The Princeton kids were expected to be very good, but they weren't stealing PT from the guys ahead of them, so the jury is out there.

Might have expected more from Williams at Yale and Erebor at Brown given the needs in the post.

Otherwise, I think last year went pretty true to form.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4224

Reg: 11-22-04
03-15-17 06:19 PM - Post#227165    
    In response to mrjames

At one point last offseason, I believe you predicted Oni would be Yale's best freshman. You eventually went back to Bruner as the season got closer. So I give you credit for seeing that one coming.

 
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