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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: More on the Process        (Topic#20078)
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
03-05-17 09:53 PM - Post#225161    

Whatever happens next weekend, Donahue's shot makes obvious the improvement this year. Penn made the post season tournament and beat two of the three favorites along the way. The stats as measured by KenPom are way better than a year ago.

As to next year - I looked at it quickly three ways. Penn ranks just behind Dartmouth in fewest minutes lost to graduation. Harvard and Yale rank 3 and 4 in that regard, with Harvard losing Chambers. Princeton loses the most in the league.

As to Soph and Freshmen minutes, players most likely to improve next year, Penn surprisingly ranks 6th, but would be higher if just Ivy minutes count (Betley and Goodman) Harvard is first in that regard, Yale is second, Princeton is last. Penn's relative low rank has much to do with the lack of quality in Jerome's last recruiting class. It has a couple of useful players but no stars.

Based on Verbal Commits rankings of recruits, Penn is clearly in first place even if you rate Williams as a 2. Others have him as a 3. Yale is second, Harvard last and Princeton 6th. Combined with this year's final standings rank Yale, Penn and Harvard are the favorites with Princeton in big trouble. If Princeton contends next year you can rank Henderson as an even better coach than this year's result indicate.

Yes, such ranking methodologies are fraught with uncertainty, but they are useful in indicating the direction of the teams. Barring major injuries Penn should be in the post-season tournament next year without the need for heroics. Okay, Steve has not been a miracle worker. But he meets my expectations in March of 2017. Oh, if Penn is still alive seven days from now he is a miracle worker.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: More on the Process
03-05-17 09:56 PM - Post#225163    
    In response to UPIA1968

You are sadly mistaken if you think Princeton is in big trouble. Were they in big trouble when they lost 2 starters this year? They are deep and have a very good recruiting class. They may take a step back but they're still ahead of us right now.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
03-05-17 10:11 PM - Post#225169    
    In response to UPIA1968

We have seen a 100 place improvement in KenPom, which, as I remember, pretty big and certainly beyond expectations.

Remember those (who shall remain nameless) who said Cornell would be better than Penn?

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: More on the Process
03-05-17 10:30 PM - Post#225172    
    In response to UPIA1968

How are you calculating that from verbal commits? It looks to me like Penn has a composite 9.5 for 4 recruits, and Princeton a 9.3. That shouldn't be the difference between 1st and 6th.

The worse news is that I actually think Princeton has the best class. My guess is that Much is the best recruit coming into the league next year, and Desrosiers was a guy we really wanted and didn't get. Schweiger is only 2 stars, but his offers suggest he's good as well, and his size seems like a fit. Barnes I don't know much about, but Mike James said good things, and he usually knows, and verbal commits says Penn offered.

The bit of good news, though, is that another really strong class improves us, while Princeton at best is just kind of maintaining their talent level.



 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-05-17 10:56 PM - Post#225180    
    In response to SomeGuy

It's not the 2016 class, but it's probably comparable outside of Harvard's haul this year. Princeton should claim the best class, though Yale is right there as well. Penn got some good pieces. Harvard filled needs but its class isn't deep. The sneaky part is how much good talent funneled to non-HYPP schools. Cambridge plus the bigs at Brown, Knight at Dartmouth and the Columbia kids should all have a good shot to see time as freshmen.

I think it's safe to say that Princeton reloaded and with Mason + the Yale class coming in, the Bulldogs should improve noticeably. Penn should continue to progress. Chambers means a TON to Harvard, so I'm wait and see on what direction the Crimson goes in. Most likely up - just how far, want to wait on that.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
03-05-17 11:01 PM - Post#225182    
    In response to mrjames

Glad to see the shoutout for Chambers, who has been a rock on a young team. The PG situation next season should be dramatic, one way or another.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
03-06-17 12:06 AM - Post#225187    
    In response to SRP

For all its freshmen talent, and it is considerable, Harvard still has a lot of work to do to replace Chambers. Aiken may eventually. But, the little of him I saw against Princeton made me think that Tommy A has some heartburn ahead of him.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-06-17 12:17 AM - Post#225191    
    In response to Tiger69

Absolutely agree. Chambers and Zena are key parts of this team. Hard to seamlessly replace an experienced and selfless point guard and a rim protector who has finally learned how to (usually) refrain from fouling.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
03-06-17 07:41 AM - Post#225198    
    In response to mrjames

I guess Brown, Cornell, and Dartmouth got some good ones, and maybe they are the level of player that would have been going to the top teams in the league 15 years ago. However, it looks to me like the gap is widening for now, rather than closing. Everybody coming in for those three teams is a 2 star guy, and their public offers are nothing close to the guys H/Y/P/P are bringing in. Yes, opportunity will help, and maybe some of these guys will step right into a significant role while more highly touted guys sit behind other highly touted guys for Harvard. Still, I don't think we're there yet. Those 3 schools still seem to have a number of kids with non Division 1 offers, one Ivy or Patriot, etc. Sometimes the public offer info is wrong or doesn't tell the whole story, but there is a consistent difference in level of recruit right now.

The tide is rising in the sense that Penn, Princeton, and Yale are recruiting at a higher level now. Columbia is showing signs, too. The other 3, to my eye, not yet (or at least not nearly enough). Hopefully it gets there.

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1878

Reg: 11-29-04
03-06-17 08:15 AM - Post#225203    
    In response to SomeGuy

The 100 team rise in Penn's KenPom is interesting. If you look at the influx in talent, You'd have to point to the Freshmen and transfers. If you look at the outbound talent, it included DNH, Jamal Lewis, and Antonio Woods.

I do believe the inbound players had an influence. AJ was just a massive upgrade on our front line, even with his late-season slump. He is still always active and always a threat. The transfers helped us quite a bit in our OOC schedule, and Goodman and Betley helped us in our IL schedule.

Still, I have to give a big portion of the credit for that jump to the coaches. They seem to be establishing the culture, roster, and strategy to turn this around. While many of us have quibbles with the late development of the rotation and the defensive schemes, it is almost undeniable that Donahue is doing a lot of good here.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
03-06-17 08:53 AM - Post#225206    
    In response to SomeGuy

Mike's been getting good talent to Brown, but has struggled with transfers. If all of that talent had stayed, they might be the four seed instead of Penn (though they still would have been small). Columbia is indeed recruiting well - my specific comments notwithstanding they have been recruiting well globally these days. Dartmouth was really starting to recruit well under Cormier, and it will be interesting to see what happens under the new regime. Cornell - way too early to tell. Another one where the past guy was actually recruiting pretty well.

In general, I agree, though. There is a gap between HYPP recruiting and that of BCCD. Is it growing? Certainly in the short-term look-back window it has. But one thing to consider is, without consistent Top 100 talent, there isn't a lot more room for HYPP to increase the quality of their pools. It'll be interesting to see whether those schools take the next step first or whether the 3-star, some-high-major-offer talent starts flowing more commonly to BCCD, closing that gap again.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
03-06-17 09:01 AM - Post#225207    
    In response to Penndemonium

Outbound talent, except for DNH, was negligible given Woods going out in December and Lewis playing very little. Since AJ has been much better than DNH, and the freshman talent has really improved the team, the coaching staff starts off at an advantage.
Let's be honest as well, the staff was late in adjusting to the downturn in play in January--while they eventually made the changes that turned the season around, they came almost too late.

But in terms of the quality of the coaching, everyone here knows that Donahue and his staff are true qualified professional coaches, something we had not had at least since Rosen's senior year. We run plays, play different defensive schemes, don't get stripped while the coach is yelling 20 seconds of instructions while play is on...that sort of thing. The verdict is still out on the long term success of the program. But we are right where we should be right now (I was hoping for .500 this year) given it is really year 1 of recruiting. And making this playoff is the difference between satisfaction and disappointment this season. As I said in another post, it's all house money for us now. We should be loose against Princeton.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
03-06-17 09:27 AM - Post#225211    
    In response to Tiger69

  • Tiger69 Said:
For all its freshmen talent, and it is considerable, Harvard still has a lot of work to do to replace Chambers. Aiken may eventually. But, the little of him I saw against Princeton made me think that Tommy A has some heartburn ahead of him.


HARVARDDADGRAD will probably say I caught more of the good Aiken games than the spotty ones, and I also like Chambers a lot, but I don't think Amaker will have many sleepless nights with Aiken at the point.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
03-06-17 10:10 AM - Post#225215    
    In response to TheLine

i'm not sure who this insults, the sixers or penn, but what the sixers did and what penn did have nothing to do with each other. there's no tanking in college for better draft picks. it just feels gross to use that term here.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3988

Reg: 11-23-04
03-06-17 04:05 PM - Post#225272    
    In response to mrjames

MRJ, only one transfer would have helped Brown this year, IMO, and considering his play at Nevada, I not too sure of that.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2685

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
03-06-17 06:17 PM - Post#225303    
    In response to TheLine

HGD says Aiken needs to look to pass first, score if needed.

 
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
Re: More on the Process
03-07-17 10:28 PM - Post#225499    
    In response to SomeGuy

I added in Antonio Woods recruiting score.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: More on the Process
03-08-17 07:36 AM - Post#225518    
    In response to UPIA1968

Ok, but how do you get Princeton 6th? That's the one that seems really off.

 
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
Re: More on the Process
03-08-17 09:46 PM - Post#225768    
    In response to SomeGuy

Based on the Verbal Commits ratings. Other estimates may be better.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: More on the Process
03-09-17 12:22 AM - Post#225820    
    In response to UPIA1968

Right. I'm having trouble seeing how you can rank them 6th based on verbal commits when they have a 3 and a 2.3. Their average recruit rating would appear to be at worst 2nd to Penn.

 
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
Re: More on the Process
03-09-17 10:53 PM - Post#225994    
    In response to SomeGuy

My crude method was just to add the scores. Since most other schools had five recruits Princeton trails because they list only four, even with the two good gets. If the 3 turns out I will be wrong.

 
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