whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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03-10-17 10:47 AM - Post#226040
My preview:
http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/03/ivy-league-to urn...
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2702
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-10-17 12:14 PM - Post#226063
In response to whitakk
Thanks for the analysis. Seems like you see Yale reverting to the norm from 3 resulting in a tight game. I'm just as worried about Aiken's variability. Guess that's why it it seems objectively hard to beat a team 3 times in a year. Harvard may need to find a 3rd way to win.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-10-17 02:24 PM - Post#226114
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Love your shot charts. Harvard 2-13 from mid-range against Yale with two fouls drawn. Those could be forced attempts against the shot clock if Harvard is following the analytics, but I prefer to visualize Aiken just pulling up and letting fly.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2702
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-10-17 03:17 PM - Post#226127
In response to SRP
Aiken lets fly from 3. Usually Siyani and Seth in that area - they shot 4-18 on 2's in first meeting. Both have shot much much better of late.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2702
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Yale 03-10-17 03:41 PM - Post#226133
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
In two games against Yale Crimson other than Aiken only shot 8-30 from 3 (1-10 in second meeting). Zena and Chris in foul trouble throughout.
Yale did shoot poorly from 3, but very well on 2's: 22-43 and 22-38. Copeland 16-21 and Downey 10-17.
Harvard needs to keep the pressure on Yale 3's, especially Oni (40.6%), Dallier (38.9%) and Reynolds (37.4%). Stop Copeland's drives and shots in the lane, force him to take 3's where he shoots only 28.6%. I believe Zena can contain (not shut down) Downey, so it's important for Zena to stay out of foul trouble. Lewis is less physical and I expect Downey can be more effective in that matchup.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 03-10-17 03:47 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2819
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Yale 03-10-17 04:08 PM - Post#226137
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Hard to know whom Tigers should pull for in this one. I think that I'd rather root for a second rematch to yale, however. Harvard is only getting stronger with time, despite their letdown loss to the quackers.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 75
Reg: 01-15-16
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Re: Yale 03-10-17 05:36 PM - Post#226152
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Yale has certainly not performed well over the second half of the IL season. They simply have not improved as a group. Harvard should win as they have improved although anything can happen in a game.
Downey and Copeland have enjoyed success against Harvard with Downey's play against Lewis/Edosomwan somewhat of a surprise. The thought that Zena may try to hold his own against Downey is a long way from Edosomwan's play for a segment of last year. He just does not seem to play very tall plus he can be trapped. It did not seem that long ago that Zena was being really hyped but he has still has two IL games to make a statement -- he may well do it.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 05:15 PM - Post#226363
In response to bradley
It's the Nouveau Riche slot in the Ivy folly, after Princeton won the Old Money contest with Penn. I expect this to be a very intense game with Yale coming in ready to do anything to win.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 05:43 PM - Post#226374
In response to SRP
Kind of an NBA feel in the first 5 minutes. Teams playing loose and with great athleticism. Harvard's frontline defense has been poor but their shot blocking at the rim is a big factor.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 06:06 PM - Post#226379
In response to SRP
Yale up 38-30 at the half. Based on the regular season, Harvard has them right where they want them, right? Copeland and Oni are getting where they want, Harvard missing some shots they usually make. Fun game to watch if you like watching guys play above the rim.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 06:43 PM - Post#226381
In response to SRP
Yale has taken care of the ball much better in this game than in the previous meetings. Only 5 TOs with 10:06 left.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-11-17 06:55 PM - Post#226382
In response to SRP
It was quite the moment a few minutes ago as the Harvard bench erupted in oohs and ahs at a spin dribble move by Seth Towns on the baseline, undressing his defender as he rose for the easy score ... and then he blew the shot.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 07:03 PM - Post#226387
In response to Chip Bayers
Crimson can't buy a trey. Towns and johnson 2-15 between them, although Aiken is a good 4-9.
If Yale could hit a free throw or box out they'd be way ahead.
Bruner has been rising in the second half.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 07:04 PM - Post#226388
In response to SRP
That Oni blow-by and dunk with and-one was impressive.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 07:06 PM - Post#226389
In response to SRP
Aiken is playing hero ball very successfully down the stretch. The defense wasn't even that bad the last few times.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 07:08 PM - Post#226390
In response to SRP
Guess I jinxed Aiken, as he tried one more drive into traffic and turned it over.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-11-17 07:13 PM - Post#226392
In response to SRP
Bruner with the fantastic interception of Chambers and one made FT ices the game. Yale plays Princeton tomorrow.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4008
Reg: 11-23-04
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03-11-17 09:09 PM - Post#226409
In response to SRP
Aiken displayed why he was first team. However, Jones won Coach of the Game.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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03-11-17 10:34 PM - Post#226418
In response to Old Bear
We'll be seeing a lot more games like this over the next few years:
http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/03/3-yale-73-2-h arv...
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2702
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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03-12-17 01:54 AM - Post#226441
In response to whitakk
Not the best played game of the year. Weird feeling with a crowd that would barely fill Payne Whitney or Lavietes. Vacuous feeling imposed by making two NE foes travel 250 and 350 miles to play at Penn and less than an hour from Princeton was surreal. Their regular season games created more energy.
Harvard gutted it out despite awful shooting. Towns/Johnson/Chamber 4 for 30 overall, 2 for 19 on 3's.
Not saying that Yale's defense had no impact, but missed bunnies and wide open 3's were painful. I know this is flawed math, but normal 40% shooting results in roughly 21 additional points. More than enough to overcome a 2 point deficit.
Yale drove the lane with impunity the first half. Harvard did a nice job of adjusting in the second half, holding Copeland scoreless in second half.
Yale freshmen - Oni and Bruner - did just enough for the win down the stretch. Harvard's Aiken carried the Crimson back from a 13 point deficit. Must have felt strange for Coach Amaker who normally eschews hero ball.
Harvard's season low 5 TO's undone by remarkably atrocious shooting.
Good Luck to the Eli's tomorrow.
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