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Username Post: Tigers get #12 seed, to play Notre Dame        (Topic#20132)
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 485

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
03-15-17 10:20 AM - Post#227072    
    In response to SRP

In fairness, there are good reasons why Vegas has ND as a 7 pt favorite. ND's stat line is slightly better or comparable than the Tigers stats across the board playing far more difficult competition. The largest differential is their FT shooting. ND takes a lot of 3 pt shots and shoot at a similar % than the Tigers. They are a Junior/Senior laden team and you can see that they play as a unit -- very impressive long accurate passing after driving to the hoop. They do a tremendous amount of pick and roll on offense and I am surprised how many of their guys are quick in driving to the basket.

Defensively, they play tenaciously with good team defense. Their one weakness appears to be interior defense and preventing offensive rebounding.

The real challenge may be stopping their offense as the Tigers have not played anyone this good to date and their skill level is higher than any IL competitor.

With that all being said, the Tigers should be able to compete and score. Both are 3 pt shooting teams so anything can happen. Stephens somehow needs to give Colson a very hard time defensively.
Appears to be a very tough match up for the Tigers but they are good and now, they are the hunter vs. being the hunted.



 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16004

Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 10:29 AM - Post#227077    
    In response to bradley

Any time Vegas has an Ivy team as less than a 10 point dog, you know they have a chance.

 
mbaprof 
Freshman
Posts: 65

Age: 60
Reg: 12-24-11
03-15-17 01:03 PM - Post#227107    
    In response to palestra38

I took the points as I expect Pton to make a good game of it. Classy team, classy coach, great season.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3112

Reg: 02-04-06
03-15-17 01:18 PM - Post#227111    
    In response to palestra38

Sure, ND is favored by any analytics system and they look very tough via the eye test. Plus they have a ton of tournament experience and are a psychologically strong group. Even if Princeton keeps it close they won't get tight or anything--ask Stephen F. Austin from last year (who are probably still miffed about how the Irish pulled that game out last year).

The only pre-game factors tilting toward Princeton are less wear and tear from their conference tournament, a good chance at outrebounding the Irish, being good at defending ball screens, and the upward trajectory of their play over the season--I genuinely feel they still have one more half-level of improvement in them to discover in the heat of competition.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2040

Reg: 11-23-04
03-15-17 01:24 PM - Post#227112    
    In response to SRP

They are the 5 seed and we are 12 -- why shouldn't they be be a significant favorite?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3112

Reg: 02-04-06
03-15-17 01:31 PM - Post#227115    
    In response to Tiger69

They should be a favorite and they are. But I'm a fan thinking about how an upset could occur and what factors might work in my team's favor. (These particular seeds do seem about right, but others in the field are screwy, notably Wichita State where ESPN's BPI has them strongly favored as a ten seed.)

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16004

Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 01:35 PM - Post#227117    
    In response to SRP

Princeton is a good bet, not only due to the analytics of the matchup, but because of the historical context of the 5-12 rivalry:

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/march-madness-s eeds...

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 485

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
03-15-17 01:38 PM - Post#227118    
    In response to SRP

I am curious as to where do you think that next 1/2 level comes from? It may be Cook or Cannady against big time competition but I am not sure or perhaps, it comes from the entire group to play at another intensity level, if possible?

 
Streamers 
PhD Student
Posts: 1772
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-15-17 02:35 PM - Post#227126    
    In response to palestra38

I have been comparing point spreads with seeds for many years (I use this to guide my bracket picks.) The normal spread for a 12-5 game is about 6. This year the average is 5 because of Middle Tenn is only a 1 point dog as a 12. Princeton is 6.5 now and will likely be bet down to 6 by game time. If I were to bet this, I would put at least some of my money on Princeton on the money (odds) line where I can get +250 (win $250 on a $100 wager) on the theory that if Princeton keeps it close, they have an even chance of pulling the upset.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3112

Reg: 02-04-06
03-15-17 03:24 PM - Post#227140    
    In response to Streamers

Where the extra half-level could come from:

Cannady going off at the same time that two or three other players have good scoring games.

More assisted buckets at the rim. We get tantalizing glimpses of interior passes and backdoors but I think there is room for more plays like that replacing some of the lower-percentage isos we get out of the driving game and some of the forced treys.

Two or three more transition baskets a game. I love the slower, grinding style that carried the Tigers to a 19-game winning streak but I think they could run out a few more times off a steal or DR if they are alert for it.

More offense from the bigs. When they are in there I think Miller, Gladson, and Brennan (remember him?) could be more involved as cutters, passers, and scorers, not simply screening and handing off.

More steals without fouling. In an MH podcast interview with Pete Carril before the conference season, Carril used as an example of his coaching philosophy of teaching intelligent discretion rather than fixed rules that he wanted his players to know how and when to reach in for the ball. This team has a lot of guys with long arms and quick hands and they often have a help defender in the vicinity of the ball. They do OK at forcing turnovers but I think they could get a couple more per game without sacrificing other aspects of their D. For sure, no single thing seems to guarantee Princeton gaining ground during a game as well as forcing turnovers.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Sophomore
Posts: 190

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
03-15-17 04:32 PM - Post#227151    
    In response to SRP

I agree on the "half level" need and I agree that it's there. I think the most likely boost can come from Cannady, who has had some otherworldly shooting nights. He enjoys the spotlight. Gladson made some big contributions this weekend, which might get him over the top in terms of confidence. Brey MUST game plan for Stephens, but if they take him out of the game someone else will have more opportunities. On destiny's team, those opps get cashed in!!

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 485

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
03-15-17 05:14 PM - Post#227153    
    In response to SRP

I like the inside passing concept. Cook is looking more and more for guys when he drives to the basket leaps in the air and passes to an open player -- Stephens for 2 pt dunk and Cannady for open 3 pt shot. It adds a dimension besides Weisz's deadly across court passes plus Cook can get off acrobatic shots at the rim.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3272

Reg: 11-23-04
03-15-17 08:48 PM - Post#227173    
    In response to Tiger69

WTF is a "fine tiger"? I've never seen one.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 485

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
03-15-17 10:10 PM - Post#227180    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

If the Tigers get off to a slow start,they hopefully will rely on their experience and mental toughness to overcome. The other challenge will be to withstand strong runs made by the Irish during the course of the game if the Tigers start well.

Sears, Sherrod and Mason were down by 25+ to Duke last year and got it down to 3 pts with 30 seconds to go but a blown lay up by Sears sealed the deal. Weisz and Cook will need to keep the guys focused and mentally strong. Coach Henderson has always claimed that it is an upper classmen's league.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3112

Reg: 02-04-06
03-15-17 10:34 PM - Post#227182    
    In response to bradley

Forget the stage, forget the stakes, just ball out. Easier said than done.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2040

Reg: 11-23-04
03-16-17 01:17 AM - Post#227191    
    In response to Old Bear

Our version of a fine old bear.

 
H78 
PhD Student
Posts: 1415
H78
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 01-06-11
03-16-17 02:55 AM - Post#227193    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
Forget the stage, forget the stakes, just ball out. Easier said than done.


Yes.

P.S. Wearing Orange & Black tomorrow, and dealing with a 9:15 PDT start time...

#GoTigers

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 485

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
03-16-17 08:46 AM - Post#227198    
    In response to H78

Unfortunately, I could not make the trip to Buffalo but will be heading to a tavern near the Palestra for good luck. Mitch is doing a great job showing the Princeton brand.

Let's go Tigers!!!

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16004

Reg: 11-21-04
03-16-17 10:08 AM - Post#227205    
    In response to bradley

Lunch at Misconduct on JFK---sandwich and Princeton-ND. Let's win one (actually, I picked Princeton to the Sweet 16, which on the basis of recent Ivy performance, is not a stretch).

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3080

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
03-16-17 10:31 AM - Post#227209    
    In response to palestra38

Best of luck. The only way the league will get more respect is to win games this this one.


 
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