mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-10-17 08:03 AM - Post#231760
In response to 91Quake
The 5 game number was quite the same, though. If we were to believe that the 8-game number is representative of Penn finding itself, you'd want it to be relatively consistent for the remainder of the season. It's not. It's comprised of three shellackings where Penn played like No. 39 followed by five up and down games that, in totality, were No. 209.
The point is that there's no evidence that Penn consistently "improved" down the stretch. All I'm saying is that I've been doing this a long time, and I'd need to feel very, very good about multiple freshmen to even think about getting Penn close to the Top 100.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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08-10-17 10:06 AM - Post#231773
In response to mrjames
While I'm closer to Mike on this, I'll say that I'm basically a believer in Betley. I think that shooting will play and also has gravity that will make it easier on our other players to find space.
I'm higher on Betley than Devon but I will allow that more of Dev's value could come from defense. I'd like to see more on that before totally buying in.
I forgot Darnell was still on the team.
The big news to me in this thread is I did not know DPerry and UPIA were related.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-10-17 01:10 PM - Post#231803
In response to Jeff2sf
I believe Betley will be Penn's best and most consistent player this year. His off season has been spectacular from what I hear and his confidence level is off the charts.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-10-17 01:53 PM - Post#231812
In response to mrjames
The 5 game number was quite the same, though. If we were to believe that the 8-game number is representative of Penn finding itself, you'd want it to be relatively consistent for the remainder of the season. It's not. It's comprised of three shellackings where Penn played like No. 39 followed by five up and down games that, in totality, were No. 209.
The point is that there's no evidence that Penn consistently "improved" down the stretch. All I'm saying is that I've been doing this a long time, and I'd need to feel very, very good about multiple freshmen to even think about getting Penn close to the Top 100.
Mr James, your "I've been doing this a long time" statement doesn't make sense to me unless you are worried about your credibility, which in my view is unquestioned. It does appear to me that you are blurring the lines between the facts and your opinion, at least a little.
You seem to be equating IL success with KenPom ranking (e.g top 100). Last year's IL Tourney teams were KP 58, 112, 151, and 171 by my count. While the overall record of KP 58 and 112 were much better than Penn the facts are that the goal is to be one of 4 teams in the conference tournament. Last years' KP 171 was 2 FT's away from beating KP 58 for a rematch with KP 151 whom they had defeated by double digits in New Haven just a couple weeks earlier. That doesn't seem like Penn is a "long, long, long" way away or not even "... in the conversation". From my perspective they out performed last year and competed with all 3 of the top teams.
And the predictive capabilities of your models notwithstanding, you get a lot of credit on Harvard last year (you picked them second in the IL-"performed") when most everyone was caught up in the hype of the frosh class, but you were wrong on Penn (I believe you picked them 7th, behind Cornell, Dartmouth and Columbia and they definitely outperformed) though you will likely say it was within the margin of error.
With Penn bringing in the most talented freshman class of the IL and returning most of the their minutes from a year ago, I don't see the rationale for them being so far away from the pack, with or without Freshman contribution. I do think Jelani and/or Jarrod will be significant contributors this year though which may make all of this moot.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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08-10-17 01:54 PM - Post#231813
In response to PennFan10
From your lips to God's ear. What, specifically, was Betley been doing during the offseason?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-10-17 03:35 PM - Post#231817
In response to Silver Maple
I am not privy to his individual workouts, I just know that he has shined in the pickup games against the other Big 5 schools. He looks quicker, more explosive and stronger.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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08-10-17 04:22 PM - Post#231821
In response to PennFan10
The hidden value of having a guy like Betley is that the final sequence vs. Harvard never happens without him on the floor. And he didn't have to touch the ball.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-10-17 05:30 PM - Post#231823
In response to PennFan10
So, there is an important distinction here, and I want to be clear on what I'm talking about.
I haven't done my full view yet, but I think Penn will have strong odds to be Top 4 and, if so, will be two home games away from the NCAA Tournament. With the HCA boost, I'd expect a Penn team to have a non-trivial chance (for magnitude sake, let's say 15-20%) to win two games. I'm not addressing that question, and my comment about them being a "long, long way" doesn't apply to that.
I want to get a sense of how good teams truly will be, because that's a more predictable endeavor than the specific outcome of one trial and getting that right can help define the likelihood of drawing any one specific trial. Penn's starting point is the lowest of the four, it lost Matt Howard whose lineup splits were insane and finished third in win shares among non-Princeton players and its frosh class isn't expected to be the best in the Ivies. That to me looks like a team that ends up closer to where it started than one that makes a leap to solidly Top 100 (where it would need to be to be among the conversation as tops in the Ivies).
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-10-17 08:43 PM - Post#231830
In response to mrjames
Listen I would love nothing better than to see Penn surprise and break top 100, but unless a few guys make big leaps AND Jelani is fully recovered and impresses right away AND Jarrod comes in with a AJ Brodeur type fresh year.
We got to 171 KP but lost a key player, so to me the most likely path of progress is get to 125ish this year, get an equally good recruiting class for 2018 (need to land at least one star like Cotton and not a bunch of 2 star guys), and then break top 100 next year.
That doesn't mean we can't be 125ish this year, come in 4th, and pull some real upsets to be dancing... but it means that is a much lower probability to Princeton, Yale or Harvard winning.
I also agree with Mike that depth is critical and frankly we aren't there yet. I think we are closer with quality starters, but we still just need more. If Donahue can pull in another good class with a star level player in 2018, I think we are in good shape. If not and Mike is right about AI hurting us, then color me concerned moving forward.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-10-17 08:45 PM - Post#231831
In response to Mike Porter
I'm a big fan of Betley and love to hear what PF10 is saying! If he can make a leap and AJ can learn how to play against a double team that's where things start to get interesting. Here's also to hoping AJ has been shooting a lot of threes this offseason. If that consistently adds to his game that will make him hard to stop (think of jumps Koko, Zoller and even U made when 3 was a threat).
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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08-11-17 01:07 PM - Post#231849
In response to Penndemonium
I don't really get the lack of love for Betley here. He was our leading scorer in Ivy games. He was 13th in the league. There is an argument that, if not for the biases toward vets we see every year in the selections, he played at a third team level as a freshman. Is there really something in his game where you don't think he will get better as he goes?
In regard to the arguments about overestimating Penn overall, I want to be clear -- I think we'll be behind HYP this year. I think we can close some of the gap though (and widen the gap from us to 5th, which admittedly wasn't really a gap at all in league last year). So while I self describe as optimistic, I'm still not talking about winning the regular season or anything like that. If we get the same type of freshman impact as last year, though, things could move faster.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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08-11-17 01:30 PM - Post#231850
In response to SomeGuy
What lack of love for Betley?
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1896
Reg: 11-29-04
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08-11-17 02:00 PM - Post#231852
In response to TheLine
Yeah, my comments that he will need to take a big leap to be all-ivy says more about the league than a lack of appreciation for Betley. He spent much of the season injured and he is a skilled but not yet physical presence. He has a lot to prove to have all-ivy credentials and to be counted on as the guy who will carry us night after night to a championship. He has shown flashes of that, but there are a laundry list of players who have shown flashes.
Goodman also showed flashes, but is a long way from being a league dominant player. Right now it is just Brodeur, and even he cooled down in the Ivy season.
I liked the look of our freshman class on their highlight videos. They showed some promising athleticism and swagger as HS seniors.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
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08-11-17 07:05 PM - Post#231878
In response to Penndemonium
A couple of questions:
Who do people think are the starting five to start the season?
Will Coach Donahue settle on a starting five earlier this season than he did last year, or will he continue to experiment until the conference schedule?
Which of the incoming players make it into the starting lineup or rotation?
Will Hamilton have a greater role in this year's team?
Do people expect any improvement from MacDonald, Donahue, Wood, Silpe and Jones?
With Harvard, Princeton and Yale looking like 3 of the participants in next season's Ivy Tournament, which team do people think are the biggest threat to Penn for the other spot?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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08-11-17 08:13 PM - Post#231880
In response to Penndemonium
To me he plays a fairly physical game. He's not pure touch from the outside, which is what separates him from, say, Jackson Donahue's scoring as a freshman. Betley can create for himself.
But it was the third team Ivy thing that got me -- I think he's already at that level, so the comment to me suggested that he won't improve as a college player, which seemed strange.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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08-11-17 08:43 PM - Post#231882
In response to rbg
My guess is that it changes a lot during the year. Forced to guess now (and with less info than I'm sure some of the insiders have), I think Brodeur is a lock, Betley a virtual lock, and Foreman a near lock to start the year. After that, it could be lots of guys. I'll go with Hamilton and Goodman to start the season. I suppose Woods is likely to be in there somewhere, but we'd be small with Brodeur Betley woods foreman Goodman. That said, I think there is a good chance Betley fills the Howard role as the undersized 4 at least for stretches. Whether they go big with Rothschild/Simmons, small with Betley, or small with Hamilton/Scott at the 4 will be interesting.
Where does it end up? I wouldn't be at all surprised if we're starting Brodeur Simmons Betley Williams Goodman by the end of the year. Like this past year, we may see a lot of combos to get there.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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08-11-17 11:16 PM - Post#231884
In response to SomeGuy
Here's the problem (and I guess the fun) with this speculation... Is there anyone on this board who last year predicted Betley would play so well? How many thought Silpe would be the next Rosen?
Put me down as someone excited about the 2017-2018 Penn Men's Basketball Team...
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-12-17 01:24 AM - Post#231885
In response to Cvonvorys
The big question is who fills the role of Matt Howard? He was a small forward playing the 4. Betley is a stretch for,that as he isn't strong enough to guard a true 4. We don't know enough about Jarrod's game but if he is like AJ/Max, then we know Donahue doesn't like playing two bigs. One of those bigs will have to be able to,play small (shoot 3's, drive the ball,and defend guards as well as bigs, all while rebounding). Donahue isn't changing his stripes so if Simmons is more like AJ then MH, we will likely see Betley and Tyler in that role. Maybe Max can play that but that's not what donahue has asked him to do up to now. Jarrod is the guy if he has the skill set.
Of the older guys I like Silpe to make a run at significant playing time. Just a hunch. But I think he'll be a factor.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4358
Reg: 11-21-04
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08-12-17 07:03 AM - Post#231886
In response to PennFan10
I think it's a fallacy that Steve prefers to play an undersized 4 with Matt Howard type skills. That's not what he did at Cornell when he had a bigger body available.
My guess is that Simmons is the exact type he would like out there or that he would play AJ at the 4 (presuming we had a bettter alternative at the 5 (which is unlikely).
The big question is whether or not Simmons is ready and I certainly don't have that answer.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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08-12-17 09:09 AM - Post#231887
In response to AsiaSunset
Well, I don't know about Cornell but he didn't play two bigs much at all the last two years. So it's not a fallacy if it actually happened?
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