palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-21-17 09:09 AM - Post#233087
With our good friend Mr Perry finally taking us away from hopeless and wasteful moaning over recruiting to the team we actually have, what are our thoughts about the 9 players who constitute the regular rotation this year. In my view, the ideal mix would be
Brodeur
Rothschild
Woods
Goodman
Betley
Simmons
Williams
Hamilton
Donahue.
Obviously, I cannot make any truly educated opinion about the 2 freshmen I listed, but as to them I am hopeful. What do you guys think?
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Re: The Core 9
09-21-17 09:17 AM - Post#233090
In response to palestra38
No love for Darnell? Kid played his heart out last year and I think Steve appreciates it. Considering we have no idea how Jelani and (to a lesser extent) Antonio are going to contribute right now, I'd be very surprised if Darnell didn't get a lot of minutes, particularly early in the season.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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09-21-17 09:26 AM - Post#233092
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Agree on Foreman - was just going to post that myself after triple-checking that he hadn't graduated.
Jones will get playing time. I think so will McDonald, who might be stretched as a starter but is a nice guy to have on the bench.
Williams is coming off an injury, I'm guessing his minutes will be limited.
Brodeur, Betley, Goodman, Rothschild are locks. I'd be surprised if Foreman, Donahue and Jones don't get minutes. Woods' minutes are up to Woods, he has the talent but he has competition.
I'm guessing there's no Core 9. Donahue will go with match-ups at times. There are enough players with clear strengths and weaknesses.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: The Core 9
09-21-17 09:42 AM - Post#233095
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
I certainly appreciated his effort. He just wasn't quick enough, tall enough or a good enough shooter to compete with the guards on the top teams.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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09-21-17 10:29 AM - Post#233097
In response to palestra38
WIthout Matt Howard, the roster is quite different. Matt gave us athleticism and the ability to play big (rebounding/defense) that afforded tremendous flexibility. Now we hav issues. Who is gonna guard Seth Towns? Myles Stephens?
Donahue has to decide between playing two bigs (which he really hasn't ever done) or playing small (more zone?) Do we really want Betley getting banged by athletic wings and the potential foul trouble that comes with it?
I would be shocked if Darnell Foreman wasn't a starter on this team. He has worked his way into the rotation every year, despite best efforts to replace him. I actually don't see MacDonald getting much time. Hamilton may be an answer if he is healthy (rumblings that he isnt). I don't see Sam Jones playing much except as the occasional hot hand. And Caleb Woods will compete for that spot as well (he is a great shooter and can do more than Jones).
I agree its more like a core 4-5 and situational beyond that unless one or more of the frosh does an AJ this year. Eddie Scott is also a real possibility as he is athletic and has size. Just don't know if he will be ready for the big time.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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09-21-17 12:13 PM - Post#233102
In response to PennFan10
That is the conundrum of this team. Besides Brodeur, none of the players truly stands above in talent. Certainly players like Betley and Goodman have earned a solid spot for this year, but to my mind there wasn't a huge talent gap between them and Foreman, C. Wood, Hamilton, and the returning A. Woods. I think they both just showed a bit more between the ears to Coach Donahue by the end of the season.
A lineup with Brodeur and the rest is decent, but not nearly enough for a confident top 2 finish in the league. I think we have to hope that 1 or 2 of the incoming frosh show Brodeur levels of talent and development and that we get 1 Cotton type of recruit. That would feel like a team that competes at the top of the league. Even that team would no means be a sure thing in a competitive league.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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09-21-17 03:15 PM - Post#233111
In response to Penndemonium
Man, I don't know - Betley looked real good to me last year. I think he stands above everyone but Brodeur in talent. I was also impressed by what Goodman was doing in the last few games.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3777
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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09-21-17 03:38 PM - Post#233113
In response to TheLine
I agree about Betley, and hope he continues to build on what he showed last season. If he does, he could be an all conference level player. Time will tell. As for Goodman, he clearly has a excellent skills, as well as a level of quickness you don't see all that often in Ivy players. Where he fell short was judgment. If he can stop playing like a freshman and start playing like an upperclassman, he could be our point guard.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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The Core 9
09-21-17 04:10 PM - Post#233114
In response to Silver Maple
We really only have one chance at competing this year---if Woods is as good as he was projected to be by his junior year and if Goodman is as good as he looked and plays with greater poise.
A lineup of Woods-Goodman-Betley-Simm ons and Brodeur COULD be really really good.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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09-21-17 05:57 PM - Post#233116
In response to TheLine
Down the stretch last year our best player was Betley and probably next was Matt Howard. Brodeur was a distant 3rd. Let's hope he didn't plateau.
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91Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1125
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-21-17 07:06 PM - Post#233119
In response to PennFan10
He was double teamed (at least) in the league. He needs to learn how to deal with that. And he needs to use his left hand which will make him less predictable. He will get better.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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09-21-17 09:04 PM - Post#233124
In response to 91Quake
I wasn't implying that Betley wasn't great for us. He is one of our key building blocks for sure. Same with Goodman. It's just not an insurmountable talent gap between him and some of the others. They and most of our other players (non-Brodeur) are capable of putting up good numbers sometimes. None make you believe they can do it consistently. Betley and Goodman are the most likely to make that leap, but they aren't there yet.
Meanwhile, Brodeur just has some physical tools and a motor that is hard to replicate. He is someone who can put pressure on the top Ivy teams and even against major conference teams. We will need a few more such players to help reduce Brodeur's double teams.
I'm hoping that Betley and Goodman make the next step, that Hamilton makes a leap, Woods makes an impact, that our freshman are great, and that we get Matt Cotton and another 3 star recruit. That's all I want this year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-21-17 10:16 PM - Post#233127
In response to Penndemonium
I guess it remains to be seen how Betley plays when teams really focus on taking him away. Things will be harder with him without Howard, too. However, he was the one thing nobody figured out over our late run to the playoffs. He averaged over 18ppg over the last 8. Brodeur was somebody teams took away in the Ivy season. Hopefully, if teams take away Betley, that puts Brodeur back playing like he did OOC.
I'm pretty confident as those guys as two lead players going forward. Need a third guy, presumably one of the freshmen, Woods, or Goodman, to step up and really make us dynamic.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-21-17 10:27 PM - Post#233128
In response to TheLine
I would guess we play a lot of guys early (more than 9). Based on last year, my guess is that we eventually see a core 8-9 as the season rolls on, with some variance in who is in the core depending on matchups.
As we've discussed, there are a lot of possibilities, and it may not be totally intuitive what combination will work best. Playing small with Betley at the 4 could be an offensive bonanza and a defensive nightmare, for example. Readiness of a 3rd big in Simmons could open up a lot of options. Hamilton or MacDonald could play the Howard role as an undersized 4, letting Betley play 2-3. I think we'll see all those guys (and Max) for stretches at the 4. Jones, like Betley, could appear there too, as he at least has some length, though he is slight and doesn't rebound, defend, or jump like Betley.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-21-17 10:27 PM - Post#233129
In response to SomeGuy
I respect Howard as a 4 year solid Quaker, but let's not suggest that he really was anything like a superstar, with under 50% shooting from the field (and an acceptable but nothing special 37% from 3---Penn's greatest weakness last year along with foul shooting) and an unacceptable 60% from the line, including one that cost us a certain win over Princeton. 6.8 rebounds in 30 minutes also is not exactly Oakley inside. Betley was far better offensively down the stretch and Woods should be able to replicate his offensive (12.5) contribution. We should be better than last year and if we are not, we have to look very carefully at the coach (who right now looks like he has rebuilt the vacuum of talent he inherited). But we were lucky to get in the top 4 last year--it should be easy this year.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-21-17 10:46 PM - Post#233130
In response to palestra38
Well, let's look at that for a minute. The rebounding, while not Oakley, was second best on the team. He outrebounded AJ in percentage terms (though it was close). While not an otherworldly number, it was far ahead of everyone but Max and AJ.
On the scoring, sure he could have shot better. But those criticisms are far more true of Woods than they are of Howard. Howard had a 113 ORAT with those numbers you point out. Woods has always been sub 100. So he needs to take more shots and use more possessions than Howard in order to get that 12.5 ppg. He could come back stronger, with a better supporting cast, but if he's just the same guy he was as a soph, he won't be close to senior Howard.
I think Howard was often the key on defense last year. It got better in the 2nd half of the Ivy when Betley and Goodman emerged, but earlier in the year the defense in particular seemed to fall apart without Howard.
On top of those tangibles and intangibles, his positional flexibility and skill set enabled us to find an outside the box optimal lineup. And it helps when guys like Stephens and Towns are in the league presenting size/matchup challenges.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-21-17 11:20 PM - Post#233131
In response to SomeGuy
I'm not suggesting that Woods is the replacement for Howard. However, with Betley playing as he did the last quarter of the season, Goodman as he played the last 4 or 5 games, Simmons and Brodeur not being double teamed, we as a team should be considerably better. The problem by no means was Howard, rather , it was the big minutes by Donahue (terrible 3 point shooting and nothing else), Jones, MacDonald and Woods, which played 70 minutes a game between them. We should be able to significantly improve those minutes, more than making up for Howard's contribution over 30.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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09-22-17 12:58 AM - Post#233133
In response to palestra38
P38
You have missed the point. You are right that more efficient minutes will emerge, helping us overcome some of the offensive production of Howard. The issue is matchups and defense. MH was top 10 in the league in rebounding and could defend bigger wings. We don't have anyone on our team that can guard Seth Towns while getting 16 and 10. Howard did that for us. Donahue won't play 2 bigs unless one of them can guard all 5 spots while rebounding. The versatility of Howard is what we will miss and may not be able to replace in my opinion.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32816
Reg: 11-21-04
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The Core 9
09-22-17 06:09 AM - Post#233134
In response to PennFan10
Obviously, I don't think I have. Simmons has the athleticism and greater size to actually improve us with bigger quicker forwards (you know, the kind Harvard seems to manufacture these days). But far beyond that is that we have the ability to get more minutes out of more better players ---as I pointed out, we got 70 minutes a game last year from guys who I would expect will lose about 50 of those 70 minutes.
And any collection of players can out-shoot last year's team from the line. If we shoot 60% again as a team, I will go crazy.
We should be significantly better than last year, even without Matt Howard. Other than Howard, our best players last year were underclassmen, mostly freshmen at that. Add Woods, who outside of Howard and Hicks probably was Jerome's best recruit. I expect him to be a starter within a reasonable time and be an excellent player at this level. Betley and AJ will improve and they were really good. If we are not as good as last year simply because of Howard's graduation, we have a real problem.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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09-22-17 08:28 AM - Post#233136
In response to palestra38
The FT shooting increasing to the national average would be worth about a point per 100 poss.
Whereas I don't know that the gimmicky zone works without Matt Howard.
Also, for a team built around the three that has struggled in the Donahue era to find players that can shoot the three, sneezing at a guy that shot 2+ points better than the national average is pretty interesting. Based on RPM, Penn's outlook this year is marginal improvement, but RPM is better at the offensive side than the defensive side, so if you believe Howard's departure will leave an outsized hole on that end (as I do), it could leave Penn about even or with a marginal decline.
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