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Username Post: The Core 9        (Topic#20504)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
10-18-17 12:32 PM - Post#234137    
    In response to PennFan10

I also believe that in 2 years, Woods worked on his shot. Easiest thing to do when you have the time. But his ability to break down his man is unmatched on this team.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
The Core 9
10-18-17 12:35 PM - Post#234138    
    In response to PennFan10

I agree about Caleb and Sam.

I agree Antonio's 3-point shooting is less relevant if he's the point but it is relevant if he's the SG.

If Antonio is the point then that means he's beaten out Darnell and Dev - which would be good news but I don't think is likely.

If he's the SG then things get tricky. The PG is going to be someone who's an average or below average outside shooter. So the 3 and 4 both need to be outside shooters. Betley is one. For the other you're either playing AJ or Max as one of the outside shooters, or you're playing Jones/Wood and giving up on defense. All to fit Woods in, who has a track record of being OK but not great. Or Donuhue is thinking about doing it because he is as unsure about the team's depth as I am. While he'd prefer to have 3 guys on the court who can shoot 3's, he is trying to come up a number of options like he did last year because he might not have enough shooters who can also play some defense.


 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-18-17 12:39 PM - Post#234139    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
I also believe that in 2 years, Woods worked on his shot. Easiest thing to do when you have the time. But his ability to break down his man is unmatched on this team.


You are ever the optimist.

Don't get me wrong - it's possible if you have the work ethic and ability of a Zack Rosen. But that's a lot of work ethic and ability, especially when Woods track record is 26%. And I would've hoped someone would be raving about Woods newly found outside shot by now.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
10-18-17 12:45 PM - Post#234140    
    In response to TheLine

I just remember that Woods was the only guy able to play on Villanova's level. I like talent on the court. He's a talent.

 
Penn7277 
PhD Student
Posts: 1365

Loc: Lancaster, PA
Reg: 11-21-04
10-18-17 01:20 PM - Post#234143    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

Damn, you beat me to that question!

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: The Core 9
10-18-17 04:46 PM - Post#234161    
    In response to AsiaSunset

I tend to agree with Asiasunset -- I think big freshman minutes will be a good thing (unless it's because everyone else got hurt). We need one more guy who can carry a usage load with a 110 or higher ORAT. That guy might be among the returnees, but we have enough of a track record to say that he probably is not. The freshmen might just be freshmen, but if there is a Brodeur or Betley in there again, I think that is when the team takes off.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-18-17 06:02 PM - Post#234166    
    In response to SomeGuy

Sorry in advance for a way too long post.

2/3 of minutes projection is easy.

60 minutes split across Brodeur (32 mins), Rothschild (18 mins) and Simmons (10 mins)
Rationale : Donahue has mostly shown reluctance to play two bigs at the same time, but did allow AJ and Max to get some time together at the end of the year. Rumors are that both of them have been working on their outside game. Howard's minutes need to be absorbed and there isn't a like-for-like replacement for him on the current roster. I think Donahue will play sometimes with 2 bigs, sometimes not so I'll split the difference.
Alternatives : Rothschild or Brodeur become a credible 4 and minutes expand. Or not and minutes contract. Simmons is better than anticipated or not yet ready. Jackson is more ready than I think he'll be.

32 minutes to Betley
Rationale : It's comparable to the number of minutes Betley was getting at the end of last year
Alternatives : Only a Betley injury changes this.

40 minutes split across the PGs - Foreman/Goodman/Woods. I think it's ultimately 2 of these 3, with more minutes available behind door #2.
Rationale : It seems the way things are headed. It's possible (likely?) this trio will earn minutes at SG - I'll discuss that below.
Alternatives : Silpe forces his way into the mix. Williams comes back early and is clearly better than the others

The hard part is the remaining 68 minutes. My guess:
20 to J. Donahue/Wood : It's consistent with Donahue's minutes last year. The coach likes him. We need Donahue's 3-point shooting, assuming he can rebound from a subpar Sophomore year. I think Wood is Donahue's primary competition so I'm lumping the two of them together. If either/both demonstrate accuracy behind the arc then this number is going to prove to be low.
10 to Jones : Tall shooter off the bench. Consistent with last year's utilization. Could go up if a lineup like Brodeur, Rothschild/Hamilton/Scott , Jones, Betley, PG proves to work.
15 to Hamilton/Scott/McDonald : Wing defender off the bench. If either can also contribute anything to the offense then more minutes will come. I'm lumping McDonald in here because I think he contributed more to the defense last year than the offense.
10 extra minutes to Foreman/Goodman/Woods - PennFan10 has hinted enough at this. Let's go with it.

13 extra minutes to breakout player. No idea who. Maybe the 2 big lineup works. Maybe P38 is right about Woods, or maybe his concept is right but Goodman is the player. Maybe one of the shooters has a breakout. No matter what, these are the minutes most likely to determine Penn's season. If a breakout player absorbs them then it's good, otherwise it isn't.


 
jmverlin 
Junior
Posts: 218

Age: 35
Reg: 07-18-12
10-18-17 11:13 PM - Post#234172    
    In response to TheLine

A few thoughts to clear some things up in this thread --

Eddie Scott is much better than Tyler Hamilton. He's the future at the '3' for the program, but can play some '4' if the two-big lineup doesn't work out.

Max Rothschild is not suddenly going to become AJ Brodeur. The older guys generally are what they are. Don't expect anything crazy out of them. It's the younger guys that are much more talented.

Antonio Woods is going to be rusty. Some of you guys are talking in here like he's suddenly going to jump back in after two years and be amazing. Don't count on that. Count much more on him having to work his way back in.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
10-19-17 01:06 AM - Post#234176    
    In response to jmverlin

I agree on Eddie. He is taller, more athletic, and more skilled than Tyler.

Max is not a mystery at all. He was on his way to being a double double guy as a freshman when he played. His role last year was to hold down the 5 while AJ rested. He played over 20 minutes once. We don't need him to be AJ. But if we are going to play 2 bigs all the time (an open question but looking likely) we have 40 minutes to fill. As I mentioned Reynolds, Downey and Bruner all averaged between 22-28 min a game last year for Yale. It's not hard to imagine AJ/Max/Jarrod all averaging north of 20 minutes a game (AJ 30+, Max/Jarrod 20-25 each).

AW: Rust will take some time.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32680

Reg: 11-21-04
10-19-17 08:03 AM - Post#234177    
    In response to PennFan10

OK, since I am away this weekend, I'll need some eyes at the Red and Blue Scrimmage, with one of them focused on AW

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-19-17 08:21 AM - Post#234178    
    In response to palestra38

That scrimmage should be on ILDN. C'mon Penn, make it happen!!!

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3578

Reg: 02-15-15
10-19-17 08:33 AM - Post#234179    
    In response to mrjames

MrJ-I'm with you. I watched the Harvard scrimmage on ILDN....it's a great thing for us junkies.

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
10-19-17 08:41 AM - Post#234180    
    In response to mrjames

Agreed!

Looking at the ILN (formerly ILDN) schedule, there are no broadcasts planned for Penn's Red & Blue Scrimmage this Saturday, Cornell's Red & White Scrimmage this Saturday, Yale's Blue Madness next Thursday or Cornell's exhibition against Cortland on November 4th.

If the IL and/or its school's are trying to build some excitement for the upcoming season, they are certainly going about it the wrong way.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
10-19-17 09:25 AM - Post#234183    
    In response to rbg

I don't know for sure but I suspect it has something to do with the fact there are many home contests on Friday night and Sat and only so many resources available.

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3044

Reg: 10-20-14
10-19-17 09:31 AM - Post#234185    
    In response to AsiaSunset

You may be correct.

mrjames will be pleased to note that Yale's Blue Madness has just now been added to the ILN schedule for the 26th.

 
yoyo 
Senior
Posts: 354

Reg: 03-25-09
10-19-17 12:15 PM - Post#234207    
    In response to rbg

looking forward to seeing the incoming class and how much stronger the soph look.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3614
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
10-19-17 02:28 PM - Post#234212    
    In response to yoyo

Agree - really weak showing to not have Penn's Red & Blue Scrimmage on ILDN. I feel like this happened last year also and when I tweeted Penn Athletics then they said they had too many other events (even though I'm sure this would get more viewership).

Kind of sad that they can't plan accordingly or staff up appropriately when the same thing happened last year. Would love to see someone lobby for this!

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-19-17 03:57 PM - Post#234214    
    In response to Mike Porter

I took a look at Rothschild's numbers to get a sense how a "2 big" lineup might work.

On the observational side, Max is a productive back-up. He gets the work done without Penn needing to change it's offensive or defensive scheme - a perfect player to put on the court when Brodeur needs a breather or gets in foul trouble. Looking at the numbers, he has a good 2FG% and is a solid rebounder. He's also improved a bit from Freshman to Sophomore season and from OOC to Ivy games last year - a good sign. Win Shares seems to like his defensive contribution. On the minus side, he hasn't shot 3's. While I get that Rothschild can play under the basket while Brodeur roams outside - and Brodeur is a good outside shooter - a big part of Brodeur's game is his inside game. Other minuses are a poor FT%, a TO rate higher than Caleb Wood's, and a somewhat high foul rate. And who knows whether Rothschild or Brodeur can guard the 4. I know we play a lot of zone but one of them will have to play a different role in the D. Bottom line - Max will need to improve on his weaknesses for this to work.


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
10-20-17 07:13 PM - Post#234288    
    In response to mrjames

The way Penn has gone about recruiting this year suggests they are pretty confident in Williams and Goodman. Seemed like a good year for Ivy PGs, and we didn't seem real involved. I assume we would have been if there was reason to believe Williams' longer term prognosis was questionable.

 
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