PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-16-17 09:35 AM - Post#234032
In response to palestra38
What's the difference between rust and game shape? All I reported on AW was that he was not in fact working much on his game in formal or informal team workouts during his layoff. My reference to "game shape" was more in the context of development than conditioning. Of course a big part of development is getting stronger/more explosive off the court.
I believe he is going to be an impact player for this team this year and it wouldn't surprise me if he was a starter. I agree with Asia that he should be in the mix from day 1. We will get a good look at the state of his game on Saturday at the Red and Blue scrimmage. I expect him to play a lot there.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-16-17 09:38 AM - Post#234034
In response to PennFan10
Game shape reflects the inability to maintain his performance over minutes played.
Rust reflects missing shots or open men that he will hit once he plays regularly.
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Cvonvorys
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Reg: 10-11-06
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10-17-17 04:09 PM - Post#234103
In response to palestra38
In sticking with the "Core 9" theme, anybody want to speculate on the predicted order in most average minutes per game for the "Core 9"?
Here are the stats from last year:
http://www.pennathletics.com/documents/2017/9/1//p ...
Here's my projection/hope:
1) Ryan Betley
2) A.J. Brodeur
3) Devon Goodman
4) Eddie Scott
5) Jarrod Simmons
6) Darnell Foreman
7) Caleb Wood
8) Antonio Woods
9) Max Rothschild
FWIW...
1) As an optimist, my projections are based on what I hope the actual results are, not what I think they will be.
2) I hope the freshmen exceed expectations. Last year no one on this board expected Betley (28.1 mpg) or Goodman (15.4 mpg) or Brodeur for that matter (30.9 mpg) to get that much playing time, right? This team is substantially better (dare I say, competing for the regular season championship) if Scott and Simmons exceed expectations.
2) I hope Wood can overcome some of his liabilities to earn significant playing time.
3) I am keenly aware of a "sophomore slump", but again, this is my hope, which is to say that I hope that both Betley and Brodeur do not fall into that category.
4) I think that Foreman will have a lot of competition for playing time at PG with Goodman & Woods, so I would expect his minutes to drop.
5) I would suspect that if this in the actual order at the end of the year, then barring injury or player academic ineligibility, we've had a great season.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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The Core 9 10-17-17 04:24 PM - Post#234104
In response to Cvonvorys
Unfortunately, that's a minutes distribution for a disaster of a year in which we are eliminated early. Only if we are essentially out of it before it starts will 3 freshmen be among the top 5 in minutes. So I hope you are wrong.
If I were to assign minutes, it would be
Betley--30
Brodeur--30
Goodman--25
Woods--25
Foreman-20
Simmons--20
Hamilton--20
Rothschild--15
Donahue/Jones--15
The other freshman will take away from these minutes as they are ready to play. I see McDonald and Wood as cheerleaders unless there are injuries
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SteveChop
PhD Student
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Reg: 07-28-07
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Re: The Core 9 10-17-17 05:45 PM - Post#234106
In response to palestra38
So you don't see Scott getting significant minutes? That's contrary to almost everything posted so far.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-15-15
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10-17-17 06:08 PM - Post#234108
In response to SteveChop
I would be surprised if Woods plays much point. I think he is going to be an off the ball guard more times than not. Goodman will spell Darnell, who every year we want to limit his minutes and every year they expand. So expect a Darnell, Woods, Betley Guard rotation with AJ/Max/Jarrod predominantly in the frontcourt. Eddie Scott will mix in at the 3/4.
My take based on what I know:
Betley 30
AJ 30
Darnell 25+
Woods 20+
Goodman 20+
Max 22
Eddie Scott 20
Jarrod 18
Caleb/Jones/Jackson 15
Others who may break in eventually:
Jelani
Hamilton
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TheLine
Professor
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Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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The Core 9 10-17-17 07:28 PM - Post#234109
In response to PennFan10
I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm finding it hard to believe a 26% shooter from behind the arc gets half the minutes as the 2-guard on a Donahue team.
I'm guessing JD's minutes will be higher.
Other than that, the numbers seem reasonable.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
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Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-17-17 08:07 PM - Post#234112
In response to PennFan10
Goodman will spell Darnell, who every year we want to limit his minutes and every year they expand.
Maybe we need to give some serious consideration to the possibility that Darnell Foreman is a better player than we think he is?
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PennFan10
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10-17-17 09:07 PM - Post#234113
In response to Silver Maple
I think there is some merit to actually giving Darnell his props.
As far as Woods at the 2 we must remember the 3 pt shot is only one tenet of the Donahue platform. Getting to the basket for layups is just as good as set shot 3. There isn’t a player on the team better at that than AW. Remember AJ is practicing 3s and shooting it well Betley is a monster from the arc. So I expect ball screens by Max w AW getting to rim, kicking to corners or bouncing to Max who can also kick it out well.
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TheLine
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10-18-17 07:58 AM - Post#234121
In response to PennFan10
We're not winning if we're giving 20 SG minutes to a 26% 3-point shooter. Especially when Dev hasn't proved to be an effective 3-point shooter either and Darnell is merely adequate. It puts the offense in the same situation it was last year before Betley came back from injury.
Woods at SG only works if he is proficient at the 3 to keep defenses honest. Otherwise Woods at SG is signalling that there's no better option and that would suck.
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-18-17 10:27 AM - Post#234126
In response to TheLine
Have to agree with the assertion that big freshman minutes would coincide with a lousy record. Anyone remember last year?
Memo to all the Caleb Wood fans - he is a turnover machine and SD has other 3-point options to choose from. I'll give him a nice hand on Senior night, and he gets a Penn degree in the spring. It's all good.
Hamilton's injury is something to watch. I really think he, if healthy, sees the floor quite a bit, especially when the defensive match-ups point that way. Same goes for Jelani. Don't expect to see him much early on, but the staff needs to know if he can play the point and will give him a chance to do so when ready.
We know SD likes McDonald for all the little things he does. He may not have the chip on his shoulder Belcore had, but the comparison is apt. I think he will get some PT.
One note about settling the rotation. The pre-finals schedule will see lots of experimentation as the coaches see what they have right now with Simmons & Scott and Woods in particular. That, along with any injuries will likely point against a set rotation until the Ivy schedule begins. I do hope it goes 9-deep though.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
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Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-18-17 10:32 AM - Post#234127
In response to Streamers
My guess is that C. Wood probably won't play too much this season. However, he's not a dumb guy, and he knows what aspect of his game he needs to fix (it's a triangular pastry, usually filled with fruit) if he's going to get off the bench. If he can do that, he might end up seeing significant minutes, as his ability to hit it from outside makes him valuable. This team does not have an overabundance of good 3-point shooters.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1169
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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10-18-17 10:51 AM - Post#234128
In response to Silver Maple
He needs to fix his hamentashen?
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-18-17 11:24 AM - Post#234129
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
My wife just suggested that he might need to fix his spanakopita.
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4350
Reg: 11-21-04
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The Core 9 10-18-17 11:25 AM - Post#234130
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
"Have to agree with the assertion that big freshman minutes would coincide with a lousy record. Anyone remember last year?"
I don't know. I'm thinking just the opposite. Unless we get significant production from freshmen there is a likelihood that 6-8 or perhaps 8-6 with a few breaks is likely. We lost Howard at the 4. To think that somehow our all too streaky shooters are going to somehow make those open threes more regularly and make us perform more evenly night in and night out is wishful thinking.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-18-17 11:35 AM - Post#234131
In response to AsiaSunset
That's if you think the last 9 game production of Goodman and Betley was a fluke. Otherwise, the 3 sophs with Rothschild, Woods and Foreman should get the most PT. If those guys play up to the level of their last 9 games and if Woods is playing at a level where he would have been projected had he not missed 2 years, we are much better than .500. I hope for major freshman contributions. That would spur us to being competitive for the title.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4438
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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10-18-17 11:52 AM - Post#234132
In response to palestra38
My point regarding the substantial playing time for those two freshmen is that they are deserving of significant minutes. For example, does anybody really think Betley should have played less than Donahue last year because he was a freshman? He played more minutes than Donahue because in my opinion (and apparently SD's opinion) he was the better option. Now how much better a team are we this year if Scott and Simmons are better options? Gotta believe a hell of a lot better... And I hope this team is a hell of a lot better than last year's 6-8 team. Better than an 8-6 team. But it will take contributions from some deserving freshmen for us to be better than 8-6, correct? Or am I missing something here?
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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The Core 9 10-18-17 12:09 PM - Post#234133
In response to Cvonvorys
You are not wrong. Look, if Simmons is the second coming of AJ Brodeur then God bless him and us. I just wouldn't expect it. I expect he will play a lot but in a role. Look at Yale with Jordan Bruner. Kid is a freak and averaged 22 min as a frosh. Blake Reynolds started in front of him and averaged 26. Part of that is Jordan's knee early in the year but a part of that is his development to the college game, which I view as a normal adjustment for most frosh.
Edited by PennFan10 on 10-18-17 12:09 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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TheLine
Professor
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Age: 60
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The Core 9 10-18-17 12:09 PM - Post#234134
In response to Cvonvorys
I'm not counting on huge minutes from the 'shmen. Or that if they do contribute more minutes that it's necessarily a good sign.
Jackson just had a 2 year layoff and has Brodeur/Rothschild/Simmon s ahead of him.
Williams is coming off a major injury. He has Foreman/Goodman/Woods ahead of him. If I'm not mistaken he was a PG in HS so he'd need to learn a new position if he's moved to SG.
PennFan10 is suggesting Simmons is not coming along as quickly as optimistic projections would require. He's also behind Brodeur and Rothschild in the pecking order.
Scott has the clearest path to minutes, especially with Hamilton injured. I may be reading between the lines of PennFan10's comments, but it sounds like Scott is closer to a like-for-like Hamilton replacement than a Freshman breakout star in the making.
There were more early highly optimistic Betley comments last year before his injury.
It's possible either of the 4 suck up more minutes than I think because this team doesn't have much depth.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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10-18-17 12:14 PM - Post#234136
In response to TheLine
And I think Caleb Wood will play because he can flat shoot it. If he plays the role of sharpshooter, he won't be putting the ball on the floor as much so less opportunity for turnover. Different role, hopefully better for Caleb. Jones is in that role too so if one of those guys is hot, expect them on the floor in the corner or on the wing waiting for a kick out from AW.
And I still think AW's 3pt shooting number is pretty irrelevant. He has to take and make a few but his ability to get in the paint and finish is valuable in this system. Have to have shooters on the floor with him though (see above)
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