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Username Post: '17 '18 Ivy Pre-Season Predictions        (Topic#20516)
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 777

Reg: 10-20-14
09-28-17 09:01 AM - Post#233297    

Here are some pre-season rankings and previews for people to view -

Bart Torvik: http://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php?conlimit=Iv...
1. Harvard (#90, nationally)
2. Princeton (#91)
3. Yale (#96)
4. Penn (#156)
5. Cornell (#188)
6. Dartmouth (#251)
7. Columbia (#282)
8. Brown (#317)

Busting Brackets: https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/09/27/ivy-league -...
1. Yale
2. Harvard
3. Princeton
4. Dartmouth
5. Penn
6. Cornell
7. Columbia
8. Brown

College Sports Madness: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/conference/ivy
CSM only previews its Top 144 teams in the nation. While they have not posted the complete league ratings, they have listed its top 3
1. Harvard (#85)
2. Princeton (#94)
3. Yale (#110)

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: '17 '18 Ivy Pre-Season Predictions
09-28-17 03:59 PM - Post#233327    
    In response to rbg

I'm fascinated to see what various previews do with this league this year.

My general takeaways thus far are that Columbia's being serially underprojected and that Cornell is, umm, aggressively projected. HYP in any order makes sense - great arguments to be made for any of the three.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
09-28-17 09:26 PM - Post#233340    
    In response to mrjames

Yale would probably feel dissed here by the two that have them third. They get Mason back, right? Plus the maturation of their freshmen from last year. OK, Downey will be missed, but still...

Whereas Princeton is probably happy to not be picked by anybody to win the whole thing.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3209

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
09-29-17 12:18 AM - Post#233347    
    In response to SRP

Did I not just read that Mason won't be spending his final year of eligibility at Yale?

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1748

Reg: 02-15-15
09-29-17 01:17 AM - Post#233348    
    In response to Silver Maple

Mason has 2 years left. This year at Yale and then to Baylor?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
09-29-17 07:18 AM - Post#233349    
    In response to PennFan10

Correct. This year at Yale. Then he graduates. Grad transfers to Baylor.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 777

Reg: 10-20-14
10-10-17 09:47 AM - Post#233683    
    In response to mrjames

NBC College Basketball Talk:
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/10/...

1. Yale
2. Harvard
3. Princeton
4. Penn
5. Columbia
6. Cornell
7. Brown
8. Dartmouth

The top 3 is the same as most outlets, but it is the first to move Brown off the #8 spot.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 777

Reg: 10-20-14
10-25-17 09:26 AM - Post#234493    
    In response to rbg

Hoopshd.com
http://hoopshd.com/2017/10/24/conference -preview-i...

1. Harvard
2. Yale
3. Penn
4. Princeton
5. Dartmouth
6. Cornell
7. Columbia
8. Brown

Mid-Major Madness
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/10/24/1611564...
https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/10/24/1613889...

1. Yale
2. Princeton
3. Harvard
4. Penn
5. Columbia
6. Dartmouth
7. Cornell
8. Brown

POY: Mason
DPOY: Brodeur
1st Team: Mason, Aiken, Stephens, Brodeur, Boudreaux
2nd Team: Morgan, Cannady, Oni, Betley, Bruner


 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 777

Reg: 10-20-14
10-31-17 03:59 PM - Post#235171    
    In response to rbg

Bleacher Report ranges the Ivy League as the #14 conference in the nation, just below the Missouri Valley Conference and above the Horizon.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2741495-powe r-r...

SI has its ranking of every team in the country:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 17/10/31/n...

1. Yale (#90)
2. Harvard (#114)
3. Princeton (#116)
4. Penn (#135)
5. Cornell (#218)
6. Columbia (#229)
7. Dartmouth (#285)
8. Brown (#309)

College Insider has three teams in its 10/30/17 Mid-Major Top 25:
http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-2...

7. Harvard
19. Yale
21. Princeton

NBC College Basketball Talk's Mid-Major Preseason Power Rankings:
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/30/...

6. Yale
16. Harvard

In its Preseason Mid-Major All-America Team, NBC lists Makai Mason on the Third Team and Bryce Aiken as an Honorable Mention:
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2017/10/30/...

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3209

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
10-31-17 05:18 PM - Post#235190    
    In response to rbg

This is nice to see, but I'm suspicious. I find it a bit hard to believe that there's so little space between Penn and the top three, and even harder to believe that there's so much space between Penn and #s 5-7.

But then I'm just your typical neurotic Penn fan.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18482

Reg: 11-21-04
10-31-17 05:20 PM - Post#235192    
    In response to Silver Maple

Princeton suffered major losses and Penn's best players were freshmen. But it is only a prediction.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
10-31-17 07:31 PM - Post#235195    
    In response to Silver Maple

The space to 5-7 is easier to explain. At least in kenpom, Penn was 171 last year, Columbia 235, and everybody else 263 or worse. So Penn had a big lead, and if you assume that Columbia and Cornell lost more than Penn, you can see how the gap might be a logical conclusion.

The jump to 135, though, might be a tough sell without Howard. And that 171 for last year presumes Penn was better than it's won/loss record.

Princeton is likely to come down some, but if their big 3 stay healthy, I think they are still a top 100 team with a shot to win the regular season.

For,Yale and Harvard, they were ahead of penn last year and seem likely to improve more than Penn (both by stats and eye test).

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-31-17 08:00 PM - Post#235197    
    In response to SomeGuy

So, I've gone back and forth with the SI guys (more before Luke went to the Raptors). The two key areas where their predictions suffer are in assessing mid-major impact talent (normally new) and in measuring defense.

They assess talent on an individual level for newcomers, and they find (accurately), that you only feel comfortable predicting that a newcomer will have an impact when they are Top 100 and only a major one in the Top 25 or 50. A lot of that, though, has less to do with the likelihood that a frosh will produce and more to do with the fact that at the high-major level, it takes that level of recruit to displace kids a high-major program already has from the start.

If they did it on the collective level for mids, what they'd find is that while you might not be able to project individual contributors, you can predict the output of a frosh group with some level of accuracy beyond just individuals from the Top 100.

Princeton is going to be very good this year. Some of that is because it didn't lose nearly as much as it seems. Weisz's actual output was not up to his normal standards (a low 100s ORAT on just over 20% usage shouldn't be too hard for Princeton to replace). Cook was an amazing player, no doubt - and those are the possessions we need to focus on. I have a lot of faith in the class Princeton brought in to be able to eat possessions efficiently.

I have questions about both Harvard and Yale, though oddly my questions aren't the ones that others seem to have. Siyani/Harvard isn't a problem. Neither is Yale's starting frontcourt. I am worried that Harvard won't be able to figure out the 4-spot and 5 rotation and that Yale's bench is weak.

I am appreciative that the bottom teams in the league scheduled like garbage to potentially inflate their W/L to boost the top teams' RPIs. Harvard, Princeton and Yale can all be Top 75 RPI teams, and the league's at large chances would get a huge boost if they all are.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2263

Reg: 11-23-04
10-31-17 09:29 PM - Post#235198    
    In response to mrjames

It was pleasant to note that the IL was only one conference away from an expected two bids. If most of the Ivies play slightly above expectations this season, we can realistically hope the the regular season winner (the TRUE Champion) will receive a bid in addition to the two game tourney winner (if different).

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
10-31-17 10:01 PM - Post#235199    
    In response to mrjames

Agreed on Harvard about Siyani, but only so long as Aiken stays healthy. I'm not sure about the PG depth if they were to lose Aiken.

On the 4/5 issue, it may take time to figure it out. But between Lewis, Welsh, Djuricic, and Baker (who seems like a guy who could take a leap), plus the possibility of just playing small with Towns or Bassey at 4, I think Amaker has lots of talented pieces. Even beyond that Egi has talent, and Perez has shown flashes. I think Amaker'll figure it out.

Where is your concern on Yale's depth? Seems like Oni/Phils/Copeland/Mason through 3 spots is strong, with Monroe playing whatever 5th guard minutes they need. Maybe a guy like Swain can play right away, too.

Up front they may need the freshmen to step up as backups to Reynolds and Bruner (an even better breakout candidate than Baker), but Yess and Atkinson look like great recruits who could contribute right away. Maybe they have to play 4 guards for stretches too, but Oni probably allows them to do that. Plus Yale grows big men on trees.

Agreed on Princeton, generally, but it seems like they have to have the freshmen, so depth seems like more of an issue. With no freshmen, they'd start something like Gladson, Brennan, Bell, Cannady, and Young, and while all of those guys should contribute, I'm not sure about them as a unit together or as the top 5 in minutes. Deeper reserves may be fine, but they feel like a leap of faith -- with Harvard and to an extent Yale, I feel like I have a handle on the guys who would be stepping up. Princeton's best shot is if one (maybe 2) of the freshmen is ready to start immediately (which strikes me as a good bet).



 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
11-01-17 06:32 AM - Post#235200    
    In response to SomeGuy

Princeton's starting lineup and depth looks a lot better when I don't forget Myles Stephens.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-01-17 08:16 AM - Post#235203    
    In response to SomeGuy

On its face, it looks like Yale has 3 efficient scorers that can help it ensure that it has at least 2 on the floor together at all times.

Dig a little deeper, though, and both Makai and Alex are likely due for a regression. Makai took 42% of his shots as 2PT Js and made 48% in his last full season while Alex took 38% of his shots as 2PT Js and made 49%. Now, for Makai, that's not as serious of a concern, because he's a career 36% shooter from 3, meaning that you can't just back off and play him inside the arc. Copeland, on the other hand, shot just 29% from three last year and 16% in Ivy play, and as opponents played him more inside the arc to take away his elite at rim ability, his ORAT cratered (122 on 24% usage in non-conf to 104 on 28% usage in conf play). Now, that's still quite good, but regress the 2PT J make rate and it likely continues to tumble. Then, you have to wonder whether he continues to try to be a high usage, low efficiency guy or can transition to a side option for the two stars (even though side options usually are catch-and-shoot 3 guys, which is the thing Copeland can't do).

I don't love either of those two options for Copeland, and I anticipate, without strong gains in 3PT shooting, that he will struggle a bit and in a way that might hurt the team at times. Not a huge Monroe fan in terms of picking up offensive slack, and we know that Phills isn't out there for that purpose, BUT don't sleep on Azar Swain to be productive off the bench. So, one piece of the Yale depth issues, IMO, is that everyone's prohibitive favorite for 6th man of the year (Copeland) might not be an immediate fit for what they're trying to do.

The other piece is that while I think a frontcourt rotation of Reynolds, Bruner and Atkinson could be one of the best Yale has had, that raises both question marks and known issues. Reynolds isn't a true five and needs rebounding help (difference between him and Downey), but can he guard some Ivy 4s (say Stephens or Towns)? Bruner and Atkinson have great potential, and I'm not betting against them, but you kind of need both to be strong contributors. So, I'm a little concerned about whether the depth will materialize there that will allow Yale to put optimal combinations on the floor.

None of this is to say that I don't think Yale is a Top 100 team. Rather, I just think those that are putting them tops in the league (and some far and away the best) are looking at the ceiling and ignoring the risk.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
11-01-17 07:52 PM - Post#235284    
    In response to mrjames

I would guess that Copeland is Copeland when he is in, but plays more limited minutes. Maybe lets Mason rest while still on the court, or function more as a shooter.

While it seems to me that would work, admittedly they really didn't go that direction when Montague got kicked out. Copeland was sitting there with high efficiency numbers while Phils and a walk-on played Montague's minutes. So you could be right. But I think they find a way to make it work.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 787

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
11-02-17 08:25 AM - Post#235293    
    In response to SomeGuy

I would not be surprised at crunch time if Oni moves to the SF position while Mason and Copeland are in the backcourt. Both Mason and Copeland have the ability to get off their shots one on one which is not typical of most IL players even the really good ones.

Yale has so much talent in the backcourt if, big if, Masom stays healthy. The frontcourt does not have much depth which could present problems especially if Bruner has health issues. Bruner has such ridiculous upside potential based on pure athletic abilities but time will tell if he reaches his potential.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-02-17 09:36 AM - Post#235295    
    In response to bradley

Yale is going to be the ultimate test of whether a highly talented team that can't really shoot the three at heavy volume can win out against other highly talented teams that do, indeed, do that.

I have my doubts. Not that Yale can't be really, really good (Top 100), but that it can outlast two other teams (Harvard and Princeton) that play a more stylistically-efficient brand of basketball.

 
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