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Username Post: 17-18 Season Previews        (Topic#20537)
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-07-17 11:38 AM - Post#233572    

https://www.sportsaction.io/blog/college-basketbal ...

http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/10/4/ivy-pre vi...

Two detailed Ivy previews have been posted, so thought I'd get discussion going here on the Tigers' 17-18 outlook. Both previews pick Princeton 3rd, with one taking Harvard at 1 and the other taking Yale at 1. I expect that most projected standings will look like one of those two.

The second link goes quite in depth on the Tigers rotation this year, projecting Gladson and the freshman Much to join Bell/Cannady/Stephens in the starting lineup. Will be interesting to see who steps up outside of the core 3, lots of unproven guys in the group of possible rotation players.

Both articles picked Stephens for 1st team all-Ivy and mention him as a top candidate for both POY and DPOY

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 515

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: 17-18 Season Previews
10-08-17 07:00 AM - Post#233578    
    In response to jadwinjungle

It is understandable that the Tigers are picked third based on the graduation of Weisz and Cook. Stephens, Cannady and Bell are obviously the core but others will have to step up. Post-season IL Tournament may give Henderson some time to figure it out how to mix and match for a weekend tournament but Harvard and Yale will be very tough.

I would not be surprised if the season comes down to the health of Mason and Bruner although it appears that Mason had a second surgery this summer which is not a good thing. If you look at what teams added or graduated from last year, no one is close to Yale as to additions if Mason returns healthy. The anticipated improved play of the Harvard frosh may well offset the return of Mason but no one has the skills of Mason at crunch time if healthy. Could be a toss up for league title and God knows about the Tournament.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
10-09-17 02:57 AM - Post#233587    
    In response to bradley

I like Yale a lot even without Mason. My guess is Jones will get them to be tougher defensively and on the boards this season and I expect Bruner to really step it up, Harvard could be very good IF they can replace Chambers at PG, Aiken will have to change his game a lot to take over that role, I think Yale will again match up better against Princeton than does Harvard.

Princeton will have to figure out how to play without Weisz. Last season, especially during their long winning streak, his penetrating passes to the wing from the middle or crosscourt were the main method the Tigers used to break down defenses and create room for an open jumper or a driving lane, They could go more traditional Princeton this season with Gladson or Stephens passing out of the high post. It would help if Bell can have a consistent season and if Cannady is able to drive and finish more. An immediate shot in the arm from one of the freshmen would be great, but I think Brennan could contribute a lot (think Will Barrett) if allowed to play as a stretch four instead of a center, at least on the offensive end.

Defensively the Tigers will need their post guys to play tougher--Miller did a lot to contain opposing bigs. Cook was a strong defender and rebounder and Weisz snagged a lot of DRs too. Freshman Deroiser has the look of a guy who could D people up, but we''ll see. Sophomores like Aririguzoh should get a chance to earn minutes if they are good defenders.

 
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-13-17 07:09 PM - Post#233955    
    In response to SRP

http://goprincetontigers.com/news/2017/10/12/mens- ...

This season will feature a behind the scenes series called "Hard Cuts: A Season Inside Princeton Basketball" that will debut new episodes every Tuesday at noon ET

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
10-14-17 09:39 PM - Post#233984    
    In response to jadwinjungle

Hope that title is prophetic. We could use more hard cuts.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 515

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
10-17-17 08:17 PM - Post#234114    
    In response to SRP

Many good points regarding the Tigers. It will probably take some time to put together an effective rotation with returning players, i.e. Brennan,Young, Aririguzoh and others competing for minutes with the freshmen to basically fill minutes from Weisz and Cook's departure as well as some minutes from Miller.

Based on the first three games -- Butler, BYU and St. Joes's, Coach will have to heavily rely on Stephens, Cannady and Bell in the early going. Stephens will have to take another step forward offensively even from last year. Cannady needs to hit 3s' after receiving dish out passes from Bell going to the hoop.

It would be interesting to get input from fans as to what rotation Henderson will probably settle on.


 
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-17-17 11:23 PM - Post#234118    
    In response to bradley

I think Bell/Cannady/Stephens are locked as starters and 30+ minute guys. I think for the opener Gladson and Brennan will start along side them, with Young, Much, Desrosiers, and Ariruguzoh as the main contributors off the bench. Would not be surprised if Much or Desrosiers started at some point but I can't predict them to start without seeing them face collegiate competition yet.

Young is a very capable shooter off the bench and plays pretty good defense, so I think he'll be the primary guard off the bench. Besides him, I'm not sure who the wing options off the bench are. Morales, LeBlanc, and Reynoso-Avila played sparingly last year. Maybe Schweiger cracks the rotation? Tough to figure out.

Weirdly enough the bigs feel more known even though they didn't produce much last year. Gladson is a pick and pop threat (needs to make more), Arirguzoh is raw but plays solid defense and seems athletic, and Brennan is athletic and a decent shooter who needs to avoid foul trouble. At least one will need to be consistent for the Tigers to be successful this year I think.

By league play my predicted lineup is Bell/Cannady/Stephens/Des rosiers/Gladson, with Much, Brennan and Young as the primary bench options

 
Tiger81 
Freshman
Posts: 92
Tiger81
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-18-17 05:48 AM - Post#234120    
    In response to jadwinjungle

That makes sense to me but based on in-coming hype I'm assuming Much has the edge over Desrosiers (who looks like a beast in yesterday's new hoops video). I don't recall Coach Henderson playing Brennan at the same time as Miller/Gladson last year so my guess is that one of the frosh forwards becomes a starter to open the season. The x-factor for this year's team may be Aaron Young, along with the development of the rookies. Ryan Schweiger is also intriguing.

Starters:

- Gladson
- Stephens
- Much
- Bell
- Cannady

Subs:

C: Brennan, Aririguzoh
F: Desrosiers, LeBlanc, Bramlage
G: Young, Morales, Schweiger



 
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-18-17 12:29 PM - Post#234144    
    In response to Tiger81

Towards the end of last year MH's favorite crunch time lineup seemed to be Bell/Cannady/Cook/Stephen s/Weisz, which had the ability to switch everything and create matchup issues on offense. I wonder if he'll be looking for a similar lineup this year, perhaps with Much and Desrosiers in with Bell/Cannady/Stephens, or even Young (although that would be a quite small lineup)

For me the biggest question will be the contribution of the seniors. We (think we) know what we'll get from Bell, but what can Young, Brennan and LeBlanc bring this year? None have gotten major playing time, and LeBlanc has seen the least of the group, but I think the Tigers will need them to step up this year

 
westcoast 
Freshman
Posts: 52

Reg: 03-08-16
10-18-17 01:45 PM - Post#234146    
    In response to jadwinjungle

Some comments from Coach Henderson in the preseason media call. He seems to have high expectations for Much and Desrosiers.

http://www.goprincetontigers.com/news/2017/10/18/m...

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4224

Reg: 11-22-04
10-18-17 06:12 PM - Post#234168    
    In response to Tiger81

Does a Penn fan's guess carry more or less weight? I think the starters after Stephens Bell and Cannady are either Gladson or Brennan at center, and either Desrosiers, Much, or young at the other spot. Based on last year, I think Henderson prefers to play small with Stephens and Bell rather than big. Just a guess though -- Henderson has both employed a 4 guard approach with the small lineup last year and a 4 forward approach a few years back. So he could theoretically go very big or very small. But I think my guess above is most likely.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
10-18-17 06:43 PM - Post#234170    
    In response to SomeGuy

I think this group will figure out ways to score even against solid defense. They have a lot of guys who can pass, shoot, and dribble, they'll be unselfish and move without the ball, and the Big 3 at least can free themselves or make a tough shot much of the time, if necessary. It's just a question of getting down the rhythm of each player's best moves and how much they want to go old-school vs. the more compressed, drive-oriented attack they showed last season.

I'm not so sure how well they'll stand up defensively, both first-shot and in terms of defensive rebounding. They could be fine, especially if the freshmen turn out to have the knack and the mentality (plenty of athleticism there), but I feel like Bell needs to find his inner Mike Connelly Jr. and Cannady needs to find his inner Steph Curry (wouldn't mind that at either end, actually). Stephens covers a multitude of sins, but we have a lot of opponents with multiple scorers and passers at the guard position, and somebody has to stay in front of the Copelands and Masons and Aikens, not to mention the non-conference players PU will face.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 515

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
10-18-17 08:25 PM - Post#234171    
    In response to jadwinjungle

One concern may be the guard play behind Bell and Cannady. It will be tough to put either Young or Morales on the floor with Cannady when Bell rests or has foul trouble based on height and skill sets. I actually give Morales the edge over Young as Young seems to have defensive lapses and is really a one dimensional offensive player.

As to center, Henderson likes Goodsen but I would not be surprised if Aririguzoh and/or Brennan get a shot for playing time.

As to forward, thank goodness that the Tigers have Stephens and probably one or two of the freshmen share the other forward position.

One good thing offensively is that Stephens and Bell can get off a shot one on one when the clock is winding down.

I think Stephens, Cannady and Bell get 32-35 minutes and all other minutes will be a function of who performs best over time.

 
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-18-17 10:35 PM - Post#234174    
    In response to westcoast

Interesting that MH says Much is more ready for the college game than he expected. Perhaps points to Much being a better candidate for the Butler starting lineup than I was originally thinking

 
jadwinjungle 
Freshman
Posts: 13

Age: 19
Reg: 10-02-17
10-22-17 07:41 PM - Post#234346    
    In response to jadwinjungle

Ken Pomeroy has released his preseason rankings. I don't have a full account so I can't see projected records and win probabilities, but he has the Tigers at #88 in the country, 2nd in the Ivy. Here's the whole league

#84 Yale
#88 Princeton
#110 Harvard
#144 Penn
#211 Columbia
#213 Cornell
#235 Dartmouth
#285 Brown

In the non conference the Tigers have 6 top 100 games: at Butler (42), BYU (72), at St. Joe's (66), at Miami (27), at USC (12), and Middle Tennessee (92), with more possible in the Hawaii tournament.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 515

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
10-23-17 07:19 PM - Post#234446    
    In response to jadwinjungle

KenPom rankings suggest a very challenging start with Butler, BYU and St. Joe's. KenPom has all three teams ranked higher than Torvik's projections. I know someone that had lunch with Martelli and he was optimistic which is unlike him as he tries to manage expectations -- he has a talented squad with upperclassmen returning from injuries. Two out of the first 3 games are on the road as well.

Overall Ivy rankings are not that much different than at the start of last year so let's see if the Ivy League really improves from last year. Non-conferece results will tell the story at the end of the day.

Harvard's ranking at 110 is rather surprising. It suggests that some are not buying the hype or it is simply a function of experience level. Once again, time will tell.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 202

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
10-25-17 10:12 AM - Post#234525    
    In response to bradley

Yale is easily the best team based on returning personnel. Mason is an obvious POY candidate and the losses to graduation are not crippling. Harvard's success depends upon Aiken learning to play a more complete game. He can't beat everyone by himself, although he seemed to want to try. the Tigers lose Weisz and Cook. How do you replace THAT! Expect Princeton to struggle early, but find their rhythm in February. Should get into the tournament with 9-5.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2082

Reg: 11-23-04
10-25-17 10:04 PM - Post#234636    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Don't want to tempt fate, but I'm not sure why everyone is so overwhelmed by Mason. I realize that he had a stunning game in Yale's NCAA opener. But, he's coming off an injury and 2(?) surgeries, not especially big for a guard, and everyone in the League will have him well scouted. He may be great. But, I'll stick with Stephens, Canady and Bell.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4863

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-26-17 07:36 AM - Post#234647    
    In response to Tiger69

The injury point is fair - no telling how he'll come back game-shape-wise, but pretending like he's getting notoriety for one NCAA tournament game is crazy. His number four comp for his entire sophomore year was Damian Lillard and his other comps were good, high-major players.

Now, I do tend to think that some people are looking way to far past Princeton, which people believe lost a lot more than it actually did...

 
whitakk 
Sophomore
Posts: 152

Age: 26
Reg: 11-11-14
10-26-17 11:30 PM - Post#234711    
    In response to mrjames

Who's the last player who came back from an injury as a worse player?

We've seen cases of further injuries (Brase, Koon, Rosenberg, Mullins a little bit). But when injured players have been back on the court, they've been their old selves (Miller, Maldunas, Rosenberg, Mullins, Chambers...).

Not to say it couldn't happen to Mason. It's just surprised me how well everyone has bounced back.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4863

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-27-17 07:02 AM - Post#234721    
    In response to whitakk

I guess I'm not thinking about it as much as being an explicitly worse player (to some extent, selection bias takes care of that - if you feel like you're going to be worse, you just never return). I think it's a fair concern to consider that missing time right up to the start of the season, and then trying to get familiar with a new cast of characters will just slow him a bit to start. Especially when you add in a back strain right before the season tips.

I don't know that there's a huge sample of stars getting injured to think through the ones that didn't return the same, but there certainly have been players who had injuries derail their potential. A guy like Kenyatta Smith comes to mind, who ultimately decided not even to take his post grad year after injury. Hunter Myers tried to return a bunch but never could.

I think Makai will be just fine, but I guess I understand if people want to point that out as a potential risk factor to hitting lofty expectations.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 202

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
10-27-17 09:33 AM - Post#234770    
    In response to mrjames

Not unhappy that people are looking past the TIgers. The losses are huge; the question is whether the production can be replaced. I don't see a Weisz or a Cook among the returnees nor is it reasonable to expect the freshmen to play at such a level right away, especially in an improved League 1 through 6,at least. But the goal is to reach the tournament and the Tigers should be very good by March. What a year this will be !

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
10-27-17 12:35 PM - Post#234823    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

One optimistic offensive scenario not involving freshman magic is that last season Cannady was deferring a lot and not getting in rhythm but that he will explode now (including on drives), Stephens is ready to put in a Wesley Saunders-like two-way performance, and Bell can play like the second half of last season or better. That would take much of the pressure off of replacing Weisz's point-forward role and Cook's scoring contribution .

A different optimistic offensive scenario is that the Tigers can rededicate to using backdoor cuts in combination with the three-point game to wrongfoot defenders (ironically, I've seen NBA teams doing this stuff more in the last few years than I have the Tigers--when the Celtics stole that playoff game last season from the Cavs after Thomas got hurt, Avery Bradley looked like he would have fit right in with Kit Mueller and company). It seemed like last season they relied heavily on athletic ability or mismatches to get good looks inside, and that worked pretty well at times, but there was a lot of tentativeness (and turnovers) on cuts to the basket.

I still think that defense could be the area where the team has to make the biggest adjustment, especially if freshmen play significant minutes.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2082

Reg: 11-23-04
10-27-17 08:25 PM - Post#234870    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

"But, the goal is to reach the Tournament ..."

(Sigh), I was afraid that the idiotic Tournament would make us think like this. I still value the Ivy regular season Championship more than a chance to go one or two games against large conference jock palaces. The treatment of Ivy champs in most recent years has demonstrated, I believe, that the NCAA will always under seed our single representative to get rid of it as soon as possible. We merely reinforce this behavior by possibly sending some weekend wonder like a certain team that will once again draw home court advantage.

 
rbg 
Masters Student
Posts: 454

Reg: 10-20-14
11-06-17 08:56 AM - Post#235494    
    In response to Tiger69

Here are some additional Princeton previews:

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2017/11/34-teams-in-3 4-d...

http://ivyhoopsonline.com/2017/11/05/interview- wit...

http://www.nj.com/times-sports/index.ssf/2017/11/p...

http://www.trentonian.com/article/TT/20171102/S POR...

https://bustingbrackets.com/2017/10/26/princeton- b...

http://thetimes-tribune.com/sports/hs-basketball- p...

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16416

Reg: 11-21-04
11-06-17 09:14 AM - Post#235495    
    In response to Tiger69

Seems to me that certain Ivy teams other than Princeton have gotten to the Sweet 16 in recent years. So maybe the seeding issue is not a conspiracy as you suggest.

I agree with you that we should not have a tournament. But we do and it isn't going anywhere.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
11-06-17 02:19 PM - Post#235532    
    In response to palestra38

Busting Brackets had this:

"Primarily a bench player last season, Bell operates as a 3-and-D player. He’ll switch on defense with Cannady to guard the opposing ball handler because of his 160 pounds, but nonetheless is a quality defender."

Huh?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
11-06-17 02:21 PM - Post#235533    
    In response to palestra38

Busting Brackets had this:

"Primarily a bench player last season, Bell operates as a 3-and-D player. He’ll switch on defense with Cannady to guard the opposing ball handler because of his 160 pounds, but nonetheless is a quality defender."

Huh?

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2082

Reg: 11-23-04
11-07-17 12:03 AM - Post#235565    
    In response to palestra38

I have no problem with the Tournament as I believe I have previously indicated. My objection is that the NCAA bid is not guaranteed to the regular season champ. If/when we get a second bid, then give it to the Tournament Champ. Hopefully, this issue may become academic with the rising status of the IL. But, never underestimate the greed of the "power" conferences in clinging to the money by either excluding worthy mid-majors, under seeding them, or matching them off against each other in early rounds.

 
Tiger84 
Freshman
Posts: 17

Age: 55
Reg: 03-06-17
11-09-17 12:56 PM - Post#235746    
    In response to SRP

3-and-D:

Most of the offensive contribution is spotting up for 3s, and is a stopper on defense.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3145

Reg: 02-04-06
11-09-17 12:58 PM - Post#235747    
    In response to Tiger84

Bell is the best dribble penetrator on the team, posts up smaller guards, and weighs a lot more than 160 pounds.

 
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