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Username Post: Ivy AI        (Topic#20542)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-11-17 02:37 PM - Post#233801    
    In response to palestra38

I understand that you don't think it's true, but in practice, FA reads are more complex than your income and trying to reduce a school's read to just that is silly.

FA reads are incredibly complicated and include income, investment assets, savings, real estate, number of other kids in college, etc. Each school independently assesses how much each impacts ability to pay. If your point is that HYP consistently give more favorable reads across all of those dimensions, then that's incorrect. If your point is that HYP give better reads across certain dimensions, worse across others, but tend to give more favorable reads than other Ivies on average, that may very well be true.

But this sort of reminds me of statistical and economic significance. Just because we can prove something is statistically different from zero doesn't mean its magnitude matters for what we're talking about.

Blaming FA for Penn's recent struggles might be convenient, but it's not accurate.

 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 751

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
10-11-17 02:55 PM - Post#233803    
    In response to mrjames

Nobody has pointed to recent women's recruiting. Princeton has been bringing in high level, now top 150 recruits, for a good while & Harvard has joined them in the last couple of years. Mike McLaughlin has been competing very well for top talent, thank him very much & has the highest rated player in the incoming class. While I think that H/Y/P have some institutional advantages, the biggest hurdle that Steve Donahue & his staff have is probably the dismal record since 2007. Not only are Corky Calhoun, Ron Haigler & the final four team meaningless to recruits; but so are Allen & Maloney & the Dunphy years. We're going to have to have a sharper eye for talent that will develop(e.g. Betley) and the local awareness (at least Philly area & North Jersey & DC kids know what the Big 5 is or can see it at the St. Joes game) to get competitive. Nationally, right or lucky evaluations are necessary. Mike did find Alyssa Barron & Syd Stipanovich & get them to come to Penn. If Steve can do the same & we win one title, the advantages of the best facility, excellent training facilities & an exciting rising city can do the rest to restore the program.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19003

Reg: 11-21-04
10-11-17 03:45 PM - Post#233814    
    In response to mrjames

I didn't blame FA for Penn's 10 year trek through the desert. Their recruiting is on a serious uptick. But it's willful blindness to pretend that we have a level playing field in the Ivy League. Penn, which is 5 times larger than Princeton and has a smaller endowment simply is not on a FA level playing field with Princeton. Of course, the Harvard and Yale endowments dwarf Princeton's. So it doesn't matter what the individual student can get after all is said and done---on the face of the matter, the coaches at HY and Pr are reasonably certain they can offer just about anyone who otherwise cannot easily afford to pay a free ride and the others cannot. Historically, Penn and Cornell, in particular, could reach well below Harvard and Yale to get students H and Y could not admit. Your prior coach moaned about that all the time.

Look at it this way-James Jones struggled for years at Yale, having one co-title to show for his first 12 years, in which he won more than 15 once. He has won more than 18 5 of the last 6. Did he suddenly become a coaching genius? The Amaker winning years at Harvard started 2 years earlier. Did Harvard stay with Sullivan for 16 years because he was a terrible coach?

Princeton was walking in the darkness for 5 years before they suddenly started bringing in 20 win seasons at the same time as Harvard's ascendance.

So what do you attribute for the fact that the 3 schools who have dominated the Ivies since about 2008 have significantly upped their FA during this period to a level not capable of being matched by the others? Sure, there are other factors but IT IS NOT A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD and the advantages of the others in admissions criteria has been whittled away to almost nothing.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-11-17 04:46 PM - Post#233820    
    In response to palestra38

Ah, the old ice cream consumption leads to shark attacks logic...

Penn's not losing kids to Yale because Yale's offering better FA packages.

EVERY Ivy has benefited from expanded financial aid. That's why the talent in the league is better across the board. Some Ivies have leveraged the expanded FA better than others. Some had the right coaches in place to catch the wave and ride it in. Others were struggling to find the right coaching fit at the time and missed the wave and now are trying to find another one to catch up.

Coaching turmoil both at the top and with assistants is deadly when recruiting is heating up. If you want to know why Harvard fell from its perch, take a look at when its turnover occurred and what those related classes have produced. Last year, Harvard's 2013, 2014 and 2015 recruiting classes combined for 4.9 win shares. Its 2016 class produced 11.1 alone.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19003

Reg: 11-21-04
Ivy AI
10-11-17 04:57 PM - Post#233822    
    In response to mrjames

You have to tie the timing of what happens with coaching instability to the HYPr recruiting run (which I know you agree with). During this period, only Cornell and Dartmouth had a vacancy. I have long believed that the worst aspect of the Jerome Allen hiring was that the assistants who were passed over would not stay--and when they left, he was exposed. But Donahue has had a stable coaching staff for 3 years--so why suddenly is he having trouble recruiting? Your logic is just as much correlation over causation as mine. So I'll believe that the FA is a factor, since it has gone way up, especially during the relevant time period for the same 3 that are now succeeding.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-11-17 05:03 PM - Post#233824    
    In response to palestra38

As Josh has already said - Penn shot the moon with this class and didn't land anyone. It was a strategic choice, and it didn't pay off.

Steve's recruiting had been getting better each year until he decided to roll the dice with this class.

 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 751

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
10-11-17 05:24 PM - Post#233826    
    In response to mrjames

Turned out to be a losing gamble; but w/the quantity as well as quality of the last two classes, I think it was a good bet to make. Having 2 to 4 decent but not great players to go along w/ the 15 or so players on the roster who are equally or more highly considered is no addition. Of course they have to nail the 2019 recruiting class with real quality.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19003

Reg: 11-21-04
10-12-17 09:04 AM - Post#233836    
    In response to section110

Who knows, there always may be a transfer lurking

 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 751

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
10-12-17 09:10 AM - Post#233837    
    In response to palestra38

Your lips to God's ear.

 
Bears03 
Freshman
Posts: 59

Reg: 02-23-12
Ivy AI
11-07-17 03:23 AM - Post#235567    
    In response to section110

I’m all for leveling the playing field, but to identify the problem we may want to hear what they are. It would be really interesting if a journalist talked to every ivy mbb recruit over the past 10 years to find out what the top factors were in their decision.

How many were influenced by FA? How many even knew what their AI number was, and did that prevent them from particular schools? The perceived ability to get immediate playing time or to win a championship? Facilities, city/rural, academics, other?

And then what would be really interesting is to find out why ”gettable” recruits chose non-Ivy’s. I’m guessing that answer is much more unanimously scholarships. No algebraic formulas necessary to know their cost is $0.

Absent any of that information, I’m in the camp that Ivy’s should allow scholarships, but retain and level the AI across all schools to maintain the academic integrity of the league.

Edited by Bears03 on 11-07-17 03:27 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-07-17 09:04 AM - Post#235569    
    In response to Bears03

I can’t speak for myriad recruits over the past decade, but I can tell you this:

There were a LOT of quality players that went non-Ivy due to financial aid not being full or near enough to full for the family’s liking. There were even more that were lightly pursued or ignored due to likely being full ride players.

The AI will always be limiting and require some juggling, but I’d wager that coaches would rather have full scholarships than even go back to the AI of 15 years ago (169).

 
hoopsfan 
Masters Student
Posts: 530

Reg: 12-26-04
11-07-17 10:09 AM - Post#235577    
    In response to mrjames

I believe if you asked Ivy coaches for one step they'd take to improve their recruiting and that of the conference, allowing for scholarships would be the overwhelming choice.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1825

Reg: 02-15-15
11-07-17 11:45 AM - Post#235591    
    In response to hoopsfan

I would love to see the league go to scholarships. It would propel us to a top 10 league and regular 2 bid league almost instantly I would argue. Without it, we can get there but the path is longer and more circuitous

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3449

Reg: 11-23-04
Ivy AI
11-07-17 11:52 AM - Post#235593    
    In response to hoopsfan

The AI isn't really an issue to the recruit like FA is, either he qualifies or he doesn't. But the AI does limit the pool of recruits and HYP, because they usually win the head-to-head recruiting battles with the other 5, are advantaged. Football has an AI Banding factor which doesn't seem to have helped the inequality very much. Certainly scholarships would help in recruiting against non-Ives and Ivy Coaches would all be in favor of them.

Edited by Old Bear on 11-07-17 11:55 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2273

Reg: 11-23-04
Re: Ivy AI
11-07-17 04:07 PM - Post#235615    
    In response to Old Bear

Well, OB, the Republicans (God ,to think I started off life as one of them!) are bringing you some good news with their ...uh ... Tax Plan. Among other things, it taxes the earnings on the endowments of the filthy rich institutions like hyP, thus reducing the funds that they waste on providing financial aid to the sons and daughters of those folks not clever enough to be millionaires. Perhaps, this is their ingenious way of helping to level the playing field among the Ivies between the "haves" and the "have nots". BOOLA BOOLA!

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3716

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
11-07-17 04:57 PM - Post#235618    
    In response to Tiger69

Does that help when Columbia consistently earns more on their endowment investment than Harvard? Probably YP as well though I'm too lazy to check.

The new tax plan also takes away the tax deduction for paying for college so there's that too.


 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2273

Reg: 11-23-04
11-07-17 05:26 PM - Post#235625    
    In response to TheLine

Yes, if Columbia earns more $ on its endowment. But, I expect (hope) that this populist provision will disappear from the Bill when the 'Pubs figure out another way to offset the giveaways to their wealthiest supporters.

 
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