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Username Post: Red & Blue        (Topic#20569)
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
11-03-17 02:37 PM - Post#235426    
    In response to AsiaSunset

I'm sure this is something we could quickly quantify. However, my guess is the opposite -- I think for non-freshmen ORATs trend down a bit in conference. For AJ, it could be that he hit the proverbial freshmen wall, but it also could be that OOC opponents tend to play us more straight up, while Ivy opponents know what you do and try to take it away. AJ is a wonderful player, but if you pack it in, get physical, and converge on him with 2-3 guys when he gets the ball, his effectiveness is going to go down.

There are other Ivy teams where this has happened. Columbia got strong team and individual performances OOC during the Smith years that didn't hold up in conference. My memory is that Harvard has had some guys have the same issue during the Amaker years.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
Red & Blue
11-03-17 03:02 PM - Post#235429    
    In response to SomeGuy

ORAT better in Ivy play last year (overall vs. Ivy in parens)
Rothschild (92.6 vs. 95.0)
Donahue (98.3 vs. 103.7)
Goodman (90.4 vs. 100.8)
Foreman (101.1 vs. 103.7)
Wood (91.1 vs. 105.5)
Jones (118.8 vs. 140.2)


ORAT better in OOC play last year
Brodeur (103.2 vs. 95.7)
Howard (113.0 vs. 106.0)
MacDonald (105.9 vs 100.7)
Hamilton (87.3 vs. 82.2)

I'm not including Betley (117 for the season, 115 in conference).

A better player should be lifting up the efficiency of teammates so Betley's addition likely provided a slight ORAT help to all.



Edited by TheLine on 11-03-17 03:29 PM. Reason for edit: Added ORAT data for all, added Hamilton

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: d & Blue
11-03-17 03:20 PM - Post#235431    
    In response to TheLine

Yeah, TheLine, I used Hamilton instead of Wood since Hamilton played in the last game which makes it 5-4 and then Betley would be the 5th. I already wrote this upthread.

Now Asia should do it for Princeton or Harvard or Yale for 2017 or Penn 2016. Otherwise stop making an ungrounded assertion.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
11-03-17 03:28 PM - Post#235432    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Updated. Sorry if this is a repeat.

We got a bunch of guys hovering close to averageness, including Brodeur who I think will have a bounce up. A couple of breakouts are needed.

Jones has an absurdly high ORAT which is why some of us want to see more of him.


 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: d & Blue
11-03-17 05:11 PM - Post#235437    
    In response to TheLine

Yes

Well as I said before Brodeur definitely fell off, Howard was sick for part of the Ivy schedule and had a couple of total wipe-out games, McDonald's role dramatically changed and he was reduced from a primary player at the beginning of the season to a guy with a very limited role and Hamilton played about 6 minutes a game, often in garbage time. You can't use the last two to support any argument.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
Red & Blue
11-03-17 05:33 PM - Post#235438    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Any real team improvement in conference would be mostly attributable to Betley.

Also 80% of the minutes were 6 guys, 3 of whom were risers, 2 were decliners, and Betley. Next two were Rothschild (slight gainer) and Jones (strange rise but in limited minutes).

I forget what this was about though.


Edited by TheLine on 11-03-17 05:41 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: d & Blue
11-03-17 06:05 PM - Post#235439    
    In response to TheLine

It was about the trend of individual ORATs improving in the second half of the season at least players in our league

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
11-03-17 06:16 PM - Post#235440    
    In response to AsiaSunset

Ah, yes.

That used to be true when the quality of the league wasn't as good as it is now. Nowadays, I think league play is on par with the OOC schedule and there isn't much of a difference. I also agree with SomeGuy that OOC teams played us much more straight up while Ivy teams were keying on Brodeur.

The quality of coaching in the league is also much better than it was 5-10 years ago. The defenses that Ivy teams play are more sophisticated. The Friday-Saturday road schedule also wears you down more.



 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
11-03-17 08:22 PM - Post#235446    
    In response to TheLine

why did matt howard decline two years in a row? he wasn't sick both years.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
11-04-17 07:38 AM - Post#235455    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Jeff - I'm not sure. Just eyeballing his stats, it may be because his three point shooting dropped off. Maybe it's because Antonio Woods wasn't playing

That team seemed to trail off at the end of the Ivy season. They lost their last 4 games. Howard may have been the problem, but more likely he was affected by overall lackluster team performance. Mike has spreadsheets. He could provide the actual details.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-04-17 10:33 AM - Post#235457    
    In response to AsiaSunset

You can see the table of offensive rating for qualified players from 16-17 in the non-conf and conf. The table is sorted by biggest decline to biggest rise.

The summary stats are these:
On average (mean), ORAT declined in conference play by a trivial amount (-1.0). The median difference was +0.2, which is just as trivial. The 25-75th percentile was -10.8 to +8.05.

My overall assessment is that 16-17 offensive rating was flat in the non-conf vs. conf.

I can look at other years, but just wanted to pull that one quickly.

Player Team NCORAT CFORAT DIFF
Darryl Smith COR 130 93.9 -36.1
JoJo Fallas COR 108.6 73.2 -35.4
J.R. Hobbie BU 152.5 119.9 -32.6
Alex Copeland YALE 122.3 103.8 -18.5
Steven Cook PRIN 131.7 113.8 -17.9
Corey Daugherty BU 108.9 91.6 -17.3
Brandon Anderson BU 105.1 89.3 -15.8
Mike Smith COM 114.1 98.5 -15.6
A.J. Brodeur PENN 111.2 95.7 -15.5
Anthony Dallier YALE 113.2 98.3 -14.9
Matt Howard PENN 119.1 106 -13.1
Bryce Aiken HAR 113 101.5 -11.5
Jordan Bruner YALE 114.2 103.1 -11.1
Spencer Weisz PRIN 113.4 102.5 -10.9
Nate Hickman COM 104.4 94.1 -10.3
Wesley Dickinson DART 113.9 104.8 -9.1
Guilien Smith DART 105.9 96.9 -9
Chris Lewis HAR 120.9 112 -8.9
Tavon Blackmon BU 110.4 102.4 -8
Travis Fuller BU 111.7 105.1 -6.6
Luke Petrasek COM 114.3 109.4 -4.9
Quinton Adlesh COM 105.9 101.8 -4.1
Joshua Howard BU 109.6 105.8 -3.8
Blake Reynolds YALE 112.7 109.6 -3.1
Troy Whiteside COR 104 101.1 -2.9
Ian Sistare DART 90.4 89.7 -0.7
Devin Cannady PRIN 122.6 122.6 0
Matt Morgan COR 111.1 111.5 0.4
Wil Bathurst COR 99.9 100.6 0.7
Josh Warren COR 102 103.3 1.3
Trey Phills YALE 105.4 107.3 1.9
Jeff Coby COM 101.7 103.8 2.1
Brendan Barry DART 124.9 127.4 2.5
Mike Fleming DART 116.2 119.9 3.7
Miles Wright DART 89.9 93.8 3.9
Siyani Chambers HAR 109.2 113.6 4.4
Miye Oni YALE 107.9 112.4 4.5
Darnell Foreman PENN 97.9 103.7 5.8
Robert Hatter COR 92.7 99.9 7.2
Jackson Donahue PENN 96.4 103.7 7.3
Steven Spieth BU 111 119.3 8.3
Corey Johnson HAR 113.4 122.2 8.8
Jake Killingsworth COM 99.6 110.8 11.2
Stone Gettings COR 90 102.2 12.2
Evan Boudreaux DART 93.1 105.8 12.7
Sam Downey YALE 113.3 126.7 13.4
Seth Towns HAR 95.4 109.3 13.9
Obi Okolie BU 94.1 108 13.9
Caleb Wood PENN 89.5 105.3 15.8
Justin Bassey HAR 118.1 134 15.9
Myles Stephens PRIN 102.5 119.9 17.4
Zena Edosomwan HAR 96.6 117.2 20.6
Devon Goodman PENN 78.6 101 22.4
Amir Bell PRIN 76.7 126.5 49.8

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-04-17 02:58 PM - Post#235463    
    In response to mrjames

Took a look at 14-15 and 15-16 just to be sure, and the results are basically the same. For 14-15, the mean change between conference ORAT and non-conf ORAT for a player is -0.3 and the median is +0.7. The 25-75th percentile change was -8.7 to +10.1. For 15-16, the mean change was -0.8 and the median was +0.6. The 25-75th percentile change was -8.9 to +5.3.

There's no reason to believe that a player's offensive rating will necessarily improve in conference play versus the non conference.

14-15
Player Team NCORAT CFORAT DIFF
Darryl Smith COR 113.3 64.6 -48.7
Robert Hatter COR 110.3 86.2 -24.1
Alex Mitola DART 125.2 106.2 -19
Steven Cook PRIN 118.3 101.4 -16.9
Greg Louis PENN 101.8 85.1 -16.7
Shonn Miller COR 115.6 99.9 -15.7
Mike Auger PENN 107.9 92.9 -15
Connor Boehm DART 109.1 94.3 -14.8
Cedric Kuakumensah BU 111.5 96.8 -14.7
Matt Townsend YALE 112 99 -13
Isaac Cohen COM 125 114.4 -10.6
Tony Hicks PENN 99.8 89.2 -10.6
John Golden DART 99.3 89.7 -9.6
Kyle Castlin COM 120.9 112.5 -8.4
Darien Nelson-Henry PENN 99.6 91.2 -8.4
Kevin Crescenzi DART 97.5 91.4 -6.1
Javier Duren YALE 114.6 108.7 -5.9
Makai Mason YALE 114.4 108.9 -5.5
Tavon Blackmon BU 100 95.4 -4.6
Malik Gill DART 104.6 100.5 -4.1
Sam Jones PENN 112.8 108.9 -3.9
David Onuorah COR 82 81.1 -0.9
Jeff Coby COM 93.9 93 -0.9
Chris McComber COM 101.5 101.4 -0.1
Wesley Saunders HAR 112.7 112.7 0
Corbin Miller HAR 112.7 112.9 0.2
Devin Cherry COR 87.8 88.9 1.1
Hans Brase PRIN 108.3 109.7 1.4
Steve Frankoski COM 112.2 114.2 2
Jack Montague YALE 95.1 97.3 2.2
Cory Osetkowski COM 96.7 99.7 3
Antonio Woods PENN 93.5 96.8 3.3
Spencer Weisz PRIN 107.6 111.1 3.5
Agunwa Okolie HAR 96.7 101.6 4.9
Maodo Lo COM 115 120.1 5.1
Gabas Maldunas DART 94 99.1 5.1
Steven Spieth BU 95.6 101 5.4
Galal Cancer COR 97.1 106.5 9.4
Amir Bell PRIN 101 111 10
Clay Wilson PRIN 112.9 123.1 10.2
J.R. Hobbie BU 108.9 119.1 10.2
Rafael Maia BU 103.5 113.7 10.2
Darnell Foreman PENN 74.9 85.5 10.6
Jonah Travis HAR 118.4 129.2 10.8
Miles Wright DART 98.3 110.3 12
Matt Howard PENN 98.9 111.3 12.4
Pete Miller PRIN 88.9 102.6 13.7
Armani Cotton YALE 100.9 115.5 14.6
Siyani Chambers HAR 92.3 107.4 15.1
Steve Moundou-Missi HAR 90.7 111 20.3
Justin Sears YALE 96.7 119.6 22.9
Ben Hazel PRIN 77.7 120.4 42.7

15-16
Player Team NCORAT CFORAT DIFF
Corbin Miller HAR 107.6 76.9 -30.7
Jason Massey BU 108.9 82.1 -26.8
Troy Whiteside COR 98.9 77.8 -21.1
Luke Petrasek COM 122.9 105.7 -17.2
Evan Cummins HAR 114.4 97.6 -16.8
Robert Hatter COR 102.7 86.4 -16.3
Jordan Abdur-Ra'oof COR 90.1 79 -11.1
David Onuorah COR 94.3 83.3 -11
Patrick Steeves HAR 107.8 97.6 -10.2
Nick Victor YALE 117.1 107.4 -9.7
Connor Boehm DART 114.7 105.3 -9.4
Makai Mason YALE 113.8 104.5 -9.3
Henry Caruso PRIN 128.2 119.5 -8.7
Kevin Crescenzi DART 104.9 96.3 -8.6
Devin Cannady PRIN 135.9 129 -6.9
Zena Edosomwan HAR 103.6 96.9 -6.7
Alex Rosenberg COM 115.7 109.7 -6
Matt Howard PENN 111.1 105.7 -5.4
Tommy McCarthy HAR 97.1 92.8 -4.3
Maodo Lo COM 116.5 113 -3.5
Amir Bell PRIN 109.2 106.4 -2.8
Anthony Dallier YALE 105.1 102.8 -2.3
Jake Silpe PENN 90.6 90.2 -0.4
Evan Boudreaux DART 111.6 112 0.4
Corey Johnson HAR 102.7 103.5 0.8
Kyle Castlin COM 101.3 102.4 1.1
Grant Mullins COM 125.9 127.5 1.6
Darien Nelson-Henry PENN 107 108 .7 1.7
Tavon Blackmon BU 105.1 107 1.9
Cedric Kuakumensah BU 102.4 104.4 2
Steven Spieth BU 112.5 115.2 2.7
Matt Morgan COR 108.7 111.6 2.9
Spencer Weisz PRIN 119.6 123.3 3.7
Justin Sears YALE 115.6 120.3 4.7
Darnell Foreman PENN 92.1 96.9 4.8
Miles Wright DART 100 105.1 5.1
J.R. Hobbie BU 116.2 121.9 5.7
Malik Gill DART 79.7 86 6.3
Sam Jones PENN 106.2 113.3 7.1
Darryl Smith COR 127.3 136.7 9.4
Jackson Donahue PENN 104 115.3 11.3
Max Rothschild PENN 82.8 96.8 14
Taylor Johnson DART 103.8 117.9 14.1
Steven Cook PRIN 105.2 120.9 15.7
Agunwa Okolie HAR 99.9 116.7 16.8
JoJo Fallas COR 92.6 114.2 21.6
Brandon Sherrod YALE 108.1 133.4 25.3
Pete Miller PRIN 95.2 122.2 27


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
11-04-17 03:06 PM - Post#235464    
    In response to mrjames

So the most improved ORAT for each of the last few seasons played for Princeton. And there was another Tiger in the top five in all but one year (Miller was sixth once), too. Curious.

 
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