Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Red & Blue
11-02-17 10:40 AM - Post#235311
In response to TheLine
This Wood/MacDonald thing is a great point. I hope but am skeptical of the improvement P38 expects of Woods. But who cares? The Non-conf season is irrelevant and Woods will sink or swim. If he sinks, Donahue has shown he's willing to replace as needed assuming a frosh or someone else has emerged.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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11-02-17 10:46 AM - Post#235313
In response to Jeff2sf
I agree, Jeff. I trust Donahue will sort things out by December. It's good that he says positive things about players, much better than the past two administrations.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Red & Blue
11-02-17 10:50 AM - Post#235314
In response to TheLine
Woods' assist rate was higher than Foreman's when they played together and Foreman's equivalent rate was achieved with a far better offensive team. Apples to Apples, please
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Red & Blue
11-02-17 11:00 AM - Post#235319
In response to palestra38
We're talking about a 11-17 team vs. a 13-15 team. ORAT last year was 102.6 vs. 100.1. Yes, last year was better but let's not make it out to be crap talentless team vs. good team because that's not true.
In 2015-16 Woods assist rate was 22.5. Foreman's was 22.6. What am I missing?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 11:13 AM - Post#235323
In response to TheLine
Try using 14-15 instead. That's the big difference. I throw out a 10 game disaster where the guy didn't show for finals. You seem to think it is indicative of his ability.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Red & Blue
11-02-17 11:18 AM - Post#235324
In response to palestra38
Great, so we throw out the stats where he was basically the same player. ok. this is so dumb of you. You're acting just like that guy who posts on the off topic board, you know the doddering old racist. Except you're not talking about race. But you're better than this.
except when you're not.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 11:24 AM - Post#235325
In response to palestra38
It's funny that you throw out the "10-game disaster" now, because it includes one of the only two games that you claim to look at.
In a situation like this, I throw out the stat sheet except as to look at his best performances (22 pts on 9-15 shooting against Temple; 18 pts on 7-12 shooting against Villanova) and ask whether a superior athlete with a year and a half to do nothing but improve his game was likely to do that.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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11-02-17 11:30 AM - Post#235326
In response to palestra38
I think it's an issue that Woods followed a promising but not great Freshman year with a worse year, yes. He also missed the past year and a half. He doesn't get a mulligan for that as you want to give him.
The one year I can compare Woods and Foreman - apples to apples as you say - is that Sophomore year. It's the same team and they both had a chance to run the offense. It's fair.
But hey, if you want to compare Woods Freshman year to Foreman Sophomore year, you're talking about Woods getting an extra assist about once every ten games. That's not so meaningful.
We'll see in a couple of weeks.
It does touch my heart that you and Colin are agreeing.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 11:38 AM - Post#235327
In response to mrjames
True. I already acknowledged that. But I think it reinforces what I am saying--you are dealing with numbers that are so skewed by a combination of great and terrible performances that I don't see how you can claim a mean is reflective of his ability.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Red & Blue
11-02-17 11:48 AM - Post#235328
In response to palestra38
I agree a greater number of games would be better.
Your argument however boils down to whether the numbers are a better indicator of ability or your say-so is.
I'm encouraged by Woods' preseason and him starting is a rational decision given the alternatives but for gosh sakes, doesn't he have a lot to prove before he's anointed as some sort of savior? I'd like for him to prove he's the best guard on the team first.
Edited by TheLine on 11-02-17 11:49 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 11:52 AM - Post#235329
In response to TheLine
Wait a second--I never annointed him as savior--I just said he is our best chance to compete with the kind of guard talent we face in the League.
And I don't argue with the numbers. I say his best games are a better gauge of his ability than his mean numbers.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 11:54 AM - Post#235330
In response to palestra38
True. I already acknowledged that. But I think it reinforces what I am saying--you are dealing with numbers that are so skewed by a combination of great and terrible performances that I don't see how you can claim a mean is reflective of his ability.
In that respect, Woods is like most other players. There are very few players (especially in the days of high-variance, three-point shooting) that can consistently produce a similar efficiency rating across all games.
While it's important to know if a player's performances are fat-tailed or not (i.e. they tend more toward the extremes versus the mean than the average player), that's a different question that whether the mean is an accurate representation of performance.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 12:05 PM - Post#235331
In response to mrjames
Yes, but Foreman is incapable of putting up the kind of performances that Woods did against Villanova and Temple. So I'm looking at what I perceive to be a significantly higher ceiling and not enough of a sample to know one way or the other whether he can get close to that ceiling on a regular basis.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 12:17 PM - Post#235333
In response to palestra38
Yes, but Foreman is incapable of putting up the kind of performances that Woods did against Villanova and Temple. So I'm looking at what I perceive to be a significantly higher ceiling and not enough of a sample to know one way or the other whether he can get close to that ceiling on a regular basis.
FWIW, Foreman has been a game MVP at KenPom (best combination of production and efficiency of any player on the floor from either team) 4 times. Two of those were last year @Princeton and @Yale. Woods has been a game MVP twice, including once in his throwaway season.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32978
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: d & Blue
11-02-17 12:35 PM - Post#235334
In response to mrjames
I believe that. That does not contradict what I said about ceilings
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AsiaSunset
Postdoc
Posts: 4373
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-02-17 01:13 PM - Post#235340
In response to palestra38
This is kind of interesting. i accept Mike's statement that the most important variable in basketball today is 3 pt attempts. I accept this although that variable is not a component of offensive or defensive team efficiency ratings. It obviously impacts those ratings as points scored is a very important number. But - clearly the higher your number of attempts and the higher the % you make, the more points you score. The same holds true for free throw attempts.
So - I started looking at the Ivy league numbers from last year and was surprised that the undefeated Tigers took more 3 pointers than us (maybe 2 more per game) and hit a higher % than us, but scored the same amount of points/gm. They took close to the same number of shot attempts per game as Penn. That didn't seem right but evidently they converted a lower number of two pointers.
Yet - they beat everybody and had the widest variance between points scored and points allowed.
So - I looked at the defensive side. Tiger opponents took far fewer 3 point attempts than Penn opponents and converted a lower % of them. Importantly the Tigers were the best defensive team in the league, some 11 points a game better than us. So it got me thinking. Is the real road to improvement taking and making more threes or getting out on shooters and almost inviting the ball below the arc. It's obviously a combination, but maybe the primary improvement from this year's Penn team can be achieved by defending differently.
Just saying....
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-02-17 01:15 PM - Post#235341
In response to AsiaSunset
Yes, Asia, that's the space part of Pace n Space. Chase people off the 3 point line, have a rim protector to avoid easy layups and then let everyone take inefficient two point jumpers.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-02-17 01:37 PM - Post#235345
In response to AsiaSunset
Is the real road to improvement taking and making more threes or getting out on shooters and almost inviting the ball below the arc. It's obviously a combination, but maybe the primary improvement from this year's Penn team can be achieved by defending differently.
Bingo. Welcome to the party. Beers are in the fridge!
https://twitter.com/ivybball/status/92605 972480988... (read down in this thread)
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 366
Reg: 03-25-09
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11-02-17 01:39 PM - Post#235346
In response to mrjames
this thread exemplifies how bad we need the season to start.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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11-02-17 01:54 PM - Post#235351
In response to yoyo
LOL
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