Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



 Page 4 of 22 « First<4567>» Last
Username Post: Red & Blue        (Topic#20569)
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
10-23-17 05:03 PM - Post#234433    
    In response to penn nation

No idea. He was 2/3 Saturday. Is that statistically significant sample size?

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
10-23-17 05:47 PM - Post#234438    
    In response to PennFan10

He was 8 for 19 last year. Which, sadly enough, was tops on the team as a percentage.

But hey, if he can hit 2 threes a game I think our team benefits in a lot of ways.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-23-17 05:53 PM - Post#234439    
    In response to PennFan10

I get trying Antonio at the 2 given the other options. I like that it's possible Antonio earns the trust. This team certainly needs a breakout or two besides AJ and Ryan being well above average / All Ivy caliber + Foreman being a capable PG. My takeaway from Josh's scrimmage article on the always great COBL site is that there are a number of players who could make a step up in their game. It's a better position than we've had in a while.


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
10-23-17 11:22 PM - Post#234450    
    In response to mrjames

To me, Mike's stats kind of get to the crux of this. If, like Foreman, Woods can cut out the 2 pt jumpers, he will become a far more efficient player. I'm not totally sure P38's eyes are right (I don't think Woods was actually getting to the rim more often than Foreman statistically as a soph, though he may have looked better when he did it, and he did put the ball in the basket a higher percentage of the to,e when he got there). But if they are, and Woods cuts out the 2 pt jumpers, he'll more or less become the player P38 envisions. My only concern is that I think he was a lot further from being that player than P38 realizes. Hopefully, he turns into that player, and I'll happily give P38 credit for calling it.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3765

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
10-23-17 11:28 PM - Post#234451    
    In response to SomeGuy

That's a good way of thinking about it. I'll add that, based upon what I know about Steve Donahue and his current approach, that's almost certainly what he's going to tell Antonio to do. If Antonio is coachable and does as he's told, he'll probably play, and probably be at least reasonably effective. If not, he'll spend most of this season picking splinters out of his behind.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
10-24-17 08:21 AM - Post#234454    
    In response to SomeGuy

Interesting discussion we had on this 2 years ago right before Woods was suspended. You were pretty (albeit not unreasonably) optimistic about him. Actually, I think you saw his stats as I do back then.

http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/1...

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
10-24-17 09:18 PM - Post#234483    
    In response to palestra38

I said that I thought he was trending up and would ultimately have a positive ORAT. Note that that statement is saying that, at the time, he did not have a positive ORAT. I wrote that after the Temple game. His next four games ended the upward trend.

I do think he would eventually have become a 100 ORAT player, just as Foreman has. The odds of getting significantly above that, at least in the short term, are significantly harmed by the time off.

In addition, back then, Woods with his 95ish ORAT was one of our better players -- he had to play even if he didn't improve his efficiency. Now, we have options if he sticks down around that old level.

All that said, I am hoping he has a 115+ ORAT with a high usage rate and we win a whole boatload of games.

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1878

Reg: 11-29-04
10-24-17 10:55 PM - Post#234486    
    In response to SomeGuy

I don't see why many prefer to have a two guard lineup of Foreman and Woods. Woods seems much more of a PG in terms of handle and skillset. A starting lineup of Foreman and Woods as the two guards seems to be compensating for not having a true PG by starting two halves. Unfortunately there's not a lot of shooting in that pair. While both have some skills and capability individually, it would be a pretty disastrous pairing IMO.

I understand everyone's concerns about hoping for too much from Woods. That said, I don't think our team will reach a new level without great guard play. We are all banking on him because PG has not been a team strength for a long time. Foreman has improved a lot but has limited upside. He has an OK handle, OK shot, OK vision, and OK defense - but is not a standout in any of these areas. We're ready to anoint Woods, Goodman, or Williams in the hope that one of them will become a breakout all-ivy type of player. Williams looked like he had the talent, but the injury and the fact that he hasn't played a college game yet makes him a wildcard.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
10-25-17 08:44 AM - Post#234489    
    In response to SomeGuy

Had he had a 100 ORAT with that dreck of a team, he should be far better with the current talent. Remember, he had the responsibility of taking the 2 point jumper as the shot clock expired. I am assuming that he neither will have that responsibility nor will we be in the position to need it nearly as often. What he does well is exactly what this team needs---a guard who can beat his man off the ball and finish. He was a 4 assist a game player with no one to pass it to. That should increase to 5-6, anyway with the options to give it to AJ or Betley or one of the shooters if they are in the game.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-25-17 09:01 AM - Post#234490    
    In response to palestra38

He didn't have a 100 ORAT because he can't shoot the ball. The remainder of his contributing stats were fine. While you can argue that he'd have had a higher assist rate surrounded by guys who could finish, I'd feel better about that argument if he at least posted the highest assist rate on the team (i.e. was doing the best with what he had of anyone on the team). He didn't. Jake Silpe did.

If I have time, I'll dig through my PBP database to see when in the shot clock his two point Js were taken, but I think the bailout talk is tenuous, especially when he played his freshman year as NOT the bailout guy (Hicks was) and yet across both years he had roughly the same style and efficiency.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
10-25-17 09:11 AM - Post#234492    
    In response to mrjames

His numbers were very similar to Zack Rosen as a freshman. Obviously, shooting can improve, and Zack had much better players around him (when they weren't injured), with 3 players who scored more than he did as a freshman, despite playing over 30 minutes a game.


I understand how you can say that his freshman stats (I throw out the soph stats as he knew he was gone the last 4 games he played and had no heart in it) suggest weaker performance than I expect. But I think you put far too much stock in them given how bad the team was and given his potential for improvement. Compare Antonio's numbers as a freshman with Matt Howard, and they are pretty close. Still, I find it interesting, however, how much you seem to care about this Penn player---you really seem to need for him to fail to support your view of predictive statistics.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
Red & Blue
10-25-17 09:30 AM - Post#234494    
    In response to palestra38

Looking at Foreman's advanced numbers vs. Woods' - they are eerily similar except that Foreman is a better shooter. Foreman used to be a poor shooter also but he improved markedly last year.

Woods has to get his FT% up if driving to the hoop is his primary contribution to the offense. He also needs to improve on his 3FG%. If he can do that he'd be in Foreman's range of effectiveness. Then there's the issues Penndemonium raised - you're essentially playing with 2 guys who have a PG skill set with neither likely to be a standout. We're likely staring at a somewhat poor man's version of the Racine-Arnolie pairing. Though Dev Goodman seems more similar to Arnolie.

Freshman Zack Rosen isn't a good comparison. Zack raised his game a ton Sophomore year, Woods didn't. Rosen was a very good FT shooter, Woods isn't. Rosen's 3FG% while not good was a step up from Woods. Zack's Freshman numbers were across the board better.

And that's ignoring the fact that Woods hasn't played competitive basketball in 1 1/2 years.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
10-25-17 09:30 AM - Post#234495    
    In response to palestra38

I can only answer for myself as I'm not half the analyst Mike is.

You write in a style that is very grating to those of us who work in analytics. You ignore very basic principles of analytics (i.e. I'll ignore the stuff that doesn't support my theory in favor of that which does). You might as well tell a Christian that Jesus was just a carpenter's son. Now you may not believe in analytics. That's fine (I mean it's not fine but whatever). But don't act mystified when you deliberately poke a person in the eye.

I have to fight every impulse to root against Antonio because of the way you write about him. As I had to with Justin Reilly. If you simply said "man, he's fast and exciting, I love watching him and hope he can contribute", I wouldn't say boo. It's when you connect it to "he's fast and exciting and therefore he's great" that people get upset.

Also can you point out where he know for four games that he wasn't going to be academically qualified?

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
Red & Blue
10-25-17 09:36 AM - Post#234496    
    In response to Jeff2sf

I know you'll root for Woods anyway. He's a good story - a kid who was recruited just as much for football as basketball, committed fully to basketball and exceeded expectations, then worked himself back after his fall. That's easy to root for no matter what.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
10-25-17 09:39 AM - Post#234498    
    In response to TheLine

I will root for him just as I've rooted for every Penn player, even old so-and-so. It won't be as easy as it should be.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-25-17 09:41 AM - Post#234499    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Belcore? That was the most fun I've had on this board.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: d & Blue
10-25-17 09:42 AM - Post#234500    
    In response to TheLine

Wait a sec---Zack's freshman numbers were across the board better? Where do you get that?

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/zack-...

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/anton...

Please tell me what significant difference there is, other than FT shooting. Antonio played against a tougher schedule his freshman year too (not that either was so great).



 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
10-25-17 09:49 AM - Post#234501    
    In response to palestra38

I actually did take a look at Antonio's numbers during his sophomore season versus Zack's in his sophomore season. What jumps out naturally is Zack's 3 point shooting which was over 40% while Antonio's was under 30%. That's significant; nevertheless, in other respects he measures up very well and this is not insignificant. This is especially important since Antonio seemed to be getting better as the season progressed and we are comparing him with the full season Zack was able to enjoy.

Clearly we need an improved Darnell Foreman and an improved Antonio Woods; but, if others are on the court we need the good stuff that Goodman displayed last year minus the not so good stuff and Jackson Donahue can't shoot 30% from 3 point range and Caleb Wood needs to take better care of the ball.

So - there are reasons to think improvement is a real possibility but it is yet to be seen.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
10-25-17 09:50 AM - Post#234502    
    In response to palestra38

Rebounds. Assists. Steals.

You also buried the lede. Rosen got much BETTER Sophomore year. Woods got worse.

I'll repeat what I said above - if Woods raises his game he'll be as good as Foreman. Not Zack.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 32685

Reg: 11-21-04
Red & Blue
10-25-17 09:51 AM - Post#234503    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Any analyst worth his salt acknowledges the limitations of his data. You consistently do not. We see time and time again freshmen who significantly improve over time as they grow into adult bodies and work on their game. In the past, freshmen at Penn hardly played. Woods was a kid thrown in as a starter on a terrible team that was falling apart at the seams. His numbers showed that he was able to score at a clip equal to Zack as a freshman, got 4 assists a game despite not being the prime ballhandler and had occasional games (Villanova, Temple) where he broke out. Yet you want to define his game 100% by his very limited body of work so far, using his mean scores in various categories as predictive of what he has the potential to do.

Don't you think there is a better chance that he shows major improvement in his numbers given the superior options he will have and his 2 years of growth and increased strength than playing at his freshman level? Who doesn't improve from his freshman year? And for the argument that he has missed 1.5 years, redshirts happen ALL THE TIME and players usually are better, not worse after the redshirt.

But stop thinking this is about YOU. It isn't. Woods is a superior athlete who was a major recruit for Penn. The fact that Donahue has signalled that he will get major PT gives some indication that the coach thinks he is a player who can make a major contribution notwithstanding some quality recruits. Now let's sit down and see.

As to your last question, after he would have gotten his grades (starting 12/19), Woods had 7, 17 (on 6 for 15 shooting in a terrible game against Drexel) 0 and 7 points. He was much worse after that Temple game where he scored 22 before finals.

Edited by palestra38 on 10-25-17 09:58 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
 Page 4 of 22 « First<4567>» Last
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

12198 Views





Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.196 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 12:43 AM
Top