cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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10-23-17 01:00 PM - Post#234394
We debut at 211, 5th in the IL, just above Cornell at 213, but far behind Penn at 144. Yale 84, Princeton 88, and Harvard 126 lead the way.
The projection for the year is 12-15, 6-8 in IL. Note that we are suppose to lose 6 of the first 7 games, all of which are on the road, including the first against Villanova, by 26 points.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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10-23-17 01:12 PM - Post#234398
In response to cc66
correction to the above: Harvard is at 110.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-23-17 01:13 PM - Post#234399
In response to cc66
Columbia is far more fairly judged at KP than at Bart Torvik's site. This makes far more sense than the 280s that Bart had.
That 144 for Penn seems high. Not ridiculous, but high...
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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10-23-17 02:04 PM - Post#234405
In response to mrjames
Yes, it sounds as if Torvik completely discounted the first years.
If Faulds comes on like many talented bigs do by the the beginning of the Ivy season, then our interior defense will tighten up considerably (KP has us at DRAT 103, up from last year, but still not very good), and we might pull out one or two extra wins. As to Penn, I was thinking closer to KP 175.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-23-17 02:25 PM - Post#234410
In response to cc66
Technically, he has you guys even on defense (marginally worse on rank) than last year (he reset his efficiency baseline to 101 from the 104-105 that it's been recently).
But yeah... I have Columbia's incoming class as the most productive on an expected Win Shares basis over four years of any 2017 cohort. Still less than half the expected win shares of the Harvard 2016 cohort, but strongest of this year, nonetheless. Would expect production out of that class that Columbia is not currently being credited for.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2967
Reg: 03-02-08
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 10-23-17 04:49 PM - Post#234431
In response to mrjames
And we were picked for 7th or 8th in football. I guess that’s why we play the games. The buzz I am getting is that Mike Smith is poised for a monster sophomore season. See, e.g., one Josh Wainwright.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2173
Reg: 02-14-06
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10-23-17 06:13 PM - Post#234440
In response to Chet Forte
How could a Columbia wide receiver (Ronald Smith) end up with a broken jaw without a penalty being called on the defender?
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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supporting evidence on Smith
10-23-17 07:24 PM - Post#234443
In response to Chet Forte
http://www.gocolumbialions.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB...
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6404
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-23-17 11:46 PM - Post#234452
In response to mrjames
Apologies if I am repeating myself here, but Columbia is complicated for this type of prediction this year. They have enough returnees that you could see how one could ignore the freshmen entirely and fill the available minutes. If your model presumes that, though, Columbia would appear likely o get worse. Statistically, they lose 3 of their top 4 players by ORAT, and they lose 2 of the guys with their top 4 usage rates (both with decent ORATs. So you could easily look at Columbia, replace the departing efficient guys with less efficient players who are already in the rotation, and end up with that 288 ranking.
Obviously, the freshmen could understandably be presumed to be better than the returnees in terms of ORATs, which could significantly change the analysis.
Cornell is the opposite-- the loss of Hatter gives his high usage low ORAT possessions to more efficient guys off the bench, so they are presumed to improve in some models.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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10-24-17 05:25 AM - Post#234453
In response to SomeGuy
It would hardly be an Ivy season without uncertainty about the EnigmaLions. Usually this lasts well into the season.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2173
Reg: 02-14-06
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10-27-17 03:39 PM - Post#234848
In response to SRP
I feel that Mr. James has it right--this year's freshman class will be very productive.
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nycivybball
Pre-Frosh
Posts: 5
Reg: 12-16-16
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10-29-17 05:14 PM - Post#234936
In response to Columbia 37P6
Stopped by practice the other day. Guys are playing really hard. Engles seems to emphasizing defense and playing at a faster pace. Smith and Castlin looked really good. Adlesh and Tape look like they're ready to take on bigger roles this year.
With the freshmen, Gabe Stefanini and Jaron Faulds seemed the most comfortable. Hard not to like Stefanini's game.
Injury wise, Shane Eberle was out with a knee problem. Doesn't seem too serious. Jake Klores is out recovering from shoulder surgery. Doesn't know if he'll be ready to play this season or not. CJ Davis was not at practice
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internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3400
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-29-17 07:58 PM - Post#234939
In response to nycivybball
Read somewhere that Davis is out for the year, will stay in school.
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internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3400
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-29-17 08:26 PM - Post#234941
In response to internetter
Spec:
Basketball’s junior guard C.J. Davis is out for the year after suffering a stress fracture in his back a season ago.
Davis was a highly touted recruit for former head coach Kyle Smith, and has flashed signs of his potential at the point guard position, but last year, struggled to get consistent minutes under current head coach Jim Engles. He saw action in 24 games last season, averaging 3.4 points per game and played in 32 games as a first-year.
Davis has suffered injuries in the past, according to Engles, having played through a stress fracture last season.
“He kept saying his back hurt and that pain was going down his leg, but he kept playing,†Engles said. “He toughed it out for the year.â€
As Davis has decided to remain enrolled at Columbia while he recovers this year, he will lose a year of athletic eligibility according to the Ivy League regulations. He faces a similar challenge that senior guard Kyle Castlin experienced last year when he missed the entire season to recover from a toe injury.
“When we found out exactly how serious the injury was, it was tough, because he had to make a tough decision,†Engles said. “Hopefully, he’ll be able to progress naturally and be able to get on the court at some point over the summer and be back with us next year.â€
ally.mcdonough@columbiaspectat or.com |
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LionFan
Senior
Posts: 398
Reg: 11-07-06
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10-30-17 09:21 AM - Post#234969
In response to internetter
Seems to me the key issue is among the bigs. Not only does Engles have to find a couple of centers from among Tape, Faulds and Eberle, he also has to find a backup for Meisner at the forward spot. I don't see anyone other than Brumant on the roster for that position. The 6'10" plus kids aren't fast and quick enough to fill the spot effectively. And everyone else other than Brumant seems to be a guard/wing or point guard type. Is there someone I'm overlooking? And has Eberle improved enough to be in the mix this year? His big body could be very helpful.
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hoopsfan
Masters Student
Posts: 644
Reg: 12-26-04
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10-30-17 10:50 AM - Post#234997
In response to LionFan
You have hit on a good question. I would not be surprised under some circumstances to see Myles Hanson play the 4.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2173
Reg: 02-14-06
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10-30-17 10:51 AM - Post#234998
In response to LionFan
Myles Hanson is listed at 6'6" 215 so he clearly can play up front. Although Rodney Hunter is only 6'5" he's strong and athletic and therefore quite capable of playing the forward position. I agree with you that the key issue is the development of the bigs, but we have known that all along. Our rebounding and interior defense has been bad for years so the change in personnel is bound to be an improvement. Hopefully, the mindset of the newcomers is to play tough underneath.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2967
Reg: 03-02-08
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 10-30-17 04:35 PM - Post#235061
In response to Columbia 37P6
Last year Rodney’s issue was his shooting. Has he improved in that regard?
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2967
Reg: 03-02-08
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10-30-17 04:54 PM - Post#235066
In response to Columbia 37P6
Last year Rodney’s issue was his shooting. Has he improved in that regard?
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2173
Reg: 02-14-06
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10-30-17 06:33 PM - Post#235072
In response to Chet Forte
I assume he has improved his outside shot, but his skills set last year was clearly that of someone who should be playing near the basket. We need to remember that although Hunter was a sophomore last year, essentially it was his freshman season as he did not play on the varsity his first year at Columbia. I would not be surprised at all if he becomes one of our best players this season and next.
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