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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: 2016-17: Offensive Rating By Type of Possession        (Topic#20627)
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-03-17 03:33 PM - Post#235433    

Bringing this over here from the Penn thread... I went back through last year's PBP data and pulled together the offensive and defensive ratings for each team based on the type of shots they took (or allowed) on each possession. (Note that these are raw efficiency ratings, not adjusted for opponent caliber).

What stands out to me is how close Harvard, Princeton and Yale were last year on non-TO possessions both on the offensive and defensive side. Remains to be see how much of Princeton's astonishing +5pp turnover rate differential it can carry forward into the 2017-18 campaign. And if Harvard and Yale can flip theirs to positive, that could REALLY propel those two forward.

Offensive Rating on possession with 3PT shot:
HAR 133
PRIN 133
YALE 133
COL 130
DART 130
BRN 128
PENN 125
COR 120

Offensive Rating on possession with 2PT J:
PENN 106
YALE 103
COR 98
DART 98
HAR 93
COL 89
PRIN 89
BRN 82

Offensive Rating on possession with layup:
HAR 148
YALE 140
COL 137
COR 137
PENN 135
PRIN 134
DART 133
BRN 132

Offensive Rating on possession with 2 FTs:
PRIN 162
BRN 158
HAR 158
YALE 156
COL 152
DART 150
COR 146
PENN 146

Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 3PT shot:
HAR 116
PRIN 125
YALE 125
DART 128
COR 131
PENN 131
COL 138
BRN 139

Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 2PT J:
HAR 94
YALE 96
PENN 97
COL 99
COR 99
PRIN 101
DART 102
BRN 105

Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with layup:
PRIN 119
HAR 134
PENN 135
COL 136
YALE 136
COR 144
DART 144
BRN 153

Defensive (Oppt Offensive) Rating on possession with 2 FTs:
COL 145
HAR 145
PRIN 147
DART 149
BRN 153
YALE 153
PENN 155
COR 156

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3716

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
11-03-17 04:18 PM - Post#235434    
    In response to mrjames

Mike, can you add percentages for each? It would help provide context.

The thing that stands out is Princeton's ability to defend layups.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-03-17 04:25 PM - Post#235435    
    In response to TheLine

Yeah, I don't have that written into the print out now, but I could add it pretty easily. In the interim, you can get most of the way there with three point and FT rates from KenPom.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4617

Reg: 11-22-04
11-03-17 04:32 PM - Post#235436    
    In response to mrjames

Anywhere free that has Penn's 2 pt jumper percentages by player? Curious whose jumpers are getting counted and what type of jumpers they are. Is Penn's ORAT higher because they take fewer of them and thus only take them when they are easiest? Are they not pull-ups off the dribble (and do pull-ups have different percentages from the Henry Books type of jumper?)? Or just a quirk?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3525

Reg: 02-04-06
11-03-17 07:12 PM - Post#235443    
    In response to SomeGuy

Princeton could have been a lot better on layups offensively (look at that Harvard number!), but their stingy collapsing D on opponents who got to the rim also fit well with their determination not to make ORs too easy for the opponent.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5240

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-03-17 07:21 PM - Post#235444    
    In response to SomeGuy

Hoop-math.com is great!

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3716

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
11-03-17 07:47 PM - Post#235445    
    In response to mrjames

Nice site. Mind already blown. More stuff to digest. Can't wait for season to start so I can watch games instead.


 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4617

Reg: 11-22-04
11-03-17 11:20 PM - Post#235449    
    In response to mrjames

Thanks. Looking quickly, seems like AJ and Max get a lot of assisted 2 pt jumpers. Then next would be Foreman getting himself into the lane for unassisted pull-ups. No idea if the numbers hold up across other teams and players, but at least last year AJ and Max hit a higher percentage. Interesting stuff.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1139

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
11-03-17 11:34 PM - Post#235450    
    In response to SomeGuy

Harvard's layup ORAT is going to drop without Zena. Chris is good too, but that was a combo that led the league in shooting %

 
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