Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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11-06-17 06:44 PM - Post#235553
We have had wild debates about who has predictive skills - using statistics, context, and eye-tests. Let's get it all on the record.
Heading into the season, what are your predictions?
1. Non-conference record.
2. Ivy League record and place.
3. Starting 5 at the END of the season.
4. Antonio Woods efficiency ratings (Orat, Drat, or qualitative).
5. All Ivy candidates?
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barryw
Sophomore
Posts: 122
Age: 78
Reg: 05-05-10
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11-07-17 03:00 PM - Post#235609
In response to Penndemonium
My prediction is 9-6 nonconference,(2-2 in the city games), 8-6 league, 17-12 overall. Once again they will finish fourth in the league. If Ivy teams can still go to the CBI or CIT then they will play in the post season. Last year only the Ivy champ Princeton went to a tournament. Of course, this is based on no major injuries.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-07-17 04:09 PM - Post#235616
In response to barryw
30 games, not 29, but I will remain optimistic.
19-11 over all, 9-5 Ivies, 3rd place
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Predictions
11-07-17 04:52 PM - Post#235617
In response to palestra38
Mine are here...
https://twitter.com/ivybball/status/92792 779858873...
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3052
Reg: 10-20-14
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11-07-17 05:05 PM - Post#235620
In response to mrjames
19-11 overall
10-6 Non-conference
1-3 Big Five
9-5 Ivy (4th Place) with 2 wins over top 3 teams
All-Ivy - Brodeur (2nd Team) and Betley (Hon Mention)
That is my most optimistic take, which for Ivy play assumes victories on the road against Dartmouth and Columbia, two places the team has not done well in several years. The Quakers have had a number of recent wins at Cornell, but the games are usually much closer than they should be. If the Big Red improve this year, they might actually hold onto one of these games.
While I would certainly like to see Penn make it into the top 3, right now I would be very happy to see them separate itself from teams 5-8. Another season of endless tie-break analysis and last second heroics will not be desired.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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Predictions
11-08-17 08:03 AM - Post#235647
In response to rbg
14-0 and a first round win in the Big Dance.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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11-08-17 11:10 AM - Post#235661
In response to 10Q
I'll have what 10Q is having
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-08-17 11:17 AM - Post#235662
In response to SteveChop
Good one. Seriously. We are Penn. We don't predict 9-5.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 12:32 PM - Post#235663
In response to 10Q
14-0 and a first round win in the Big Dance.
LOL not advancing past the first round. You have to be kidding!
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1979Quakers
Freshman
Posts: 81
Age: 58
Reg: 06-06-17
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11-08-17 12:40 PM - Post#235665
In response to 10Q
21-9 overall regular season
2-2 in the Big Five (wins over Temple and LaSalle)
10-4 in the Ivy League (splits with HYP and a road loss to Columbia)
9-3 in non-conference games (Wins over Fairfield, Navy, PSU-Brandywine, Howard, Delaware State, and Toledo as well as a win in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Losses against Monmouth, Dayton, and Lafayette...there will be an ugly loss somewhere).
An upset win over Harvard in the first round of the Ivy Tournament followed by a close loss to Yale for the championship.
An appearance in the NIT (along with Harvard) for only the second time in Penn history.
Maybe it is just being an optimist but the talent on this team and a favorable non-Ivy schedule tells me that 20 wins is achievable.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1899
Reg: 11-29-04
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11-08-17 01:34 PM - Post#235672
In response to 1979Quakers
We need Asia and jeff2sf on the record...
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-08-17 01:53 PM - Post#235673
In response to Penndemonium
8-6. 4th.
I have no idea what their non-conf record would/should be because I just don't care enough to look at the non-big 5 people. I will say this, what's more important, as is ultimately where you think they finish in Pomeroy or some other staty-typed model. Records can vary, but Pom is where it's at. So I'll say somewhere between 120-130.
All Ivy? I love Betley and Brodeur, one of them gets named 2nd team.
Woods. 101 ORat. I have no real idea how to predict DRat.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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Predictions
11-08-17 02:16 PM - Post#235675
In response to Jeff2sf
1. 9-7 non-con
2. 7-7 conf, 4th outright
3. Foreman-Donahue-Betley-Sc ott-Brodeur or something else pretty far off the opening day lineup
4. "meh"
5. Brodeur 1st team, nobody else honored
Edited by whitakk on 11-08-17 02:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 03:27 PM - Post#235680
In response to Penndemonium
We have had wild debates about who has predictive skills - using statistics, context, and eye-tests. Let's get it all on the record.
Heading into the season, what are your predictions?
1. Non-conference record.
2. Ivy League record and place.
3. Starting 5 at the END of the season.
4. Antonio Woods efficiency ratings (Orat, Drat, or qualitative).
5. All Ivy candidates?
OVerall: 18-12
Ivy 8-6 4th
Betley, AJ, AW, Darnell, Eddie
AW: 102, 92
All Ivy: Betley 1st team
I should note that KenPom has us at 16-12/8-6 but if you actually count up the IL W/L on KP it's 10-4. Not sure if that's a glitch or some other flaw but it's inconsistent.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 03:30 PM - Post#235681
In response to PennFan10
Not a glitch.
The overall record is based on cumulative probabilities. The easiest way to think about it is this: If I have 14 games that I'm 50.1% to win, I'd be favored in all of them, but clearly the expectation would be 7-7.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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11-08-17 03:48 PM - Post#235682
In response to mrjames
Got it. Makes sense. Thanks for the clarification
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 03:49 PM - Post#235683
In response to mrjames
So what are the odds for the 7 way Ivy football tie with Brown at 0-7?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-08-17 04:04 PM - Post#235684
In response to palestra38
Ha. I don’t analyze exhibition sports.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 04:05 PM - Post#235685
In response to palestra38
For those of you who enjoy this kind of outcome, here is how the 7 way tie would have to go, and it isn't all that far-fetched:
Week 6:
Brown (0-6) loses to Dartmouth (4-2)
Penn (3-3) beats Harvard (3-3)
Princeton (3-3) beats Yale (4-2)
Columbia (3-3) loses to Cornell (4-2)
Week 7:
Penn (4-3) beats Cornell (4-3)
Harvard (4-3) beats Yale (4-3)
Princeton (4-3) beats Dartmouth (4-3)
Columbia (4-3) beats Brown (0-7)
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Predictions
11-08-17 04:40 PM - Post#235687
In response to palestra38
Like it; not impossible.
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