Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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02-27-18 09:20 PM - Post#249770
In response to mrjames
Yeah, I mean, Harvard and Yale losing their 1st Team point guards with no quality replacements really hurt. The team I feel like I badly missed on was Princeton (had them in at a +9 efficiency margin, they're at a -3 and counting). Yale I had in at a +4 but that was assuming they'd get Mason back for the Ivy slate. Harvard I had as a +10, but obviously without Aiken, that wasn't happening (+1 now).
Penn I had as even and it's at +3 right now. So, ironically, I was closest to right on Penn, it's just that the rest of the league fell around it (either by injury or whatever Princeton did).
Will be interesting to see how fourth place shakes out. This would be the first year without some sort of miraculous comeback for fourth since 2012 (Penn last year, Harvard went 4-1 after a 2-7 start in 2016 including ruining Princeton's title hopes, Dartmouth started 1-6 in 2015 and did the second half at 6-1 including ruining Yale's solo title hopes, Princeton started 0-4 in 2014 and finished 8-2, Brown was 3-6 in 2013 and finished 4-1, including ruining Princeton's title hopes).
I singled you out because you had Penn at around 7 league wins, which was the lowest I saw on the thread. Certainly the other teams' decline had something to do with it. Nevertheless, this contest is about results, not reasons! 
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-27-18 09:37 PM - Post#249773
In response to Penndemonium
I was going to say I obviously earned 1st place by nailing Woods' ORAT (it's weird how such a "special player" has a 101.3 ORAT. I was given to understanding that HE WAS SPECIAL!) and also the KenPom rating of between 120-130.
But it turns out Mike Porter one upped me by not only nailing those two things but also 1st team Brodeur and 2nd team Betley. Which is close to POY Brodeur and 1st team Betley.
Nobody predicted the sh!tty state of the Ivy League and Penn's schedule.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-27-18 09:43 PM - Post#249774
In response to Penndemonium
I will note that, though my overall predictions sucked, I was the only one with Betley as a 1st team all Ivy. That is yet to be determined but I like my position at this point.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32863
Reg: 11-21-04
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Predictions
02-27-18 10:38 PM - Post#249784
In response to Jeff2sf
You still don't understand. Let me show you in terms you might understand:
Consider Woods playing Towns for 30 minutes and holding him totally in check until he scored 10 points in desperation time giving up 5 inches
Now consider Towns being played by Jackson Donahue.
ORAT is such a limited measure of a player. If you don't understand why Antonio Woods was like having a high first round pick in football, you simply don't understand basketball--THE GUY CAN PLAY. No, he's not a great shooter and I never said he was. But he can play and he replaced guys who are, at best, role players.
And it was Steve Donahue, not me, who said he was a special player. I just quoted him.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3589
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-27-18 11:11 PM - Post#249787
In response to palestra38
If we end up at 13-1 and the one seed in the ILT I would guess we are in line for AJ as POY and DPOY which could go to Darnell or Antonio as well as AJ. Bassey is the other obvious candidate.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-24-18 06:12 PM - Post#254256
In response to PennFan10
All, I need one piece of information regarding the predictions. What was Woods' final ORat and DRat? I don't know where to get those stats.
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-24-18 06:37 PM - Post#254257
In response to Penndemonium
It isn't the ORat and DRat, but I offer you the 2018 efficiency statistics, and the opportunity to compare other teams and other seasons.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-24-18 09:17 PM - Post#254259
In response to Penndemonium
According to sports-reference.com, his ORAT was 104.1 and DRAT 99.6.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-25-18 07:47 AM - Post#254264
In response to SomeGuy
yeah but that's inflated by brandywine. KenPom has the real number. I think it's 103.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-25-18 08:22 AM - Post#254265
In response to Jeff2sf
100.8 for the season, 95.3 in Ivy play. On 15% usage.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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03-25-18 08:34 AM - Post#254266
In response to mrjames
ahhhh, you know I thought maybe something went sideways. Foreman suddenly went from like a 104 to a 110. I know he had a good end to the season but...
My point is, I don't think the discrepancy is due to one game (15 minutes at that).
Man I nailed it. "Special"
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Predictions
03-25-18 09:08 AM - Post#254267
In response to mrjames
100.8 for the season, 95.3 in Ivy play. On 15% usage.
Looking again at his per game numbers down the stretch, you can’t help but wonder if the coaching staff convinced him to finally stop trying to drive in the half court sets because he was struggling so badly to finish at the rim this year. His 2-Point FGA just withered away. Would guess that a shot chart breakdown might show that a big chunk of those he did take were in transition, not the set offense.
A very big warning sign for next year if this were to continue, because he’s also not shown himself to be a consistent 3-point threat either, and it’s a lot easier to guard the whole team when opponents figure out that one of your five guys won’t shoot —and worse yet, can’t put it through the net enough to hurt much in the rare instances when he does shoot.
EDIT/ADD: If you want to be hopeful, Darnell Foreman transformed himself from a horrible 2-pt. shooter in his first three years into an utterly reliable one as a senior (while also boosting himself from dreadful to passably mediocre on 3s in league play), so anything’s possible.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-25-18 09:16 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Predictions
03-25-18 11:57 AM - Post#254277
In response to Chip Bayers
Antonio shot 54% at the rim for 34% of his shots. But a whopping 45% were assisted.
Totally different from 2015 and 2016 when he only took about a quarter of his shots at the rim and made a marginally higher percent (56-59%) BUT only 15-20% were assisted.
Meanwhile, Darnell continued to create his own at the rim, taking 41% of his shots at the rim and making 62% with just 11% of those being assisted.
Darnell was pretty consistent on 2PT Js throughout his career (mid-to-high 30s make rate), but greatly increased his takes at the rim, where he had a much, much higher make rate, which is why his overall 2PT% rose throughout his career.
The only shots Antonio sort of created for himself this year were 2PT Js (even those were 32% assisted which was the highest on the team of anyone to take a reasonable number of shots). And even though he made 42%, that's not a terribly efficient shot.
Darnell led the team at a full offensive win share during Ivy play and (in relatively limited minutes), Caleb was right there at 0.9. Antonio was worth 0.2 offensive win shares. For context Devon Goodman was worth 0.3 in less than half the minutes in league play.
For a team that will need offensive firepower to replace what it's losing, it will be very interesting to see how Antonio will be used. My presumption is that he's either going to need to be turned loose a bit again or see a reduced role.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Predictions
03-25-18 12:14 PM - Post#254279
In response to mrjames
I think a lot turns on what Jelani is. If he is an immediate, no doubt starter at PG, I think Antonio could end up playing a similar role this year to last. If Jelani is not ready to step in that fully, then Antonio ‘s role could be more like Foreman’s role.
What I doubt is that he gets significantly dialed back. I think the question is whether he becomes a real lead player on offense. I think he’ll be at least what he was this year.
He’s got a high basketball IQ and he’s playing with good coaches — I’m confident they’ll figure out how to use him best, and he’ll execute it.
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Chip Bayers
Professor
Posts: 7001
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Predictions
03-25-18 01:21 PM - Post#254281
In response to mrjames
Antonio shot 54% at the rim for 34% of his shots. But a whopping 45% were assisted
This reinforces my suspicion that a lot of those came in transition.
Edited by Chip Bayers on 03-25-18 01:21 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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03-25-18 06:50 PM - Post#254284
In response to Chip Bayers
All,
Here are the final results of Penndemonium's First (Maybe Annual) Predictions Play-off!
Everyone needs to take note - these results are final. No arguments, no name calling, and even no facts will change the results. I simply don't have time to judge this again. Comments and criticisms are of course welcome.
I scored everyone's results and ... [drum roll]
In 3rd place, we have PennFan10. PennFan10 made some very good calls. He picked 4 out of 5 starters for the team, and predicted AW's ORat pretty close to reality. What prevented PennFan10 from a higher finish was the prediction of an 18-12 season and 4th place in the league.
In 2nd place, we have 10Q who predicted a 14-0 record and 1st place in the league. I considered that this might be the winner just on the 1st place prediction, but there were 5 questions and he didn't answer the others. Also, 10Q predicted that they would win their first round NCAA game. If I believed that 10Q really thought they would go undefeated, then maybe he would be the winner.
And finally - the championship for this season goes to 1979 who predicted a 21-9 season and 10-4 within the Ivy League. I gave just an edge of partial credit to 1979 for predicting an ILT win over Harvard and and a loss to Yale. Even though they beat Yale in the tournament, their late season loss seemed to make this guess not that far off.
Congratulation to our podium winners! I'll publish more on the scoring scheme later, but answering all of the questions helped those who did so. Most of us predicted 4th place in the league, which the team far surpassed.
Thanks for participating and join in next year! answer all questions to give yourself the best chance of winning!
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