cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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11-12-17 06:17 PM - Post#236009
On Tuesday night, Longwood, the worst team we play this season by KenPom ratings (337), follows immediately on the heels of the game against the best. Bookend by this two games, we should get a better sense of whether it was, in fact, just the quality of the opponent that throttled the performance of some Columbia players.
The Longwood game is also the only away game of the first seven that we are supposed to win. The KP projections for the remaining 6 are as follows:
Longwood (337) 80-72 (76% win probability
Penn State ((45) 67-84 (6% probability)
Army (183) 74-79 (34% probability)
Colgate (179) 70-75 (33% probability)
Connecticut (67) 65-78 (12% probability
Albany (113) 68-76 (23% probability)
Penn State, Connecticut, and Albany seem like real stretches. But if we could beat Army and/or Colgate away, that would be the first sign that the season is looking up.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2972
Reg: 03-02-08
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11-12-17 09:18 PM - Post#236051
In response to cc66
Based upon some of the mediocre performances by other Ivies this weekend I do not see much cause for pessimism in losing by 15 to #6 ranked Villanova, a team with two potential first rounders. Certainly Yale was totally overmatched by Wisconsin and Princeton, while competitive, lacked the balance to defeat a good Butler team. To be sure Harvard took U Mass at home, but it looked like a one man show. The next few games will tell us a lot more about our team.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-12-17 09:30 PM - Post#236053
In response to Chet Forte
I somehow agree with your thesis but not your argument. If Mason’s gone for the Ivy campaign too, feels to me like Columbia’s the biggest beneficiary. I don’t love Cornell as much as most seemed to & Dartmouth and Brown have a long way to go.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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11-12-17 09:41 PM - Post#236058
In response to mrjames
From the first games of the season the top 4 seem to have all regressed a little from last year. Very small sample size, but should worry any ivy fan. Biggest beneficiary is columbia. If this first weekend is any indication Columbia has a remote shot at the ivy title this year and definitely a good chance at the tournament and then two wins more to the dance. I think this year it will take an 8-6 or even 9-5 record to make the ivy tournament, because no team is dominant and brown and Dartmouth might end up with very poor records. Princeton look like clear favorites, and Yale with a 100% mason would compete well, but the door is not shut to us like it seemed a couple weeks ago.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2972
Reg: 03-02-08
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11-12-17 10:09 PM - Post#236060
In response to Columbia Alum
One move that I think we should make is to make Hickman a sixth man. He used to thrive in that role and it might take some of the pressure off of him. He had 27 or 28 minutes against Villanova and is more suited to 16 or so. The most minutes should go to Smith, although 35 is clearly too much, and Castlin, who should be getting 28 -30. I see Tape, Meisner and Faulds basically splitting the front court minutes and combo SF/ SG guys like Hanson and Killingsworth on the court when we go with what is basically a four guard offense, with Bibbs and/or Stefanini and/or Adlesh in the mix in the backcourt.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2178
Reg: 02-14-06
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11-13-17 03:22 PM - Post#236131
In response to Chet Forte
Forget it, from our experience last year, we know that Engles' style is to keep the starting line-up intact indefinitely, which means maybe four or five games. But he subs freely and often so it really doesn't matter much who starts because the back of the rotation hits the floor quickly. I suppose that he may change his approach for the reason you stated, or if one of the freshman makes an immediate impact. Incidentally, I thought that Faulds, Hanson, Bibbs and Stefanini all started their collegiate careers very nicely against the #1 ranked team in the country (per Pom). They did not seem nervous at all and they certainly looked very talented. And we haven't even seen another possible standout freshman, Randy Brumant.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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11-13-17 08:08 PM - Post#236159
In response to Columbia 37P6
The game notes are out--the starting lineup is the same. Although we know that who starts doesn't mean much, let's see how long Hickman stays in, and whether his production improves.
To keep moving up in KenPom, let's exceed the projected 8 pt. victory and win by 12-15.
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Dr. V
PhD Student
Posts: 1539
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-13-17 11:05 PM - Post#236239
In response to cc66
I wasn't able to watch the Nova game and only listened to it, but am still stunned by the stat that our three bigs, Tape, Faulds and Meisner, in a collective 45 minutes of play managed only 3 rebounds among them. We got slaughtered on the boards. If that doesn't change in some significant way, nothing else will work.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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11-14-17 01:16 PM - Post#236276
In response to Dr. V
Although I knew they were pushed around, I overlooked that rather depressing stat. They had better improve, and not just against the likes of Longwood, or it's going to be Smith vs. against 5.
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internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3400
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 08:14 PM - Post#236330
In response to cc66
The video is being streamed on their site
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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11-14-17 08:56 PM - Post#236335
In response to internetter
46-35 half time, but depressingly close until the last 2 minutes. Castlin injured, centers and Tape in particular, disappointing, but Hickman is better, and Adlesh in his best game leads with 13 pts.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2972
Reg: 03-02-08
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11-14-17 09:59 PM - Post#236343
In response to cc66
Ten point win, a few good signs much much to work on. Nice overall game by Meisner, including great work on the boards, good all around game by Smith, although he had problems when Longwood put a very big guard on him, and good work by Adlesh and Killingsworth. Tape is still a work in progress. Faulds looks like he is going to be a good one. I didn’t see enough of the other first years to draw many conclusions. My biggest concern remains Hickman, except for 8 early points and a huge timeout that he called to avoid a jump ball his offensive game has just flat out disappeared. With Castlin out Engles looked reluctant to take Hickman out of the game, but he is just not getting it done offensively and even missed a few bunnies.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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Longwood 11-14-17 10:02 PM - Post#236344
In response to cc66
87-77 final, Adlesh with 23, smith with 22, killingsworth 3 for 3 on 3, and Meisner with 16 rebounds and 12 pts.
Tape is struggling, with 0 of 5 from the field, and Faulds still trying to get his feet under himself at the D1 level. No interior defense means we are going to get killed inside until the centers come around.
We won, but played poorly.
Edited by cc66 on 11-14-17 10:05 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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Longwood 11-14-17 10:05 PM - Post#236345
In response to cc66
Won by 10, but a little disappointed with the game and always felt close. Longwood is one of the worst D1 teams, and we kept letting them back in the game. We won because we got a little lucky draining 3s and we rebounded better. Meisner, at least against middling competition, is an excellent and consistent rebounder. Tape looked a little lost and nervous today. Faulds understandably looked a little unprepared for D1 ball, he also doesn't seem to have a decent free throw. Smith, adlesh and killingworth carried our scoring, Meisner chipped in well. We missed castlin today, and continue to think Hickman's minutes should be more limited, he seemed a little haphazard. Nothing today convinced me we're any better than kenpom 200, or that we'll be able to make ivy top 4.
Our biggest room for improvement today is protecting the ball, keeping focus and having fewer turnovers. Kyle smith drilled this into his players and that's one of the things that made his teams successful.
Edited by Columbia Alum on 11-14-17 10:09 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2972
Reg: 03-02-08
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11-14-17 10:21 PM - Post#236348
In response to Columbia Alum
Anybody know when Castlin will be back?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 10:31 PM - Post#236350
In response to Chet Forte
Winning by 10 at Longwood is actually just inside Top 200 quality. Winning on the road by a decent margin is hard no matter how low on the D1 totem pole a team is!!!
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2178
Reg: 02-14-06
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11-14-17 10:51 PM - Post#236352
In response to Chet Forte
KenPom ranking of Longwood at 337 seems ridiculous. Longwood should be ranked much higher, perhaps between 150-200. Several of Longwood's players are quicker and more athletic than their Villanova counterparts. Longwood's 6'5" point guard, Isaiah Walton, is a nightmare to guard and Longwood's bigs are very quick and athletic. Their speed and agility seemed to surprise our bigs tonight and took them off their game. Anyway, it's too early in the season to make much of anything.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2204
Reg: 10-09-09
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Longwood 11-14-17 11:38 PM - Post#236354
In response to Columbia 37P6
Despite how poorly we played, Mike is right--we rose to 197 in KP, mostly on the strength of our 1.18 Orat. But Tape's Orat was 57, and he is missing FTs, just about every shot in close, and not even blocking anything either, the one skill he displayed last year even when he was not producing offensively.
Every other position shows signs of life. We are not going anywhere, however, until our centers start to contribute.
Edited by cc66 on 11-14-17 11:38 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-15-17 08:42 AM - Post#236364
In response to Columbia 37P6
Well, they were 347 in kenpom last year with most of the same guys, including Walton. 10th worst in the country. 6-24. They may be better (and at least for two games, Walton looks better), but I very much doubt they move up 150-200 spots.
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Columbia Alum
Junior
Posts: 247
Age: 38
Reg: 11-15-11
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11-15-17 09:30 AM - Post#236366
In response to SomeGuy
Longwood is a sub KP 300 team, one of the worst opponents we'll face all year. Hanging around KP 200 isn't going to cut it for us this year. We need to be inside KP150 to stand a good shot at the top 4.
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