palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 09:09 AM - Post#236254
Had to sleep this one off. I think Donahue went with the correct game plan, playing a far better defensive team to match up with LaSalle's athleticism. We got the much better shots throughout the game and just missed them. Woods wins the game with a perfectly planned last play in regulation simply by hitting the layup. Foreman wins the game in OT by hitting a slightly harder but still easily makeable layup. Our freshmen are not ready to play at this level and Scott had to be -8 or 9 in just a couple of minutes. The only question I have is why we didn't see more of Wood---he was our only player likely to hit a 3 and when he was out there, the LaSalle defense had to come out rather than collapse as they did all game.
Rothschild is effective on defense but sucks the life out of our offense. I don't want to see this lineup playing this much time against less athletic teams.
Now to forget it... I wish Mr. Spock had come to me in the night, put his hand on my temple and murmured, "Forget...."
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 11:00 AM - Post#236260
In response to palestra38
Live long and prosper.
What I want to know is why AJ has not progressed. He came in as a freshman phenom, but his game has not gotten better one iota. He also does not look as strong as I would have expected. Do they not have a weight lifting program? I get that he is a real student and I don't blame the guy for having other interests. I just wish he had matured into a truly dominant force.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-14-17 11:48 AM - Post#236263
In response to 10Q
it's so crazy how a guy who struggled with finishing at the rim over 40 games worth of data would have trouble... finishing.
I think that's the definition of irony. Although I wasn't an English major.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 11:59 AM - Post#236264
In response to Jeff2sf
Assuming you're speaking of Woods, the reason he was out there for 44 or so minutes was that the replacements were brutal. He made some really nice moves and played very good defense. But yes, he could have won the game for us and did not. I am certain that the 40 games of statistics would have predicted that miss. But if you want to talk about finishing, you have to look at that 6-19 from our starting center. That cannot happen.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 12:01 PM - Post#236265
In response to palestra38
Woods looks functional, but I'm not sure he's better than that.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Brutal Loss
11-14-17 12:05 PM - Post#236266
In response to 10Q
it's almost like me saying that he might be starting not because he was good but because he was the best available of bad options...
Who knew that you could use data, mix in some trends with how basketball works now, and come up with accurate statements about basketball? Someone should let Mike James know!
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 12:10 PM - Post#236267
In response to Jeff2sf
And someone should also acknowledge that Mike James was correct to remind Penn fans not to undervalue the contributions of Matt Howard when assessing the potential for this year's team.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 12:18 PM - Post#236268
In response to Stuart Suss
One thing I noticed last night is that we have no touch around the hoop. Again and again our guys banged the ball off the backboard from a foot away, instead of just laying it up softly.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 12:19 PM - Post#236269
In response to Stuart Suss
Are you telling us we didn't lose games just like yesterday over the past 4 years?
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Brutal Loss
11-14-17 12:27 PM - Post#236270
In response to Jeff2sf
it's so crazy how a guy who struggled with finishing at the rim over 40 games worth of data would have trouble... finishing.
I think that's the definition of irony. Although I wasn't an English major.
Very clever: you pretend to engage in the more recent form of irony (referencing a situation that is the opposite of what one would expect), but actually deploy the traditional form of irony: saying precisely the opposite of what you actually mean. I may need to see a grammatical orthopedist to treat my syntactic whiplash.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Brutal Loss
11-14-17 12:35 PM - Post#236271
In response to Silver Maple
And I thought Irony was when it rains on your wedding day
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 12:40 PM - Post#236272
In response to palestra38
Nothing like an indoor chupa.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-14-17 12:49 PM - Post#236273
In response to 10Q
If it rains the groom just wears his gore-tex cummerbund.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Brutal Loss
11-14-17 01:08 PM - Post#236274
In response to Stuart Suss
Here's what I like about the man defense that Penn has essentially been forced into now:
- they're stealing the ball like mad (11% steal rate)
- they're able to chase opponents off the three-point line (which will serve them well when opponents start shooting better than 20%)
What I hate about it is that now you can pull AJ away from the rim, and opponents are getting there with impunity (40% shots there versus 31% last year & opponents are making 67% versus 55% last year). Also, the man defense is opening them up to fouls and the opponent free throw rate (plus the eye-popping make rate, which should regress) is killer.
Lineup splits are quite unsurprising (even this early on):
Betley + Brodeur are 94 ORAT/87 DRAT on floor (119 poss) and 84/138 off floor (37 poss).
Antonio Woods is 90 ORAT/102 DRAT on floor (83 poss) and 94/97 off floor.
Penn's most frequent lineup has been: Betley, Brodeur, Foreman, Woods, Rothschild (52 poss) with an ORAT of 83, DRAT 79.
That lineup is really struggling at the rim (42% of shots there, 28.6% make rate) and obviously from three as well (2-of-12). But for me, it's really concerning that they're settling for so many two point Js (35% of shots, versus 17% of shots for all other lineups) and thus, not taking as many threes (23% of shots versus 50% of shots for all other lineups). I know the angst over the three point shooting right now, but we know Penn isn't a 23.7% shooting team (we know this because no team in the COUNTRY was worse than 26.7% and only 14 teams nationally were worse than 30%), and when that shooting does improve, you're going to want to be allocating shots like the "all other lineups" not as the Betley-Brodeur-Foreman-Wo ods-Rothschild one is currently.
But, yeah, this team seems to be missing Howard right now. Want more data before making any stronger statement than that...
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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11-14-17 02:15 PM - Post#236277
In response to mrjames
Mike,
Does your analysis included the Fairfield stats? We shot 59 three's in two games, an average of almost 30, which is more than our average last year and the 39 3pters vs Fairfield were somewhere near a school record for attempts.
Seems to me we are taking our share of 3's, maybe not last night but through two games we are 14-59.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 02:23 PM - Post#236278
In response to PennFan10
It does.
I've got 59 threes across 156 possessions, but for the 52 possessions that specific lineup was on the floor together, they only took 12. Penn took 47 threes across the other 104 possessions. That's not totally surprising, given that, among returning players from last season, the number 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7th-ranked players in terms of threes taken are not part of that lineup.
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Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts: 29
Age: 86
Reg: 01-22-17
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11-14-17 02:40 PM - Post#236279
In response to mrjames
Do you think that may be because Donahue rewards players with playing time based on the number of three point shots they take? And not necessarily how many they make? (Jackson, last season and first game) Is it just me or does this team so often look like a bad AAU team, with selfish guards chucking up three's, going one on one and not having the patience to actually set up a play? There is no cohesiveness, no flow. No chemistry. I still don't see a team leader. And I definitely don't see a point guard who makes the others on the team better. Yeah, its great that Darnell can score 17 in a game and drive to the basket, drawing fouls, but when was the last time anyone saw him make a great pass to a big under the basket? Is he making anyone else on the team better? Couldn't a little selflessness at that position do this team well? And I'm not sure Devin is the answer, either. Especially if the way you stay on the floor is to shoot threes. I think so much of this falls on the coach.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-14-17 02:43 PM - Post#236280
In response to Basketball Bruce
if that's rewarded, why did Jackson Donahue get 0 minutes last night?
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Basketball Bruce
Freshman
Posts: 29
Age: 86
Reg: 01-22-17
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11-14-17 02:51 PM - Post#236281
In response to Jeff2sf
I acknowledged that in my post. And maybe things will be different this season. But historically, Donahue rewards three point shooting. Even if the ball doesn't go in.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-14-17 02:59 PM - Post#236284
In response to Basketball Bruce
I mean, Penn's offensive rating on possessions with a three, while lower than the other Ivies, was still basically in line with its ORAT on non-TO possessions. So, even shooting the ball at a rate that's displeasing to Penn fans still ends up being a good choice for this team.
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