Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-16-17 01:40 PM - Post#236630
In response to Jeff2sf
After three games, I'm reluctantly coming to the POV that AW is playing because he's better than anybody else on the team at doing some things that need to be done, particularly with the departure of Matt Howard. It's not that he's so amazing at those things, or that he has no deficiencies in his game (clearly he does), but that the team's talent level is still pretty low (thanks, Steve Bilsky!) and Antonio is simply the tallest dwarf.
I'm hoping that the current crop of freshmen pans out and that the coaches can still manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat WRT the 2018 class. If they can't significantly elevate the talent level in the program, we're going to be permanently stuck in a state of mediocrity.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 01:49 PM - Post#236631
In response to Silver Maple
Yeah, I've been a little concerned about the narrative that whiffing on the 2018 class would be okay because the 2017 class was so strong.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 363
Reg: 03-25-09
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11-16-17 01:53 PM - Post#236632
In response to palestra38
That half court shot at halftime was awesome and she nearly made the 2nd for 100k
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 01:54 PM - Post#236633
In response to Silver Maple
Are you kidding me? Seriously? Are you watching the games? We should have beaten LaSalle and could have beaten Fairfield and are playing at a higher level certainly than we were at the beginning of last year.
Reading this confirms what I said before---all this moaning is based on a single missed layup. Hey, with Howard, last year we lost to the team we destroyed last night.
You cannot make the kind of conclusions that some of you guys are trying to take from 3 games of stats.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 01:55 PM - Post#236634
In response to yoyo
2 straight $5000 shots and yes, that young lady really had both shots on line from half court. Why is she not on the team?
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 363
Reg: 03-25-09
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11-16-17 02:00 PM - Post#236637
In response to palestra38
She looked like a ringer. Where are they finding these people?
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Navy
11-16-17 02:01 PM - Post#236638
In response to palestra38
Reading this confirms what I said before---all this moaning is based on a single missed layup.
Really?
That's not true and is insulting to this board.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-16-17 02:08 PM - Post#236639
In response to TheLine
It's weird because in saying that you shouldn't get too hung up on one bounce of the basketball, you're right. It's just where you then go off that makes so little sense.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Navy
11-16-17 02:23 PM - Post#236640
In response to TheLine
There would be few if any claims that we have a talent deficiency if we weren't 0-2 going into yesterday's game. We have more talent on this team than any Penn team since 2007. When was the last time we completely destroyed a team at our level? We have a legitimate shot given the injuries and graduations to win this freaking league and you guys are moaning and groaning over recruiting for next year. To me, that is insulting.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-16-17 02:25 PM - Post#236641
In response to palestra38
I'm insulted that everybody is getting so insulted.
If I had a dog, I would now go and kick it.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 02:28 PM - Post#236643
In response to Silver Maple
LOL. If you think this is mock outrage, go read the comments all over the blogosphere about Al Franken.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Navy
11-16-17 02:35 PM - Post#236645
In response to palestra38
There would be few if any claims that we have a talent deficiency if we weren't 0-2 going into yesterday's game. We have more talent on this team than any Penn team since 2007.
I'm not completely sure that's true. But even if I take it as a given, it's irrelevant. The league is so much better than 2007. And it's getting better. We need to compete. AJ and Ryan are cool (although Yale/Princeton/Harvard have lots of AJs). They need help.
I'm still optimistic about what Eddie/Jarrod/Jelani can do. I see something there, especially with Jarrod.
But the reality is this: AJ and Ryan contributed immediately. Eddie has very clearly been a nothing to awful in 3 games. Jarrod hasn't been able to surpass a limited Max and Jelani suffered an injury that has derailed many of our players in the past. So it would be reasonable to conclude that they aren't going to be as impactful as AJ and Ryan. I don't accept that will be the case yet, but AJ and Ryan need help and if these guys can't provide it, we're going to remain CLEARLY behind Princeton and Harvard.
Finally, while I'd feel a little better if we had won against LaSalle, I and many others would still be concerned about how we won and the freshmen's limited impact. Because our KenPom would basically be the same in either event.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Navy
11-16-17 02:49 PM - Post#236648
In response to Jeff2sf
Well, had we beaten LaSalle, we would have beaten a 109 at home (we are 139) while Princeton lost to a 68 at home (when they were a 100).
KenPom ratings change a lot this time of year and I think a lot of you underestimate what Princeton lost to graduation.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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11-16-17 02:53 PM - Post#236649
In response to palestra38
they sure do. I for one am not expecting LaSalle to stay 109 (fall) nor Princeton to stay 101 (rise). You also wrongly said Yale would struggle the year before they won the league. You don't know how this stuff works. Others do.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 02:55 PM - Post#236650
In response to Silver Maple
Through three games:
Antonio Woods on floor (118 poss - 52% team poss):
90 ORAT
97 DRAT
Woods off floor (108 poss):
96 ORAT
80 DRAT
Granted, all of these defensive numbers are going up once opponents stop shooting 5-for-23 from 3 with Woods on the floor and 3-for-25 with him off of it. Biggest difference between those two numbers, though, is Penn forcing a 26% TO rate with Woods off the floor (13% steal rate), while only forcing a 19% TO rate with him on floor (10% steal rate).
What stands out to me is the following:
AW on floor, percent of shots by type -
38% Layup
30% 2PT J
32% 3PT J
Off floor -
35% Layup
18% 2PT J
47% 3PT J
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 02:58 PM - Post#236652
In response to Jeff2sf
Oh please, the fact that I predicted Yale to struggle is no more or less scientific than my prediction Penn would compete with Harvard for a championship when you mocked me. It's just an opinion. But apples to apples both played teams 30 places in front of us at home and we should have won had it not been for a missed easy layup (yes, Woods blew it). Princeton was beaten more easily, although they were competitive.
I think we'll be competitive with all 3 of the favorites. The defense we showed we can play is the big difference this year. We have been a terrible defensive team and now we can go out and play defense on the perimeter while having 2 big bodies inside.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Navy
11-16-17 02:58 PM - Post#236653
In response to palestra38
KenPom ratings change a lot this time of year and I think a lot of you underestimate what Princeton lost to graduation.
Penn's KP rating would barely be different if it had won by 2 vs. losing by 4. KP doesn't change wildly this time of year anymore due to the preseason priors.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 02:59 PM - Post#236654
In response to mrjames
Guess we should be playing 4 on 5 then, because the subs for AW haven't exactly been lighting it up (other than Wood, who has played well so far with both Foreman and Woods)
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-16-17 03:09 PM - Post#236658
In response to palestra38
Wood is starting out exactly like he did last year. Then at some point his long distance shooting went south and by the end of the year he and erstwhile starter MacDonald were rendered invisible.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-16-17 03:17 PM - Post#236659
In response to penn nation
Not exactly, he was 1-9 in our first game. But the real issue was that he had 21 turnovers playing about 18-20 minutes per game in our first 5 games.
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