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Username Post: Navy        (Topic#20680)
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4466

Reg: 11-22-04
11-16-17 10:16 PM - Post#236750    
    In response to SomeGuy

yeah i'm not sayin goodbye to dev goodman. Woods has never had as successful a stretch as dev did in the ivies (100 ORat). not over 3 games where his shot isn't falling.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 4894

Reg: 02-04-06
11-16-17 10:21 PM - Post#236751    
    In response to mrjames

Thanks for that explanation. It matches what I thought was the only logical way to rationalize these claims: That if we plot the expected hit rate for a trey against defender distance from the shooter that it is flat until the defender is VERY close, at which point the offensive player is likely to do something besides shoot. Kind of like the strong nuclear force--superpowerful at very close range, but negligible at greater distance.

Not sure why that wouldn't apply to any jump shot at any distance, though. I guess there's a lot more usable space to shoot 2-pt. Js, so harder to deter those completely. But the effect of D on 2-pt. accuracy seems like it shouldn't be any higher either. I can come up with some speculative mechanisms for that discrepancy but they're pretty just-so.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3615
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
11-17-17 02:46 AM - Post#236760    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Of course there is. We have been in all 3 games and should have won 2 of them and right now are much better than we were same time last year. If the stats don't measure that, that's a problem with the stats (more likely the sample size, which doesn't seem to be a problem for some here) and not the conclusion.



P38 - love the optimism, but:

- We've played 3 repeat opponents so far in 3 games.
- Last year, we won 2 of the games and SHOULD have won the 3rd but blew it at the end of the game.
- This year after losing only Howard, we've lost 2 of the games and won only 1 of them (though it as a blow out, which was fun)...

Our defense is looking improved and reduced turnovers are great so our ranking actually is better at the same point in the season - 140 to 185 if I'm reading right.

Improved slightly, but a lot to get worked out so I'm not sure improvement is as drastic as you seem to see.


 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Navy
11-17-17 07:33 AM - Post#236761    
    In response to palestra38

On Princeton, it is complicated. All they've done so far is lose two competitive games to two teams that I think are clearly better than anyone in our league. Lots of gnashing of teeth on their board, but the team last year probably loses those games similarly. There are unanswered questions about rotation and who will support their big three, so I am not sure how good they are.

I do want to address the narratives regarding when a team is playing well, not well, etc. Both the Princeton board and the Columbia board talk of stretches last year when the team was playing well and when it was not. However, to me both teams were fairly predictable in their trajectory. Princeton lost all those tough OOC games last year, but in losing they still were obviously at the top of our league statistically coming in. 14-0 is on the extreme end, but they were presumably favored in kenpom to win just about all of those games.

For Columbia, with home games against comparable teams in the first half and road games in the second half, it was reasonably predictable that the outcomes would go the way they did.

Penn was more complicated, but again, after 0-6, statistically we went back to being more or less the team we were OOC.

And I agree with Mike -- so far, we aren't playing any better than last year. Though I also agree with P38 that we are playing differently. And like P38, I'm optimistic.

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1878

Reg: 11-29-04
11-17-17 04:16 PM - Post#236814    
    In response to SomeGuy

I've only watched the Navy game (ESPN3 replay), so all I see is a team that seems focused for 40 minutes and is playing with purpose.

Betley looks the most comfortable, with Brodeur, Wood, and Foreman looking fine as well.

Woods does bring something different to the team - he is physically much stronger than I remember him. He was able to stand his ground against other teams' guards and be disruptive in that way.

I liked the look of Eddie Scott. While he didn't do anything heroic, he seems ahead of where many other forwards were at the same time (Archibong, Trice, Ryan, Reilly). We rarely get fully formed forwards ready to compete from day 1, so it will all depend on his development from here. Brodeur is the exception.



 
weinhauers_ghost 
Postdoc
Posts: 2125

Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
Navy
11-17-17 04:57 PM - Post#236821    
    In response to Penndemonium

  • Penndemonium Said:
I liked the look of Eddie Scott. While he didn't do anything heroic, he seems ahead of where many other forwards were at the same time (Archibong, Trice, Ryan, Reilly). We rarely get fully formed forwards ready to compete from day 1, so it will all depend on his development from here. Brodeur is the exception.



I was at the game Wednesday, and I was also enthused about the focus with which the team played. The defense was sharp; Navy never managed to figure out how to find open spots in the zone.

That putback Scott had? At some point I wouldn't be surprised if that play becomes a tip dunk. It looks as if he's definitely ahead of Simmons.

Brodeur's next step needs to be anticipating where the double team will come from when he gets the ball in the post, and then identifying open teammates, whether they're cutting to the basket or on the other side of the floor. I know it's still early, but it didn't look to me as if he's adjusted to the fact that opponents are focusing their defensive game plan in order to try to completely neutralize him.

I loved the fact that the team forced turnovers and capitalized on those scoring opportunities. And it was refreshing to see them run a proper fast break, instead of ending up with the wing guys watching a guard try to split two defenders. Passing the ball to Max in the middle of a break was a mistake, though. That opportunity was doomed from the start.


Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 11-17-17 04:57 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
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