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Username Post: rankings now        (Topic#20682)
internetter 
Postdoc
Posts: 3399

Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
11-15-17 01:36 PM - Post#236392    

Given how volatile the various rankings are, as illustrated by one game, what significance are they?
Players' progress or lack thereof seems much more important.
west coast fan


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-15-17 02:13 PM - Post#236397    
    In response to internetter

They were of little consequence in the era before informed priors. Back when the ratings just floated (i.e. everyone started at the same place), it took a month or so before there was enough data to understand who you beat, how good they were and what that meant about how good you are.

With the preseason rankings solidly solving for much of that "unknown," the movement based on results early in the season is actually far more stable than it used to be. You'd still want to wait a few weeks if a team seems to be outperforming its preseason rank to see if that outperformance holds up over a longer period of time, but under the new systems, we can feel more confident about team quality earlier than we could, say, a decade ago.

 
cc66 
Postdoc
Posts: 2201

Reg: 10-09-09
11-15-17 03:05 PM - Post#236403    
    In response to mrjames

I am not making particularly large claims for KP, especially after only two games. Nevertheless, Penn is our primary competition for the 4th spot in the IL tournament. All I was highlighting was that after just two games, the trend was noticeably in our direction.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-15-17 07:25 PM - Post#236453    
    In response to cc66

I mean, I think what Columbia gets out of its freshmen could be the difference relative to Penn...

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: rankings now
11-15-17 09:20 PM - Post#236486    
    In response to internetter

Does it have to be perfectly predictive in order to be of any use? It seems to me that things like kenpom do a remarkably good job of projecting outcomes over a number of games (though if i was going to be unfair and focus on one game, I'd point out that it was 2 points off of the differential in the Longwood game).

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-15-17 09:42 PM - Post#236495    
    In response to SomeGuy

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

 
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