dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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11-15-17 08:00 PM - Post#236456
I believe this will be a telling year in the history of the women's program. There were definitely some missed opportunities last season; they botched some
non-conference games that should have been easy, and they did not put forth a credible effort in the Big 5. They got it together in the league season,
but part of the reason that it looked so easy was that Princeton lost a lot of talent and Harvard did not progress as much as expected. Then, of course,
they played the best 31 minutes in the history of the team, and promptly flushed it away in the final nine. This year, therefore, is going to be a strong clue
about where this program is going. A program that's not moving upwards will once again fall short of the big prizes; one that is progressing is going
to find a way to get it done.
This team has gotten as far as it has to this point by stressing defense, where intelligence, hard work, and good coaching can make enormous differences. It has been a thing of beauty to watch develop over the past few years--but as we found out last season, it can only get you so far.
To get to the next level, they're going to need to work on the offense, and that is much more dependent on recruiting natural talent. The good news so far
is that they brought in what seems to be a pretty good class this year given the players they already have. Eleah Parker appears to be one of the best recruits any non-P5 school is going to get this year, and the guards could be even more important pieces of the puzzle. One positive sign is that in the DP preview, McLaughlin was already talking about Parker working closely with Nwokedi and starting in the near future. Another is that after not having had particularly challenging schedules the past couple of seasons, we're definitely upgrading this year, with next week's tournament featuring a solid Georgia Tech (who invades the Aircraft Hangar of Evil on Sunday, by the way), and possibly Baylor, who is ranked in the top 5 at the moment, plus another visit from Notre Dame in early December. In addition, all four Big 5 games are on the road (they really need to do something about that!).
If they do well against that slate, and assuming the league overall stays at the high level of the past couple of years, they will be in good shape for either a high seed or an at-large to the NCAA's.
The areas that I think are most crucial this season:
1.) The biggest, I think, is going to be the guard play. The obvious issue is that someone needs to replace Chambers at the point. As we found out her
freshman year, Ross is not naturally suited to that role, so if she's spending a lot of time there, we've got problems. Therefore, either Brzozowski and/or
Russell need to progress, or else the two freshmen, Michae Jones and Katie Kinum, need to step right in and contribute. My preferred outcome would be the
latter, for this reason: so far, this team has generally remained conservative on ball movement, not taking a lot of chances. This has held down the
turnovers, but it also decreases the number of opportunities to make things happen. We need someone who can really see the court and move the ball
effectively (and, of course, it would be nice if the whole team could improve in that regard, but obviously, the point runs the show.) I think this is the biggest key if any major improvement is going to happen. It would also be helpful if we could get another blue-chip shooter to help Whitlatch out from three. The two frosh could also be answers there (they both scored a lot of points in high school), as could Phoebe Sterba.
2.) They also need to improve their inside game. I know this is harsh to say about someone who scored over 1,300 points, but Stipanovich was not an efficient player in the post most of the time, and Nwokedi could use some improvement in that department as well. The latter would be a lot easier if Parker can step right up and play; it would
also be great if Agahyere can continue her improvement from last year, and if Anderson could provide some minutes as well.
How about the rest of the league? Well, looking towards the sunlit greenswards of suburban Trenton, the bad news, as noted elsewhere, is that the Tigers
probably brought in the best class in the league, led by Abby Meyers, the player whom Parker will be battling for ROY, and possibly the solution to the
turnover problems that have plagued them the past couple of years. The good news is, it better be the best class in the league, because the seniors are
the same people we beat last year, and a lot of the juniors and sophomores (other than Alarie) were either hurt, are no longer on the team, or didn't impress last year, so they have some work to do as well. I don't know what happened to Harvard last year; they looked great in the non-conference schedule but just couldn't get it done in the
Ivies. They, however, also brought in a good group, and that's going to pay off sooner or later. Brown will continue to be the "any given night" team,
and could be trouble come tournament time, as they were last year. I don't see a lot coming from the other four this year, although Yale has a top 40
player coming in next season, and Megan Griffith at Columbia also seems to be raising their recruiting up a notch; both teams will bear watching in the future.
So, what's going to happen, David? you say. Let's put this in terms of a range:
Worst-case scenario: Parker doesn't play well, which means Nwokedi get double teamed constantly; nobody does a good job at PG and Ross has to play out of position; the juniors continue to underachieve and the sophs don't make any progress; Whitlatch gets hurt again or doesn't fully recover from last year; Princeton's frosh play as advertised and Harvard gets over the top with their talent. If all or many of those things happen, we won't play well out of conference, we'll struggle to make the SEA, and we won't get into the NCAA's.
Best-case scenario: Parker is starting by game 5, making like Sydney on defense while pulling down 10-15 points and 8-10 boards a night, freeing up Nwokedi to win this new power forward award they've created. One of the new guards is starting by game 10 and the ball movement shows a noticeable improvement; Brzozowski and Russell both see steady improvement and kick in a good 20-30 min/g; Whitlatch gets hot from 3 and is joined by Sterba; Princeton's frosh do not so well and Harvard muddles around again. If all or most of these things happen, we'll win the Big 5, go 16-0 in the Ivies, rack up a sweet RPI and a 6 or 7 seed, and become a serious threat to go to the sweet sixteen.
Most likely scenario: Judging by McLaughlin's remarks, I do think Parker will be starting quickly, and she and Nwokedi will make a formidable team up front, that all of the Ivies and many other teams will have trouble dealing with. The freshman guards I haven't heard as much about; I suspect that one of them will be playing regularly by the end of the season, but that Brzozowski and Russell will be getting the bulk of the minutes at point. If they improve, this won't be such a bad thing; they'll be steady, but they probably still won't be pushing the envelope of ball movement. I also don't have a good handle on how well Whitlatch will do, but between all of the candidates I'm pretty sure we'll find at least one consistent three-point shooter. Princeton and Harvard are very likely to get better, but I'm not yet convinced that either one of them is ready to go over the top. The median scenario, therefore, is 2-2 in the Big 5, probably more solid non-conference play than last year but no unexpected wins, 11-3 or 12-2 in the Ivies, with a much closer league race, and Lord only knows what will happen in the SEA or the NCAA's, if they make it that far.
Tonight's opener is at Binghamton, which is a good test right off the bat: they made us look bad last year, and seem to be returning a lot of those players, although they took a solid loss against Army the other night. The game's on ESPN3, so those of you watching the men vs. Navy should be able to take in the replay at some point. If anyone's going to the final season ending Penn-Cornell game on Saturday, join us at 5 for the game against Lafayette (they had an ad at one point for one-day passes to the football and both basketball games for $20; I can't find it right now, though.) and the raising of last season's championship banner. If previous practice holds, I have good reason to believe that Stipanovich will be doing the honors. 
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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Re: Women's Preview: The Possibilities Are Endless
11-15-17 08:10 PM - Post#236459
In response to dperry
Starting lineup: Nwokedi, Ross, Whitlatch, Russell (!) and . . . Parker. 
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Women's Preview: The Possibilities Are Endless
11-15-17 10:54 PM - Post#236529
In response to dperry
Presumably they worked on inbounding the ball in the offseason against helter-skelter defensive pressure.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3052
Reg: 10-20-14
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11-16-17 10:51 AM - Post#236572
In response to penn nation
Tough 77-72 loss to Binghamton last night.
http://www.pennathletics.com/boxscore.aspx?path=wb...
Ross scored the team's first 10 points and the Quakers went up 17-3 in the first quarter. Unfortunately, the Bearcats woke up and started hitting shots.
After looking at the game notes, this was the first time in 68 regular season games where Penn has lost when it has scored more than 60 points.
Binghamton ended up with 10 three pointers, six in the 2nd half and three after the game was tied at 56-56 early in the 4th Quarter. Imani Watkins was huge for BU, scoring 27 points, including 5 three pointers.
Anna Ross ended up with 21. While she did have 5 assists, she also had 5 turnovers. Nwokedi had 16, and Whitlach returned to the lineup and scored 14. Parker went 3-11, missing several layups. While those will fall in time, she did appear to have trouble with the veterans in the Binghamton front court.
While a win would have been great, the Bearcats are a good team that has now beaten Penn two seasons in a row. Like last year, the team will learn from this as it moves forward. Next up is a 5:00 pm Saturday game with Lafayette. The athletic department website is selling a one day pass for the men's game against PSU-Brandywine in the morning, football vs Cornell in the afternoon and the women's game in the early evening.
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