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Username Post: What do we know after 7 games        (Topic#20726)
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
11-22-17 11:26 PM - Post#237421    

Aside from acknowledging how smart Mike James is the results after seven games say several things. (It would be polite is some of you would admit his rightness on things like three shooting and Antonio Woods.)

1. Betley is the real thing. It wasn't just a isolated spurt late last year.
2. Max and AJ can play together, especially on defense.
3. Wood has become a useful piece. Turnovers down, still shooting well.
4. Foreman continues his gritty mediocrity. Would be a useful #4 or 5 player as someone has pointed out.
5. Antonio has disappointed. His KenPom rating is now in the 80's
6. Goodman has not taken a step forward.
7. None of the freshmen has stood out - last year AJ and Betley showed very quickly
8. The rotation is much smaller than with other years at this time.

In summary, the team is marginally better but nowhere near ready to compete for a title. Should Williams contribute, that would make a difference. So would the emergence of Scott, should he suddenly catch fire. But nothing in seven games indicates that. You may remember that Matt showed a nose for the ball even as a raw freshman. I don't see that with Scott except that one put back against Navy.

To the good the defense is way better. To the bad, free throw shooting is awful. More importantly, there is nothing so far to indicate that this recruiting class will lift the program.

It is interesting to note that of the two high caliber players added since Steve took over, AJ had a high rating while Ryan was an average looking recruit. With this year's disappointments, so far, concerning the frosh, it appears that the program's chances depend on getting some more over achievers like Betley more than getting a high potential recruit or two each year. Sadly Mike J. points out that such a pipeline is destined for mediocrity not championships, especially in the now more competitive league.
In Dumph's third year he went 16-10 with two stars in Jerome and Pierce. Such a record is still achievable for Donahue if a few things improve. Dumph added a good recruit and a great transfer to make the jump to light speed. I don't see a transfer. Let's hope that Williams is a revelation or that one of the other frosh finds his magic decoder ring.

Edited by UPIA1968 on 11-22-17 11:29 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
11-22-17 11:49 PM - Post#237422    
    In response to UPIA1968

Freshmen disappointments.

In November.



 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: What do we know after 7 games
11-23-17 12:02 AM - Post#237424    
    In response to UPIA1968

Agree with the observations.

Would only add that Jones, Silpe and MacDonald are only likely to see mopup/blowout roles. Astounding considering Jones ranked 3rd on the team in minutes played during 15-16, with Silpe 5th, and MacDonald ranked 6th last year.

 
Chip Bayers 
Professor
Posts: 6997
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 12:56 AM - Post#237427    
    In response to penn nation

  • Quote:
7. None of the freshmen has stood out - last year AJ and Betley showed very quickly




Betley didn’t play his first game until December 28th.


 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
11-23-17 08:15 AM - Post#237434    
    In response to Chip Bayers

Just for giggles here are the ORAT/DRAT numbers for the rotation regulars and semi-regulars:

Betley : 108.7/90.9
Brodeur : 115.4/89.4
Foreman : 111.4/90.6
Woods : 93.2/92.8
Rothschild : 101.6/87.4
Wood : 127.8/95.2
Goodman : 54.6/86.9
Donahue : 84.6/93.2
Scott : 87.6/90.2


 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 23199

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 09:01 AM - Post#237437    
    In response to TheLine

Please break this down for us non-numerologists.

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 10:58 AM - Post#237441    
    In response to Chip Bayers

  • Chip Bayers Said:

Betley didn’t play his first game until December 28th.



We all know that. Pretty sure he meant that Betley impressed soon after his return to the team.

UPIA: I don’t think anyone really doubted Mike’s point about the 3 shooting. I just wish he made it with a little less attitude. As for Woods, the numbers don’t tell the story. He will a big plus come 2018. I really believe that. The point about the frosh is valid. I see potential there but not soon unless Simmons is pressed into service. Devon is the mystery so far. We need him to find his role soon. I’m also relentlessly optimistic that Tyler will contribute this year. This stretch proved we need that depth he could offer.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
11-23-17 11:09 AM - Post#237443    
    In response to 10Q

Was hoping the numbers could speak for themselves but here's my interpretation.

DRATs predominately measure how well the defense plays when you are on the court. There isn't a huge variation here. Mike's numbers will weed things out better and his last posting was consistent with my observation - AJ and Max are playing excellent defense. I think the exterior defenders are also doing a good job, part of the reason is they know that the rim is well protected behind them. Wood is weaker than the others. Coach Donahue's adjustments on how the players deal with screens is also working well - this is an overall team effort.

ORATs are more individual-oriented. Breaking it down in Win Share order:

Brodeur : Is looking more like his 1st half version from last year and then some. His weaknesses are his 3 point shooting and his FT shooting (though better than last year).

Foreman : Surprise. None of his rates stand out, but he has no major weakness. He's this high due to a good assist rate, low turnover rate, good rebounding rate, and kind of OK shooting.

Betley : This low because his 3FG% hasn't been great.

Rothschild : Bad TO rate. FT rate could be better. Good everything else.

Wood : Has been really good, last game notwithstanding. Defense is probably holding him back from claiming more minutes.

Woods : 3FG% has been good though I'm still not convinced he's a plus outside shooter. 2FG% and FT% have been bad. Everything else is OK but not great - and none of it is better than what Foreman is doing.

Goodman : If he's trying to find his mojo then he's looking in the wrong places.

Donahue : We need the in-control Jackson Donahue who played last game, not the out of control version who was playing the other games.

Scott : Growing pains.



 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
11-23-17 11:09 AM - Post#237444    
    In response to 10Q

Our team defense is surprisingly,consistently good, Wood should be playing more and Woods less.

 
TheLine 
Professor
Posts: 5597

Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
11-23-17 11:27 AM - Post#237446    
    In response to penn nation

Woods must have had too much confidence in this outside shot after the N Illinois game. I was also disappointed in his inability to deal with the press. For a team flush with guards, we only had one capable of breaking it.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 12:05 PM - Post#237450    
    In response to Streamers

  • Quote:
I don’t think anyone really doubted Mike’s point about the 3 shooting. I just wish he made it with a little less attitude.



I think a lot of your point about attitude is frankly that I'm typing quickly and not really couching my language well. Internet doesn't convey tone well all the time.

But to the extent that there is attitude, a microcosm of it is the fact that there are myriad threads (in fact some very, very recent ones) where people not only doubt my points about three-point shooting/the randomness of jumpers/etc, but are outright dismissive of them. Then, when it seems to start to be borne out that my arguments might be correct, people claim how no one ever really doubted them. Then, the next time we're debating something, people will be quick to say that I'm right as much as I'm wrong or similarly dismissive stuff.

I have less and less time to share stuff on here, so I'd prefer if I didn't have to have an argument about my credibility to start every single time. That's frustrating.

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 01:19 PM - Post#237459    
    In response to mrjames

Mike. Fair enough. I understand that nuance is tough on this board. I apologize on behalf of the board for some of the personal stuff that gets flung around. I know many of us value what you have to say, even folks like me who find the stats overwhelming at times and prefer to rely more on what we see on the court.

That said, did anyone think we would hold opponents to 17% from 3?

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
11-23-17 01:23 PM - Post#237462    
    In response to Streamers

  • Streamers Said:


That said, did anyone think we would hold opponents to 17% from 3?



Let’s revisit this after the Nova game.

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
11-23-17 01:40 PM - Post#237468    
    In response to penn nation

Nope. But some haven’t assumed that regressing to the mean is equal to regressing to last year’s mean and that the defense just might possibly be improved. Still any stat based conclusions after a handful of non league games can make anyone look foolish.


 
UPIA1968 
PhD Student
Posts: 1117
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
Re: Betley showed quickly
11-23-17 10:57 PM - Post#237500    
    In response to Chip Bayers

i meant that Ryan showed quickly after he started to play.

 
SomeGuy 
Professor
Posts: 6391

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: What do we know after 7 games
11-24-17 08:57 AM - Post#237508    
    In response to UPIA1968

Here's an early season result I don't think anyone would have predicted (well, maybe P38): right now, we've got the best record in the conference.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: What do we know after 7 games
11-24-17 12:43 PM - Post#237522    
    In response to SomeGuy

To be fair, our SOS aint good. Everyone except Towson is pretty far down the chart.

Towson for sure would not even rank among the Top 10 teams played by an Ivy opponent to date, and I'm not so sure they'd even make a Top 20 list.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 23199

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
11-24-17 01:18 PM - Post#237526    
    In response to penn nation

Trust the process?

 
AsiaSunset 
Postdoc
Posts: 4350

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: What do we know after 7 games
11-24-17 01:26 PM - Post#237528    
    In response to penn nation

That’s true but let’s not forget the league favorite got handled by a team that finished dead last in the tournament we recently finished and lost to two teams we beat in doing so.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: What do we know after 7 games
11-24-17 02:06 PM - Post#237531    
    In response to AsiaSunset

I’d say that the top tier Ivy teams are pretty high variance. Penn to me doesn’t seem to have as high of a ceiling, though. Not enough good shooters either from distance or from the charity stripe. If we only lose to Nova by 15, like Columbia did, Ill be very pleasantly surprised.

 
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