Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



 Page 1 of 2 ALL12
Username Post: 2017-18 Ivy Performance        (Topic#20784)
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
12-03-17 03:58 PM - Post#238909    

Obviously, was not a fun opening week, with three likely All-Ivy players (and very likely 2 first teamers) being announced as done for the year or basically the entire non-conf slate. And it didn't get much better from there...

Here's the rank of all the months of regular season non-conference play by the average game score per game in that month back to the 2010 season. It was a slightly below average November - probably not as disastrous as most thought, but certainly not up to the standard many expected coming in. (December doesn't look good to start... one real day, though...).

Mth-Yr Average Game Score
1 2013/12 53.9
2 2016/12 51.8
3 2015/12 51.8
4 2011/12 51.5
5 2014/12 51.0
6 2013/11 49.9
7 2016/01 49.8
8 2016/02 48.9
9 2015/01 48.2
10 2013/01 47.4
11 2015/02 47.3
12 2014/02 47.2
13 2015/11 46.6
14 2017/01 46.0
15 2014/11 45.7
16 2010/11 45.3
17 2012/02 44.8
18 2017/02 44.8
19 2010/12 44.4
20 2011/02 43.6
21 2013/02 43.5
22 2011/01 43.4
23 2017/11 43.4
24 2014/01 43.2
25 2012/12 42.5
26 2011/11 41.8
27 2012/01 41.4
28 2016/11 38.7
29 2012/11 35.2
30 2017/12 31.3

Now, here are all the games with game score (as well as a column - GSNoMOV that indicates what the Game Score would be, in a win, for just winning by 1).

GSRank Year Date Venue Opp PA Ivy PF WL GS GSNoMOV
1062 61 2018 2017-11-15 H Navy 45 pennsylvania 66 W 95.7 29.9
1469 231 2018 2017-11-14 H South Carolina State 54 yale 86 W 84.9 4.4
891 244 2018 2017-12-02 A Kentucky 79 harvard 70 L 83.9 NA
622 254 2018 2017-11-27 A Delaware 66 yale 76 W 83.2 52.5
1438 303 2018 2017-11-24 N Saint Joseph's 71 harvard 77 W 79.9 63.0
1054 304 2018 2017-11-25 A Monmouth 96 pennsylvania 101 W 79.9 69.7
1583 333 2018 2017-11-10 A Villanova 75 columbia 60 L 77.9 NA
922 363 2018 2017-11-22 H Lafayette 46 princeton 60 W 76.3 17.2
220 414 2018 2017-11-26 A Bryant 67 brown 81 W 72.8 26.1
1115 446 2018 2017-11-20 N Northern Illinois 80 pennsylvania 93 W 70.6 33.1
408 460 2018 2017-11-29 A Connecticut 77 columbia 73 L 69.4 NA
639 490 2018 2017-11-27 A Duquesne 71 cornell 78 W 67.3 43.2
19 506 2018 2017-12-02 A Albany (NY) 86 columbia 82 L 65.9 NA
667 510 2018 2017-11-26 A Fairleigh Dickinson 76 princeton 83 W 65.5 42.5
23 520 2018 2017-11-22 A Alcorn State 73 yale 87 W 65.1 22.2
248 532 2018 2017-11-12 A Butler 85 princeton 75 L 64.5 NA
1138 647 2018 2017-11-17 A Penn State 79 columbia 65 L 56.7 NA
1373 678 2018 2017-11-13 A Quinnipiac 72 brown 79 W 54.1 30.4
72 679 2018 2017-11-13 H Binghamton 84 cornell 94 W 54.0 26.7
507 687 2018 2017-11-10 A Creighton 92 yale 76 L 53.5 NA
219 700 2018 2017-11-29 H Bryant 67 yale 84 W 53.1 9.8
18 714 2018 2017-11-17 A Albany (NY) 80 yale 72 L 52.2 NA
1533 806 2018 2017-11-24 H Toledo 77 cornell 80 W 45.8 36.3
1014 814 2018 2017-11-12 H Massachusetts 67 harvard 70 W 45.4 34.5
956 853 2018 2017-11-14 A Longwood 77 columbia 87 W 42.8 17.0
1584 866 2018 2017-11-29 A Villanova 90 pennsylvania 62 L 41.7 NA
1541 887 2018 2017-11-22 N UMKC 65 pennsylvania 68 W 40.1 29.4
297 888 2018 2017-11-25 A Colgate 77 columbia 71 L 40.1 NA
989 891 2018 2017-11-18 A Manhattan 73 harvard 69 L 39.9 NA
1574 898 2018 2017-11-25 H Vermont 79 yale 73 L 39.4 NA
1535 932 2018 2017-11-21 N Towson 79 pennsylvania 71 L 37.0 NA
52 965 2018 2017-11-21 A Army 88 columbia 78 L 35.0 NA
944 1051 2018 2017-11-25 H Long Island University 86 brown 94 W 29.9 14.5
660 1059 2018 2017-11-11 A Fairfield 80 pennsylvania 72 L 29.4 NA
1532 1078 2018 2017-12-02 A Texas Christian 92 yale 66 L 28.2 NA
1372 1080 2018 2017-11-11 A Quinnipiac 78 dartmouth 77 L 28.1 NA
1439 1094 2018 2017-11-18 A Saint Joseph's 71 princeton 58 L 27.1 NA
845 1095 2018 2017-11-16 A Holy Cross 73 harvard 69 L 26.9 NA
900 1098 2018 2017-11-13 H La Salle 75 pennsylvania 71 L 26.7 NA
298 1163 2018 2017-11-16 A Colgate 72 cornell 61 L 23.1 NA
94 1175 2018 2017-11-15 H Brigham Young 65 princeton 56 L 22.2 NA
1443 1194 2018 2017-11-23 H Saint Mary's (CA) 89 harvard 71 L 21.3 NA
1488 1229 2018 2017-11-19 A St. Francis (NY) 77 brown 74 L 20.0 NA
1385 1233 2018 2017-11-28 A Rhode Island 86 brown 62 L 19.8 NA
962 1234 2018 2017-11-28 H Loyola (MD) 63 dartmouth 64 W 19.8 17.4
252 1263 2018 2017-11-26 A Cal State Fullerton 70 harvard 61 L 17.8 NA
1510 1285 2018 2017-11-22 A Stony Brook 77 brown 64 L 16.5 NA
1111 1317 2018 2017-11-30 A Northeastern 77 harvard 61 L 14.5 NA
1112 1334 2018 2017-12-02 A Northeastern 84 cornell 66 L 13.8 NA
1608 1355 2018 2017-11-12 A Wisconsin 89 yale 61 L 12.9 NA
257 1364 2018 2017-12-02 A Canisius 73 dartmouth 60 L 12.6 NA
932 1385 2018 2017-11-29 H Lehigh 85 princeton 76 L 11.8 NA
1032 1432 2018 2017-12-02 N Miami (FL) 80 princeton 52 L 9.6 NA
20 1441 2018 2017-11-22 H Albany (NY) 91 dartmouth 73 L 9.4 NA
1023 1498 2018 2017-11-19 A Massachusetts-Lowell 98 cornell 78 L 7.3 NA
271 1537 2018 2017-12-02 H Central Connecticut State 68 brown 62 L 5.4 NA
1518 1611 2018 2017-11-10 A Syracuse 77 cornell 45 L 2.5 NA
1043 1711 2018 2017-11-10 H MIT 64 harvard 73 W NA NA
880 1712 2018 2017-11-11 H Johnson & Wales (RI) 78 brown 106 W NA NA
650 1713 2018 2017-11-14 H Emerson 43 dartmouth 78 W NA NA
1131 1714 2018 2017-11-18 H Penn St. - Brandywine 40 pennsylvania 99 W NA NA
508 1715 2018 2017-11-19 H Curry 42 yale 107 W NA NA

And finally, here's just looking at the wins... the best thus far (again, no MOV):

GSRank Year Date Venue Opp PA Ivy PF WL GS GSNoMOV
1054 304 2018 2017-11-25 A Monmouth 96 pennsylvania 101 W 79.9 69.7
1438 303 2018 2017-11-24 N Saint Joseph's 71 harvard 77 W 79.9 63.0
622 254 2018 2017-11-27 A Delaware 66 yale 76 W 83.2 52.5
639 490 2018 2017-11-27 A Duquesne 71 cornell 78 W 67.3 43.2
667 510 2018 2017-11-26 A Fairleigh Dickinson 76 princeton 83 W 65.5 42.5
1533 806 2018 2017-11-24 H Toledo 77 cornell 80 W 45.8 36.3
1014 814 2018 2017-11-12 H Massachusetts 67 harvard 70 W 45.4 34.5
1115 446 2018 2017-11-20 N Northern Illinois 80 pennsylvania 93 W 70.6 33.1
1373 678 2018 2017-11-13 A Quinnipiac 72 brown 79 W 54.1 30.4
1062 61 2018 2017-11-15 H Navy 45 pennsylvania 66 W 95.7 29.9
1541 887 2018 2017-11-22 N UMKC 65 pennsylvania 68 W 40.1 29.4
72 679 2018 2017-11-13 H Binghamton 84 cornell 94 W 54.0 26.7
220 414 2018 2017-11-26 A Bryant 67 brown 81 W 72.8 26.1
23 520 2018 2017-11-22 A Alcorn State 73 yale 87 W 65.1 22.2
962 1234 2018 2017-11-28 H Loyola (MD) 63 dartmouth 64 W 19.8 17.4
922 363 2018 2017-11-22 H Lafayette 46 princeton 60 W 76.3 17.2
956 853 2018 2017-11-14 A Longwood 77 columbia 87 W 42.8 17.0
944 1051 2018 2017-11-25 H Long Island University 86 brown 94 W 29.9 14.5
219 700 2018 2017-11-29 H Bryant 67 yale 84 W 53.1 9.8
1469 231 2018 2017-11-14 H South Carolina State 54 yale 86 W 84.9 4.4
1043 1711 2018 2017-11-10 H MIT 64 harvard 73 W NA NA
880 1712 2018 2017-11-11 H Johnson & Wales (RI) 78 brown 106 W NA NA
650 1713 2018 2017-11-14 H Emerson 43 dartmouth 78 W NA NA
1131 1714 2018 2017-11-18 H Penn St. - Brandywine 40 pennsylvania 99 W NA NA
508 1715 2018 2017-11-19 H Curry 42 yale 107 W NA NA

 
20Penn14 
Junior
Posts: 265

Reg: 02-26-12
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-03-17 04:03 PM - Post#238912    
    In response to mrjames

What does GSNoMOV stand for again?

 
20Penn14 
Junior
Posts: 265

Reg: 02-26-12
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-03-17 04:03 PM - Post#238913    
    In response to 20Penn14

Just reread the post and there it is. My bad

Edited by 20Penn14 on 12-03-17 04:04 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 10122

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-03-17 04:30 PM - Post#238915    
    In response to 20Penn14

Penn is blameless for our December start. It's everyone else's fault!



 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3355

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-04-17 10:10 AM - Post#238957    
    In response to penn nation

Who was announced as done for the year? I'm assuming Mason is one of them, which wouldn't be a surprise.


 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
12-04-17 10:11 AM - Post#238958    
    In response to TheLine

Boudreaux and Bruner for the year, Mason for the non-conf slate (though, foot injuries... so easy to re-break if you rush it).

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3355

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-04-17 10:17 AM - Post#238962    
    In response to mrjames

OK, no surprises. And yes, better to be conservative with foot injuries.

Yale is probably the favorite even without Mason.


 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 644

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
12-10-17 08:52 AM - Post#239900    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:

Yale is probably the favorite even without Mason.



Remarkable performance by Yale on the road against a very good St. Bonvaventure team with two outstanding guards. Oni their best player, did not play due to an illness. St. Bonnie's had beaten Maryland on the road earlier. 3 pt game with 10 minutes to go. Announcers commented that NBA scouts were attending the game to watch St. B two guards and Oni.

It is a very good story that Coach Jones has kept this team together thru the adversity of losing Mason and Bruner. They play tough and they play hard. Some have questioned their ability to compete due to the injuries and lack of depth but they seem to never go away year after recent year.

KenPom currently has the rankings as Yale, Penn, Harvard, and Princeton for the four spots with a pretty big drop down to Columbia. Time will tell.

 
weinhauers_ghost 58
Masters Student
Posts: 869

Age: 58
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-10-17 03:58 PM - Post#239923    
    In response to bradley

Columbia lost a home game by 73-68 to the same Navy team Penn destroyed in Philly back in November. Interestingly, they coughed up a double digit lead in a game where Mike Smith had 28 points and a couple of their freshmen shot lights out from long distance in the first half.

I think Columbia has some defensive issues that need to be ironed out. They can score, though.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 240

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
12-10-17 04:36 PM - Post#239925    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Kenpom projected Ivy records:
Yale 9-5
Penn 9-5
Harvard 8-6
Princeton 8-6
The winner of the tournment could have a losing record overall.


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3343

Reg: 02-04-06
12-10-17 04:38 PM - Post#239926    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

I think the Tigers will get it turned around and be a lot better than that in IL play.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3003

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
12-10-17 05:18 PM - Post#239928    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
I think the Tigers will get it turned around and be a lot better than that in IL play.



Have you been talking to Judson Wallace?

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 644

Age: 68
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-10-17 05:22 PM - Post#239929    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Brown and Cornell may have just as good a chance to get in the final four as Columbia. Then again, is anyone guaranteed to get in the final four based on the quality of play to date??

The irony is some fans who were big "fans" of the IL Tournament based on the premise that it gives everyone a chance to go the Big Dance may be surprised if their team wins the regular season.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-10-17 05:34 PM - Post#239930    
    In response to weinhauers_ghost

Rather long post, but we're a month in, so we're far enough along to have some more concrete thoughts about the season to date and where it might be headed.

Here are the Ivy efficiencies and overall rank for JUST the games to date (i.e. NO preseason weighting):
1) Penn 102 ORAT, 99 DRAT (134)
2) Yale 104 ORAT, 104 DRAT (157)
3) Harvard 96 ORAT, 100 DRAT (205)
4) Columbia 102 ORAT, 109 DRAT (234)
5) Brown 97 ORAT, 105 DRAT (241)
6) Princeton 101 ORAT, 109 DRAT (243)
7) Cornell 100 ORAT, 112 DRAT (273)
8) Dartmouth 98 ORAT, 114 DRAT (309)

In some ways, it is exactly the season that we all expected. Brown, Columbia and Cornell have been frisky at times, but bad at others. Penn has been solidly in the mid-100s, but no real threat to crack the Top 100. In other ways, it's been a product of circumstance. Dartmouth loses Boudreaux right before the season... what do you expect? Yale loses Mason and Bruner... what do you expect?

In still other ways, though, it's nowhere close to what we expected. Harvard and Princeton have been shockingly poor. Let's start there.

Princeton's run last year was powered by defense, allowing opponents just 1.19 points per possession on layups, which was 50% further ahead of 2nd-place Harvard (1.34 ppp) than Harvard was of 7th-place Dartmouth. This year, Princeton is still in the Ivy lead at allowing 1.35 ppp on layups, but it's just 0.05 ppp away from being 7th. That is, there's no longer anything elite about Princeton's rim defense. This season, opponents are making a higher percentage of shots at the rim than opponents were even on just the unblocked shots last season.

The good news for Princeton is that some of its woes are luck-based. The Tigers are allowing opponents 1.23 ppp on 2PT Js, which is unbelievable and should regress (no Ivy allowed more than 1.05 for the season last year) and 1.65 from the FT line (no Ivy allowed higher than 1.56). That should make the Princeton defense look better than it has, but...

Princeton won the league last year because it won the TO battle in EVERY SINGLE GAME. In fact, in its two closest near losses were the two Harvard games and it won the TO Rate battle in those games by 27%-16% and 28%-8%. This year, that script has flipped: Princeton has gone from +5pp in TO Rate to -2.5pp. And the Tigers are already getting 1.41ppp on offensive possessions with a 3 (which leads the league and is 0.08ppp higher than the leader from last year), 1.14 ppp on 2PT Js (also 0.08ppp higher than last year's leader and likely unsustainable). And Princeton's offense on layups has been just 1.13 ppp, which is awful - but that's the area of the court most controlled by the defense and not as likely to improve by mere regression alone.

Where that leaves us is with a Princeton team that should improve DRAMATICALLY over its current 269th rating in defensive efficiency but one that may not have a ton of room to improve upon its 193 rated offensive efficiency.

On to Harvard, which is a completely different animal. The 105 offensive rating on 3s is possibly the most shocking number over this time period that I've ever seen. Last year, Harvard led the league in ORAT on poss with a 3 at 133. From that team it lost the two worst three-point shooters to have taken at least 20 threes and now it is nearly 0.3 ppp worse. For a team like Harvard that would usually have about 20-30 offensive poss with a 3 per game, we're talking about 5.5 - 8.5 points per game that Harvard is leaving on the table (or per 100 poss, about 8-12 pts). On threes alone, Harvard would shoot from 278th in offensive efficiency at 95.7 to somewhere from 100th-150th. Combine that with Harvard's 124th-ranked D currently, the Crimson would instantly be the top team in the conference, before even solving for any of the other issues.

And those issues abound. Harvard's insane steals allowed rate on offense has led to 7% of opponent shots being in transition off of takeaways (which are resulting in oppts shooting 62% on those shots). The bloated turnover rate is tough for an offense that, at Fordham, for instance, only scored 0.89 points per NON-TURNOVER possession, but the pressure that it puts on the defense is great as well. Every steal Harvard allows costs it not only the point or so expectation on offense, but fractions of points defensively over the expectation from normal defense.

The good news for Harvard is that once it starts scoring more, it will get more chances to set its defense. Currently in the 41% of possessions that come after a score, opponents are only shooting 42 eFG%. That does gloss a bit over the fact that Harvard has been really poor across the board at defending the rim (usually after getting caught in rotation and forced to either foul or concede easy attempts inside), and the failure to figure that out will continue to be a drag on any improvement in defensive efficiency.

Right now, if I had to put my money on which team will post the best efficiency margin from here on out, I think I'd pick Harvard.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-10-17 05:44 PM - Post#239931    
    In response to mrjames

And a bit more on some of the other teams here (who have all played a little more to script thus far):

It is pretty shocking how well Yale has played without Mason and Bruner, especially because this team has been better offensively (149th nationally) than defensively (183rd). Oni and Reynolds have been good, but Copeland taking another step forward in the face of highly-regressable peripherals and Atkinson and Swain having big freshmen years has somehow kept this team afloat until they get Mason back soon.

Yale's struggling with turnovers, much like Harvard, but should improve as well, as Mason should be a steadying force. Also, Yale has flipped its recent 3PT rate script, now taking many more than its opponents, which is great from a style perspective.

With Mason back, could easily see Yale as a fringe Top 100 team.

Penn's been discussed ad nauseam already, but the team has some real regression warning signs defensively, but at the same time it's been a fringe Top 100 defense and the best in the league, so if that 116 DRAT on 3PT possessions keeps rising a smidge, that's not going to change that this is a pretty good defensive unit (maybe 125th-150th nationally). The Quakers' jump shooting has been pretty mediocre, but it's getting enough layups and not turning the ball over that it's scratching together a Top 200 offense. That should be enough to keep Penn around the 150s and, in this Ivy League, in solid Ivy Tourney position.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-10-17 05:48 PM - Post#239932    
    In response to mrjames

As for the rest... Dartmouth looks to be solidly 8th. Cornell and Columbia are pretty similar - good enough offenses to compete, but the defenses need work. (I actually like Cornell's to regress slightly more).

Brown is actually playing okay D, but the offense is still struggling for long stretches. Could see any of those three teams putting together a little run to dislodge one of HYPP (maybe Princeton being most likely?).

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3325

Reg: 11-23-04
12-10-17 08:05 PM - Post#239938    
    In response to mrjames

I agree that Brown's D is improving, TOs have been a problem, but they were better in the last game. I am posting here so I can say "I told you so" later.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 10122

Reg: 12-02-04
12-10-17 08:32 PM - Post#239940    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

  • JadwinGeorge Said:
Kenpom projected Ivy records:
Yale 9-5
Penn 9-5
Harvard 8-6
Princeton 8-6
The winner of the tournment could have a losing record overall.




OTOH, if Penn does reasonably well during IL play there might be serious NIT consideration down the line, which hasn't ever happened since I've been following the team.


 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Masters Student
Posts: 928

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
12-11-17 01:03 AM - Post#239949    
    In response to penn nation

A couple of NIT qualifying questions:

1. Now that we have a tournament, is it correct that the Ivy Regular season winner gets an NIT spot if it loses the Ivy tournament?

2. How low does the NIT go when handing out at large bids. Best research I could come up with is that Tennessee (RPI#81) didn't get into the NIT last year. I think this goes along with the fact that - with 32 auto bids - the NCAA's last at large slot seems to go to a team around RPI#45 or so.

Seems like the only way we get a team into the NIT is if that team wins the league but loses the tournament (if I have that correct).

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 10122

Reg: 12-02-04
2017-18 Ivy Performance
12-11-17 07:55 AM - Post#239952    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

That was a 16-16 Tennessee team which tied for 9th in the SEC with a below .500 conference record.

Edited by penn nation on 12-11-17 08:00 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
 Page 1 of 2 ALL12
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

1204 Views




Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.105 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 04:56 AM
Top