UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1116
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-15-17 11:47 PM - Post#240298
I thought I would kill some time during this break to compare this year’s Pomeroy results to last year’s Ivy stats when Betley was playing. That’s the best comparison.
First, the overall rank is way better 129-167. 129 is not enough to be a contender in a normal Ivy year, but is a nice improvement, clearly statistically significant. The program is on an acceptable course 291, 253, 167 now 129. Surely another increment of improvement is possible that would get the number below 100. I would put the issue of ‘structural’ disadvantage this way. This program can get to contention level (sub 100) and stay there. From 2002 through 2007 Penn was below 100 EVERY year. Perhaps Harvard, Princeton and Yale could use their structural advantages to get below 50 occasionally but, since 2002, it has happened only three times, Yale at 47 in 2016, Harvard at 32 in 2014 and, oh yeah, Penn at 48 in 2003. I guess if you are in Ithaca, Providence, New Yuck, Hanover, or maybe even Princeton you should be worried about this structural thing, but not in Wess Fiwy.
Now for the details of 2017. I’ll just handle the highlights, things that have changed.
Turnovers -- on both O and D are down by about 2 per game. The reduction in D turnovers raises the theme of reduced interior D, something we will see more emphasis on below.
Rebounding -- As reported elsewhere, D rebounding is waaaay better, 5 percentage points better. Say what you want about Max on O but he pounds the boards. Betley, Foreman, Scott, Simmons, AJ, Woods and Jones have good numbers as well. Jones leads the team in the Pomeroy stat. I suspect he will be getting more time.
3% -- No apparent improvement on O but a big one on D, almost 9 % points. Mike J discounts this, rightly, but the 3a/fga ratio is also down almost 8 points. Clearly, they have the D focused more on the perimeter. That leads to more 2’s, D has regressed 4 points, but the net is smart.
2% on O – Down by 2.4 points – here is where Matt is missed.
FT shooting -- O 6.5 points WORSE than last year’s disaster. Only an 8 point drop in their opponents has saved them. The Ivy’s won’t shoot that bad at the line. Steve had better be right about the expected improvement.
Assist% -- Down by 12 points on D. Maybe it is all the missed threes, but the change is impressive.
Mix of offense – almost the same on O but way down on 3’s on D. There’s that theme again.
Schedule – slightly easier on Offense and slightly harder on defense. That may be the change in conference play. The Ivy’s are relatively better on O, I believe.
Bench -- producing much less on offense, a surprise given Caleb and Sam’s production.
Experience -- up .4 years
Height -- Surprizingly, the same despite playing two bigs.
The big change in the individual stats is the move of AJ from major contributor to Role player. Max has taken his place at much lower production. If Steve can fix that by January this team could make a nice additional jump this year.
In summary -- A continuation of current performance gets them the 1 seed in the tournament, 98 points ahead of Columbia in fifth place. 20-10 overall and 9-5 in the league. This would put the program a full year ahead of Franny’s pace. Add a first-rate player next year, Jelani or Wang and we might forget the trip across the desert.
One more point --- I was very pessimistic early on. What’s changed? It’s the improvement on defense and the emergence of Sam and Caleb from three. However, the players who have 40 or more minutes are shooting 38% overall. That is a huge improvement over the two early games. I said at the time there was no signs of improvement. There weren’t in that small sample I overreacted to. But after tacking on an 8-2 run with losses to only the two sub 100 teams, things are looking much better. I should also point out the obvious fact that only three of their games have been at home. In the remaining 18 games only the seven Ivy road games remain. Everything else is in the Cathedral of Basketball.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32683
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Comparison to last year 12-16-17 09:42 AM - Post#240304
In response to UPIA1968
I don't know how, if you watch this team, that you doubt that the defensive improvement is "real" or may revert to last year's norm. We are better at all aspects of defense. With Antonio and Foreman, we get out to almost every shot and are better able to fight through screens. With the 2 bigs, we are not getting killed on the boards and giving as many second chances. And Betley is great.
Howard was a very nice player, but we have a better mix this year. Donahue is able to play defense more aggressively. Also, our ball movement on offense is better--that Dayton game was almost a clinic at times on keeping the pass ahead of the defense. What we lack is shooting with that lineup, but what seems to be happening is that they can break out to leads and then bring in the shooters. It's working. I like it.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Comparison to last year 12-16-17 06:48 PM - Post#240347
In response to UPIA1968
Solid stuff - only edit I'd make is that Cornell 2010 and Harvard 2012 were two others that finished in the Top 50 of KenPom.
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Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts: 309
Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
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Re: Comparison to last year 12-18-17 04:00 PM - Post#240475
In response to mrjames
Also, Penn in 2002 and Princeton last year were both 58, and I would argue create a dividing line that includes them among the best teams as none of the other league champions over the KenPom historical data were 75+
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Okoro Dude
Senior
Posts: 309
Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
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Re: Comparison to last year 12-18-17 04:00 PM - Post#240476
In response to Okoro Dude
Should have said all of the others are 75+
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Comparison to last year 12-18-17 05:21 PM - Post#240477
In response to Okoro Dude
Yeah, arbitrary whole number cutoffs often miss pretty similar examples. See: Column 1 and Column 2 breaks on those pesky NCAA Team Sheets...
Believe Harvard was Top 75 as champ/co-champ a couple other times, too...
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1150
Reg: 07-28-07
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12-18-17 11:33 PM - Post#240489
In response to mrjames
While I know that RPI is different, Penn is 101 in RPI ratings. Next closest Ivy is Cornell at 125 and Yale at 167. As Princeton is 229, I really like this rating system.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 354
Reg: 03-25-09
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12-19-17 03:12 PM - Post#240538
In response to SteveChop
where is Havaad rated?
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