palestra38
Professor
Posts: 33567
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-20-17 04:54 PM - Post#240826
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
Of course, knowing this, Monty could only offer that choice to change when the item is actually behind the chosen door.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3789
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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12-20-17 04:57 PM - Post#240827
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
It’s a posterior probability problem. Like I said, Look to Reverend Bayes for guidance. He was Isaac Newton’s math tutor, so he probably knew what he was talking about.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3601
Reg: 02-15-15
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12-20-17 05:23 PM - Post#240830
In response to palestra38
Of course, knowing this, Monty could only offer that choice to change when the item is actually behind the chosen door.
No, he could offer it all the time. He just has to reveal the door with no car. The information Monty reveals is "insider info", he is never going to show you the car and ask you to choose.
Love the Monty Hall dilemma and loved the show too...
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 61
Reg: 07-07-09
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12-20-17 05:29 PM - Post#240832
In response to PennFan10
It's the same as the principal of restricted choice.
Your choices are A, B and C. You pick A.
If it is A you win by sticking to A.
If it is B, Monty shows you C. You win by switching.
If it is C, Monty shows you B. You win by switching.
Switching is right 2/3 of the time.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 33567
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-20-17 05:34 PM - Post#240833
In response to PennFan10
Yes, if he offers it all the time, the switch wins. But did anyone ever actually review the tape to see if he offered it all the time? I seem to recall that sometimes he offered a box or an envelope in exchange for the curtain.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 61
Reg: 07-07-09
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12-20-17 05:42 PM - Post#240836
In response to palestra38
I think KenPom calculated Monty's BD3* numbers.
*Behind Door 3
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3601
Reg: 02-15-15
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12-20-17 05:49 PM - Post#240838
In response to palestra38
Yes, if he offers it all the time, the switch wins. But did anyone ever actually review the tape to see if he offered it all the time? I seem to recall that sometimes he offered a box or an envelope in exchange for the curtain.
Yes, I reviewed the tape. He always offers it. He sometimes offers an envelope or box in other games but usually only to grumpy, old empiricists who troll the show.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 33567
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-20-17 05:55 PM - Post#240840
In response to PennFan10
I'm never grumpy. Nor bashful.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 61
Reg: 07-07-09
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12-20-17 06:20 PM - Post#240844
In response to palestra38
Right now, I'm sure you can provide a layman's explanation, just as I was able to show Colin that there is no natural source of CO2 to explain the increased concentration in the atmosphere and that it is directly correlated to world temperature.
And Colin understood?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21891
Reg: 12-02-04
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12-20-17 06:28 PM - Post#240845
In response to TheLine
Right now, I'm sure you can provide a layman's explanation, just as I was able to show Colin that there is no natural source of CO2 to explain the increased concentration in the atmosphere and that it is directly correlated to world temperature.
And Colin understood?
Probably chalks it up to the seltzer machines running overtime in the Northeast.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 61
Reg: 07-07-09
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12-20-17 06:34 PM - Post#240846
In response to penn nation
Anyone who says CO2 can't possibly have an impact because it's a trace element in the atmosphere should try seeing what digesting a trace amount of arsenic does.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-20-17 07:52 PM - Post#240851
In response to TheLine
It’s always creepy when this hobby and my actual work cross, but the Monty Hall problem is actually my preso open for a workshop session I’m leading next month. This whole thread is weird, but that’s creepy.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4018
Reg: 11-23-04
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I'd like to have an argument, please. 12-20-17 08:15 PM - Post#240854
In response to mrjames
Hall is the wrong Monty.
Flying Fox of the Yard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNkjDuSVXiE
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4939
Reg: 02-04-06
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12-20-17 10:03 PM - Post#240860
In response to Old Bear
Cmon, Mike embrace the synchronicity.
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