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Username Post: I'd like to have an argument, please.        (Topic#20856)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
12-20-17 04:54 PM - Post#240826    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

Of course, knowing this, Monty could only offer that choice to change when the item is actually behind the chosen door.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3186

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
12-20-17 04:57 PM - Post#240827    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

It’s a posterior probability problem. Like I said, Look to Reverend Bayes for guidance. He was Isaac Newton’s math tutor, so he probably knew what he was talking about.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1702

Reg: 02-15-15
12-20-17 05:23 PM - Post#240830    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Of course, knowing this, Monty could only offer that choice to change when the item is actually behind the chosen door.



No, he could offer it all the time. He just has to reveal the door with no car. The information Monty reveals is "insider info", he is never going to show you the car and ask you to choose.

Love the Monty Hall dilemma and loved the show too...


 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-20-17 05:29 PM - Post#240832    
    In response to PennFan10

It's the same as the principal of restricted choice.

Your choices are A, B and C. You pick A.

If it is A you win by sticking to A.

If it is B, Monty shows you C. You win by switching.

If it is C, Monty shows you B. You win by switching.

Switching is right 2/3 of the time.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
12-20-17 05:34 PM - Post#240833    
    In response to PennFan10

Yes, if he offers it all the time, the switch wins. But did anyone ever actually review the tape to see if he offered it all the time? I seem to recall that sometimes he offered a box or an envelope in exchange for the curtain.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-20-17 05:42 PM - Post#240836    
    In response to palestra38

I think KenPom calculated Monty's BD3* numbers.


*Behind Door 3


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1702

Reg: 02-15-15
12-20-17 05:49 PM - Post#240838    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Yes, if he offers it all the time, the switch wins. But did anyone ever actually review the tape to see if he offered it all the time? I seem to recall that sometimes he offered a box or an envelope in exchange for the curtain.



Yes, I reviewed the tape. He always offers it. He sometimes offers an envelope or box in other games but usually only to grumpy, old empiricists who troll the show.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
12-20-17 05:55 PM - Post#240840    
    In response to PennFan10

I'm never grumpy. Nor bashful.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-20-17 06:20 PM - Post#240844    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Right now, I'm sure you can provide a layman's explanation, just as I was able to show Colin that there is no natural source of CO2 to explain the increased concentration in the atmosphere and that it is directly correlated to world temperature.


And Colin understood?


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11106

Reg: 12-02-04
12-20-17 06:28 PM - Post#240845    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:
  • palestra38 Said:
Right now, I'm sure you can provide a layman's explanation, just as I was able to show Colin that there is no natural source of CO2 to explain the increased concentration in the atmosphere and that it is directly correlated to world temperature.


And Colin understood?




Probably chalks it up to the seltzer machines running overtime in the Northeast.


 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
12-20-17 06:34 PM - Post#240846    
    In response to penn nation

Anyone who says CO2 can't possibly have an impact because it's a trace element in the atmosphere should try seeing what digesting a trace amount of arsenic does.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5233

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
12-20-17 07:52 PM - Post#240851    
    In response to TheLine

It’s always creepy when this hobby and my actual work cross, but the Monty Hall problem is actually my preso open for a workshop session I’m leading next month. This whole thread is weird, but that’s creepy.

 
Old Bear 
Postdoc
Posts: 3424

Reg: 11-23-04
I'd like to have an argument, please.
12-20-17 08:15 PM - Post#240854    
    In response to mrjames

Hall is the wrong Monty.

Flying Fox of the Yard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNkjDuSVXiE



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3492

Reg: 02-04-06
12-20-17 10:03 PM - Post#240860    
    In response to Old Bear

Cmon, Mike embrace the synchronicity.

 
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