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Username Post: IL Schedule        (Topic#20899)
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
12-30-17 07:27 PM - Post#241639    

Princeton plays five out of their first six IL games at home -- strange. Needless to say with the schedule, they need to get off to a good start. The schedule may help a bit with the amount of playing time that the freshmen are getting but you never know. Fortunately, with the non-conference schedule, the freshmen experienced playing in hostile environments.

**Butler knocked Nova today at Hinkle Fieldhouse -- they had a 21 pt lead with 9 minutes to go. Hard to believe that Tigers did not get demolished -- game #1.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
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Reg: 02-04-06
12-30-17 11:46 PM - Post#241650    
    In response to bradley

Both teams were probably not yet at their best. Butler is a good team that always gives itself a chance.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
12-31-17 09:15 AM - Post#241658    
    In response to SRP

Fourteen games later, a young Tiger team does look very different. The likelihood that this year's team goes into the regular IL season as the top ranked team is amazing after watching them come off the Jadwin floor at halftime against Lehigh. In fairness, part of the reason for the ranking is due to the non-conference play of the league but Coach got them to ramp up their intensity level on defense and rebounding.

Opening game should be a good challenge at the Palestra. Can the Tigers smother the Penn shooters as they did last year in the two regular season games? There were times that Penn could not even get off shots -- or has Penn improved significantly from last year? Hard to predict based on the strength of Penn's non-conference opponents.

 
Eric Von Zipper 
Freshman
Posts: 69

Age: 65
Reg: 11-11-17
12-31-17 10:10 AM - Post#241660    
    In response to bradley

For what it's worth, the teams Pennsylvania has defeated so far this season are a combined 37-74.

Only Navy (9-5) and Northern Illinois (7-6) have winning records.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
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Reg: 11-23-04
12-31-17 10:34 AM - Post#241661    
    In response to Eric Von Zipper

Hey, but look out for that team that beat up on Delaware State !

 
sparman 
Masters Student
Posts: 877
sparman
Reg: 12-08-04
12-31-17 11:24 AM - Post#241664    
    In response to Tiger69

I'll make fun of Penn's schedule after we beat them, not before.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
IL Schedule
12-31-17 11:40 AM - Post#241665    
    In response to Tiger69

Ivy Strength of Schedules:

45 Harvard
65 Princeton
99 Yale
136 Columbia
225 Cornell
262 Penn
321 Brown
325 Dartmouth

Dartmouth (BC, UVM), Penn (Temple, St. Josephs), Harvard (UVM, Wofford) and Yale (Georgia Tech) have scheduled tough games into January. Columbia (Sarah Lawrence), Princeton (Rowan) and Cornell (Central Pennsylvania College) have not. Brown (NJIT) has an Ivy-like contest remaining.

Also interesting to note that almost all Ivy squads have primarily played away from home (including neutral sites):
Princeton (4 of 14 at home)
Yale (5 of 15)
Columbia (4 of 12)
Cornell (4 of 12)
Dartmouth (4 of 11)
Harvard (5 of 13)
Brown (5 of 12)

The outlier (in-lier?) is Penn (8 of 14 at the Palestra). In fact, other than a jaunt to Connecticut (Fairfield), Penn has only left the Keystone state to play single games in Ohio, NJ, DC and Connecticut. Unless they make a tournament, Penn and Columbia look to be the only Ivy squads not to have boarded a plane (presuming Columbia bused to Longwood in Virginia)!

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 12-31-17 11:50 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
12-31-17 12:12 PM - Post#241666    
    In response to Eric Von Zipper

There has been a suggestion that the Tigers should play a weak schedule and rack up a bunch of non-conference wins followed up by a strong IL regular season to ensure a NCAA bid regardless of the IL Tournament results. Problem with the theory is that the computers have caught up with this type of strategy as reflected in Penn's KenPom ranking with a 9-5 record. Even if Penn had a 11-3 and possibly 12-2 non-conference record this year, it would be unlikely based on the performance of the IL teams in non-conference play in addition to Penn's schedule.

Remember -- one of the arguments for the IL Tournament was the increased possibility of getting 2 IL teams to the Big Dance????

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
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Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: IL Schedule
12-31-17 02:08 PM - Post#241669    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Huh? Penn played 9 of 14 games away from the Palestra, including an 8 game stretch away from home that lasted 39 days.

Our schedule is definitely weaker than normal and I expect that will come back to standard in the seasons to come. We had to learn to win again so I am fine with this year. Very similar to Sydney Johnson led Princeton when he was bringing your own program back to life (check out your own schedules in 2009 and 2010).

 
bradley 
Masters Student
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Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: IL Schedule
12-31-17 02:19 PM - Post#241670    
    In response to Mike Porter

I think that it made good perfectly good sense for Penn to play a weaker non-conference schedule this year as they are probably in a midst of a comeback. I do think some Penn fans may have gotten a little carried away with this year's non-conference record as to how it might lead to being the IL regular season favorite --- but fans are fans.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
12-31-17 02:28 PM - Post#241672    
    In response to bradley

Correction: the site I was using didn't denote the Gulf Coast Showcase correctly.

Penn looks to have played 5 of 14 at home.



 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1748

Reg: 02-15-15
01-01-18 11:42 AM - Post#241685    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

As well as flights to Dayton and Florida for Penn. They played a stretch of 8 road games in a row on the road

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-01-18 11:58 AM - Post#241686    
    In response to PennFan10

I stand corrected - again - even on Harvard who has actually only played 3 of 13 at Lavietes. 10 of last 11 on the road, as well as 6 of next 8. That's only 5 of first 21 games at home.

I guess the point is that all Ivies play most OOC on the road. Shame that some of our precious few OOC home games come when students are on break.



 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2263

Reg: 11-23-04
01-01-18 12:22 PM - Post#241687    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

As I think we all have noticed, college sports, with the exception of perhaps football and basketball at large state universities, have lost their audience. One can cite many reasons. But, I wonder if it is possible, without altering the demographic of student bodies, for the Ivies to expand their following. I suppose that it is not important. But, it would be nice to have a bit more community following in addition to a few more students. Otherwise, we have essentially club sports and who needs the arenas? Is this wish hopelessly outdated?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: IL Schedule
01-01-18 09:34 PM - Post#241709    
    In response to bradley

What Penn fans have suggested Penn is the favorite? There have been a couple of 14-0 predictions, but those were not serious predictions -- just folks having fun.

We led in Pomeroy for a little while, but I think we generally were just pleased (and more than a little surprised) that things had worked that way.

Now, Princeton is clearly the favorite to repeat (at least for the regular season). If the current Pomeroy ranks were to hold through the Ivy season, I suppose Penn would be a slight favorite to win the tournament at home despite not having the highest ranking. Is that what you are referring to? That's not a Penn fan being overconfident -- that's just a fact based on the current numbers. I don't expect them to hold -- I think Harvard and Yale will outplay their OOC performance.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
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Reg: 11-22-04
01-01-18 09:42 PM - Post#241710    
    In response to bradley

There was no scenario where Penn had an at large chance this year. The question was whether Princeton, Harvard, and Yale were top 100 teams. That is who the conversation was about. If Penn came out playing top 100 basketball. That would be a truly remarkable jump. Penn is playing about where they realistically could get to. The fact that they are close to the top of the league is because the top teams have played on the lower range of what could be expected.

Next year we can start thinking about playing the type of schedule that HYP played.

As for suggesting playing an easier schedule for at large purposes, you are right -- it won't help land an at large. An Ivy will need to play a tough OOC schedule and win most of them. And having 4 top 100 teams in the conference will help as well.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: IL Schedule
01-02-18 12:43 PM - Post#241739    
    In response to SomeGuy

Just my opinion but expectations are set pretty low when there is an excitement of being the most highly ranked team with a 140+ KenPom rating, even for one day, especially for a historic programs like Penn or Princeton.

It is the same reaction to teams focused on just getting into the top four in order to play in the IL Tournament.

The attitude may be somewhat reflective of where the league is at this point and time but hopefully not.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11273

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: IL Schedule
01-02-18 02:16 PM - Post#241748    
    In response to bradley

It's more reflective of how bad this program has been for a decade. We are celebrating the fact that the floor has now been raised. Our ceiling is limited, but at least we are headed in the right direction.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: IL Schedule
01-02-18 07:16 PM - Post#241790    
    In response to bradley

Absolutely, but when you are coming from 300 or so a couple of years back, it takes time. So no, the ultimate expectation and hope is not for a 140 ranking. It 's just the reality of where we can be on the way up. This is the best Penn has been in 10 years, and with the exception of Rosen's senior year, it isn't close.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
Re: IL Schedule
01-03-18 11:07 AM - Post#241851    
    In response to SomeGuy

Seems to me that Penn has the opportunity to be competitive this year especially with the quality of play in the IL. Quakers should have a fighter's chance playing the Tigers, especially at home, as they can shoot the basketball. The possibility does exist that the Tigers revert back to their poor play thru a good segment of the first eight games of the season. If the Tigers play like the last six games -- different story.

After watching last night's game against Vermont and Penn's game against Toledo, a Penn offense with a Harvard defense would be a very good team. Conversely -- ugh.

I would not be surprised if Henderson puts Stephens on Betley and the Tigers offense has Stephens and Bell going to the basket with kick out options to Cannady and Much. Should be a good one.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1748

Reg: 02-15-15
01-03-18 11:14 AM - Post#241852    
    In response to bradley

I think the entire IL would struggle against Toledo shooting 61% from 3 and an otherwise very talented offense. I think SD is pretty comfortable with their defense thus far this year, second half of Toledo excepted.



 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-03-18 11:55 AM - Post#241856    
    In response to PennFan10

Only comment is that Toledo's and Tiger's season shooting stats (FG%, 3pt%, FT%) are virtually identical and Tiger's strength of schedule is significantly stronger but the beauty of basketball is that shots can fall or not fall on any given night. A good reason for Stephens and Bell to drive to the basket.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1748

Reg: 02-15-15
01-03-18 12:50 PM - Post#241871    
    In response to bradley

And if The Tigers shoot 61% from 3 while Penn shoots 28% the outcome will be definitive. Princeton’s shooting percentage relative to Toledo has nothing to do with it.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2263

Reg: 11-23-04
01-03-18 01:08 PM - Post#241872    
    In response to PennFan10

Ah, only two more days! Let the taunting begin.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-03-18 02:27 PM - Post#241882    
    In response to PennFan10

The beauty of BB is that we will find out how good the Penn D is over the next 14 games as well as how good or bad teams really are including the Tigers. The importance of Friday night, especially this year, would be even more meaningful if not for the dopey IL Tournament but always nice to get off to a good start especially for home teams.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11273

Reg: 12-02-04
01-03-18 03:06 PM - Post#241890    
    In response to bradley

Sadly the Ivy Tourney means, apparently, the end of the Tuesday Penn-Princeton games (let alone having the Penn-Princeton game be the final game of the regular season a la The Game in Ivy football).

But having it moved to Friday night means I can no longer follow the contest at all. I realize that Princeton's winter scheduling screws a lot of things up here, too. Hopefully in future years these games can be played on a different day or evening.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
01-03-18 07:10 PM - Post#241919    
    In response to penn nation

I'm worried because I'm not worried. Setting myself up for a fall and concerned that the team might too. But MH and the veterans should have them focused for an IL opener that's also a rivalry game. Also, the last time the Tigers lost in the Palestra was almost exactly four years ago., when Bell was a freshman.

 
dperry 
PhD Student
Posts: 1036
dperry
Loc: Oreland, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-03-18 07:23 PM - Post#241923    
    In response to penn nation

  • penn nation Said:
Sadly the Ivy Tourney means, apparently, the end of the Tuesday Penn-Princeton games (let alone having the Penn-Princeton game be the final game of the regular season a la The Game in Ivy football).

But having it moved to Friday night means I can no longer follow the contest at all. I realize that Princeton's winter scheduling screws a lot of things up here, too. Hopefully in future years these games can be played on a different day or evening.



The return match at Princeton is on Tuesday, February 6. I suspect we're stuck with the first game being on a weekend early on, as it seems like with the increased parity in the league, neither team wants to be playing 5 games in nine days more than once any more.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!"


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11273

Reg: 12-02-04
01-03-18 07:41 PM - Post#241926    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
I'm worried because I'm not worried. Setting myself up for a fall and concerned that the team might too. But MH and the veterans should have them focused for an IL opener that's also a rivalry game. Also, the last time the Tigers lost in the Palestra was almost exactly four years ago., when Bell was a freshman.



Princeton is due for a loss in a tight game against Penn. seems like it has won any number of games against the Quakers that could have gone the other way.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4584

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: IL Schedule
01-03-18 08:42 PM - Post#241933    
    In response to bradley

As others have pointed out, I think the Toledo game gave you a false impression of Penn. We've been better on defense than offense overall this year. I think we're #2 to Harvard thus far.

You're right, though, that the Toledo game may be a reason for Penn fans to worry about Friday -- Princeton is the only Ivy team that is close to Toledo offensively. And Princeton plays better D than Toledo (which isn't saying a whole lot, but it provides less margin for error for Penn).

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
01-03-18 09:22 PM - Post#241937    
    In response to penn nation

Yes, I am feeling irrational exuberance. Time to buy some bitcoin.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-03-18 10:08 PM - Post#241939    
    In response to SRP

Coach was interviewed by D. Jones on a podcast yesterday evening. He shared that Gladson is getting close to playing with a possibility that he might play some minutes on Friday night. Morales is out another 3 to 4 weeks ago with a fractured bone in his foot. He may be able to come back after the break.

Mitch said that it has taken several days to get over the jet lag and you could tell that is a bit of a concern. He expressed concern regarding the Penn guards -- more talk about Penn's offense but little as to their defense. Another challenge will be having the freshmen deal with their first IL game in a hostile environment. He stated that the Tiger team now has an edge to it that all started with revving up their defensive effort. The Tigers have been preparing one full week for the Penn game. You can tell that he is trying to get them incredibly focused on the defensive end.

Amir shared the keys to beating Penn: run shooters off the 3 pt line, playing the offense inside/out and limiting turnovers. Bell also talked about the goal for this year being the same as the prior 3 years, going 14-0 --- very little focus on the IL Tournament. The old coach talk "take it one game at a time".

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-04-18 09:52 AM - Post#241952    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
I'm worried because I'm not worried. Setting myself up for a fall and concerned that the team might too.




Understandable feelings based on their play over the last six games. Anything can happen in a given game, especially on the road, but going into the season, the Tigers have certainly played the best basketball in the league during this stretch of games. I am a little surprised as to the overall talent level that Henderson has assembled and molded with the infusion of the freshmen class. Let's hope that they do not revert to bad play displayed earlier in the season or get overconfident -- I doubt it but they are young. Anything can happen during the course of the IL season.





 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 70
Reg: 12-04-15
01-04-18 11:11 AM - Post#241958    
    In response to bradley

Of course, Bell's keys apply to any team you play. Not much news there. I really enjoyed the show. Derek Jones is very good and must be marked for bigger things as was his predecessor, Jon Sadak. I expect the Tigers to play well in The Cathedral; they usually do, winning twice in OT recently. Their last loss featured an egregious "no call" that should have given Will Barrett FT's. But the Tigers could play well and lose to this Penn team for sure. Last year's Palestra rout is the outlier in recent history. Let's hope the team bottomed out in the first half vs. Lehigh, probably the worst 20 minutes in the Henderson era. They will go as far as the defense can carry them and they have been getting better game by game for a month as the freshmen discovered that end of the floor. Watch the IvyHoopsOnline site for a podcast show hosted by the Dartmouth play by play team and featuring Quaker asst Bowman and Tiger asst McConnell. Should be fun.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
01-04-18 02:37 PM - Post#242008    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Too bad about Morales--I like the dimension he brings. If Gladson plays like the tantalizing tiny sample in Hawaii, that would be a plus.

I do feel that winning the turnover battle, within the normal structure of what the Tigers do, ought to be fairly predictive of victory during league play. Not many of these teams should be able to overcome getting fewer shot attempts than Princeton (although outlier shooting or fouling performance could tip it the other way occasionally). And I suspect that Princeton's OR percentage will tick up a bit in league vs. OOC play.

So I'm glad that MH has a focus on D. This team has lots of ways to score.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2263

Reg: 11-23-04
01-04-18 03:07 PM - Post#242012    
    In response to SRP

We still have not replaced the dynamic that Cook gave us going to the hoop last year. For that we may have to wait for the super freshman next year.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 788

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-04-18 03:25 PM - Post#242017    
    In response to SRP

Even with Cannady cooling down on 3 pt shooting during the West Coast trip, the Tigers are still shooting 39% on their 3 pt attempts. With the big 3 and Much on the floor, no one shoots below 39% individually and each player is a threat. Key is to keep moving the ball until someone has a good look.

They are shooting slightly higher than last year but the opponents are shooting 36%, 3 pts higher than 2016-2017. There are probably 1 or 2 IL teams that can put 3 high percentage 3 pt shooters on the floor at one time. Obvious downside on a given night is that the Tigers may shoot 20-25%. I would not be surprised if Bell and Stephens go to the hoop Friday night and kick out to Cannady, Much, DesRosiers or Young.



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3512

Reg: 02-04-06
01-04-18 07:18 PM - Post#242038    
    In response to bradley

They may also do some guard post-ups with Bell or Stephens (on a switch). I also think Schweger may be able to get a lot of good looks cutting to the hoop as the defense keeps its eyes on the other players.

 
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