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Username Post: Dartmouth        (Topic#20910)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-03-18 02:19 PM - Post#241880    

First, Vermont. No Bryce, but Vermont was missing Lamb (leading scorer).

Same story. Impressive defense by Harvard, holding Vermont to its lowest scoring game of the season after doing the same to Minnesota . Announcers marvelled at how Lewis shut down penetration (4+ blocks), but Vermont hit 10-18 three's and held on for a 6 point win. Corey Johnson, Bassey, Juzang, Djurucic and Towns all hit three's in the first half, but squad went 1-9 in second half. Chris Lewis was dominant in the paint on offense, hitting 6 of 8 shots.

Juzang improving as a point guard in the absence of Bryce and Tommy McCarthy. Haskett only played 3 minutes. Game turned when Harvard tuned the ball over on 4 of 5 consecutive possessions early in second half. Harvard did not score for first 6.5 minutes of that half.

Even with Bryce, Harvard's offense is limited. Without him, it's a big problem. Without Bryce, only one fast break basket vs Vermont (none vs GW).

Dartmouth on Saturday. Anyone know how Bryce's recovery is going?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-03-18 02:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
Re: Dartmouth
01-03-18 05:21 PM - Post#241906    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Sure sounds like Aiken is probable for Saturday. Will have some rust and will likely play less minutes, but his return should produce immediate dividends by opening things up for others. Key will be to keep Towns involved. He should be able to find more space with Aiken on the court as a threat.

Agree with your observation about the D, HARVARDDADGRAD. I’m more optimistic about the offense. We do have an inside threat (for about 25 minutes a game), Corey showing life and Towns/Aiken. Bassey fine as the 5th starter, especially with left corner 3s. That offense should be fine for Ivy play. Djuricic providing good minutes on both ends, but Baker is still lost on offense. Juzang, Haskett and Perez get 10 minutes or less depending on foul issues. If we put our best out there and give them playing time together, it’s reasonable to expect games to turn in our favor. Will obviously need improved play with 5 straight Ivy road games.

Need to defend the 3 against Dartmouth. Thought Towns fell asleep on a couple last night.

Heading up from NYC on Saturday into the COLD. Don’t want to leave the building and head outside with a L. Will have a chance to see the hockey team right after the Dartmouth game. Another team off to a slow start.



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3522

Reg: 02-04-06
01-03-18 07:22 PM - Post#241922    
    In response to 84grad

Lewis should come up big in Ivy play because nobody else has that kind of low-post offense and rim protection. Even Yale is weaker than usual in that department, although Penn's two-big lineup might cause some problems.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-04-18 12:17 PM - Post#241967    
    In response to SRP

Really hope Bryce is back. Nice to have Juzang emerging as a backup PG though. Reminding me of the Christian Webster, who became a big contributor as an upper classman. Rio will grow into the role better if not relied upon to do everything out of the gate.

I remain confused at Chris Egi's lack of playing time. Wondering if he's still injured. When Lewis is off the Court, the middle opens up. Egi could impact that. Against Vermont, the TV announcers repeatedly observed that Vermont could not post or drive with Lewis in the game but were able to do so freely when he was not.

Against BU - a squad ranked similarly to a bunch of Ivy squads - I thought Egi was quite efficient with 8 points on 4-5 shooting, 4 rebounds, 3 steals and a blocked shot in 17 minutes.

Maybe Tommy showed his rotation against Vermont (+Bryce?), but I'd be very interested to see how Egi fares if given a shot against Wofford.



 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 792

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-04-18 01:31 PM - Post#241998    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Amaker must have something up his sleeve for league play -- 4 out of the last 5 games under 56 points?? Predictable offense yielding consistently poor results. Fortunately, the Crimson start off against Dartmouth which may well help the cause to get on track.

He is too good of a coach not to figure it out with the talent level.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-04-18 02:29 PM - Post#242006    
    In response to bradley

In games where Bryce has played, the team is 97 ORAT (101 Adj), 98 DRAT with him on the floor and 78 ORAT (82 Adj), 96 DRAT with him off of it.

That Harvard has had a 91.5 Adj ORAT (and a similar Raw ORAT) in these four games without him has been a miracle. While I don't know that Bryce is worth 0.2ppp over his replacements in the long run, it's reasonable to think that 0.1ppp is possible. He's on the floor roughly 55-60 possessions a game, so that'd be about 5.5-6pts that he's worth over the course of a game or 8-8.5 pts per 100 team possessions.

I don't know that the offense will become a strength for Harvard this year, but the Crimson has posted a Top 6 defensive efficiency performance against 8 of the last 10 teams it's played. And it's doing all of it with average luck on opponent shots. If Harvard gets to a national average offense (very achievable with Bryce and average luck) and holds at a 97-98ish defense, playing like a +6 eff margin team (just inside Top 100 caliber) the rest of the way would leave this team right where it wants to be.

This year's team has had to deal with a shocking amount of injury/illness adversity, which means you have to dig a bit to parse out what can be expected at full strength. Now, it'd be entirely fair to say: I don't think Harvard's going to get to full strength, so I'm judging it as it is. That's a totally fair assumption to make.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-04-18 03:27 PM - Post#242020    
    In response to mrjames

What is full strength?

Is it Bryce, Baker and Seth? If so, we're almost there.

The others missing are McCarthy and Egi, who really haven't been available at all (McCarthy) or much (Egi) at all in OOC.




 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-04-18 07:10 PM - Post#242037    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

HA - injuries is a piece of it. Not wasting possessions on non-rotation players would be the other... And you’re right, Harvard’s getting pretty close on both...

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-05-18 11:05 AM - Post#242100    
    In response to mrjames

Imagine if Dartmouth had Boudreaux. We'd be very concerned about Bryce's availability right now.

Hopefully, a diminished Dartmouth squad turns out to be fortunate January scheduling, although some Harvard recent teams with lofty expectations (2014-15, 2015-16) split in January with the Big Green.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-06-18 10:59 AM - Post#242252    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Key for Harvard is to limit unforced turnovers. The Big Green offense isn't horrible (and can really shoot it), but that defense is really bad. I wouldn't expect to beat the Big Green 65-55 on 65 possessions. Dartmouth has already put up a 98 ORAT at Canisius and a 112 (!!!) at Notre Dame.

I'd expect about a point per possession from Dartmouth, so to win comfortably, Harvard is going to need its best offensive performance of the year (granted against the worst defense it's seen). I'd be very concerned if Bryce weren't available, even without Boudreaux.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 11:15 AM - Post#242254    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I see the line dropped from 11 to 10 in the last hour.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 12:30 PM - Post#242261    
    In response to 84grad

Bryce is worth more than a point. Hope he’s healthy

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:16 PM - Post#242274    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

No Aiken? Did the announcers explain or update?

Anyway, refs calling things very tight. Ridiculously tight

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:18 PM - Post#242275    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Aiken in the game!

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-06-18 03:49 PM - Post#242280    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Aiken looks like he’s still unsure what he can do out there...

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 03:52 PM - Post#242281    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Agree completely on the absurd refereeing. A factor in the embarrassing turnover battle which we lead 15-14.

Lots of rust for Aiken. Playing off the ball won’t work with Juzang’s turnover rate.

Poor execution on a number of breakout opportunities. This team needs some transition baskets.

Another half without FTs. That’s a problem.
.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:55 PM - Post#242282    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Bryce definitely not himself. Very cautious.

Harvard winning with defense. Up 10 at half. Taking away Dartmouth's 3's.

Alert to other team: Ref's calling things very tight, especially traveling play away from the hoop. 13 fouls, only 4 foul shots - all for Dartmouth. I'd like to see Harvard's bigger players take it to the hoop more often. Dartmouth does not appear to have the interior defense to defend that. Dartmouth's best chance is if Harvard relies on 3's in second half and goes cold (see, e.g., games vs Vermont).

Welsh got minutes instead of Egi. What's up?!?! Perez and Baker played, but didn't do much either.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 04:00 PM - Post#242283    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Oh yeah, ugly game - 29 TO's in first half (D - 14; H - 15).

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 04:17 PM - Post#242287    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Didn’t think I could be more depressed than I was after the Northeastern game. Really, a 15-0 Dartmouth run?

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 04:23 PM - Post#242290    
    In response to 84grad

How predictable - Harvard missing 3's in second half and we have a game.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 04:36 PM - Post#242292    
    In response to 84grad

I own race horses. We say: “No hoof, no horse”. No PG, no team. 9 point lead, but a really poor effort.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 04:38 PM - Post#242294    
    In response to 84grad

First free throw with one minute to go is pathetic. Really bad sign for this team.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 04:42 PM - Post#242296    
    In response to 84grad

By the way, feels like the announcers had as bad a game as the teams and referees. I know that’s harsh, but they may have had the most turnovers on the day.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-06-18 04:55 PM - Post#242302    
    In response to 84grad

Would have rather seen no Aiken, than now know how far he is from feeling 100% confident in that knee. Very concerning.

On the other hand, maybe Harvard’s defense is legit. I get 51 points on 64 possessions, which would be ~80 DRAT.

Team sorta feels like the Jacksonville Jaguars. Elite D. No quarterback. Shrug.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 67

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 06:22 PM - Post#242388    
    In response to mrjames

Is Tom Coughlin available?

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1803

Reg: 02-15-15
01-06-18 06:25 PM - Post#242393    
    In response to 84grad

I have been very impressed with Harvard's defense the last 4-5 games I have watched. Lewis, Towns, and Johnson are very active.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 07:31 PM - Post#242483    
    In response to PennFan10

Harvard's D is the constant. Offense varies from game to game along with 3 point shooting. Seems to me that if you recruit thoroughbreds you don't enter them in a muddy chariot race.

Anyway, Lewis allowed Harvard to run Dartmouth off the 3 point line. That's why Juzang and Bassey each had 4 fouls - mostly on the perimeter. Need more than just Lewis to sustain that for 40 minutes though.

Congrats to Penn. It's a wide open year - unless Mason returns to form quickly - but not for Harvard is Aiken doesn't recover. He is not ready. Shouldn't have played.

 
Go Green 
Masters Student
Posts: 429

Age: 47
Reg: 04-22-10
01-06-18 10:07 PM - Post#242506    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD


Our women beat you.



 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 11:17 PM - Post#242516    
    In response to Go Green

Yes, and had Dartmouth's 2017-18 mens squad been intact, it might have won as well. The rematch up in Hanover could be interesting.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-07-18 02:31 PM - Post#242597    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Live ball TOs on 15% of possessions is a... wow.

Noah has technically already graduated HS, let’s get him cleared and on the court!!!

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Dartmouth
01-08-18 12:12 PM - Post#242687    
    In response to mrjames

3Pt Shooting observation (w/o MIT)

4 home games: 35-85 = 41.2%

10 non-home games: 66-247 =26.7%

SOS isn't the difference as Harvard played Vermont and UMass at home, and possibly their best road shooting game was at Kentucky (12-28 = 42.9%)

To dig deeper, in Harvard's last 3 home games (no UMASS - seasoning opening weekend), they've shot 18-33 in the first halves - 54.5%!

Observations:
1. Home rims;
2. Upward trend;
3. Bryce missed last 3 home games (he's shooting 24.6%); and/or
4. Players shoot 3's better when not tired

Conclusions:
- Coach Amaker knew he had decent shooters entering the season based on last year's stats and scouting of freshmen (Djuricic, Farley and maybe Haskett);
- Without true PG and limited interior scoring threats other than Lewis and Towns, this team is coached to play defense, run clock, and employ an inside-out offense leading to 3's;
- Vulnerable to unfamiliar rims on road; and
- 3pt shooting % goes down with fatigue.

Bryce is a victim of the lack of another PG. He was averaging 34 minutes, handling the ball, driving, chasing the opponent's PG and taking the leftover 3's when the shot clock runs out. He's actually a very strong shooter - evidenced by last season (34.9% (2016-17) vs 24.6% (2017-18)).

I think this is why Harvard needs not only Aiken, but also McCarthy to be healthy. Both are not only good shooters, but they'll help boost the performance of the designated 3 point shooters (Johnson, Towns, Bassey and hopefully Djuricic/Farley). Juzang has been a pleasant surprise, but as a misplaced SG who played 35 minutes against Dartmouth, I expect his shooting to drop off, particularly in Saturday games.

To underscore the importance of 3pt shooting to the current Harvard team, Harvard was leading Vermont until it shot 1-9 on 3's in the second half, and Harvard was up 37-23 on Dartmouth before hitting a cold stretch, shooting 1-9 on 3's. Harvard then made its last 4 3's of the game in the final 6 minutes to win by 10.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-08-18 12:20 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-09-18 11:00 AM - Post#242798    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Harvard only 1 fast break basket against Dartmouth. That's 4 points in transition in last three games.

Anyone know if Mason is practicing for Yale yet? Thinking about Crimson visit on Jan 26th to New Haven.





 
Stuart Suss 
Masters Student
Posts: 954

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
01-09-18 02:20 PM - Post#242812    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Dad/Grad

Please do not rely on box score numbers for fast break points. The numbers in the box scores regularly understate the number of "fast break" points.

You can look at the play by play of the game and count how many points developed from possessions that took 10 seconds or less to complete. That is an imperfect measurement of fast break points, but it will be more accurate than a box score total which only counts those possessions during which the official scorer manually added the designation "FB" after the completion of the possession.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-09-18 05:13 PM - Post#242820    
    In response to Stuart Suss

Thanks Stuart. I've similarly noticed that blocked shots is a very subjective and imprecise metric.

Suffice it to say - even to my eye - without Bryce the Crimson don't seem to be in much of a hurry, or - if they are - they're not getting anywhere quickly.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Dartmouth
01-10-18 08:47 PM - Post#242924    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Nice game going on at Wofford (10-5, including victory over UNC). Tied at the half.

No Bryce (of course). Seth Towns playing possibly his best half of the year: 16pts on some pretty moves. Chris Lewis again a beast on defense, 2 blocks and holding Wofford's bigs to a total of 2 points. Bassey heavily in the mix for first 10 minutes.

Oh - in unfortunate support of my 3pt theorum, Crimson are 2-14 on three's in this road game. Wofford is 7-12.

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-10-18 08:48 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1128

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-20-18 10:30 PM - Post#244273    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Deja Vu. Harvard goes up by 14 or so 15 minutes in then Dartmouth goes on 16-3 run. This time, Crimson stopped shooting 3's, but still couldn't score or get to the line. Back to the drawing board.

By way, thanks Seth.

No Bryce again.

 
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