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Username Post: Dartmouth        (Topic#20910)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-03-18 02:19 PM - Post#241880    

First, Vermont. No Bryce, but Vermont was missing Lamb (leading scorer).

Same story. Impressive defense by Harvard, holding Vermont to its lowest scoring game of the season after doing the same to Minnesota . Announcers marvelled at how Lewis shut down penetration (4+ blocks), but Vermont hit 10-18 three's and held on for a 6 point win. Corey Johnson, Bassey, Juzang, Djurucic and Towns all hit three's in the first half, but squad went 1-9 in second half. Chris Lewis was dominant in the paint on offense, hitting 6 of 8 shots.

Juzang improving as a point guard in the absence of Bryce and Tommy McCarthy. Haskett only played 3 minutes. Game turned when Harvard tuned the ball over on 4 of 5 consecutive possessions early in second half. Harvard did not score for first 6.5 minutes of that half.

Even with Bryce, Harvard's offense is limited. Without him, it's a big problem. Without Bryce, only one fast break basket vs Vermont (none vs GW).

Dartmouth on Saturday. Anyone know how Bryce's recovery is going?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-03-18 02:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 68

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
Re: Dartmouth
01-03-18 05:21 PM - Post#241906    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Sure sounds like Aiken is probable for Saturday. Will have some rust and will likely play less minutes, but his return should produce immediate dividends by opening things up for others. Key will be to keep Towns involved. He should be able to find more space with Aiken on the court as a threat.

Agree with your observation about the D, HARVARDDADGRAD. I’m more optimistic about the offense. We do have an inside threat (for about 25 minutes a game), Corey showing life and Towns/Aiken. Bassey fine as the 5th starter, especially with left corner 3s. That offense should be fine for Ivy play. Djuricic providing good minutes on both ends, but Baker is still lost on offense. Juzang, Haskett and Perez get 10 minutes or less depending on foul issues. If we put our best out there and give them playing time together, it’s reasonable to expect games to turn in our favor. Will obviously need improved play with 5 straight Ivy road games.

Need to defend the 3 against Dartmouth. Thought Towns fell asleep on a couple last night.

Heading up from NYC on Saturday into the COLD. Don’t want to leave the building and head outside with a L. Will have a chance to see the hockey team right after the Dartmouth game. Another team off to a slow start.



 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3531

Reg: 02-04-06
01-03-18 07:22 PM - Post#241922    
    In response to 84grad

Lewis should come up big in Ivy play because nobody else has that kind of low-post offense and rim protection. Even Yale is weaker than usual in that department, although Penn's two-big lineup might cause some problems.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-04-18 12:17 PM - Post#241967    
    In response to SRP

Really hope Bryce is back. Nice to have Juzang emerging as a backup PG though. Reminding me of the Christian Webster, who became a big contributor as an upper classman. Rio will grow into the role better if not relied upon to do everything out of the gate.

I remain confused at Chris Egi's lack of playing time. Wondering if he's still injured. When Lewis is off the Court, the middle opens up. Egi could impact that. Against Vermont, the TV announcers repeatedly observed that Vermont could not post or drive with Lewis in the game but were able to do so freely when he was not.

Against BU - a squad ranked similarly to a bunch of Ivy squads - I thought Egi was quite efficient with 8 points on 4-5 shooting, 4 rebounds, 3 steals and a blocked shot in 17 minutes.

Maybe Tommy showed his rotation against Vermont (+Bryce?), but I'd be very interested to see how Egi fares if given a shot against Wofford.



 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 794

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-04-18 01:31 PM - Post#241998    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Amaker must have something up his sleeve for league play -- 4 out of the last 5 games under 56 points?? Predictable offense yielding consistently poor results. Fortunately, the Crimson start off against Dartmouth which may well help the cause to get on track.

He is too good of a coach not to figure it out with the talent level.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-04-18 02:29 PM - Post#242006    
    In response to bradley

In games where Bryce has played, the team is 97 ORAT (101 Adj), 98 DRAT with him on the floor and 78 ORAT (82 Adj), 96 DRAT with him off of it.

That Harvard has had a 91.5 Adj ORAT (and a similar Raw ORAT) in these four games without him has been a miracle. While I don't know that Bryce is worth 0.2ppp over his replacements in the long run, it's reasonable to think that 0.1ppp is possible. He's on the floor roughly 55-60 possessions a game, so that'd be about 5.5-6pts that he's worth over the course of a game or 8-8.5 pts per 100 team possessions.

I don't know that the offense will become a strength for Harvard this year, but the Crimson has posted a Top 6 defensive efficiency performance against 8 of the last 10 teams it's played. And it's doing all of it with average luck on opponent shots. If Harvard gets to a national average offense (very achievable with Bryce and average luck) and holds at a 97-98ish defense, playing like a +6 eff margin team (just inside Top 100 caliber) the rest of the way would leave this team right where it wants to be.

This year's team has had to deal with a shocking amount of injury/illness adversity, which means you have to dig a bit to parse out what can be expected at full strength. Now, it'd be entirely fair to say: I don't think Harvard's going to get to full strength, so I'm judging it as it is. That's a totally fair assumption to make.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-04-18 03:27 PM - Post#242020    
    In response to mrjames

What is full strength?

Is it Bryce, Baker and Seth? If so, we're almost there.

The others missing are McCarthy and Egi, who really haven't been available at all (McCarthy) or much (Egi) at all in OOC.




 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-04-18 07:10 PM - Post#242037    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

HA - injuries is a piece of it. Not wasting possessions on non-rotation players would be the other... And you’re right, Harvard’s getting pretty close on both...

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-05-18 11:05 AM - Post#242100    
    In response to mrjames

Imagine if Dartmouth had Boudreaux. We'd be very concerned about Bryce's availability right now.

Hopefully, a diminished Dartmouth squad turns out to be fortunate January scheduling, although some Harvard recent teams with lofty expectations (2014-15, 2015-16) split in January with the Big Green.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-06-18 10:59 AM - Post#242252    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Key for Harvard is to limit unforced turnovers. The Big Green offense isn't horrible (and can really shoot it), but that defense is really bad. I wouldn't expect to beat the Big Green 65-55 on 65 possessions. Dartmouth has already put up a 98 ORAT at Canisius and a 112 (!!!) at Notre Dame.

I'd expect about a point per possession from Dartmouth, so to win comfortably, Harvard is going to need its best offensive performance of the year (granted against the worst defense it's seen). I'd be very concerned if Bryce weren't available, even without Boudreaux.

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 68

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 11:15 AM - Post#242254    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

I see the line dropped from 11 to 10 in the last hour.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 12:30 PM - Post#242261    
    In response to 84grad

Bryce is worth more than a point. Hope he’s healthy

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:16 PM - Post#242274    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

No Aiken? Did the announcers explain or update?

Anyway, refs calling things very tight. Ridiculously tight

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:18 PM - Post#242275    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Aiken in the game!

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5242

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-06-18 03:49 PM - Post#242280    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Aiken looks like he’s still unsure what he can do out there...

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 68

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 03:52 PM - Post#242281    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Agree completely on the absurd refereeing. A factor in the embarrassing turnover battle which we lead 15-14.

Lots of rust for Aiken. Playing off the ball won’t work with Juzang’s turnover rate.

Poor execution on a number of breakout opportunities. This team needs some transition baskets.

Another half without FTs. That’s a problem.
.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 03:55 PM - Post#242282    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Bryce definitely not himself. Very cautious.

Harvard winning with defense. Up 10 at half. Taking away Dartmouth's 3's.

Alert to other team: Ref's calling things very tight, especially traveling play away from the hoop. 13 fouls, only 4 foul shots - all for Dartmouth. I'd like to see Harvard's bigger players take it to the hoop more often. Dartmouth does not appear to have the interior defense to defend that. Dartmouth's best chance is if Harvard relies on 3's in second half and goes cold (see, e.g., games vs Vermont).

Welsh got minutes instead of Egi. What's up?!?! Perez and Baker played, but didn't do much either.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 04:00 PM - Post#242283    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Oh yeah, ugly game - 29 TO's in first half (D - 14; H - 15).

 
84grad 
Freshman
Posts: 68

Age: 59
Reg: 11-09-17
01-06-18 04:17 PM - Post#242287    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Didn’t think I could be more depressed than I was after the Northeastern game. Really, a 15-0 Dartmouth run?

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1149

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-06-18 04:23 PM - Post#242290    
    In response to 84grad

How predictable - Harvard missing 3's in second half and we have a game.

 
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