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Username Post: all that happened        (Topic#20939)
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 10:14 AM - Post#242655    

is we beat the number 130 team... at home... by a few points. KenPom moved us up, what, three spots?

All this stuff about "the difference between this year and last year". It's enough already.

The difference between this year and last year is that Princeton is a demonstrably worse team.

Let's keep at it, see where we are the rest of the year. But right now Penn is actually performing worse than I predicted (120-130) by pomeroy.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-08-18 10:23 AM - Post#242656    
    In response to Jeff2sf

So we're no better but Princeton sucks?

Interesting take.

Cue board meltdown in 5...4...3...2...1...


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: all that happened
01-08-18 10:26 AM - Post#242657    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Yeah, who cares about the record --after 15 last year, we were 6-9 and 0-3 in the Ivies. As long as KenPom says we are 148 and Princeton is 129, they are better than we are and we suck.

But a totally predictable post.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 13784

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 10:27 AM - Post#242659    
    In response to palestra38

Ah, the nattering nabob of negativism. Thanks Jeff for keeping us from getting too carried away. MUST REMAIN DEPRESSED.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 10:34 AM - Post#242661    
    In response to 10Q

I'll give him credit--he is consistent. He said this pre-season:

" I will say this, what's more important, as is ultimately where you think they finish in Pomeroy or some other staty-typed model. Records can vary, but Pom is where it's at. So I'll say somewhere between 120-130."

Of course, most of us disagreed with his view, but it is his opinion. And in his opinion, underperforming in KenPom is more important than having a much better record and playing much better as a team on both ends. Of course, in his prior statement, he acknowledged not knowing or caring much about Penn's non-Big 5 opponents, which are the reason for its KenPom standing. Hard to say you don't care about the teams they are playing but do care about the ranking.

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
Masters Student
Posts: 808

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
Re: all that happened
01-08-18 10:35 AM - Post#242662    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
is we beat the number 130 team... at home... by a few points. KenPom moved us up, what, three spots?

All this stuff about "the difference between this year and last year". It's enough already.

The difference between this year and last year is that Princeton is a demonstrably worse team.

Let's keep at it, see where we are the rest of the year. But right now Penn is actually performing worse than I predicted (120-130) by pomeroy.



Lighten up, Francis. We just beat Princeton.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 13784

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 10:40 AM - Post#242665    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

Happiness is overrated.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11106

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: all that happened
01-08-18 11:13 AM - Post#242666    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

  • T.P.F.K.A.D.W. Said:

Lighten up, Francis. We just beat Princeton.



Any of you guys call me Francis....and I'll kill you.

Psycho


Edited by penn nation on 01-08-18 11:15 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 11:27 AM - Post#242669    
    In response to 10Q

the funny thing is i had the Francis quote going through my head about you all.

The non conference record is B E Y O N D meaningless. What a stupid, luddite take. Look who we played!

Fairfield - 212 KenPom. On the road. Not exactly a good loss and I'm sure I didn't predict we'd lose that one.
LaSalle, 134. at home. Not a great loss, but essentially Princeton. You win some, you lose some.
Navy at home. KenPom 215 21 point win. Good-ish but easily expected win.
Penn St Brandywine. Come the f on.
Northern Illinois. 238. Neutral court. We won. V Predictable.
Towson. 110. Neutral court. We lost. Kind of a win some, lose some sort of game.
UMKC - 278. Neutral court eke out a 3 point win. Terrible. Predictable win
Friggin Monmouth - 163. Away. 5 point win that took years off my life. That said, in the win some lose some category.
Villanova - 1. Loss. Totally fine to get drilled by 28 points to them. they're great. predictable loss
Howard - 336 on the road. We won. of course predictable.
Lafayette - 272 on the road. we won, of course predictable
Dayton - 141 on the road. We won. I'd call that a toss up game and nice win.
Del St. 3 5 0. Second to last. At home. Of course we were going to win that. A pox on all of our houses.
Toledo - 156 at home. Toss up game. If Dayton's a good win, feel this is a bad loss. But again, win some, lose some.
Princeton - 130 at home. Toss up game, we won, cool!

So going into the season, we had 5 certain victories in Del State, Penn Brandywine, UKMC (well we didn't know we'd get to play them till we lost to Towson) Lafayette, and Howard. I'm sure only an genius would disagree with that.

We had one guaranteed loss in Villanova. So 5-1 with a baby being able to predict that.

Then we have three victories that should have occurred with sub 200 teams in Fairfield, Navy and Northern Illinois... only we actually dropped one game. So we should be 8-1 and we're 7-2.

So what's left
LaSalle Towson Toledo (losses)
Dayton, Princeton, Monmouth (wins)

My thought going in was to predict wins for Monmouth, Toledo. Losses for Dayton and Towson, and then we'd split Princeton, LaSalle.

I mean there's really no way to conclude we wouldn't be 10-5 if we're thinking we're at least KenPom 150. For those of you who think we're actually better than that, you'd probably get us to 11-4.

This schedule is so. fricking. easy.

Ok fine, I'll look at last year's schedule.

Robert Morris - 266. We win, predictable.
Miami - 42 and away, we lose, predictable.
Central Conn - 341. We win. predictable
Navy - 206. Away. We lose. Kind of like Fairfield game.
Nova - 2. We lose, guaranteed.
Temple - 118. we lose. toss up game.
Lafayette 330. We win. duh
George Mason 123. We lost. toss up game.
UCF - 68. Road. We win. Best win of either year so far.
Drexel - 250. We win. Pretty much a def win.
Fairfield 204 - We win. probably should, especially at home
At Princeton - 58. We lose. to be expected.

So looking at that schedule, we had 4 definite wins instead of 5 this year. we had 4 expected losses in UCF, Miami, Princeton (all on road) and Villanova but we actually won one of them. We went 1-1 in our 200-249 games. And we had two toss up games which we lost both.
You'd have predicted the same record as what they got except you'd have expected to win a toss up (maybe) and lost the UCF game.

I mean jeez louise. there's no here here.


 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-08-18 11:32 AM - Post#242670    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Post-game Jeff commentary = During game Chip commentary.

Discuss.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 11:37 AM - Post#242672    
    In response to TheLine

stop, dude. you're better than this. I was genuinely happy with the win and will not be insulted to say I'm rooting against or anything like that. If you can't argue facts, then just stay away from this one.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 11:44 AM - Post#242674    
    In response to Jeff2sf

You are strategically leaving out the Yale/Brown home losses. Sure, we could have won or lost a bunch of those games last year, but we lost 9 of them. And the one "big" one we won--UCF--had them without their best player.

All you have to do is see the ball movement on this team and the improved assist-turnover ratio as well as the improved defense to know that this is a continuation of the improvement we saw from the middle of last season.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
all that happened
01-08-18 11:45 AM - Post#242675    
    In response to Jeff2sf

You've neglected a bunch of stuff. Like's Penn's KP improvement from last year isn't exactly insignificant and Princeton doesn't exactly suck (their KP ranking is depressed due to a poor start, otherwise they are performing well, have the likely favorite for POY, and favorite for ROY). Oh, and we last beat Princeton 4 years ago.

Nevertheless, response to the win has been muted and not over the top. There's more work to do for sure.

Yet you decide to poop on it anyway.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 11:57 AM - Post#242678    
    In response to TheLine

TheLine, sorry if that wasn't clear, yes, moving from 171 to 148 is an improvement. Not as much as I expected but clearly an improvement. But to just say "we're 9-6 vs. 6-9" removing all context to the actual schedule is dumb. But I've come to expect that from the "I watch the games" crowd.

Treating Princeton's quality as a constant is what I'm railing against. There are too many "the difference from last year" things. And to ignore their fall from 58 to 130 seems like you're ignoring the emperor had no clothes.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-08-18 11:59 AM - Post#242679    
    In response to TheLine

You want numbers I think are significant?

This year Penn is ranked 156th in rebounding. Last year Penn was 334th.

3FG%? 147th v. 232nd.

Assists? 100th v. 246th.

Defensive 3FG%? 43rd v. 240th. You say that doesn't matter because the D can only control attempts? Penn is 42nd at denying attempts.

It's hard to argue that improvements over last year are insignificant.

No one's arguing the work is over.


 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3186

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
01-08-18 12:01 PM - Post#242680    
    In response to TheLine

The question being debated here is this: are you what your record says you are (thank you Mr. Parcells) or are you what advanced statistical analysis says you are?

Penn's record has it tops in the league right now, and you can't say that's meaningless. When Donahue's boys lace up their sneakers, they're intention is not to get their KenPom rating up, it's to win the game. When we, as fans, watch the game, we have the same goal-- to win. I doubt many of us felt good about our KenPom ranking improving after losing to Lasalle (it did, right?). At the end of the season, the Ivy title and NCAA bid will go to the team(s) that had the best 14-game record and won the tournament respectively, not the ones with the highest KP rating.

OTOH, we also do place high importance on statistical analysis. So what's the purpose of that analysis? Not to tell you what happened, but to give some insight into why things seem to be happening the way they are, and to suggest what the future might look like.

This is a long-winded way of saying that, if your burger tastes great, then it IS great, at least for now. Tomorrow we might be eating scrapple.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 12:01 PM - Post#242681    
    In response to Jeff2sf

10-5.

And yes, you do have to watch the games to understand what is going on. And yes, Princeton is worse (not everyone expected that, but they lost 2 really good players in Weisz and Cook).

I give you credit for being consistent though. No, the games themselves don't matter.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 12:02 PM - Post#242682    
    In response to TheLine

Glad to see you jumping in to all of Stu's posts where he's breaking down the numbers.

Why are we only 149th then? If everything's improving 100+ spots, maybe not all of that matters. We improved 20 spots bud, that's all.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 12:04 PM - Post#242683    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Were we 170 or so at this time last year? Don't think so.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3186

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
01-08-18 12:09 PM - Post#242684    
    In response to palestra38

Remember-- all these ranking numbers are the product of modeling. Anybody remember what George Box said about models? Or Howard Skipper?

 
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