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Username Post: all that happened        (Topic#20939)
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 209

Reg: 03-25-09
01-08-18 12:14 PM - Post#242688    
    In response to palestra38

I don't think jeff goes to the games.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11542

Reg: 12-02-04
01-08-18 12:17 PM - Post#242689    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Jeff, you're correct in that our OOC schedule has not been good and many of our wins have come against less than superb opponents.

We know this. And yet, we need to take stock and realize that, for far too long, we couldn't even win a decent share of these games.

Now we are winning many of them. And showing a lot of fight in the process.

Heck, even in the one blowout loss we had ('Nova) we really didn't look all that bad if you were watching the actual game. 'Nova is simply one of the best teams in the country.

We're not a great team by any stretch. But I doubt we get blown out too much this year, which has been de rigeur for the better part of the last decade.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3794

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 12:19 PM - Post#242690    
    In response to Silver Maple

according to mr. upia, Penn was 150 going into the Princeton game last year. Basically exactly where we are this year!

When we do not crap the bed against a terrible Cornell or Columbia team this year, I'll concede we're further ahead.

But, and this isn't meant to be argumentative, does anyone understand what the hell happened last year when we went 0-6 in ivies? We lost to Dartmouth and Brown coming off losses when we couldn't possibly have been looking past the games. It was like temporary insanity.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3794

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 12:20 PM - Post#242691    
    In response to Jeff2sf

sorry, link http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/1...

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3794

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 12:23 PM - Post#242692    
    In response to penn nation

but PN, what I'm saying is that essentially last year's non conf schedule performance was qualitatively the same as this year's we just played a worse schedule so it looked better this year. So all this "things are different this year" don't hold up to the NON CONFERENCE.

Of course we have a better non-conf record than last year. We're playing an easier schedule. I can't explain the Brown loss at home though or the Dartmouth game on the road. Assuming we don't throw up those games this year, we'll be better.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1847

Reg: 02-15-15
01-08-18 12:27 PM - Post#242693    
    In response to Jeff2sf

issues like 0-6 followed by 6-2 are complex and there are many variables. One thing I have noted, though can't statistically corroborate, is the rotations.

Last year during 0-6 we played muliple starting lineups and several players would play a lot followed by not at all. SD was toying with his lineup and the guys didn't seem comfortable in their roles.

This year (and in the last half of last year) he has had the same starting lineup and has used the same bench guys the same way with few exceptions (e.g. we had a Dev sighting on Saturday and a Silpe sighting vs Toledo). The consistency gives players a level of confidence in what to expect and how to perform. Jarrod knows he is going in and can be aggressive for the minutes he plays. Sam Jones knows he is supposed to catch and shoot. Even Darnell and Max know the coach trusts them and will have them in there at the end so they seem to play more freely.

Sometimes players get tight when they don't know what to expect. Its not explicitly quantifiable yet it seems to be a factor.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1847

Reg: 02-15-15
01-08-18 12:29 PM - Post#242694    
    In response to PennFan10

I also think if we don't win both games this weekend, which will be a significant challenge as we are a hot shooting opponent away from an L (see Toledo), then the Princeton win doesn't mean anything.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3794

Reg: 11-22-04
01-08-18 12:40 PM - Post#242695    
    In response to PennFan10

  • PennFan10 Said:
issues like 0-6 followed by 6-2 are complex and there are many variables. One thing I have noted, though can't statistically corroborate, is the rotations.

Last year during 0-6 we played muliple starting lineups and several players would play a lot followed by not at all. SD was toying with his lineup and the guys didn't seem comfortable in their roles.

This year (and in the last half of last year) he has had the same starting lineup and has used the same bench guys the same way with few exceptions (e.g. we had a Dev sighting on Saturday and a Silpe sighting vs Toledo). The consistency gives players a level of confidence in what to expect and how to perform. Jarrod knows he is going in and can be aggressive for the minutes he plays. Sam Jones knows he is supposed to catch and shoot. Even Darnell and Max know the coach trusts them and will have them in there at the end so they seem to play more freely.

Sometimes players get tight when they don't know what to expect. Its not explicitly quantifiable yet it seems to be a factor.



that could be it, sure. But he did that throughout the non conf last year too and we didn't play like the Little Sisters of the Poor.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3758

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
01-08-18 12:43 PM - Post#242696    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
Glad to see you jumping in to all of Stu's posts where he's breaking down the numbers.

Why are we only 149th then? If everything's improving 100+ spots, maybe not all of that matters. We improved 20 spots bud, that's all.


I read all of Stu's posts. They are informative. And it does make sense that rebounding has been a big factor in the team's improvement.

Last year's team was better at suppressing 2FGs. I haven't studied the mathhoops numbers enough to be able to draw strong conclusions why. My observational guess is that it's due to the change in the defensive schema and that it's a worthwhile tradeoff. FT% and blocks rates are also down this year.

Bottom line - Penn is shooting better from outside, defending the outside shot better, and rebounding better. And the team continues to have a low TO rate. All good trends.


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11542

Reg: 12-02-04
01-08-18 12:51 PM - Post#242698    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:

Bottom line - Penn is shooting better from outside, defending the outside shot better, and rebounding better. And the team continues to have a low TO rate. All good trends.




And passing much better as well.


 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 291

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-08-18 02:00 PM - Post#242701    
    In response to TheLine

We also generate fewer turnovers on defense and there are other countervailing trends that lead to the improvement being somewhat modest at 20-30 spots in statistical rankings. Our schedule is the largest reason for 10-5 vs. 6-9.

That said, the league did not perform well in the non-conference and lack of schedule strength could continue to be a big factor in our favor. We are currently forecast to be 20-10 (10-4) even with our only modest improvement in our statistical rankings. It is what it is unless one or more of the teams shows something they haven't yet.

If there was a year for a team outside the top 100 to win the tourney berth - this could be it. Particularly playing in home gym for Ivy Tourney. I think Jeff is largely right, but I am still happy for the win and excited by the opportunity to potentially win league which looked unlikely before season started.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19213

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 02:15 PM - Post#242703    
    In response to Okoro Dude

We still are winning games that we lost over the last 3 or 4 years. It was pretty apparent that Princeton would lose quite a bit this year (although many here still thought they were the team to beat), that Harvard was young and unproven and (by the time the season started) Yale had crushing injuries. So it was necessary to go off of last year's metrics to predict how this season was likely to go....especially since Penn was a team of 2 seasons last year and was likely to be more of the team of the second half than the first (unless you were of the opinion that substituting Woods for Howard would make us a much worse team, as a few did). I don't put much stock in comparing a Pom number from last year to this year as they reflect different teams and different matchups. The improvement in objective metrics is pretty apparent, as noted above. And the competition is down. So we did and do have a real chance to compete for a title this year.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3758

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
all that happened
01-08-18 02:24 PM - Post#242704    
    In response to palestra38

Our non-conference strength of schedule so far (there are still games against Temple and St Joe's) vs. last year.

Last year : +0.20
This year : - 2.67
Net difference : -2.87
Meaning our opponents this year are 2.87 points worse than last year.

I can't find - or don't have access to - what our performance was in non-conference games only. For the whole year :

Last year : -.20
This year : +2.40
Net difference : +2.60
Meaning Penn is performing 2.60 points better than last year. KP numbers are normalized to account for SOS so this is real improvement and not SOS tainted.

Meaning a little more than half of the "improvement" is due to a weaker schedule and the rest is from the team playing better. Unless I'm not understanding the numbers correctly.


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11542

Reg: 12-02-04
01-08-18 02:43 PM - Post#242705    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
We still are winning games that we lost over the last 3 or 4 years. It was pretty apparent that Princeton would lose quite a bit this year (although many here still thought they were the team to beat).



Still do. At least I do.


 
Okoro Dude 
Junior
Posts: 291

Loc: Glen Mills, PA
Reg: 11-24-04
01-08-18 02:47 PM - Post#242706    
    In response to palestra38

Anything looks good in the context of the last decade which is clearly the worst in the history of the program. Personally, I will be more excited when they are clearly a top 75 (or at least top 100) team again as they were in probably half of Dunphy's tenure as that is what will be required to consistently compete for the title in this league. That said, I have season tickets and go to almost every game as I have for 24 years now and I am happy to see the incremental improvement this year and hope that the trend continues.

This narrative of two seasons within one last year is a flat out fiction, however. They had one tremendous road weekend at Brown and Yale that was an outlier and the rest of the season was incredibly consistent with their season-long ranking with predictable highs and lows sprinkled throughout.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11542

Reg: 12-02-04
01-08-18 02:49 PM - Post#242707    
    In response to Okoro Dude

Hard to tell how this will pan out. While the league underperformed OOC, it seems to me that some IL teams chose to have challenging schedules.

I do not know how that compares to previous years, and clearly we don't know for sure until the end of all of the conference tourneys, but ultimately some IL team rankings could improve aside from winning conference games.

  • Okoro Dude Said:
We also generate fewer turnovers on defense and there are other countervailing trends that lead to the improvement being somewhat modest at 20-30 spots in statistical rankings. Our schedule is the largest reason for 10-5 vs. 6-9.

That said, the league did not perform well in the non-conference and lack of schedule strength could continue to be a big factor in our favor. We are currently forecast to be 20-10 (10-4) even with our only modest improvement in our statistical rankings. It is what it is unless one or more of the teams shows something they haven't yet.

If there was a year for a team outside the top 100 to win the tourney berth - this could be it. Particularly playing in home gym for Ivy Tourney. I think Jeff is largely right, but I am still happy for the win and excited by the opportunity to potentially win league which looked unlikely before season started.




 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 776

Reg: 11-29-04
all that happened
01-08-18 02:58 PM - Post#242709    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
Glad to see you jumping in to all of Stu's posts where he's breaking down the numbers.

Why are we only 149th then? If everything's improving 100+ spots, maybe not all of that matters. We improved 20 spots bud, that's all.



Also missing the fact that the 20 spots isn't from an influx of new talent. It is organic improvement. Antonio Woods is the main new contributor vs. the loss of Howard. It's hard to argue that is a talent upgrade. Woods has played well enough, despite your arguments that he had little hope. Our Freshman have been decent, but can hardly be given credit for the jump as their PT has been limited.

These types of seasons are the ones that rebuild programs. Unlike the pros where bad seasons mean worse draft picks, winning seasons in college help programs to recruit better players. The gushing isn't really about how awesome our team has become. It says more about our optimism that this is a turning point for the program.

Edited by Penndemonium on 01-08-18 03:00 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3758

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
all that happened
01-08-18 02:58 PM - Post#242710    
    In response to penn nation

I absolutely am with you that the goal is to be Top 75 and with regular dance invites.

It's also possible to view this year as being a good step in the right direction so far - continued improved play, better defensive scheme because we have players good enough to play it, seamless integration of Antonio and Max into the starting lineup, promising performances by Simmons and Scott (before injury).

While lots more has to happen before we can feel satisfied that the job is done, can it also be OK to feel good about the Princeton victory and have to not go into negative nelly mode? It's not like the team lucked into a victory and I doubt Princeton is going to fade in league play.


Edited by TheLine on 01-08-18 03:00 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19213

Reg: 11-21-04
all that happened
01-08-18 03:05 PM - Post#242711    
    In response to Okoro Dude

You're basing that opinion on the skewed results of the non-conference schedule. We stunk---and we beat UCF in an outlier game without their best player. Second half we settled into a regular rotation, and not only beat Brown and Yale on the road, but beat Harvard, LaSalle on the road and went on a streak where after the Princeton home game, we won 6 of 8 and didn't lose another game by more than 3 or in OT. It was qualitatively better by a lot, as prior to that time, most of our losses were by a lot. You cannot look at things simply in black and white (were we favorites and did we win). We played much better the second half, and put a scare into a very very good Princeton team in the playoff. Given that our loss (Howard) enables us to play 2 bigs and 2 solid guards with Betley, we are both situationally and athletically better this year.

And unlike prior teams since Dunphy, this team is well coached and takes to the coaching.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3758

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
01-08-18 03:13 PM - Post#242713    
    In response to palestra38

The numbers say we're 2-3 points better. Which jibes with what I see.

I have a feeling that if this team wins the conference then some will point to Penn being back and some will point to this being a relatively down year for the league. Both are kind of right, though I think the latter would severely understate the accomplishment.


 
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