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Username Post: all that happened        (Topic#20939)
pennsive 
Sophomore
Posts: 116

Reg: 11-21-04
01-08-18 09:59 PM - Post#242770    
    In response to The Pine


I agree with you completely. Consider this: we switched uniforms with Princeton on Saturday. The play of our forwards who passed, shot, finished, and defended, and our overall offensive and defensive team strategy (i.e.coaching) looked like the Princeton teams that we have become used to seeing. In some ways, Princeton looked like the Penn teams of the past five years. I, for one, am very happy to trade places with them. Let's enjoy the victory and hope that it is a bridge to many, many more just like it. Giving the tiger a taste of its own medicine was good for the soul.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2390
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
01-10-18 04:16 PM - Post#242901    
    In response to pennsive

Jeff - I pay for Kenpom and track the advanced stats closely to the best of my ability (have enjoyed learning from stats folks that have shared their knowledge here), and I agree statistically overall we've only jumped 20-30 spots. I also agree overall the league is down in ratings (injuries being a big part) and that's why we are currently rated a higher in league than expected.

What I don't understand is why this post was necessary (and dude this is clearly a mistimed downer)?

Where are all the Penn fan posts saying we are now the best or overestimating our chances to win? Maybe one or two posts? I just don't see it. Seriously, I'd love to know what posts set you off to want to write this?

I see a lot of excited fans and more confident and hopeful than we've been in years. I mean, hell, we hadn't beaten Princeton in years... how #%$@ sad is that? Hell yes I was excited, but it was 1 game in 14 game season, and despite that Kenpom currently has us finishing with best Ivy regular season record, I frankly still think Princeton is the favorite so if anything I'm being even more conservative in my expectations than analytics would suggest. I've seen other Penn fans say the same about Princeton, so I just don't get why now?

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
all that happened
01-10-18 04:50 PM - Post#242909    
    In response to Mike Porter

It was basically this page http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/2...

Felt too over the top to me.

This page towards the bottom was also pretty nausea inducing.

http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/2...

When you're fundamentally the same team, there's no need to talk about buy in and wanting it more and intangibles and all that. It by implication seems to indict players from last year. There is no way that swapping Matt Howard for Max and Antonio is a net positive. He's much better than both of those players on offense and defense. But they're getting this credit not extended to him because we're 20 spots higher in KenPom?

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: all that happened
01-10-18 04:58 PM - Post#242910    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Antonio's numbers are significantly better than they were his first two years contrary to your prediction that that could not happen. Indeed, they are pretty similar to and promise a senior year very close to (gasp) Rob Belcore.

You simply don't understand court balance. No one is suggesting that either Max or Antonio are better players than Matt Howard. However, they fit the needs of this team better, since Betley is a much better scorer than Howard, Max plays better interior defense and is a bigger threat inside on offense than Howard and Antonio is a much better defensive player on the perimeter and a much better ballhandler than Howard. So while Howard overall was better, these guys make the team better. And you completely missed that in your preseason analysis and stubbornly persist in making that argument even when the true fans are feeling good about beating Princeton.

Your arrogant insistence on being recognized as a superior intellect far outweighs your status as a Quaker fan. On that, the satire got it just right. It was a bit unfair to suggest that that arrogance exceeds your love for your kids...but then again, it is satire.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
all that happened
01-10-18 05:07 PM - Post#242912    
    In response to palestra38

I just checked, I said that there was a greater than 10% chance he could put up a 105ish ORAT. Which is what he is currently at. Though interestingly on 16% usage meaning other people have to pick up his slack on the floor because he simply can't make his own plays.

http://boards.basketball-u.com/showtopic.php?tid/2...

I also had predicted a 101 ORAT. I'd say that's in the ballpark of 105. You didn't bother to predict one.

Again, if all of these awesome things happened, how come they're only 20 spots better in KenPom? It's at least half because they have played a very weak schedule. They're not materially better than they were last year at the time of nonconference and Princeton. Assuming they don't have the awful 6 game stint to open the Ivies, they will become better. That will be great.

I love Penn just as much as anyone on this board.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-10-18 06:00 PM - Post#242915    
    In response to Jeff2sf

You want to compare predictions so far Jeff? I predicted Penn for 3rd place ("19-11 over all, 9-5 Ivies, 3rd place") although I believe that was before Yale suffered its crippling injuries. You and I went at it head to head on that ridiculously long Red and Blue thread, where you said they would be worse this year with the loss of Howard and ridiculed the idea that Woods would improve. Here's what I said pre-season about Princeton:

"Mike, maybe you can explain this to me, but as I look at Princeton, I see a team that lost 4 seniors --all forwards (Cook, Weisz, Caruso and Miller) who played 90 minutes, scored 37 points, and 17.4 rebounds per game yet you seem to feel that this will not be missed because their returning players shoot 3s really well? Where are they going to get the play up front to replace them? All their returning stars are guards."

So far, I think that my predictions have been a step above yours. But there is a long way to go. What no one can understand is why you are crowing about Penn's improvement being unreal after a win against Princeton. That's when we question whether your intolerance about possible being wrong is stronger than your fandom.



 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-10-18 06:10 PM - Post#242916    
    In response to palestra38

I predicted 8-6 and 4th. One game different. I also predicted we'd be at a 130ish KenPom. I've been off so far.

But here's the thing that separates me and you. I have no problem being wrong. You, just two days ago, said something "Were we 170 or so at this time last year? Don't think so". Implying we'd be worse than 170... we were actually better than that. Did you make one acknowledgement of being wrong? No, I showed you that you were wrong and you Colin'ed it up. Tell me some times you've been wrong. Acknowledge it.

I have no problem walking back things.

 
Charlie Fog 
Masters Student
Posts: 422

Age: 49
Loc: Philly
Reg: 11-12-13
01-10-18 06:18 PM - Post#242917    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Go Quakers!

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18026

Reg: 11-21-04
01-10-18 06:19 PM - Post#242918    
    In response to Jeff2sf

I don't recall responding to that---I may have missed it. If I am wrong about a fact, of course I admit it. I'll look, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But what you just did is a classic deflection (speaking of Colin). Are you going to admit you were wrong about Antonio (and don't give me that a 10% chance on the ORAT is a correct prediction--in that case you can never be wrong....which is pretty much the way you look at things generally).

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-10-18 06:29 PM - Post#242919    
    In response to palestra38

If Antonio keeps up a 105 ORAT, he will be better than I thought he'd be. It would seem to me he'd be worse than you thought he'd be because you've talked about him as a special player. A 105 ORAT on 16% usage... i mean, I looked at the 5 players from each Ivy team that played the most minutes (so 8X5=40). He's 24th. That would be consistent with me calling him a "nice" player.

I don't hate Antonio, I just saw a guy who was far worse than you saw. You called him special and great. He's neither. I'm glad he's playing for us now.

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 704

Reg: 11-29-04
Re: all that happened
01-10-18 07:44 PM - Post#242921    
    In response to palestra38

P38, I would agree with your overall point about the team, but I'm not sure I'll agree that Woods just fits our team and system better than Howard. I wouldn't attribute the improvement of our team to either of them. It seems very plausible to me that our team would have taken an equal or better jump if Howard were here in Woods' place.

That's what makes the improvement of this year's team so great. I can't point to big changes in talent. It simply seems to be a group that plays bigger than the sum of their parts this year. I think that would have happened if Howard were here too. Their intangibles are way up, and a 20-30 spot jump in Kenpom from that alone is a huge one. It means our team has taken a leap to become watchable, fun, an worthy of our fandom.

Yes, Jeff2sf, the league is down and our team is not super-strong. Yes, we gushed about a win at Delaware State. We are having fun. We don't need you to knock sense into us. Most of us enjoy being positive (and sometimes misguidedly so) on this board more than being being drawn into petty side arguments. Leave us alone. Make your points without disparaging others' intellect. It's not that hard.

  • palestra38 Said:
Antonio's numbers are significantly better than they were his first two years contrary to your prediction that that could not happen. Indeed, they are pretty similar to and promise a senior year very close to (gasp) Rob Belcore.

You simply don't understand court balance. No one is suggesting that either Max or Antonio are better players than Matt Howard. However, they fit the needs of this team better, since Betley is a much better scorer than Howard, Max plays better interior defense and is a bigger threat inside on offense than Howard and Antonio is a much better defensive player on the perimeter and a much better ballhandler than Howard. So while Howard overall was better, these guys make the team better. And you completely missed that in your preseason analysis and stubbornly persist in making that argument even when the true fans are feeling good about beating Princeton.

Your arrogant insistence on being recognized as a superior intellect far outweighs your status as a Quaker fan. On that, the satire got it just right. It was a bit unfair to suggest that that arrogance exceeds your love for your kids...but then again, it is satire.



 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-10-18 09:30 PM - Post#242931    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
I predicted 8-6 and 4th. One game different. I also predicted we'd be at a 130ish KenPom. I've been off so far.


What led you to the conclusion that Penn would be 8-6, KP 130ish? Tell me there's some statistical basis and it wasn't something you pulled from a body orifice. Because if that's the case then you're saying the season is a disappointment because the team hasn't reached a KP number you made up.

You come off as unimpressed that Penn beat the odds-on favorite to win the league - the one team that has a better KP than Penn's. I truly don't get that.

And you know what? It's OK to acknowledge that there are some guys on this team who are overachieving and putting us in this situation. Looking at you, Antonio Woods and Max Rothschild. They aren't the stars of the team but they play hard and play smart every single game. Bravo.

As a "stats guy" if you want to point something out then is it OK to educate without the condescension? Maybe all the banter on the site isn't to your liking but we're still able to discuss advanced metrics. That's advancement.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-10-18 09:33 PM - Post#242932    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:
  • Jeff2sf Said:
I predicted 8-6 and 4th. One game different. I also predicted we'd be at a 130ish KenPom. I've been off so far.


What led you to the conclusion that Penn would be 8-6, KP 130ish? Tell me there's some statistical basis and it wasn't something you pulled from a body orifice. Because if that's the case then you're saying the season is a disappointment because the team hasn't reached a KP number you made up.

You come off as unimpressed that Penn beat the odds-on favorite to win the league - the one team that has a better KP than Penn's. I truly don't get that.

And you know what? It's OK to acknowledge that there are some guys on this team who are overachieving and putting us in this situation. Looking at you, Antonio Woods and Max Rothschild. They aren't the stars of the team but they play hard and play smart every single game. Bravo.

As a "stats guy" if you want to point something out then is it OK to educate without the condescension? Maybe all the banter on the site isn't to your liking but we're still able to discuss advanced metrics. That's advancement.





do you want to have a convo about this or do you want to be a jerk? cus while I do criticize (justly) P38, i've mostly left you alone and don't deserve the snark you're sending my way. So either lower the temperature or let's just not even do this.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3596

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-10-18 09:34 PM - Post#242933    
    In response to Jeff2sf

You've answered my question. No reason to discuss anything further.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-10-18 09:37 PM - Post#242934    
    In response to TheLine

cool, bro. You went snark. I did have some sincere answers and was about halfway through typing when i realized you were just being an butt about it. thanks for confirming.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3744

Reg: 11-22-04
01-10-18 09:41 PM - Post#242935    
    In response to Mike Porter

  • Mike Porter Said:
Jeff - I pay for Kenpom and track the advanced stats closely to the best of my ability (have enjoyed learning from stats folks that have shared their knowledge here), and I agree statistically overall we've only jumped 20-30 spots. I also agree overall the league is down in ratings (injuries being a big part) and that's why we are currently rated a higher in league than expected.

What I don't understand is why this post was necessary (and dude this is clearly a mistimed downer)?

Where are all the Penn fan posts saying we are now the best or overestimating our chances to win? Maybe one or two posts? I just don't see it. Seriously, I'd love to know what posts set you off to want to write this?

I see a lot of excited fans and more confident and hopeful than we've been in years. I mean, hell, we hadn't beaten Princeton in years... how #%$@ sad is that? Hell yes I was excited, but it was 1 game in 14 game season, and despite that Kenpom currently has us finishing with best Ivy regular season record, I frankly still think Princeton is the favorite so if anything I'm being even more conservative in my expectations than analytics would suggest. I've seen other Penn fans say the same about Princeton, so I just don't get why now?



Mike, I offered you my answer and I meant what I said but your post did cause me to reflect a bit. I can see how people thought it was poorly timed. I don't think it's necessarily good to criticize right after a loss and if you check this season, I generally haven't gotten down after any one loss. So I'm sorry if I rained on your parade.

 
Jake Wilson 
Freshman
Posts: 15

Loc: United States
Reg: 03-05-05
01-10-18 10:23 PM - Post#242942    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Were we 170 or so at this time last year? Don't think so.



Penn was ranked 145th at this point last season.

 
Penn7277 
PhD Student
Posts: 1194

Loc: Lancaster, PA
Reg: 11-21-04
01-10-18 10:28 PM - Post#242943    
    In response to Jake Wilson

I posted this some time ago and feel moved to post it again. Can't we all just get along?

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3185

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
01-10-18 10:45 PM - Post#242944    
    In response to Penn7277

Holy moly! Was that Jake Wilson we just heard from? On a related note, I think I just spotted a Yeti tromping through my back yard.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11104

Reg: 12-02-04
01-10-18 10:53 PM - Post#242946    
    In response to Silver Maple

He's just a freshman.

But hey, the Quad turns out to be your doppleganger! Who knew?

 
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