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Username Post: all that happened        (Topic#20939)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
01-10-18 10:24 PM - Post#242947    
    In response to Silver Maple

Jake's a sensitive guy. Lives in one of those touchy feely Boston area communities where everyone cares about each other. Hates to see people sniping.

Yo Jake. The real season starts Friday. I feel pretty optimistic--most of us do. Just boredom.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 12928

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 06:19 AM - Post#242958    
    In response to Silver Maple

Who’s next? BRF?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4304

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 09:17 AM - Post#242969    
    In response to palestra38

Seems to me that Jeff was actually closer on Woods. Maybe I misunderstood your preseason statements on Woods, but I thought you were saying he would be one of our top three players. Instead, we’ve gotten a lower usage, higher efficiency player. This is what I believe I said we needed from Woods in order for him to be a starter.

On the Ivy record, you predicted 9-5 and Jeff predicted 8-6. I’m excited about the win last weekend, and it makes 9-5 easier to reach, but i’m not ready to declare a winner after one game. A home win over Princeton is reasonable for either scenario.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 09:27 AM - Post#242970    
    In response to SomeGuy

LOL. I think you have to go back and look at his statements on Woods and team as a whole. But let's just move on. This was precipitated by his negative comments after the Princeton win. We need to have the proper atmosphere to "welcome" Cornell and Columbia.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 09:30 AM - Post#242971    
    In response to SomeGuy

YES! YESSSSS!

The following are two quotes from P38 "I agree with you that Woods is the wild card this year. Few here seem to remember the hype for him when he started and he played with a confidence well beyond a freshman, even if he indeed was pretty raw. If his court sense has come up to his talent, he is a pretty special Ivy guard. "

"Donahue considered Woods (not his recruit) a special player 2 years ago and still does. I put much more credence in what he says than what you say based on his numbers with a bad team. "

Woods is performing outside my expected performance, but not THAT far outside. I didn't anticipate the decreased usage play by him. Bravo to him.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3003

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
01-11-18 09:40 AM - Post#242972    
    In response to palestra38

I like what Woods is doing this year-- more than I thought I would. He's playing smart, unselfish, team-first basketball. He's focusing on doing the things he does well, and isn't trying to do the things he's not so good at. He's not forcing things and isn't making a lot of mistakes. (For instance, he takes very few shots that aren't high-percentage shots for him.) He also seems to have improved as the season has gone on. All of this adds up to leadership, and teams don't win without that.

That's why Antonio is starting, and why he's playing so many minutes, and why other players are getting so many opportunities to succeed. Is he 'better' than Matt Howard? Is he 'worse?' I have no idea. It doesn't matter. The only thing we can say for certain is that Antonio Woods isn't Matt Howard.

The point here is that Woods is playing a highly productive role for this team, is contributing significantly to team efficiency on both sides of the ball, and is part of the reason the team seems to have taken a step forward this season. All that said, the jury's still out. Let's see how all this looks in a month or so. I'm still twitching over last season's 0-6 Ivy start.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
all that happened
01-11-18 10:00 AM - Post#242975    
    In response to Jeff2sf

I'll leave it as SM describes it above. But let me say that it is impossible to have a debate with you when you consider that your "10% chance" that Woods will play as well as he has allows you to declare yourself correct.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 10:26 AM - Post#242985    
    In response to palestra38

You keep saying that. I'm not declaring myself correct. So far, I'm not right. I. DID. NOT. FORECAST. WOODS. CORRECTLY.

You can not make up a straw man that I'm trying to take credit for anything wit Woods. The above is the source of record. I was wrong, wrong, wrong.

Now, let's move on to you. You wrote the above that I quoted. Do you deny you wrote it? How does that square with his performance this year? Is this semantics? Because I and at least SomeGuy and perhaps some other guys, don't equate "special" with a 105 ORat on 16% usage. You could argue, as SomeGuy has, that a 101 ORat is closer to what he's doing than "special".

If you're saying special just means you're a below median starter in the Ivies, that's great. But let us know.

Also, the YESSSS I was going for was a Darnell Hayes vibe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7VaXlMvAvk

I'm not actually that excited.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 10:31 AM - Post#242988    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Yes, I think I was right--saying he is a special player was correct. And we have a special coach who is using him correctly. Tell me if Silpe, Donahue or Goodman could be doing what he is doing. And our biggest disagreement was whether Penn would be better or worse this year.

But I'm only excited at this point for the Cornell game.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
all that happened
01-11-18 10:36 AM - Post#242991    
    In response to palestra38

Ok, so special is like, every kid is special. Got it. Grade inflation. If you had actually said something like, I think Woods is capable of putting up a 105 or 106 ORAT with less than 20% usage, no one would have batted an eye. I would have slightly disagreed with you, but I wouldn't nearly have dedicated as many words to this.

I'm not looking to be right or wrong on this but you have to understand that the difference between a 101 ORAT and a 105 isn't that much. If you had said that's what you meant, I would have thought that maybe you had some slight Penn glasses on, but no more than I have with someone like Tyler Hamilton (may he rest in peace). I would have said we basically view Woods the same. I will take you on face value that you meant this and not that you meant that special = All Ivy. It's a shame you're so averse to numbers, you really wasted a lot of people's time.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: all that happened
01-11-18 11:15 AM - Post#242996    
    In response to Jeff2sf

As I said, I'll discuss the numbers with you when you discuss court balance. Until then, let's move on.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 11:20 AM - Post#242998    
    In response to palestra38

I have done nothing but meet you more than half way. You're not doing the same, Colin. So to be clear, you're saying that special means below average starter?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4304

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 11:27 AM - Post#243000    
    In response to palestra38

Jeff actually said we’d be better this year overall.

Yes, he thinks we’d be more better if we still had Matt Howard. That is a point we can debate and never prove, assuming no massive change in eligibility rules or Matt taking on a new identity.



 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1531

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
01-11-18 11:42 AM - Post#243003    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
I have done nothing but meet you more than half way. You're not doing the same, Colin. So to be clear, you're saying that special means below average starter?



Leave me out of this please...

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 12928

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 11:45 AM - Post#243006    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Ha Ha. I always mix Colin and Jon up.

 
mrjames 
Postdoc
Posts: 4950

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 01:58 PM - Post#243026    
    In response to 10Q

Didn't follow all of this, but probably worth reiterating that Penn is eerily dead even with where it was both at Bart Torvik's site and KenPom at the same point last year.

Also, on Woods, it's important to note that the difference between the two takes on him (at least based on offensive ratings) is quite simply the difference between his current 2PT J% of 54% and a more reasonable one of 30s-low 40s. I mean that more to say that I think we need more time to come to any conclusions than to take either side.

As for Penn, the defense has pretty much wrapped up its regression (been in the 102/103 range over the past month-plus as the 3PT% against has moderated). The question now is whether the national average offense, which is driven primarily by an insanely low TO rate (not to mention ancillary benefits to the D from the offense getting the ball stolen at an insanely low rate as well), will hold up over time.

Penn's generally in the zone where everyone expected, no? The surprise has been the massive injuries to Harvard and Yale and Princeton starting out so slowly.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 16913

Reg: 11-21-04
01-11-18 02:47 PM - Post#243032    
    In response to mrjames

Achem...."some" of us questioned your high evaluation of Princeton because they retained no quality big men. You are correct that no one anticipated Yale's injuries. Harvard is half and half.

But again, you guys continually back into non-predictions by looking at non-comparable statistics (such as KenPom--140 last year does not equal 140 this year) or saying that Woods had a 10% chance of performing at this level, so if he does, the prediction was correct. I don't expect acknowledgment on this but that's my view.

On the actual play, there is a reason why Penn's TO rate is so low--it plays 2 guys who are skilled ballhandlers over 30 minutes a game, and Betley and as it turns out, Max, both are very good passers. It's a really well coached team, and reminds me a bit of Donahue's great Cornell teams in that respect. We just don't have the shooters who can do the other things so we have to choose.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 02:54 PM - Post#243036    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
You keep saying that. I'm not declaring myself correct. So far, I'm not right. I. DID. NOT. FORECAST. WOODS. CORRECTLY.




  • PALESTRA LIED Said:
you guys continually back into non-predictions by looking at non-comparable statistics (such as KenPom--140 last year does not equal 140 this year) or saying that Woods had a 10% chance of performing at this level, so if he does, the prediction was correct. I don't expect acknowledgment on this but that's my view.




I mean expect people to acknowledge reality. I've definitely come with a good faith approach to this debate. Colin has not.


 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 6898

Reg: 12-07-04
01-11-18 03:17 PM - Post#243046    
    In response to Jake Wilson

  • Jake Wilson Said:
  • palestra38 Said:
Were we 170 or so at this time last year? Don't think so.



Penn was ranked 145th at this point last season.


Am I seeing things??

  • Jeff2sf Said:
I mean expect people to acknowledge reality. I've definitely come with a good faith approach to this debate. Colin has not.



Why continue to do this if not to cause problems? His name isn't Colin and it's played out at this point.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3612

Reg: 11-22-04
01-11-18 03:18 PM - Post#243047    
    In response to Quakers03

Q, you know I love you, but you don't see anything wrong with me stating I was wrong and Palestra38 claiming I haven't acknowledged this?

 
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