Untitled Document
Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



 Page 1 of 4 1234
Username Post: Max’s stats        (Topic#21002)
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
01-17-18 09:38 PM - Post#243867    

Article today in the DP

http://www.thedp.com/article/2018/01/penn- mens-bas...

And a bonus feature on Temple game

http://www.thedp.com/article/2018/01/penn- mens-bas...

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3749

Reg: 11-22-04
Max’s stats
01-17-18 10:14 PM - Post#243877    
    In response to PennFan10

"Rothschild is playing the best basketball of his career" - sure. no doubt.

"as the Quakers are making a push for an Ivy League title" - sure, no doubt.

" and they’ll need him to keep producing at a high level." is a 101 ORat on all games, less on D1 games, really what passes for a high level these days?

Kevin Pelton this use of stats was not. Not even Kevin O'Connor.



Edited by Jeff2sf on 01-17-18 10:15 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
01-18-18 02:47 PM - Post#243905    
    In response to Jeff2sf

It is great to see the coaching staff developing players again.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14045

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-18-18 03:04 PM - Post#243906    
    In response to yoyo

Yes. Too often we've guys with great promise as freshmen look befuddled as upperclassmen.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-18-18 03:06 PM - Post#243907    
    In response to 10Q

Agree.

Also helps to not recruit knuckleheads.


 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 723

Reg: 11-29-04
01-18-18 03:27 PM - Post#243908    
    In response to TheLine

Max has clearly put in some work. He was pretty fragile looking when he entered the league. Finesse player and all elbows and knees. Now he's a solid meaty college forward who can rebound and play defense. That's perhaps more important than his notable improvement as a passer.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Max’s stats
01-18-18 05:12 PM - Post#243912    
    In response to Jeff2sf

I’m not an expert on ORat and DRat and only understand the basics of what these numbers mean. It doesn’t seem to me they can be interpreted in a vacuum. Not sure what it means but Max is one of a small group of Ivy players with an ORat over 100 and DRat under 100. Max and AJ are the only two Ivy players w it’s 100+ ORat and under 95 DRat. I am not sure how significant those numbers actually are but the improvement is clearly visible and the two of them together has been formidable, despite the naysayers.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3749

Reg: 11-22-04
Max’s stats
01-18-18 05:31 PM - Post#243914    
    In response to PennFan10

individual drat stats are next to useless. parsing the d is just going to take a long time.

clearly he helps a little there and especially rebounding. But the last time Mike checked, we weren't particularly good at stopping shots at the rim and much of our success was owing to chasing people off the 3 point line, something Max has little to do with directly.

Meanwhile, we can parse his offense, which is fairly ordinary. It was last time I checked one of the 8 lowest ORats for a starter in the league. He has an above average usage, so maybe if he had a lower burden, he'd be more efficient.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-18-18 05:53 PM - Post#243916    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Aside from minutes, which have doubled, Max is essentially exactly the same player that he was last year.

Much like Penn is essentially the same caliber of team as last year (+1.3 pts better against a similar team than last year).

It's interesting to see the hot takes, though.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
01-18-18 06:03 PM - Post#243919    
    In response to mrjames

Well last year Max got smoked off the dribble by Steven Cook in the IL tournament and could not stay in front of him. This year Myles Stephens could not drive past him and had 2 pts at half on his way to a modest 10. None of that shows up in any stats that I can see but anyone who watched those two games would have to admit he is a much better defender.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18292

Reg: 11-21-04
01-18-18 06:10 PM - Post#243920    
    In response to mrjames

What allows you to say that a 150 team from 2016-17 is no better than a 150 team from '2017-18?

This team does many things better than last year's team and almost never has a lineup which is physically inferior to other Ivy teams, which was the case last year often.

I don't see how a KenPom rating has any basis to make a comparison on the absolute strength of a team in separate years.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-18-18 06:36 PM - Post#243923    
    In response to palestra38

We had this same discussion a week ago and I pointed out the differences in the advanced numbers underneath the surface of the ORats and DRats that indicate something good is going on - other than Penn's even worse FT% this year.

The only response I got was Jeff incorrectly accusing me of not reading Stu's posts. If Jeff's point was that I hadn't unearthed much more than Stu already had then he's kind of correct and I'll take it as a complement that I'm in sync with Stu. But it missed the point of why I wrote the post.

Ultimately the important numbers are that there are 3 down and 11 to go in conference play, with 1 win against the still nominal favorites in the books.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-18-18 07:32 PM - Post#243927    
    In response to TheLine

Block rate and conversion rate at the rim are worse than last year. Your steal rate is down big. The things the defense most controls are significantly worse than last year. Yes, the rebounding has been good, but a lot of that is because opponents are missing more of the shots that are easier to rebound (jumpers and free throws) than they did last year and fewer of the shots that are tougher to rebound (at rim and specifically blocks at the rim).

Two of the things that regressed hardest against you in league play last year (3PT% and FT%) are the primary things driving your “improved” defense. I’d rather have it be things that are more under my control.

Best part about Penn’s D this year is how it scares opponents off the line, but that also turned a bit in league play last year. Need to keep pushing opponents off the line and into 2PT Js.

I’d rather have last year’s D, frankly.

 
Penndemonium 
Masters Student
Posts: 723

Reg: 11-29-04
01-19-18 01:10 AM - Post#243940    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
Block rate and conversion rate at the rim are worse than last year. Your steal rate is down big. The things the defense most controls are significantly worse than last year. Yes, the rebounding has been good, but a lot of that is because opponents are missing more of the shots that are easier to rebound (jumpers and free throws) than they did last year and fewer of the shots that are tougher to rebound (at rim and specifically blocks at the rim).

Two of the things that regressed hardest against you in league play last year (3PT% and FT%) are the primary things driving your “improved” defense. I’d rather have it be things that are more under my control.

Best part about Penn’s D this year is how it scares opponents off the line, but that also turned a bit in league play last year. Need to keep pushing opponents off the line and into 2PT Js.

I’d rather have last year’s D, frankly.



I am also in the club of not knowing the details of ORat and DRat. I understand your points about things a defense controls (steals and blocks). I don't think those stats really capture the full picture on defense. For example, a player could theoretically be really good at staying in front of the player he's guarding and pressuring their shot. He/she could hold them scoreless but still not have a block or steal to their credit. Would this result in a good DRat?

I think that is what many of us are seeing. We don't have any great shot blockers, although Brodeur has some capability there. We don't have any steal specialists like Ibby. At the same time, we all used to cringe at how bad our defense was. It looked completely disorganized with no purpose. I think all of us see something different this year, whether it reflects in the stats. Other teams score on us, but this team isn't frustrating to watch on defense anymore. Even if they don't have better controllable stats, we see them in front of players, putting more pressure on the three point shots, and getting more DRebs.



One of the reasons I think the Ivies did better against us than our out of conference opponents is that we had a gimmick 1-3-1 defense which Ivy coaches took more time to prepare. They also had the shooters to punish us. They also were much more aggressive about double-teaming Brodeur. That is why the emergence of Betley changed our fortunes. Howard was a great player but I saw him as more of a counterpuncher on offense than a guy who could routinely create baskets.

I realize the stat crowd will say that better defense should show up in the numbers. I agree, but I'm wondering if there's something not captured in the DRat. Maybe I'm deluded by the team winning more, but it doesn't look close by the eye test.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Max’s stats
01-19-18 09:07 AM - Post#243950    
    In response to Penndemonium

  • Quote:
I am also in the club of not knowing the details of ORat and DRat. I understand your points about things a defense controls (steals and blocks). I don't think those stats really capture the full picture on defense. For example, a player could theoretically be really good at staying in front of the player he's guarding and pressuring their shot. He/she could hold them scoreless but still not have a block or steal to their credit. Would this result in a good DRat?



Yes. The opponents would get zero points for those possessions, which would lower the opponents' overall points per possessions, which is what defensive rating is.

I'm just giving you the baseline information. You can certainly make arguments that your team is resistant to these empirical results. Sort of like beating Vegas - lots of folks can make up narratives for why they have an edge, but few actually end up manifestly proving it. Just want you to know what you're up against.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:10 AM - Post#243954    
    In response to mrjames

Mike, I hope the coaches around the league agree with you that last year's Penn defense is better than this year's.

Penn is pulling down 78% of the rebounds on the defensive end. While I expect some regression in conference play, Penn's rate was 75% in the first 3 games. This advantage is a purposeful part of the defense - Penn has 5 good rebounders on the court most of the time.

I also like that Penn is chasing the opponents off the 3 point line while also limiting attempts. This too is a purposeful part of the defense - and a major difference in Penn's defensive scheme vs. last year. In the first 3 conference games the opponents did throw up more 3 attempts than Penn's season average but at an abysmal make rate.

It would be great if Penn was better at D around the rim but they aren't. Defense there has been spotty vs. universally awful. A big issue is that Max and Jarrod are both foul prone, AJ can't afford to pick up fouls, and there's limited depth beyond that especially with Eddie out.

I'm not overly concerned about the steal rate - would like it to be better but it is what it is. The D takes away some things and gives up other things. They are effective at taking away passing lanes so it's possible the steal rate will pick up.


Edited by TheLine on 01-19-18 10:25 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
01-19-18 11:04 AM - Post#243962    
    In response to TheLine

As Jarrod settles in we will get better at rim defense, he is a shot blocking presence who is still finding his pace and fit within this team. Each time out he gets a little better.



 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 11:09 AM - Post#243964    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:
I also like that Penn is chasing the opponents off the 3 point line while also limiting attempts.



Meant to say chasing opponents off the 3 point line (limiting number of attempts) while also limiting the make rate.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3749

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 11:10 AM - Post#243965    
    In response to PennFan10

we'd probably be better with Jarrod on the floor than Max.

Reason 1: Jarrod's a shot blocker
Reason 2: Jarrod rebound rate is higher than Max
Reason 3: This is 2018 and shooting threes is a good thing
Reason 4: He turns the ball over less
Reason 5: He would free up AJ to play the position he's better at.

But because we're a slave to a record as opposed to KenPom, we can't make any changes BECAUSE EVERYTHING IS GREAT!

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
01-19-18 11:15 AM - Post#243967    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Jeff, you are exaggerating the majority sentiment of the board. By a lot.

Jarrod's foul rate makes Max's look reasonable. It's enough of a reason for him to come off the bench presently given the lack of front court depth.

I agree it would be nice to see Jarrod get more minutes, he's earning that.



 
 Page 1 of 4 1234
Icon Legend Permissions Topic Options
Report Post

Quote Post

Quick Reply

Print Topic

Email Topic

1717 Views





Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved.
Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution.
FusionBB™ Version 2.1 | ©2003-2007 InteractivePHP, Inc.
Execution time: 0.112 seconds.   Total Queries: 16   Zlib Compression is on.
All times are (GMT -0500) Eastern. Current time is 08:07 AM
Top