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Username Post: Max’s stats        (Topic#21002)
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 10:17 AM - Post#243968    
    In response to TheLine

Dude, you've lost complete control of the plot because we're 3-0. Arguing with Ken Pomeroy and Mike James and Stu Suss and years of empirical analysis just because it "feels" like we have a good defense. Good luck with that.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1922

Reg: 02-15-15
01-19-18 10:19 AM - Post#243969    
    In response to TheLine

Good thing the coach knows more than stats guys. Max is better, by a lot, than Jarrod right now. Steve Donahue is telling us that. And I hope AJ is out of position a lot more if he is going 30/9/6.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 10:26 AM - Post#243972    
    In response to PennFan10

yup, keep banking on 6-12 from 3 bro.

Coaches aren't infallible on personnel decisions. Surely you know that, right? Please tell me you're not that ignorant. Because that would be profoundly, utterly stupid. And I don't think you are that.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:26 AM - Post#243973    
    In response to Jeff2sf

I don't think Donahue is a slave to record. However, he does not make the same mistake you would make and put a raw kid predisposed to fouling and not yet in sync with the team ball movement to play major minutes. Certainly, he wouldn't generalize results from 7 minutes a game and compare that with a guy playing 30. Sample size does matter.

That being said, Simmons will get his opportunity. He is a beast on the boards, and appears to be a very good shooter, especially from the foul line (something Max certainly is not). We'll see about the 3s--too early to tell. But no person with knowledge of the game would take out Max at this point and replace him with Jerrod. There are plenty of minutes on the floor for the big men to give him increased minutes and see if can handle it.

And are you ever able to lay off the personal invective? Sam's comments the other day might have given you pause.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3889

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
01-19-18 10:26 AM - Post#243974    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Do you read what I say or just spout off? I've stated some meaningful numbers that explain why we're a KP 95 rank on D this year so far while last year it was 133. I get why Mike thinks they aren't so meaningful, I think they do indicate a positive difference in the D. Time will tell.

This belief you hold that it's unreasonable to look beyond the numbers you understand is ridiculous.

I get that this is your shtick but it's old. Old enough that I'm done with this conversation.

Grow up.


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1922

Reg: 02-15-15
Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:32 AM - Post#243975    
    In response to PennFan10

3-0 is holding serve. We play two teams better than us each of the next two Saturday's followed by a home stint and then 7 of our last 9 conference games on the road. How we do over that 9 game stretch will define this team. Last season we lost 3 road games and 2 to Princeton in the 0-6 stretch. We are one game better vs those same opponents so far. Way too early to say where we are.

That said, at 12-5 (with two losses to start the season) and playing well (against a worse schedule with horrible stats compared to last year), does anyone really think that information would tell the coaches to make a change at this point? Just because some stats guy thinks last years defense is better? Because Jarrod, who is more of a 5 than Max, will somehow let AJ play a different position? Because Antonio Woods is worse than Sam Jones at shooting 3's? Because Harvard is about to start shooting a better 3pt rate than they have for over half the season? Because Yale is going to get Mason back and be a top 100 team again? Because Princeton is going to be really mad when we play them at Jadwin? Because our A/TO rate is 1.3 this year vs 1.1 last year? Because we rebound missed FT's better this year than last year?

I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays, and we might, at which point we may indeed see more of Jarrod and Devon or Jake or even Kuba (you heard it here first) so we can improve our stats.

Despite this post, Jeff did say I he doesn't think I am an genius (after calling me one) and my wife would likely agree completely with that analysis.

Ok, I'm done now......

Edited by PennFan10 on 01-19-18 10:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 10:35 AM - Post#243979    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:
Do you read what I say or just spout off? I've stated some meaningful numbers that explain why we're a KP 95 rank on D this year so far while last year it was 133. I get why Mike thinks they aren't so meaningful, I think they do indicate a positive difference in the D. Time will tell.

This belief you hold that it's unreasonable to look beyond the numbers you understand is ridiculous.

I get that this is your shtick but it's old. Old enough that I'm done with this conversation.

Grow up.



You state numbers that have been proven to not be super controllable. Is some hedge fund guy with 6 years of beating the market a genius or is he just the last survivor of 1000 people who set out to beat the market due to random chance? I used to respect you even when we disagreed but you've lately crossed the line.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:37 AM - Post#243980    
    In response to PennFan10

  • PennFan10 Said:



I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays,




This is such a terrible take.

Edited by Jeff2sf on 01-19-18 10:49 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5269

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:48 AM - Post#243981    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Just dusted off my PBP code, and Penn's rebounding numbers are, actually, a unicorn. Don't know if they can sustain, but I'm wrong on that point for now.

Opponent offensive rebounding rate by shot type:
All missed layups: 24%
Blocked layups: 19% (!!!!!!!)
Missed 2PT Js: 20%
Missed 3PT Js: 23%
Missed FTs: 16%

Offensively, Penn's rebounding looks very "normal" with layups rebounded at 33%, blocked ones at 41%, missed 2PT Js at 27%, missed 3PT Js at 24% and missed FTs at 10%. Not necessarily the actual number, but the relative rates across type of missed shot. Defensively, something very unique is happening.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:48 AM - Post#243982    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:


And are you ever able to lay off the personal invective? Sam's comments the other day might have given you pause.


Pretty much never against you. You're intellectually dishonest. Can't ever admit you're wrong, don't see how hypocritical you are in the way you switch roles in using data between sports and politics.

Also, who's sam?

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 8289

Reg: 12-07-04
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 10:53 AM - Post#243984    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
iBut the last time Mike checked, we weren't particularly good at stopping shots at the rim


Any chance this is impacted by teams in catch-up mode? It has been happening an awful lot as of late.

As for Simmons, Jarrod controls Jarrod's minutes. Don't pick up silly fouls and he will play more.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 11:00 AM - Post#243985    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Jeff, I am far more honest that you can ever hope to be. You are a small minded little man, who lashes out in anger at anyone questioning your point of view.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 11:08 AM - Post#243992    
    In response to palestra38

admit you're wrong about something penn basketball related, brother. Just one thing. I've done it even when I didn't need to. You instead just move goal posts. So and so would have been good if only he got the ball, or if he wasn't injured. Never once can you say, boy I missed that. Despite missing a lot of things.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3313

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
01-19-18 11:12 AM - Post#243995    
    In response to Jeff2sf

This is just so unpleasant.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
01-19-18 11:13 AM - Post#243996    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Generalized BS--is what you are all about. I have often acknowledged mistakes as to a position. That's opinion, which is what I deal in here. So do you, but the problem is that you consider your opinions to be fact, which they are not. So you never retreat.

But aside from that, you're just a pr..k in here and everyone knows it. A long time alum writes a piece urging you to tone it down--you clearly read it yet now claim you don't know Sam. What a maroon you are.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4674

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 11:13 AM - Post#243997    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Perhaps we are better off playing Simmons more, and that would maximize us. You and I could still be right that we are better off playing Sam Jones. But you can literally do this with any basketball team. It’s a more statistical version of everyone loving the third string QB, but it’s still the same thing. Making that one move would make us . . . 12-5.

There is of course a human element here, too. You can’t get the players to trust in the plan if you don’t show trust in the plan yourself. It appears the culture is strong enough to handle these sorts of tough decisions, but I think there is something to be said for continuity. As we’ve discussed, this wouldn’t have been my starting lineup at the start of the year. It sure as heck would be tomorrow though.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1922

Reg: 02-15-15
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 11:14 AM - Post#243998    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
  • PennFan10 Said:



I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays,




This is such a terrible take.



First, let me acknowledge you for editing your original post to eliminate the "personal" stuff.

You have been lambasted on here for some of that commentary so it's appropriate to acknowledge efforts to keep it argumentative without attacking people personally. Thank you.

As for this 'terrible take', I agree its the most egregious statement I made in an overall egregious post, and I did it for a reason. Non empiricists are making their points on a board set up for just such commentary and are regularly eviscerated by those who use stats ("as a job"). I enjoy the data and appreciate those with the ability to explain it. What I don't enjoy is the sledgehammer of arrogance that sometimes comes with the data.




 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 11:23 AM - Post#244000    
    In response to PennFan10

no seriously, who is sam?

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
01-19-18 11:32 AM - Post#244003    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
Perhaps we are better off playing Simmons more, and that would maximize us. You and I could still be right that we are better off playing Sam Jones. But you can literally do this with any basketball team. It’s a more statistical version of everyone loving the third string QB, but it’s still the same thing. Making that one move would make us . . . 12-5.

There is of course a human element here, too. You can’t get the players to trust in the plan if you don’t show trust in the plan yourself. It appears the culture is strong enough to handle these sorts of tough decisions, but I think there is something to be said for continuity. As we’ve discussed, this wouldn’t have been my starting lineup at the start of the year. It sure as heck would be tomorrow though.



That's true to some extent. Were Max to find himself on the bench tomorrow, that could have knock-on effects to the lineup. But if Max were to get, say, 22 minutes and Jarrod 18, as the start of phasing in Jarrod to the starting lineup, that might be preferred. Also allows you to pull back if, with more minutes, Jarrod isn't outplaying Max by as much as he is now. Ok, good plan.


 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 15245

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-19-18 11:33 AM - Post#244004    
    In response to Jeff2sf

The guy who likes green eggs and ham...

 
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