Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 11:17 AM - Post#243968
In response to TheLine
Dude, you've lost complete control of the plot because we're 3-0. Arguing with Ken Pomeroy and Mike James and Stu Suss and years of empirical analysis just because it "feels" like we have a good defense. Good luck with that.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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01-19-18 11:19 AM - Post#243969
In response to TheLine
Good thing the coach knows more than stats guys. Max is better, by a lot, than Jarrod right now. Steve Donahue is telling us that. And I hope AJ is out of position a lot more if he is going 30/9/6.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 11:26 AM - Post#243972
In response to PennFan10
yup, keep banking on 6-12 from 3 bro.
Coaches aren't infallible on personnel decisions. Surely you know that, right? Please tell me you're not that ignorant. Because that would be profoundly, utterly stupid. And I don't think you are that.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:26 AM - Post#243973
In response to Jeff2sf
I don't think Donahue is a slave to record. However, he does not make the same mistake you would make and put a raw kid predisposed to fouling and not yet in sync with the team ball movement to play major minutes. Certainly, he wouldn't generalize results from 7 minutes a game and compare that with a guy playing 30. Sample size does matter.
That being said, Simmons will get his opportunity. He is a beast on the boards, and appears to be a very good shooter, especially from the foul line (something Max certainly is not). We'll see about the 3s--too early to tell. But no person with knowledge of the game would take out Max at this point and replace him with Jerrod. There are plenty of minutes on the floor for the big men to give him increased minutes and see if can handle it.
And are you ever able to lay off the personal invective? Sam's comments the other day might have given you pause.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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01-19-18 11:26 AM - Post#243974
In response to Jeff2sf
Do you read what I say or just spout off? I've stated some meaningful numbers that explain why we're a KP 95 rank on D this year so far while last year it was 133. I get why Mike thinks they aren't so meaningful, I think they do indicate a positive difference in the D. Time will tell.
This belief you hold that it's unreasonable to look beyond the numbers you understand is ridiculous.
I get that this is your shtick but it's old. Old enough that I'm done with this conversation.
Grow up.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:32 AM - Post#243975
In response to PennFan10
3-0 is holding serve. We play two teams better than us each of the next two Saturday's followed by a home stint and then 7 of our last 9 conference games on the road. How we do over that 9 game stretch will define this team. Last season we lost 3 road games and 2 to Princeton in the 0-6 stretch. We are one game better vs those same opponents so far. Way too early to say where we are.
That said, at 12-5 (with two losses to start the season) and playing well (against a worse schedule with horrible stats compared to last year), does anyone really think that information would tell the coaches to make a change at this point? Just because some stats guy thinks last years defense is better? Because Jarrod, who is more of a 5 than Max, will somehow let AJ play a different position? Because Antonio Woods is worse than Sam Jones at shooting 3's? Because Harvard is about to start shooting a better 3pt rate than they have for over half the season? Because Yale is going to get Mason back and be a top 100 team again? Because Princeton is going to be really mad when we play them at Jadwin? Because our A/TO rate is 1.3 this year vs 1.1 last year? Because we rebound missed FT's better this year than last year?
I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays, and we might, at which point we may indeed see more of Jarrod and Devon or Jake or even Kuba (you heard it here first) so we can improve our stats.
Despite this post, Jeff did say I he doesn't think I am an genius (after calling me one) and my wife would likely agree completely with that analysis.
Ok, I'm done now......
Edited by PennFan10 on 01-19-18 11:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 11:35 AM - Post#243979
In response to TheLine
Do you read what I say or just spout off? I've stated some meaningful numbers that explain why we're a KP 95 rank on D this year so far while last year it was 133. I get why Mike thinks they aren't so meaningful, I think they do indicate a positive difference in the D. Time will tell.
This belief you hold that it's unreasonable to look beyond the numbers you understand is ridiculous.
I get that this is your shtick but it's old. Old enough that I'm done with this conversation.
Grow up.
You state numbers that have been proven to not be super controllable. Is some hedge fund guy with 6 years of beating the market a genius or is he just the last survivor of 1000 people who set out to beat the market due to random chance? I used to respect you even when we disagreed but you've lately crossed the line.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:37 AM - Post#243980
In response to PennFan10
I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays,
This is such a terrible take.
Edited by Jeff2sf on 01-19-18 11:49 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:48 AM - Post#243981
In response to Jeff2sf
Just dusted off my PBP code, and Penn's rebounding numbers are, actually, a unicorn. Don't know if they can sustain, but I'm wrong on that point for now.
Opponent offensive rebounding rate by shot type:
All missed layups: 24%
Blocked layups: 19% (!!!!!!!)
Missed 2PT Js: 20%
Missed 3PT Js: 23%
Missed FTs: 16%
Offensively, Penn's rebounding looks very "normal" with layups rebounded at 33%, blocked ones at 41%, missed 2PT Js at 27%, missed 3PT Js at 24% and missed FTs at 10%. Not necessarily the actual number, but the relative rates across type of missed shot. Defensively, something very unique is happening.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:48 AM - Post#243982
In response to palestra38
And are you ever able to lay off the personal invective? Sam's comments the other day might have given you pause.
Pretty much never against you. You're intellectually dishonest. Can't ever admit you're wrong, don't see how hypocritical you are in the way you switch roles in using data between sports and politics.
Also, who's sam?
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12480
Reg: 12-07-04
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Re: Max’s stats 01-19-18 11:53 AM - Post#243984
In response to Jeff2sf
iBut the last time Mike checked, we weren't particularly good at stopping shots at the rim
Any chance this is impacted by teams in catch-up mode? It has been happening an awful lot as of late.
As for Simmons, Jarrod controls Jarrod's minutes. Don't pick up silly fouls and he will play more.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Max’s stats 01-19-18 12:00 PM - Post#243985
In response to Jeff2sf
Jeff, I am far more honest that you can ever hope to be. You are a small minded little man, who lashes out in anger at anyone questioning your point of view.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 12:08 PM - Post#243992
In response to palestra38
admit you're wrong about something penn basketball related, brother. Just one thing. I've done it even when I didn't need to. You instead just move goal posts. So and so would have been good if only he got the ball, or if he wasn't injured. Never once can you say, boy I missed that. Despite missing a lot of things.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3765
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-19-18 12:12 PM - Post#243995
In response to Jeff2sf
This is just so unpleasant.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-19-18 12:13 PM - Post#243996
In response to Jeff2sf
Generalized BS--is what you are all about. I have often acknowledged mistakes as to a position. That's opinion, which is what I deal in here. So do you, but the problem is that you consider your opinions to be fact, which they are not. So you never retreat.
But aside from that, you're just a pr..k in here and everyone knows it. A long time alum writes a piece urging you to tone it down--you clearly read it yet now claim you don't know Sam. What a maroon you are.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6391
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 12:13 PM - Post#243997
In response to Jeff2sf
Perhaps we are better off playing Simmons more, and that would maximize us. You and I could still be right that we are better off playing Sam Jones. But you can literally do this with any basketball team. It’s a more statistical version of everyone loving the third string QB, but it’s still the same thing. Making that one move would make us . . . 12-5.
There is of course a human element here, too. You can’t get the players to trust in the plan if you don’t show trust in the plan yourself. It appears the culture is strong enough to handle these sorts of tough decisions, but I think there is something to be said for continuity. As we’ve discussed, this wouldn’t have been my starting lineup at the start of the year. It sure as heck would be tomorrow though.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3580
Reg: 02-15-15
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Re: Max’s stats 01-19-18 12:14 PM - Post#243998
In response to Jeff2sf
I am sure some on here hope we get beat by 50 each of the next two Saturdays,
This is such a terrible take.
First, let me acknowledge you for editing your original post to eliminate the "personal" stuff.
You have been lambasted on here for some of that commentary so it's appropriate to acknowledge efforts to keep it argumentative without attacking people personally. Thank you.
As for this 'terrible take', I agree its the most egregious statement I made in an overall egregious post, and I did it for a reason. Non empiricists are making their points on a board set up for just such commentary and are regularly eviscerated by those who use stats ("as a job"). I enjoy the data and appreciate those with the ability to explain it. What I don't enjoy is the sledgehammer of arrogance that sometimes comes with the data.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 12:23 PM - Post#244000
In response to PennFan10
no seriously, who is sam?
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-19-18 12:32 PM - Post#244003
In response to SomeGuy
Perhaps we are better off playing Simmons more, and that would maximize us. You and I could still be right that we are better off playing Sam Jones. But you can literally do this with any basketball team. It’s a more statistical version of everyone loving the third string QB, but it’s still the same thing. Making that one move would make us . . . 12-5.
There is of course a human element here, too. You can’t get the players to trust in the plan if you don’t show trust in the plan yourself. It appears the culture is strong enough to handle these sorts of tough decisions, but I think there is something to be said for continuity. As we’ve discussed, this wouldn’t have been my starting lineup at the start of the year. It sure as heck would be tomorrow though.
That's true to some extent. Were Max to find himself on the bench tomorrow, that could have knock-on effects to the lineup. But if Max were to get, say, 22 minutes and Jarrod 18, as the start of phasing in Jarrod to the starting lineup, that might be preferred. Also allows you to pull back if, with more minutes, Jarrod isn't outplaying Max by as much as he is now. Ok, good plan.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23199
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-19-18 12:33 PM - Post#244004
In response to Jeff2sf
The guy who likes green eggs and ham...
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