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Username Post: Max’s stats        (Topic#21002)
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3652

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
01-19-18 07:46 PM - Post#244071    
    In response to mrjames

I ran through the OReb rates of Penn's opposition and they're bad. That likely has much to do with it. So yes, Penn's DReb rate is inflated.

Observationally, part of Penn's defensive scheme is to suck up defensive rebounds. And while I'm not convinced it's necessarily going to work well against teams that place a greater emphasis on offensive rebounds, the teams in the league all have below average OReb rates so it's possible Penn's defensive rebounding rate will continue to look good.

I do think there's something to Penn's ability to suppress 3 attempts.

On a different note, the personal attacks are a form of intellectual dishonesty. I understand it's popular nowadays but I'd hope this board can be above that.


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1800

Reg: 02-15-15
01-19-18 07:50 PM - Post#244072    
    In response to TheLine

One thing I know is different this year on defense is the fact we are hard hedging ball screens when the ball is in a shooter's hands (while the on ball defender chases over the screen...we are going under screens for non-shooters). Last year and year before we soft hedged and chased over the top, encouraging 2pters. That results in more ball rotation from the offense to get open looks off the double team/switch. Sometimes we have played that well and sometimes we haven't.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3652

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
01-19-18 08:00 PM - Post#244074    
    In response to PennFan10

Yes, that has much to do with suppressing the 3 point attempts. And while the offense has more to say about 3 point rates, the defense does have something to do with it. Based on the personnel, Donahue has decided to emphasize the things his starters do well. That's what good coaches do.


 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1800

Reg: 02-15-15
01-19-18 08:08 PM - Post#244075    
    In response to TheLine

With Max's increased mobility and AJ's length, we are also mostly switching ball screens and the two big guys on guards is keeping them from launching 3's at times (mike Smith excepted)

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5238

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Max’s stats
01-19-18 08:37 PM - Post#244077    
    In response to PennFan10

I apologize if people think I’m trying to inflame or troll a fan base. I’m just in this for different reasons most folks on these boards. What these message boards and talking with folks around the league helps me do is to find things to test, which ultimately prove to be real or not and can provide an edge in making predictions over current best-in-class systems (KenPom, Bart, even Vegas). I’m a fan of the league so I want to ground my work in the context of games/schools I enjoy, but I’m far more obsessed with predictions being right than a particular school winning.

I do understand, though, that view is at cross-purposes with the objective of these boards so at times it can be unwelcome.

 
Stuart Suss 
Masters Student
Posts: 953

Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
Max’s stats
01-19-18 09:13 PM - Post#244079    
    In response to mrjames

Because there has been a lot of debate about individual defensive ratings, let me quote from a Mike James post from earlier this season:


QUOTE FROM MIKE JAMES:
Any defensive metrics that try to get to an individual's contribution are going to be challenged, primarily because defense is a team game, and much of how an individual performs well or poorly on defense is reflected in measurable outcomes that can often accrue to others.

Just to level set, here's what's in each defensive metric:

Individual DRAT - Based heavily on a team's overall defense, it assumes that players don't have a differential impact on forcing non-steal turnovers or forcing opponents to miss shots that aren't explicitly blocked (or otherwise put - that the team contributes equally to those outcomes). Where the individual DRATs will differ from the team DRAT is based on the number of DREBs, STLs and BLKs (stops) that a player produces. This obviously favors bigs as the best defenders, and there is a lot of debate about whether that's actually wrong (it might not be given that layups are the most efficient and defensively controllable shot).

I don't love individual DRAT. It has value in so much as stops are important and garnering stops is a defensive skill. Let's not understate that. The problem is, unlike assists in offensive rating which allow for the distribution of positive outcomes across the parties directly involved, if the on-ball defense is tight, forcing a player to throw up a shot that is easy to block or a pass that's easy to steal, that on-ball defender gets no credit for the outcome. In fact, the best on-ball defenders being assigned to the highest usage opposing players means that the best on-ball defenders explicitly WON'T be in line to get stops, even if they forced most of them.

Defensive Win Shares - Pretty much the same as Individual DRAT. Use Individual DRAT to figure out a player's marginal defensive value (in points) and then divide by the number of points that equal a win.

Lineup-Based DRAT - This is my preferred method, because it is based on actual defensive outcomes in points not in blocks, steals and rebounds. It also allows for understanding style (when this big is on the floor, the opponents shoot 20/50/30 layups/2PTJ/3PTJ, but when this big is off, opponents shoot 40/20/40). So it gives you a much better sense not only of true defensive performance, but how those outcomes are achieved (which can help for tracing back to what is random success/failure of an opponent and what is forced success/failure of an opponent).

Negative here is sample. Need a TON of sample to feel good about the all-else-equal nature of the analysis and the fact that randomness, which can linger for a while, has yielded to actual signal.

NONE OF THIS is a replacement for the great x/y coordinate-based and situational-analysis (PnR D, post D, etc.) work going on. That being said, with proper sample, the lineup-based DRAT does a nice 80/20 job of getting you to the right answer.
END OF QUOTE FROM MIKE JAMES:



I am not as confident as Mike in the accuracy, at the college level, of lineup-based DRAT. It is my view that lineup-based DRAT works best in the NBA where you have a much larger sample size arising from the shorter shot clock, the 48 minute game, and the 82 game regular season.

With that minor quibble, I am in substantial agreement with Mike's other thoughts as quoted above.

I think it is perfectly appropriate for an "eye test" to be preferred over a DRat when evaluating INDIVIDUAL defense.

I do believe numbers are useful for measuring TEAM defense. I would distinguish between "set" defense and "transition" defense since the latter is frequently a product of offensive failures (live ball turnovers or live ball defensive rebounds leading to opponent fast break scores).

Prior to my retirement, we measured set defense and transition defense separately. I am not aware of any public site that does so. In the absence of that information, I would rely on Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency numbers which are adjusted according to the strength of the opponent.


One final point. I know Jeff and Chip and P38 personally. I, like others, am distressed at the vitriol on this site. To avoid contributing to that discord, I am inclined to hold off publishing my own numbers until the completion of the season.


Edited by Stuart Suss on 01-19-18 09:19 PM. Reason for edit: Clarifying Ken Pomeroy's statistics

 
Chip Bayers 
Postdoc
Posts: 4684
Chip Bayers
Loc: New York
Reg: 11-21-04
01-19-18 10:44 PM - Post#244084    
    In response to PennFan10

  • Quote:
the enemy of the enemy is my friend but on the other hand you called me boorish.



  • Quote:
We are better off with Howard gone.



An individual’s pathology reduced to two sentences.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3777

Reg: 11-22-04
Max’s stats
01-20-18 07:39 AM - Post#244097    
    In response to Chip Bayers

yeah I kinda set myself up there. But in fairness the first statement was a joke.



 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3777

Reg: 11-22-04
Max’s stats
01-20-18 08:21 AM - Post#244098    
    In response to SomeGuy

  • SomeGuy Said:
I think whether he is even outplaying Max is complicated, as well. If you take away the division 3 game and the Delaware state game, he’s a 50% free throw shooter, sub 30% from 3. His rebound rate was better in the very small sample size of the first 3 Ivy games, but again overall his rebounding numbers don’t look like much without the games against non division one talent.

The other thing to keep in mind is that he basically played every minute he could against Princeton and Cornell — he fouled out of one and got 4 in the other. So not the rotation limiting his minutes there.






In the light of day, I have to agree I went further with my conclusions than the data would necessarily support. I think what I'm saying could be true but also might not. I'm not as worried about the foul rate because Jarrod just seemed to go foul crazy in those two games (maybe also Monmouth). The rest of the games are 0 or 1 fouls). I continue to believe that a player that plays further from the rim on offense and doesn't get in AJ's and potential drivers to the hoop's way will unlock more for everyone.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1800

Reg: 02-15-15
01-20-18 11:38 AM - Post#244108    
    In response to Jeff2sf

The Monmouth game is a throw away. What a joke. 79 fouls and over 100 FT.

Can you point out specific instances where another big gotnin AJs way? I don’t remember any, but I may not have seen it. AJ gets the balk in the block and Max is on the weak block whenever that person doubles the pass goes big to big for easy points. That has happened many times this year. Princeton, Dayton, Cornell, even Villanova. All those games had big to big assists. That’s not even counting the skip pass 3s we get when the defense rotates to cover the other big on the weak block. It seems to me the offense is more open this year than last because those two are such good passers. We are making 3s at a better rate and AJ is getting many low block touches every game he is getting doubled right away for the most part. I just don’t see what you are saying. Am I missing something?

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4605

Reg: 11-22-04
01-20-18 11:51 PM - Post#244289    
    In response to PennFan10

Well, it's only one game, but AJ's big game against Columbia happened almost entirely with Max off the floor. To me, there isn't any question that AJ would score more (quite possibly a lot more) if he was on the floor with a lineup more like last year's lineup. Of course, the question isn't just maximizing AJ. If the rest of the mix makes up the difference, we are better off getting 12 ppg from AJ than 18ppg.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1800

Reg: 02-15-15
Max’s stats
01-21-18 12:38 AM - Post#244294    
    In response to SomeGuy

Well, AJ played 36 minutes Saturday and 11:39 of those minutes he was the only big on the floor. He was 8-14 from the floor for 21 of his 30 pts. However he was 5-9 from 3 (3-5 from 2) during that time and had 1 rebound and 2 blocks. That included the 1:44 at the end of the half when he went 3-4 from 3.

So if the theory is AJ would have more room in the paint as the only big on the floor, I'm not sure the Columbia game supports that argument as AJ played an awful lot on the perimeter and scored 15 of his 21 from the arc as the sole big.

For those of you who are advocating an AJ as the only big lineup, who would you play? Presumably Caleb, which puts Betley in the role of guarding the 4.

I think SD is mainly playing 2 bigs because the current starting 5 are his best defenders. If Betley has to guard the 4 consistently, I am not sure how well he would hold up and how it would affect him on the other end. Maybe you are right and AJ would score a lot more, and the other team might score a lot more too. That seems to be what SD is saying with his lineup.

Edited by PennFan10 on 01-21-18 12:39 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4605

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Max’s stats
01-21-18 11:08 AM - Post#244307    
    In response to PennFan10

It's not just about room to operate inside. The reason he was able to hit those 3s is because Faulds and Tape were guarding him -- the guys who would have been on Max if he had been the game. If Meisner is guarding him, that might not have been there.

Anyway, I'm just explaining why it's better for AJ in terms of how much he scores. Personally, at this point I agree with you that what is best for the team is the 2 big lineup. I like that we have the option to play small with Betley at the 4, as we did for very effective stretches against Columbia. But I like the more traditional 2 big lineup just fine.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1800

Reg: 02-15-15
02-04-18 06:40 PM - Post#246108    
    In response to SomeGuy

High praise from SD for Max

http://www.cityofbasketballlove.com/news_article/s...

 
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