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Username Post: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!        (Topic#21044)
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18284

Reg: 11-21-04
01-26-18 05:48 PM - Post#244719    

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...

We'll CRUSH Kansas!

 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1996

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-29-18 03:29 PM - Post#245089    
    In response to palestra38

Still a 15 seed, but now we're staying in the East.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...

Auburn is beatable, right?

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
01-29-18 03:40 PM - Post#245092    
    In response to Cvonvorys

What is the weather like in Nashville in March? Should I bring my golf clubs?

 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1996

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
01-29-18 03:47 PM - Post#245096    
    In response to yoyo

Bring your clubs and your appetite. Tons of great bars and restaurants. Stay thirsty, my friend...

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
01-30-18 04:41 PM - Post#245170    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Sounds like my kind of place. Any good Brew Pubs?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 04:48 PM - Post#245172    
    In response to yoyo

I think Princeton could make the 14 or even the 13 with enough other conf tourney losses, and that Penn could make the 14 line. Harvard's ceiling is probably the 15. Anyone else is looking at a 16/Dayton.

The big determinant here will be how well Harvard, Penn and Princeton hold serve against the rest of the league. All three would be Top 100 RPI if they win out and Top 125 if they lose only two. If the winner of the league only hits 10-4 or so, our ceiling declines dramatically.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18284

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 04:50 PM - Post#245173    
    In response to mrjames

I think only Princeton is capable of losing no more than 1 more. But both Ps have so many road games in front of them that this schedule is shaping up to be brutal.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 05:12 PM - Post#245176    
    In response to mrjames

I think the 14 seed may be as good as it gets for the Ivy League this year. Can you think of any other year where Ivy teams have done, collectively, so lousy OOC?

There's really no single OOC victory to hang one's hat on--that Princeton-USC game is such an outlier in that it in no way resembles whatever USC squad will be out on the floor for a post-season tourney appearance.

The best thing we can really say in terms of any IL team OOC is that Princeton has played quite competitively against some upper tier teams, even as they have not resulted in wins.

If Princeton would have been able to finish 14-0 in the IL and then win the tourney perhaps the envelope could have been pushed. But that ship has already sailed.

Edited by penn nation on 01-30-18 05:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 05:42 PM - Post#245182    
    In response to penn nation

From a wins perspective we'd have to go way back.

To be fair, though, a LOT of Ivies have played competitively in Column 1 and 2 games (Brown took a Tier 1 oppt - Provy - to overtime; Cornell has a Tier 2 win at Toledo; Penn has a Tier 2 win at Dayton; Harvard was close in a bunch of Tier 2 ones; Columbia was close in some Tier 2 games, etc.). The game score averages are pretty middle of the pack, which would indicate that this isn't the worst OOC performance we've seen - it just didn't generate a lot of notable wins.

There are usually about 8 or so upsets in conf tourney play of which most of the 16 line gets populated. If there are more than usual, it can have a real effect to push teams up to surprising heights. And the one-bid league discussion won't get to the detail of "what USC team Princeton faced." That'll be a seed-line changing win for the Tigers.

But yeah, with a reasonable year of upsets, 13 is probably not realistic.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3500

Reg: 02-04-06
01-30-18 08:32 PM - Post#245192    
    In response to mrjames

I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
01-30-18 08:49 PM - Post#245196    
    In response to SRP

You guys had enough trouble with AJ and Max.



  • SRP Said:
I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.




 
section110 
Masters Student
Posts: 748

Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
01-31-18 12:37 PM - Post#245237    
    In response to SRP

Can we talk now about the St. Joe's loss, then?

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3500

Reg: 02-04-06
01-31-18 03:03 PM - Post#245249    
    In response to section110

Try Lehigh while you're at it. Some bad early losses this year.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14039

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
01-31-18 06:03 PM - Post#245276    
    In response to SRP

Are we discussing Princeton sucking? This deserves its own thread.

 
Mike Porter 
Postdoc
Posts: 2393
Mike Porter
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
01-31-18 08:28 PM - Post#245297    
    In response to SRP

  • SRP Said:
I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.



So just to clarify... by Penn posters, I think you mean Penn Nation. I don’t really get his harping on it either (easily and by far the best Ivy win even if they had another starter out).

Sorry PN, I’m not sure I get the focus on it.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
01-31-18 09:16 PM - Post#245307    
    In response to Mike Porter

I’ll even stipulate that it was the best Ivy win of the year. But that’s by default. I’d put Penn’s defeat of Princeton as #2.



 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2254

Reg: 11-23-04
02-01-18 12:25 AM - Post#245336    
    In response to penn nation

PN's preoccupation with dismissing P's win over USC probably has some simple explanation. Maybe one of his boy or girl chicks is a student there.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
02-01-18 09:47 AM - Post#245347    
    In response to penn nation

Good win for the Quakers, a rare Ivy loss for the Tigers. Fascinating to watch Henderson build a very productive, nationwide recruiting network, a supportive coaching staff and a current roster of contented role players 9 or 10 deep. Henderson was successful with the holdovers from the Johnson team but really hit his stride when Weisz, Cook, Brase, Bell, et al. signed up. Donahue turned things around quickly, although not unexpectedly, setting the stage for a new era of hostility at the south end of the Ivy League. For me the likelihood of three Penn games each year is delicious, even in the face of a not insignificant HCA at The Cathedral. Henderson record: 67-22 in the Ivies in 6+ seasons, 30-3 since 2015-16.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14039

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 11:47 AM - Post#245366    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Yes, it's time this rivalry got competitive again.

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
02-01-18 12:22 PM - Post#245371    
    In response to 10Q

Return to Normalcy

 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1996

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-01-18 12:28 PM - Post#245373    
    In response to yoyo

According to the latest Bracketology, we are now on the outside looking in:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...

Hopefully this changes after this weekend's games.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 12:47 PM - Post#245375    
    In response to Cvonvorys

If you sweep, there's a ~70% chance you're back in the top slot after the dust clears Saturday night.

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
02-01-18 01:15 PM - Post#245380    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Lunardi is just a sore loser

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
02-01-18 01:47 PM - Post#245384    
    In response to yoyo

The USC coach used the absence of 4 regular players as an excuse for the loss. That’s not PN talking. It’s an asterisk at best. Princeton sucks.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14039

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 01:57 PM - Post#245385    
    In response to PennFan10

Getting our old bravado back I see.

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
Masters Student
Posts: 817

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
02-01-18 02:12 PM - Post#245388    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:
If you sweep, there's a ~70% chance you're back in the top slot after the dust clears Saturday night.


And a 20% chance of showers, regardless of how the games turn out.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-01-18 02:46 PM - Post#245394    
    In response to PennFan10

That win against USC is important.

Penn beat Princeton
Princeton beat USC
USC beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18284

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-01-18 02:57 PM - Post#245396    
    In response to TheLine

Naw---I can beat it without USC.

Penn beat Dayton

Dayton beat St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies beat Syracuse

Syracuse beat Maryland

Maryland beat Butler

Butler beat Villanova

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
02-01-18 04:36 PM - Post#245411    
    In response to palestra38

Or the bank shot off Harvard:

Penn
Monmouth
Manhattan
Harvard
UMass
Providence
Butler
Villanova


 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3202

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-01-18 05:35 PM - Post#245422    
    In response to TheLine

More fun with the transitive property:

Time is Money.
Money talks.
Talk is cheap.
So time is cheap.

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
02-07-18 04:57 PM - Post#246801    
    In response to yoyo

15th seed playing Michigan St as of 2/5. maybe down to a 14 after trouncing Princeton?

 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1996

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-26-18 12:38 PM - Post#249585    
    In response to yoyo

Currently looking at a 15th seed vs. Purdue:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...

After knocking off the Boilermakers, we'd face the winner of the Creighton/Virginia Tech game. Winnable.

 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14039

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 12:43 PM - Post#249586    
    In response to Cvonvorys

I don't buy 15. I think 13. OK, I'm an optimist.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 02:11 PM - Post#249606    
    In response to Cvonvorys

According to that site, Harvard still has a better RPI than Penn (128 v 134).

Solely the result of Harvard playing a tougher schedule, even though the only Top 150 RPI team H has actually beaten so far is Penn (and lost to it the other time).

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 02:24 PM - Post#249608    
    In response to Cvonvorys

Win out, and 15 is likely - 14 a possibility with S-curve luck. The difference means a lot because the drop off after the 2-seeds is huge and if you get past that you end up with a 6-11 winner that could be manageable. At 15, I want Duke! Revenge for '78!

 
yoyo 
Junior
Posts: 206

Reg: 03-25-09
02-26-18 02:54 PM - Post#249614    
    In response to Streamers

I agree with 10Q - win out and 13

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-26-18 03:05 PM - Post#249618    
    In response to yoyo

  • yoyo Said:
I agree with 10Q - win out and 13


wishful thinking - our SOS pretty much nixes that


 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 04:15 PM - Post#249630    
    In response to Streamers

  • Streamers Said:
Win out, and 15 is likely - 14 a possibility with S-curve luck.



This is completely spot on. Anyone who is thinking of a 13 is going to be severely disappointed. Our SOS is just horrendous and even the IL tourney will not alter that.

In fact, if Penn does make it in conceivably the only teams we've played who would even be in the NCAA tourney could be 'Nova (the only for sure team) and Toledo. You never know what the other conference tourneys could do, of course.

First things first, of course--gotta get in.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18284

Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 04:31 PM - Post#249633    
    In response to penn nation

Believe it or not, Navy has 20 wins and could conceivably win the Patriot League tournament.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3202

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-26-18 04:33 PM - Post#249634    
    In response to penn nation

13 seems unrealistic. Our schedule consisted largely of teams that came in little paper wrappers, topped with pink icing and sprinkles. Tasty, but empty calories.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 04:33 PM - Post#249635    
    In response to palestra38

They've gotten destroyed twice by Bucknell, the regular season champ.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 18284

Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 04:43 PM - Post#249640    
    In response to penn nation

3rd time's a charm

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 05:50 PM - Post#249647    
    In response to Silver Maple

Dayton will be key to watch. Right now, Penn's projected resume (pre-Ivy Tourney) is:

Quad1 (site adj Top 50): 0-1
Quad2 (site adj Top 100): 1-2
Quad3: 4-3
Quad4: 17-1

Dayton is BARELY hanging on as a Quad2 win and could easily fall to a Quad3. The Ivy Tourney would add, at best, one more Quad3 and one more Quad4 win (easily could be two more Quad4 wins).

It's NCSOS is 278.

That to me feels like a 15. With a loss this weekend, it might even tip to being a 16 without some real conf tourney damage elsewhere.

If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 06:00 PM - Post#249652    
    In response to mrjames

Wins over Toledo and LaSalle or beating Temple would have made 14 or 13 with luck a win-out scenario, but as it is... Mike pretty well summed it up.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 06:05 PM - Post#249654    
    In response to Streamers

Yes. Or, for that matter, beating Harvard in Allston as a potentially undefeated IL season and very long winning streak to end the year would have helped seeding as well.

 
Cvonvorys 
PhD Student
Posts: 1996

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
02-26-18 06:23 PM - Post#249657    
    In response to penn nation

Not for nothing, but did anyone actually expect us to be having this conversation back in November?

I went back and looked up my hopes for their first game against Fairfield, but in effect it was my hope for the entire season:

1) Brodeur and Betley picking up where they left off last year.

2) Brodeur and Rothschild playing well while on the floor together.

3) Woods living up to P38's expectations.

4) Wood eliminating his TO problem and draining 3-pointer after 3-pointer.

5) Foreman, relieved of any scoring burden, becoming the quintessential point guard.

6) The freshmen getting some playing time and showing off their potential.

7) Contribution from an unexpected source.

Rather prescient on my part, especially regarding Caleb, don't you think?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 06:27 PM - Post#249658    
    In response to Streamers

Funny thing is that, how the quadrants work, only Temple would have definitely helped, as that's a solid Quad2 game. La Salle is surprisingly enough a Quad4 game (it's that only Penn Quad4 loss).

Toledo would be darn close to Quad2, which would be helpful, but is borderline much like Dayton.

All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 06:30 PM - Post#249659    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:

All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.



Besides 'Nova at 'Nova (or its cubby hole, anyways)




 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 06:57 PM - Post#249662    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:

If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.



The only reason for that would be losing to higher ranked teams which doesn't say very much for one's resume.

It certainly wouldn't be due to any actual wins on Harvard's part. Other than beating Penn, its best victories have come vs St Joseph's (#184) which Penn has also beaten, Yale (#200, and ditto) and then you're down to BU (#223).


 
10Q 
Professor
Posts: 14039

Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 07:06 PM - Post#249664    
    In response to Cvonvorys

I predicted 14 and 0.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3611

Age: 54
Reg: 07-07-09
02-26-18 07:09 PM - Post#249665    
    In response to penn nation

Harvard's signature win is against Penn. So yeah, I'm failing to see how that makes Harvard more attractive.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 07:24 PM - Post#249668    
    In response to TheLine

You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.

Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.

From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1727

Reg: 02-15-15
02-26-18 07:26 PM - Post#249669    
    In response to TheLine

Yea, Harvard’s resume better than Penn’s? I don’t see it. They lost to better teams but they really haven’t beat anybody.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 07:45 PM - Post#249672    
    In response to mrjames

Based on that convoluted bit of gymnastics worthy of an Olympic medal, I think I finally get why they call it March Madness.

  • mrjames Said:
You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.

Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.

From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.




 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-26-18 07:58 PM - Post#249674    
    In response to penn nation

How the committee makes decisions requires you to unlearn a lot of what you believe to be (and objectively is) reasonably true.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 08:39 PM - Post#249684    
    In response to mrjames

I would take that comment seriously if the selection committee was consistent and predictable.

But every year they find new and different ways to leave teams out.

 
Silver Maple 
Postdoc
Posts: 3202

Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
02-26-18 10:22 PM - Post#249702    
    In response to penn nation

Well, that's consistency right there, yes?

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
02-26-18 10:46 PM - Post#249706    
    In response to Silver Maple

You're 2 nights early for Purim.



 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 11225

Reg: 12-02-04
03-01-18 09:50 PM - Post#250086    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
3rd time's a charm



We'll never know, as Navy gets knocked off by 11-18 Holy Cross in the first round.


 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3500

Reg: 02-04-06
03-02-18 11:26 PM - Post#250341    
    In response to penn nation

Carmody trying for another Patriot tournament miracle run.

 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2328
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
03-03-18 03:44 PM - Post#250447    
    In response to SRP

As of this afternoon - our Kenpom still hanging at 133; Lunardi has Penn/Duke 15/2 in the east (Charlotte) and CBS is the same except they are slotting in Harvard (as they should at this point)

If Duke wins tonight - they are a 7(!) point favorite at home - They will likely end up a 1 seed unless they lose very early in the ACC tournament; even then it may not matter.

 
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