palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-26-18 05:48 PM - Post#244719
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
We'll CRUSH Kansas!
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4473
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-29-18 03:29 PM - Post#245089
In response to palestra38
Still a 15 seed, but now we're staying in the East.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
Auburn is beatable, right?
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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01-29-18 03:40 PM - Post#245092
In response to Cvonvorys
What is the weather like in Nashville in March? Should I bring my golf clubs?
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4473
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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01-29-18 03:47 PM - Post#245096
In response to yoyo
Bring your clubs and your appetite. Tons of great bars and restaurants. Stay thirsty, my friend...
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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01-30-18 04:41 PM - Post#245170
In response to Cvonvorys
Sounds like my kind of place. Any good Brew Pubs?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 04:48 PM - Post#245172
In response to yoyo
I think Princeton could make the 14 or even the 13 with enough other conf tourney losses, and that Penn could make the 14 line. Harvard's ceiling is probably the 15. Anyone else is looking at a 16/Dayton.
The big determinant here will be how well Harvard, Penn and Princeton hold serve against the rest of the league. All three would be Top 100 RPI if they win out and Top 125 if they lose only two. If the winner of the league only hits 10-4 or so, our ceiling declines dramatically.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 04:50 PM - Post#245173
In response to mrjames
I think only Princeton is capable of losing no more than 1 more. But both Ps have so many road games in front of them that this schedule is shaping up to be brutal.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 05:12 PM - Post#245176
In response to mrjames
I think the 14 seed may be as good as it gets for the Ivy League this year. Can you think of any other year where Ivy teams have done, collectively, so lousy OOC?
There's really no single OOC victory to hang one's hat on--that Princeton-USC game is such an outlier in that it in no way resembles whatever USC squad will be out on the floor for a post-season tourney appearance.
The best thing we can really say in terms of any IL team OOC is that Princeton has played quite competitively against some upper tier teams, even as they have not resulted in wins.
If Princeton would have been able to finish 14-0 in the IL and then win the tourney perhaps the envelope could have been pushed. But that ship has already sailed.
Edited by penn nation on 01-30-18 05:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
01-30-18 05:42 PM - Post#245182
In response to penn nation
From a wins perspective we'd have to go way back.
To be fair, though, a LOT of Ivies have played competitively in Column 1 and 2 games (Brown took a Tier 1 oppt - Provy - to overtime; Cornell has a Tier 2 win at Toledo; Penn has a Tier 2 win at Dayton; Harvard was close in a bunch of Tier 2 ones; Columbia was close in some Tier 2 games, etc.). The game score averages are pretty middle of the pack, which would indicate that this isn't the worst OOC performance we've seen - it just didn't generate a lot of notable wins.
There are usually about 8 or so upsets in conf tourney play of which most of the 16 line gets populated. If there are more than usual, it can have a real effect to push teams up to surprising heights. And the one-bid league discussion won't get to the detail of "what USC team Princeton faced." That'll be a seed-line changing win for the Tigers.
But yeah, with a reasonable year of upsets, 13 is probably not realistic.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4911
Reg: 02-04-06
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01-30-18 08:32 PM - Post#245192
In response to mrjames
I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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01-30-18 08:49 PM - Post#245196
In response to SRP
You guys had enough trouble with AJ and Max.
I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.
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section110
Masters Student
Posts: 847
Loc: south jersey
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-31-18 12:37 PM - Post#245237
In response to SRP
Can we talk now about the St. Joe's loss, then?
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4911
Reg: 02-04-06
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01-31-18 03:03 PM - Post#245249
In response to section110
Try Lehigh while you're at it. Some bad early losses this year.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-31-18 06:03 PM - Post#245276
In response to SRP
Are we discussing Princeton sucking? This deserves its own thread.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-31-18 08:28 PM - Post#245297
In response to SRP
I've watched USC a lot, and they've played plenty of winning basketball against tough competition without Boatwright being available. The Penn posters' obsession with knocking down that win is laughable.
So just to clarify... by Penn posters, I think you mean Penn Nation. I don’t really get his harping on it either (easily and by far the best Ivy win even if they had another starter out).
Sorry PN, I’m not sure I get the focus on it.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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01-31-18 09:16 PM - Post#245307
In response to Mike Porter
I’ll even stipulate that it was the best Ivy win of the year. But that’s by default. I’d put Penn’s defeat of Princeton as #2.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2814
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-01-18 12:25 AM - Post#245336
In response to penn nation
PN's preoccupation with dismissing P's win over USC probably has some simple explanation. Maybe one of his boy or girl chicks is a student there.
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JadwinGeorge
Senior
Posts: 357
Age: 75
Reg: 12-04-15
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02-01-18 09:47 AM - Post#245347
In response to penn nation
Good win for the Quakers, a rare Ivy loss for the Tigers. Fascinating to watch Henderson build a very productive, nationwide recruiting network, a supportive coaching staff and a current roster of contented role players 9 or 10 deep. Henderson was successful with the holdovers from the Johnson team but really hit his stride when Weisz, Cook, Brase, Bell, et al. signed up. Donahue turned things around quickly, although not unexpectedly, setting the stage for a new era of hostility at the south end of the Ivy League. For me the likelihood of three Penn games each year is delicious, even in the face of a not insignificant HCA at The Cathedral. Henderson record: 67-22 in the Ivies in 6+ seasons, 30-3 since 2015-16.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-18 11:47 AM - Post#245366
In response to JadwinGeorge
Yes, it's time this rivalry got competitive again.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-01-18 12:22 PM - Post#245371
In response to 10Q
Return to Normalcy
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4473
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-01-18 12:28 PM - Post#245373
In response to yoyo
According to the latest Bracketology, we are now on the outside looking in:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
Hopefully this changes after this weekend's games.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-18 12:47 PM - Post#245375
In response to Cvonvorys
If you sweep, there's a ~70% chance you're back in the top slot after the dust clears Saturday night.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-01-18 01:15 PM - Post#245380
In response to Cvonvorys
Lunardi is just a sore loser
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-01-18 01:47 PM - Post#245384
In response to yoyo
The USC coach used the absence of 4 regular players as an excuse for the loss. That’s not PN talking. It’s an asterisk at best. Princeton sucks.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-18 01:57 PM - Post#245385
In response to PennFan10
Getting our old bravado back I see.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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02-01-18 02:12 PM - Post#245388
In response to mrjames
If you sweep, there's a ~70% chance you're back in the top slot after the dust clears Saturday night.
And a 20% chance of showers, regardless of how the games turn out.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-01-18 02:46 PM - Post#245394
In response to PennFan10
That win against USC is important.
Penn beat Princeton
Princeton beat USC
USC beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-01-18 02:57 PM - Post#245396
In response to TheLine
Naw---I can beat it without USC.
Penn beat Dayton
Dayton beat St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies beat Syracuse
Syracuse beat Maryland
Maryland beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-01-18 04:36 PM - Post#245411
In response to palestra38
Or the bank shot off Harvard:
Penn
Monmouth
Manhattan
Harvard
UMass
Providence
Butler
Villanova
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-01-18 05:35 PM - Post#245422
In response to TheLine
More fun with the transitive property:
Time is Money.
Money talks.
Talk is cheap.
So time is cheap.
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-07-18 04:57 PM - Post#246801
In response to yoyo
15th seed playing Michigan St as of 2/5. maybe down to a 14 after trouncing Princeton?
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4473
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-26-18 12:38 PM - Post#249585
In response to yoyo
Currently looking at a 15th seed vs. Purdue:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketba ll/bracke...
After knocking off the Boilermakers, we'd face the winner of the Creighton/Virginia Tech game. Winnable.
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 12:43 PM - Post#249586
In response to Cvonvorys
I don't buy 15. I think 13. OK, I'm an optimist.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 02:11 PM - Post#249606
In response to Cvonvorys
According to that site, Harvard still has a better RPI than Penn (128 v 134).
Solely the result of Harvard playing a tougher schedule, even though the only Top 150 RPI team H has actually beaten so far is Penn (and lost to it the other time).
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8236
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 02:24 PM - Post#249608
In response to Cvonvorys
Win out, and 15 is likely - 14 a possibility with S-curve luck. The difference means a lot because the drop off after the 2-seeds is huge and if you get past that you end up with a 6-11 winner that could be manageable. At 15, I want Duke! Revenge for '78!
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yoyo
Senior
Posts: 365
Reg: 03-25-09
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02-26-18 02:54 PM - Post#249614
In response to Streamers
I agree with 10Q - win out and 13
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8236
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
|
We've Moved up to a 15th Seed!
02-26-18 03:05 PM - Post#249618
In response to yoyo
I agree with 10Q - win out and 13
wishful thinking - our SOS pretty much nixes that
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 04:15 PM - Post#249630
In response to Streamers
Win out, and 15 is likely - 14 a possibility with S-curve luck.
This is completely spot on. Anyone who is thinking of a 13 is going to be severely disappointed. Our SOS is just horrendous and even the IL tourney will not alter that.
In fact, if Penn does make it in conceivably the only teams we've played who would even be in the NCAA tourney could be 'Nova (the only for sure team) and Toledo. You never know what the other conference tourneys could do, of course.
First things first, of course--gotta get in.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 04:31 PM - Post#249633
In response to penn nation
Believe it or not, Navy has 20 wins and could conceivably win the Patriot League tournament.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-26-18 04:33 PM - Post#249634
In response to penn nation
13 seems unrealistic. Our schedule consisted largely of teams that came in little paper wrappers, topped with pink icing and sprinkles. Tasty, but empty calories.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 04:33 PM - Post#249635
In response to palestra38
They've gotten destroyed twice by Bucknell, the regular season champ.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 04:43 PM - Post#249640
In response to penn nation
3rd time's a charm
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 05:50 PM - Post#249647
In response to Silver Maple
Dayton will be key to watch. Right now, Penn's projected resume (pre-Ivy Tourney) is:
Quad1 (site adj Top 50): 0-1
Quad2 (site adj Top 100): 1-2
Quad3: 4-3
Quad4: 17-1
Dayton is BARELY hanging on as a Quad2 win and could easily fall to a Quad3. The Ivy Tourney would add, at best, one more Quad3 and one more Quad4 win (easily could be two more Quad4 wins).
It's NCSOS is 278.
That to me feels like a 15. With a loss this weekend, it might even tip to being a 16 without some real conf tourney damage elsewhere.
If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8236
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 06:00 PM - Post#249652
In response to mrjames
Wins over Toledo and LaSalle or beating Temple would have made 14 or 13 with luck a win-out scenario, but as it is... Mike pretty well summed it up.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:05 PM - Post#249654
In response to Streamers
Yes. Or, for that matter, beating Harvard in Allston as a potentially undefeated IL season and very long winning streak to end the year would have helped seeding as well.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4473
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-26-18 06:23 PM - Post#249657
In response to penn nation
Not for nothing, but did anyone actually expect us to be having this conversation back in November?
I went back and looked up my hopes for their first game against Fairfield, but in effect it was my hope for the entire season:
1) Brodeur and Betley picking up where they left off last year.
2) Brodeur and Rothschild playing well while on the floor together.
3) Woods living up to P38's expectations.
4) Wood eliminating his TO problem and draining 3-pointer after 3-pointer.
5) Foreman, relieved of any scoring burden, becoming the quintessential point guard.
6) The freshmen getting some playing time and showing off their potential.
7) Contribution from an unexpected source.
Rather prescient on my part, especially regarding Caleb, don't you think?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 06:27 PM - Post#249658
In response to Streamers
Funny thing is that, how the quadrants work, only Temple would have definitely helped, as that's a solid Quad2 game. La Salle is surprisingly enough a Quad4 game (it's that only Penn Quad4 loss).
Toledo would be darn close to Quad2, which would be helpful, but is borderline much like Dayton.
All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:30 PM - Post#249659
In response to mrjames
All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.
Besides 'Nova at 'Nova (or its cubby hole, anyways)
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:57 PM - Post#249662
In response to mrjames
If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.
The only reason for that would be losing to higher ranked teams which doesn't say very much for one's resume.
It certainly wouldn't be due to any actual wins on Harvard's part. Other than beating Penn, its best victories have come vs St Joseph's (#184) which Penn has also beaten, Yale (#200, and ditto) and then you're down to BU (#223).
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23368
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:06 PM - Post#249664
In response to Cvonvorys
I predicted 14 and 0.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-26-18 07:09 PM - Post#249665
In response to penn nation
Harvard's signature win is against Penn. So yeah, I'm failing to see how that makes Harvard more attractive.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:24 PM - Post#249668
In response to TheLine
You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.
Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.
From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-26-18 07:26 PM - Post#249669
In response to TheLine
Yea, Harvard’s resume better than Penn’s? I don’t see it. They lost to better teams but they really haven’t beat anybody.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 07:45 PM - Post#249672
In response to mrjames
Based on that convoluted bit of gymnastics worthy of an Olympic medal, I think I finally get why they call it March Madness.
You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.
Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.
From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:58 PM - Post#249674
In response to penn nation
How the committee makes decisions requires you to unlearn a lot of what you believe to be (and objectively is) reasonably true.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 08:39 PM - Post#249684
In response to mrjames
I would take that comment seriously if the selection committee was consistent and predictable.
But every year they find new and different ways to leave teams out.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-26-18 10:22 PM - Post#249702
In response to penn nation
Well, that's consistency right there, yes?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 10:46 PM - Post#249706
In response to Silver Maple
You're 2 nights early for Purim.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-01-18 09:50 PM - Post#250086
In response to palestra38
3rd time's a charm
We'll never know, as Navy gets knocked off by 11-18 Holy Cross in the first round.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4911
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-02-18 11:26 PM - Post#250341
In response to penn nation
Carmody trying for another Patriot tournament miracle run.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8236
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-03-18 03:44 PM - Post#250447
In response to SRP
As of this afternoon - our Kenpom still hanging at 133; Lunardi has Penn/Duke 15/2 in the east (Charlotte) and CBS is the same except they are slotting in Harvard (as they should at this point)
If Duke wins tonight - they are a 7(!) point favorite at home - They will likely end up a 1 seed unless they lose very early in the ACC tournament; even then it may not matter.
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