penn nation
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Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 04:33 PM - Post#249635
In response to palestra38
They've gotten destroyed twice by Bucknell, the regular season champ.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32803
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 04:43 PM - Post#249640
In response to penn nation
3rd time's a charm
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 05:50 PM - Post#249647
In response to Silver Maple
Dayton will be key to watch. Right now, Penn's projected resume (pre-Ivy Tourney) is:
Quad1 (site adj Top 50): 0-1
Quad2 (site adj Top 100): 1-2
Quad3: 4-3
Quad4: 17-1
Dayton is BARELY hanging on as a Quad2 win and could easily fall to a Quad3. The Ivy Tourney would add, at best, one more Quad3 and one more Quad4 win (easily could be two more Quad4 wins).
It's NCSOS is 278.
That to me feels like a 15. With a loss this weekend, it might even tip to being a 16 without some real conf tourney damage elsewhere.
If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 06:00 PM - Post#249652
In response to mrjames
Wins over Toledo and LaSalle or beating Temple would have made 14 or 13 with luck a win-out scenario, but as it is... Mike pretty well summed it up.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:05 PM - Post#249654
In response to Streamers
Yes. Or, for that matter, beating Harvard in Allston as a potentially undefeated IL season and very long winning streak to end the year would have helped seeding as well.
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Cvonvorys
Postdoc
Posts: 4471
Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
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02-26-18 06:23 PM - Post#249657
In response to penn nation
Not for nothing, but did anyone actually expect us to be having this conversation back in November?
I went back and looked up my hopes for their first game against Fairfield, but in effect it was my hope for the entire season:
1) Brodeur and Betley picking up where they left off last year.
2) Brodeur and Rothschild playing well while on the floor together.
3) Woods living up to P38's expectations.
4) Wood eliminating his TO problem and draining 3-pointer after 3-pointer.
5) Foreman, relieved of any scoring burden, becoming the quintessential point guard.
6) The freshmen getting some playing time and showing off their potential.
7) Contribution from an unexpected source.
Rather prescient on my part, especially regarding Caleb, don't you think?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 06:27 PM - Post#249658
In response to Streamers
Funny thing is that, how the quadrants work, only Temple would have definitely helped, as that's a solid Quad2 game. La Salle is surprisingly enough a Quad4 game (it's that only Penn Quad4 loss).
Toledo would be darn close to Quad2, which would be helpful, but is borderline much like Dayton.
All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:30 PM - Post#249659
In response to mrjames
All would have helped the overall RPI number, for sure, but in terms of adding a quality win, only Temple would have been for sure.
Besides 'Nova at 'Nova (or its cubby hole, anyways)
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 06:57 PM - Post#249662
In response to mrjames
If Dayton falls off the Quad2 line, you could make an argument that if both teams win out and meet in the IL Tourney final, Harvard would have a stronger resume for selection than Penn as the Ivy rep.
The only reason for that would be losing to higher ranked teams which doesn't say very much for one's resume.
It certainly wouldn't be due to any actual wins on Harvard's part. Other than beating Penn, its best victories have come vs St Joseph's (#184) which Penn has also beaten, Yale (#200, and ditto) and then you're down to BU (#223).
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10Q
Professor
Posts: 23360
Loc: Suburban Philly
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:06 PM - Post#249664
In response to Cvonvorys
I predicted 14 and 0.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-26-18 07:09 PM - Post#249665
In response to penn nation
Harvard's signature win is against Penn. So yeah, I'm failing to see how that makes Harvard more attractive.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:24 PM - Post#249668
In response to TheLine
You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.
Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.
From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3584
Reg: 02-15-15
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02-26-18 07:26 PM - Post#249669
In response to TheLine
Yea, Harvard’s resume better than Penn’s? I don’t see it. They lost to better teams but they really haven’t beat anybody.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 07:45 PM - Post#249672
In response to mrjames
Based on that convoluted bit of gymnastics worthy of an Olympic medal, I think I finally get why they call it March Madness.
You have to think of it through the eyes of the committee. Their tools give them limited data to go on in order to make decisions between the auto-bid seeds. What they look for first is Quad1 and Quad2 wins. At the 14/15/16, merely having any can be a differentiator. And in this case, Harvard would have 1 (at Penn, which would be ~125 if it wins out and loses to Harvard) and Penn would have zero (again Dayton could hang on, though). Penn beating Harvard in the IL Tourney final wouldn’t help Penn on that front, because it would only be a Quad3 game for them.
Then, they look at RPI and SOS/NCSOS. Harvard would be slightly better in the RPI as champ than Penn (~100 to ~110). It would be WAY better in SOS and NCSOS (right now around 150 in former and Top 100 in the latter). I think they’d both be 15s right now, regardless.
From an actual resume perspective (Wins Against Bubble or other strength of record measures), Penn has a much stronger resume than Harvard (and actually could be a borderline 13-seed case). There will be an SOR metric on the team sheets this year, but it’s unlikely that the committee will pay it much heed.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-26-18 07:58 PM - Post#249674
In response to penn nation
How the committee makes decisions requires you to unlearn a lot of what you believe to be (and objectively is) reasonably true.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 08:39 PM - Post#249684
In response to mrjames
I would take that comment seriously if the selection committee was consistent and predictable.
But every year they find new and different ways to leave teams out.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-26-18 10:22 PM - Post#249702
In response to penn nation
Well, that's consistency right there, yes?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-26-18 10:46 PM - Post#249706
In response to Silver Maple
You're 2 nights early for Purim.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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03-01-18 09:50 PM - Post#250086
In response to palestra38
3rd time's a charm
We'll never know, as Navy gets knocked off by 11-18 Holy Cross in the first round.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4910
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-02-18 11:26 PM - Post#250341
In response to penn nation
Carmody trying for another Patriot tournament miracle run.
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