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Username Post: Yale        (Topic#21046)
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1097

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-26-18 10:58 PM - Post#244754    
    In response to SRP

Yes, I saw that you did that - you were spot on. So frustrating I kept adding 2 points to Harvard's total all game in a sort of 'what if.' Couldn't believe that by relying on the official posted clock Harvard would be penalized.

In the game aftermath I wanted to underscore and expand on the ridiculous of it. Remember Munich 1972? Russians got 3 chances because clock wasn't right. Guess I'm on the side of the Russians now. Crazy world.


 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 270

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
01-26-18 11:11 PM - Post#244757    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

The defense tonight was incredible. In the last five minutes of the game I almost felt more comfortable when Yale had the ball than when we did.

Had the same thought on the shot clock violation. Did anyone see what Bassey did to earn the flagrant 1 earlier in the game? I never saw a replay.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1097

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-27-18 12:37 AM - Post#244760    
    In response to digamma

Replay was showed about a minute after play resumed. He sort of boxed out by lifting his right arm up and back, clipping a Yale guard. Didn't look intentional, but the rules don't care any longer.

Brown is going to try and run and gun. Juzang, Bassey and Johnson will have to work hard. Concerned that the shooting will suffer as they tire. Wonder how much Aiken can play on consecutive nights.

Read on Brown Board that Dartmouth Zone frustrated Brown and made that game close. That could help. Brown slashes more than they shoot 3's (32.3%)

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1097

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-27-18 12:43 AM - Post#244761    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Video is up on Harvard site. Bassey blocked Oni's 3 with six seconds left.

Guess defense wins games - just like the NFL.

 
mobrien 
Freshman
Posts: 9

Age: 33
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
01-27-18 01:42 AM - Post#244762    
    In response to SRP

I trekked up to New Haven for the game. A few thoughts:

- The first eight minutes might have been the best Harvard has played all year. It helps when Corey is making threes, but the defense was excellent (as it was most of the rest of the game), and the offense wasn't turning it over.

- Bryce was rusty. He turned it over on a bad pass his first possession, and didn't look confident trying to score on his own. Still, it was great to see him back on the court, and hopefully he can get back to what we need him to be...

- Because the offense is still god awful without him. Juzang competes really hard on defense, but he's a walking turnover on offense. Seth still settles for too many contested threes/long twos when he can generate better looks on his own. Lewis carried us for stretches, but the guards really struggle just entering the ball to him in the post. They try to do it almost straight on instead of from the wing where they have an angle. It remains the case that our offense is entirely dependent on hitting threes just to be okay.

- On a related note: the late game playcalling was pretty atrocious too. I would have liked to see a Seth/Lewis pick and roll from the middle starting with 12-15 seconds left on the shot clock, but instead we ended up waiting till there was 6-7 seconds left and giving Seth the ball deep on the wing/baseline. A bunch of possessions that had no chance when we were clinging to a three point lead.

- The good news, though, is that the defense continues to be nasty. We have a bunch of quick, physical wings who can switch a lot of actions. The communication between them all when they do it is impressive too. It doesn't hurt that Lewis is behind them to clean up anything that gets past them.

- Random observation: I'd like to see more of Djuricic. He's really active on the glass, is a better athlete than people realize, and, although he didn't show it tonight, can stretch the defense. In the right matchup (i.e., against a team without a big center), I wonder if it'd be worth trying him as a smallball five when Lewis needs a breather instead of going big with Welsh (who was admittedly okay in his minutes).

- Put it all together, and it was a good win in a tough environment that, if we can get Bryce healthy, gives us some hope that the team might be able to start living up to the potential we thought it had before the season. The defense is elite, and if a healthy Bryce can just make the offense slightly below average, we should have a very good chance to win the Ivies.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1097

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Yale
01-27-18 02:03 AM - Post#244763    
    In response to mobrien

Gotta love statisticians. Bassey blocks Oni’s 3 in the biggest play of the game but finishes the night with no blocks in the box score.

Why even keep stats if you can’t get this one right

Was Devin Nunes keeping the books?

Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-27-18 02:04 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-27-18 09:59 AM - Post#244766    
    In response to mobrien

As you state, very hard fought game. Even though it was at home, it says a lot about Yale to be down 20-5 at the 8 minute mark and be down by 4 at the half and it should have been 2 if Phils had dunked the ball after the turnover right at the end of the half. It says even more that Amaker got the ship steadied at HT on the road and the Crimson pulled out a very good road win in the waning minutes.

Other obvious takeaways are that Harvard an excellent defensive team and not a very good offensive team. Harvard scored 34 points over the last 32 minutes even with a dominant competitive advantage at center.
Why? To me, it is primarily a function of poor team passing and a predictable offense. Defense is indeed very good. Yale's best offense was to penetrate, kick out, pass the ball one or two times and someone was open but they shot poorly. Monroe was simply brutal at PG as he held onto the ball way two long and got harassed by Juzang and trapped by team defense. As Harvard fans have pointed out, the Crimson definitely need a healthy Aiken on the offensive end.

At the end of the day, it does not appear that any IL team is dominant as they are strengths and weaknesses for each team but time will tell. It should be a battle every weekend but for NCAA tournament purposes, it will only come down to a weekend -- how silly.

 
JadwinGeorge 
Junior
Posts: 274

Age: 69
Reg: 12-04-15
01-27-18 10:41 AM - Post#244768    
    In response to bradley

Bryce Aiken gives H a huge advantage going forward. No other team has won on the road. Nothing else to say. Harvard projects at 12--2 or at worst 11-3. 5 teams for 3 spots. Should be a fun ride

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-27-18 11:17 AM - Post#244769    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

Bryce was a negative last night. He’s a talent that can take the pressure off the rest of the offense, and he’s elite in PnR action. There’s no doubt at 100%, Harvard takes a big leap with him. Can he get to 100% and integrate back into the offense (he and Seth were very out of sync last night) fast enough to keep Harvard from taking on multiple losses over the next five games where Harvard won’t be more than a slight favorite in any of them?

I think Harvard’s easily more likely to have two losses (or more) over its next five games than finish 12-2.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-27-18 11:44 AM - Post#244770    
    In response to JadwinGeorge

With Aiken on the court, Crimson's offense obviously improves dramatically but there are still issues with the offensive play on the court from others as displayed last evening. Harvard's shooting percentage is not helped by ball movement and passing by four guys other than Bryce but their defense can certainly carry them a long way.

It would have been fun to watch the game with a healthy Bryce, Maki Mason and Bruner -- certainly would have been more points for both teams. I am sure that it would be very challenging for all IL teams including the Tigers to have Mason vs. Monroe on the floor and Bruner with Atkinson as a back up -- very different team.

I do not have a clue as to what the record will be for the top IL teams but probably, there are going to be losses along the way.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-27-18 11:54 AM - Post#244772    
    In response to bradley

Here are the odds for the number of wins the 1st place team will have:

14 - 1%
13 - 9%
12 - 31%
11 - 41%
10 - 16%
9 - 2%

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-27-18 12:20 PM - Post#244774    
    In response to mrjames

Wonder if the narrative is a little different if Harvard doesn’t miss 6 FT opportunities (2 front-ends and a 2-shot foul that could have easily been called intentional) down the stretch and wins that game by 7 or so.

It’s not looking good, but I’m doubling down on: this is a really good three-point shooting team and at some point it’s gonna start clicking. If Harvard plays this level of D and is even a nationally average offense, it’s a Top 50ish team. I don’t think the D will stay this good forever, but I don’t think the O will be this bad forever and that the O growth will easily outpace the D decline.

 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 270

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
01-27-18 12:50 PM - Post#244776    
    In response to mrjames

There was a play last night that shows the difference between what we can do with a healthy Bryce. He broke Phills down off the dribble and easily penetrated into the lane. In the past he's buried a 13-15 footer there or kicked to Johnson or Towns. He's just not there yet. But man, the defense.

 
digamma 
Junior
Posts: 270

Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
01-27-18 12:52 PM - Post#244777    
    In response to digamma

I care more about Harvard not getting to the free throw line until 10 minutes had passed in the second half than the misses. Towns isn't going to miss both very often.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
PhD Student
Posts: 1097

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
Yale
01-27-18 01:24 PM - Post#244778    
    In response to digamma

Penetration. That's what's missing.

As someone noted in this thread earlier, Yale penetrated then passed out for open 3's - they just weren't falling last night. Harvard's current guards not really a threats to break down the defense and take the ball all the way to the hoop. That is a strength of Bryce's, and it was even more a talent of Siyani, who would be looking for the open man on his penetrations. I'm sure we all have memories of Siyani dribbing just inside the foul line - head on a pivot - as he eschewed the open shot in favor of looking for a teammate or even dribbling back outside and starting all over again.

Opponents can overplay Juzang, Johnson and Bassey knowing that it is possible they'll turn the ball over on the drive rather than finish at the rim. That translates into forced 3 point attempts and a stagnant offense as the Crimson resort to passing the ball around the perimeter.

That's where a healthy Bryce makes a big difference, but he's still a shoot first scorer. Haskett is willing to go to the hoop, but the efficiency and passing aren't there yet. This is why I think Tommy McCarthy is missed as well. He is a better passer and penetrator because I recall he maintains control and is a bit more comfortable than Juzang and Haskett. He's also a good 3 point shooter.

I guess what I'm wondering is whether Harvard's poor 3 pt shooting is due to a lack of situations where the shooter receives the ball, facing the basket and with time to set himself. Johnson has been heaving up some deep 3's and Bassey is a good shooter, but he needs to set his feet in his unique shooting style.

Combine lack of transition with lack of effective penetration, and you are left with a predictable and stagnant offense.



Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-27-18 01:27 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
SRP 
Postdoc
Posts: 3503

Reg: 02-04-06
01-27-18 03:09 PM - Post#244779    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

One continuity from last year is that the best way to handle Harvard's offense is with ball pressure and tight perimeter coverage. Even more so without Chambers. Yale got back into the game by forcing turnovers and getting Harvard out of rhythm, leading to difficult shots late in the clock.

Lewis's value as an outlet and safe harbor was almost as great as his post scoring; his touches forced Yale to back off a bit. Sure, there were some post-entry-passing issues, but net I think looking to Lewis reduced turnovers.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1731

Reg: 02-15-15
01-27-18 04:46 PM - Post#244782    
    In response to mrjames

  • mrjames Said:

It’s not looking good, but I’m doubling down on: this is a really good three-point shooting team and at some point it’s gonna start clicking. If Harvard plays this level of D and is even a nationally average offense, it’s a Top 50ish team. I don’t think the D will stay this good forever, but I don’t think the O will be this bad forever and that the O growth will easily outpace the D decline.



I have seen you say this a few times. At this point, 18 games into a 29 game schedule, Harvard is shooting 29.5% from 3pt land. They are ranked 339th out of 352 teams. They are not a good shooting 3pt team. If they improve, even dramatically, they are likely to finish as an average 3pt shooting team. I don't see any scenario where we look back and say "this is a good 3pt shooting team".




 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-27-18 05:29 PM - Post#244785    
    In response to PennFan10

I understand that point and agree pretty much no matter what that the season long average will be below average. My point is that they’ve all been above average to great 3PT shooters for a season before (or in Danilo’s case - several different high-level FIBA competitions). This isn’t a “hope they improve!” type statement, but rather a “I think they should be able to replicate what they’ve done before.” Bryce, Seth, Corey, Justin were at 36+% shooters for a season and the team has just cratered. I’m betting those shooters are still in there somewhere.

 
bradley 
Masters Student
Posts: 779

Age: 69
Reg: 01-15-16
01-27-18 05:37 PM - Post#244786    
    In response to mrjames

Odds make sense -- two or three teams finish at 11-3??

Another possibility is that Aiken comes back healthy, Amaker figures out the offense, some 3 pt shots actually drop, a few more nail biter wins and the Crimson reach the 1 percentile by going 14-0. Reward, if Penn continues to play well, Harvard avoids a road game on Saturday, March 10th -- IvyLeagueMadness weekend.


 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5236

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
01-27-18 06:01 PM - Post#244787    
    In response to bradley

I could check that. I only checked for how many wins the first place team had, not whether there were others tied there. Overall there was a ~25% chance of a “playoff,” but obviously there’s more of a chance at lower 1st place win totals.

 
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