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Brown Columbia Cornell Dartmouth Harvard Penn Princeton Yale



Username Post: 2/2 Lines        (Topic#21073)
mrjames 
Professor
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Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-01-18 04:06 PM - Post#245406    

Dartmouth (+4.5) at Cornell
Yale (+6) at Princeton
Harvard (-1) at Columbia
Brown (+8.5) at Pennsylvania

Brown and Yale are pretty significant deviations from KenPom toward the road teams (2-3 pts).

 
TigerFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1871

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2/2 Lines
02-01-18 09:05 PM - Post#245448    
    In response to mrjames

Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: 2/2 Lines
02-01-18 09:19 PM - Post#245453    
    In response to TigerFan

  • TigerFan Said:
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog



The shadow knows.


 
whitakk 
Masters Student
Posts: 523

Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
Re: 2/2 Lines
02-02-18 12:35 AM - Post#245475    
    In response to mrjames

Yale-Princeton already up to 7.5, which makes more sense.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
Re: 2/2 Lines
02-02-18 09:12 AM - Post#245485    
    In response to penn nation

Nailed it.

  • penn nation Said:
  • TigerFan Said:
Shadow -3.5 at Groundhog



The shadow knows.





 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: 2/2 Lines
02-02-18 11:00 AM - Post#245510    
    In response to penn nation

Don't know that I totally grasp all the lines today.

Brown/Penn total of 145.5? Penn's *fast* games recently have all been due to ridiculous final two minute possession counts versus Cornell and Columbia due to free throws in those games. That's fine if you want to assume that again, but it doesn't mesh well with a 9.5-point spread. The two teams don't rebound the ball offensively all that much and Brown gets a ton of its points at the line which can add possessions, but that O/U and spread implies a 77-68 or 78-68 final, which seems like a LOT of points without end of game free throws. I think if you like the over, you have to like Brown covering.

Yale's moved a bit to +7.5. A team playing as well as Princeton has (No. 50) since the GW game in December, should be an 18.5-point favorite over Yale at home.

I don't know what to make of Harvard right now, but 138.5 seems like WAY too many points. Like most of that game, you're essentially proxying for taking the over on threes made.

 
Quakers03 
Professor
Posts: 12480

Reg: 12-07-04
02-02-18 02:09 PM - Post#245588    
    In response to mrjames

Are we not surprised that the Harvard line is as low as it is?

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-02-18 02:16 PM - Post#245590    
    In response to Quakers03

I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
2/2 Lines
02-02-18 04:12 PM - Post#245615    
    In response to Quakers03

I just wouldn’t touch that line. Bryce still isn’t starting, and it’s unclear how much he’ll play. The offense is awful without him unless Seth goes bonkers. Columbia could shoot their way out of the Harvard defensive sleeper hold. At the same time, if Harvard matches Columbia’s three point shooting and Bryce plays 30 mins or so, that line is probably a little light.

Would touch any Harvard lines until they get set with their actual team.

 
Quakers03 
Professor
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Reg: 12-07-04
02-02-18 05:26 PM - Post#245630    
    In response to PennFan10

  • PennFan10 Said:
I’ll be very surprised if Brown/Penn is in the 60’s for either team. I like the over a lot. I agree Brown covers.


Line is now up to 147 so I think others agree with you.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-02-18 06:04 PM - Post#245637    
    In response to Quakers03

Yeah - I'm even seeing 148 now. To me, that doesn't seem like a conception of the game that favors Penn.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-02-18 10:57 PM - Post#245738    
    In response to mrjames

Played out as I thought it might, though I would not have been shock d if Penn lost. Brown has too much firepower but can’t play defense. In the end AJ with a huge defensive stop via block and Penn made the FT they needed to. Max playing big minutes with 4 fouls.

 
Streamers 
Professor
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Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-03-18 01:51 PM - Post#245821    
    In response to PennFan10

Dogs went 4-4. I'm shocked! Bodes well for the Iggles.

Penn -6, PU -11.5, Harvard -3.5 Columbia -7.5 tonight. I don't think any of them cover. Aside from Harvard at 139, all the Unders look good as well.



 
Streamers 
Professor
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Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-04-18 12:44 PM - Post#246042    
    In response to Streamers

Dogs went 3-4, Penn hits FTs at the end and covers.

Still shaking my head over the PU/Brown game. I bet PU has never ever gone Chessesteak and lost before. I wonder if this has ever happened in the entire league?

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-04-18 01:00 PM - Post#246048    
    In response to Streamers

Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season.

 
T.P.F.K.A.D.W. 
PhD Student
Posts: 1169

Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
02-04-18 02:37 PM - Post#246060    
    In response to penn nation

Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose?

Asking for a friend.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 560

Reg: 11-23-04
02-04-18 02:51 PM - Post#246063    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

I do not believe there are any qualifications ... more beer sales after scoring 100 and winning or losing?

 
1LotteryPick1969 
Postdoc
Posts: 2262
1LotteryPick1969
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
02-04-18 03:08 PM - Post#246069    
    In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.

  • T.P.F.K.A.D.W. Said:
Does the Abner's cheesesteak promotion apply if we score 100 and lose?

Asking for a friend.



That's just cruel

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-04-18 03:58 PM - Post#246081    
    In response to penn nation

Found one! Columbia lost at Harvard, 102-100, on 2/19/72.



  • penn nation Said:
Closest I found for Penn was a 105-97 home loss to Harvard in the '89-'90 season.




 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
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02-04-18 04:22 PM - Post#246083    
    In response to 1LotteryPick1969

Don't know if the results thus far prove much:

Penn (5-0): all at home, all by single digits, no key injuries throughout. Outperformed abysmal season FT shooting to win last two games - trend or good luck?

Princeton (3-2): playing the best of all Ivy squads over the past 60 days; about to host its 5th game out of 6 with a chance to avenge the loss to Penn;

Harvard (5-1): looking good considering the Crimson have played 5 of 6 on the road, for the most part without Aiken and Baker; Aiken likely out for the foreseeable future, putting enormous pressure on Juzang and Haskett; Harvard fortunate that good start will allow for Bryce to rest and recover;

Brown (3-3): really impressive offense; had they made free throws at Penn would have swept P's on the road; playing this Brown team is scary; can one win the league with weak defense? More likely the tournament.

Columbia (3-3): already played at P's; looked good against Harvard but almost lost to Dartmouth at home;

Yale (2-4): no Mason sighting yet; finished with the trip to the P's;

Cornell (2-4): two man show, but those two (Morgan and Gettings) sure can score;

Dartmouth (0-6): gutsy and resilient, even without Chris Knight this past weekend; oh where they could be with a full roster

Coming Up:

Penn at Princeton: not my rivalry, but doubt Penn will need to score 95 or Princeton 100+ to win this game. Back to Ivy ball

P's at Harvard/Dartmouth: Harvard seems to have given itself the breathing room it needs regardless of what happens this coming weekend; would be huge if Crimson can split or sweep at home though. Can Dartmouth slow the P's march to the tournament? Unlikely.

C's at Yale/Brown: Big games for the 4th spot. Does Mason return? Brown's momentum could lift it to 5-3 which would be huge. Columbia wins at Yale/Brown would make a statement.

Buckle your seatbelts.



 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-04-18 04:32 PM - Post#246087    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

In sum, just about everyone is still in it.

And even for the cellar dwellers, 0-5 Dartmouth has played better than its record, and just remember that last year, Penn started out 0-6.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
02-04-18 04:53 PM - Post#246094    
    In response to penn nation

Absolutely, but IMHO Dartmouth just doesn't have the horses and Cornell really could have used a win against Harvard at home.

Appears Cornell has no depth which makes it precarious. Once a starter fouled out Harvard locked up the win. If either Morgan or Gettings misses the game I'd take Dartmouth over Cornell.

If Mason comes back healthy soon, Yale is a big factor. If not, Yale and Columbia will be chasing Brown for the 4th spot. Of course, Harvard is only another injury away from joining that group.

Strange year. Everyone is vulnerable.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-04-18 05:41 PM - Post#246101    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

With 4 road wins Harvard is in the drivers seat for the 1 seed. That's really hard to do.

Brown is the only other team with an Ivy road win.

Penn/Columbia have held serve at home and Princeton has some ground to make up with a home loss.

The winner of the IL regular season typically holds serve at home and wins 3-5 road games. Harvard at +4 is way ahead.

 
penn nation 
Professor
Posts: 21086

Reg: 12-02-04
02-04-18 05:48 PM - Post#246103    
    In response to PennFan10

H currently has a slight edge over Penn here, IMHO.

The Ps have yet to play any road games at all, except against each other. So that stat needs to be placed in proper context. I suspect both Ps will have close to 4 road wins, if not more, by season's end.

Plus, H has yet to play the Ps at all and it is not at full strength.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-04-18 09:33 PM - Post#246131    
    In response to penn nation

I don’t know... without Aiken at 100%, the PG play isn’t just too inconsistent to make them a favorite for anything. At the same time, no Ivy contender is perfect, but not having a PG that can get it across half court without turning it over might the biggest problem any of the contenders have.

I’d put Penn and Princeton ahead of Harvard until it proves it can get Aiken back on the floor healthy. Happy to revisit that if it does, but that offense is a lot of Towns hero ball and has been buoyed by strong 3-point shooting recently. Don’t see that being consistent the rest of the way.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-05-18 12:27 AM - Post#246156    
    In response to mrjames

Strong 3pt shooting that began as soon as I posted about them being a bad 3pt team and has continued every game since. I am waiting until Saturday for my next statement about Harvard's 3pt shooting.....

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 8141
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 10:04 AM - Post#246175    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

We will know a lot more by this time next week.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 11:40 AM - Post#246197    
    In response to PennFan10

Yeah - they're not *that* good from three such that they'll go 27-for-60 from three on the average weekend either. Somewhere in between. Harvard has some elite three-point shooters, and it would have been SHOCKING if they were sub-30 for the season. I suspect they'll still post some real stinkers from deep the rest of the way, but they should be capable of finishing the Ivy campaign in the 35-40% range.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-05-18 11:45 AM - Post#246200    
    In response to mrjames

I am just glad they didn't "mean revert" against my team, though that's still pending, thus my next comments on this will be that day in hopes of stemming the curse I started......

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 11:49 AM - Post#246203    
    In response to PennFan10

Ha - I think Penn will be just fine regardless. StevieD gets it and even if Harvard goes off for 40-50%, it'll be on sub-20 attempts, so the damage will be limited. I'd be stunned if he lets Harvard play the lottery a bunch of times from behind the arc.

 
Tiger69 
Postdoc
Posts: 2801

Reg: 11-23-04
02-05-18 01:25 PM - Post#246215    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

A lot depends on how the Tigers react to Brown loss. If they lose to h or the quackers, real title chances are probably lost. If they bounce back and sweep the next three, it's a new ball game. I don't want to speculate on the genius tourney. Fun for the winner, but no reason to boast. Unless it is the regular Champ.

 
PennFan10 
Postdoc
Posts: 3580

Reg: 02-15-15
02-05-18 01:26 PM - Post#246217    
    In response to Tiger69

If Penn gets the 1 seed, all moaning should be gone as the top seed hosts right?

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 6062

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
02-05-18 02:32 PM - Post#246231    
    In response to PennFan10

For this year, definitely.

 
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