1979Quakers
Freshman
Posts: 81
Age: 58
Reg: 06-06-17
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02-01-18 08:41 PM - Post#245443
Penn opens as a 9.5 point favorite.
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SteveChop
PhD Student
Posts: 1154
Reg: 07-28-07
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02-01-18 08:43 PM - Post#245445
In response to 1979Quakers
As long as it’s a win, I’m fine with it.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3995
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-01-18 09:06 PM - Post#245449
In response to SteveChop
How many chickens do you have?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Brown
02-01-18 09:21 PM - Post#245454
In response to 1979Quakers
Whoever bets Penn with that line is asking for trouble.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 09:38 AM - Post#245489
In response to penn nation
9.5 seems a bit rich for a team that has FT issues. If you lay that, you must be thinking blowout.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3052
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-02-18 09:51 AM - Post#245493
In response to Streamers
I am reposting this item that I posted on a thread at the Yale group yesterday. Btw, KenPom has Penn winning tonight's game 76-65.
Coach Martin was discussing Penn on his weekly show Wenesday night (which can be found on the ILN).
He feels that Penn has physical and mental toughness. He felt that Penn had a good offense, which is due to their ball movement and ability to spread the floor. He was impressed by Betley and Brodeur, specifically.
He was more impressed with their defense. Where Harvard gets in your face, tries to deny passes and attempts to disrupt a team's offense, Penn succeeds by strong gap defense and protecting the paint. They move teams away from the 3 point line and the rim, forcing opponents into a high number of unassisted two point jumpers.
FYI - Here are some numbers from last year's games.
Saturday 1/14/17
Brown 82 at Penn 70
Brown:
2 Pt 20-36 (56%)
3 Pt 6-17 (35%)
FT 24-26 (92%)
Rebounds 32 (10 O & 22 D)
TO 14
Points - Anderson 21, Speith 20, Okolie 14, Blackmon 12, Howard 4
Penn:
2 Pt 21-36 (58%)
3 Pt 4-19 (21%)
FT 16-19 (84%)
Rebounds 29 (10 O & 19 D)
TO 16
Points - Howard 20, Foreman 19, Brodeur 12, Donahue 8, MacDonald 0
Friday 2/17/17
Penn 96 at Brown 72
Brown:
2 Pt 11-25 (44%)
3 Pt 12-32 (38%)
FT 14-19 (74%)
Rebounds 23 (5 O & 18 D)
TO 15
Points - Speith 26, Howard 10, Anderson 9, Blackmon 9, Daugherty 5, Okolie 0
Penn:
2 Pt 20-30 (67%)
3 Pt 14-29 (48%)
FT 14-19 (74%)
Rebounds 43 (10 O & 33 D)
TO 18
Points - Betley 28, Donahue 20, Howard 11, Brodeur 10, Foreman 6
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91Quake
PhD Student
Posts: 1125
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-02-18 10:47 AM - Post#245503
In response to rbg
WOW!!!!!
We shot 84% from the line in a game??? Who knew?
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8237
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 10:57 AM - Post#245507
In response to 91Quake
I think Martin is a very smart coach and has Penn pegged.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:01 AM - Post#245511
In response to Streamers
Mike is a very smart, savvy coach. He'll have a gameplan. But everyone does until you get punched in the mouth and such, so we'll see...
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:07 AM - Post#245512
In response to Streamers
I think the biggest difference this year is that we're not giving up the easy points off of turnovers, and conversely, we're not giving up easy buckets off of passes, i.e., our turnovers are down and opponents' assists are way down. We're getting just much better fundamental guard play and it's something that isn't necessarily reflected in other statistics except for the final score.
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T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
PhD Student
Posts: 1171
Loc: Our Nation's Capital
Reg: 01-18-05
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Brown
02-02-18 11:08 AM - Post#245513
In response to mrjames
Mike is a very smart, savvy coach. He'll have a gameplan. But everyone does until you get punched in the mouth and such, so we'll see...
"Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus."
-Helmuth von Moltke
Edited by T.P.F.K.A.D.W. on 02-02-18 11:08 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Brown
02-02-18 11:15 AM - Post#245515
In response to T.P.F.K.A.D.W.
The Art of Basketball!
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:16 AM - Post#245517
In response to palestra38
To be fair, Penn is allowing 22.9% of shots in transition this year and 56.2% shooting on those shots. Last year it allowed slightly fewer shots in transition (21.2%) and lower conversions on those shots (49.8%).
The percentage of shots coming off steals is down this year (5.5% vs. 6.0%) and the conversion rate is down slightly (54.5% vs. 56.2%). Where Penn is struggling in transition is off of rebounds. Despite getting a lower % of OREBs this year, opponents are taking more shots in transition off rebounds and making a lot more.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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Brown
02-02-18 11:21 AM - Post#245518
In response to mrjames
As I said, I don't think the things I mentioned get picked up well by advanced stats---the reduction in turnovers don't necessarily result in transition attempts (not that I think there is a statistically significant difference given the numbers you mentioned) nor do I see the reduction in assists by opponents measured other than overall results. I would venture that the weakness in offensive rebounding could be due to getting more people involved in the offense. That's a tradeoff I am happy to make.
Edited by palestra38 on 02-02-18 11:25 AM. Reason for edit: Missed the initial point
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:22 AM - Post#245520
In response to mrjames
Mike James, please clarify:
<<Despite getting a lower % of OREBs this year, opponents are taking more shots in transition off rebounds and making a lot more. >>
Did you mean to say that opponents are getting a lower % of DREBs off Penn missed shots, but, despite those "fewer" DREBs, are having more production on transition following those DREBs?
What are the actual numbers you are comparing, year to year?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32811
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:26 AM - Post#245522
In response to Stuart Suss
I read that to mean that in transition, opponents are following up misses with buckets. I am not sure either, though
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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02-02-18 11:32 AM - Post#245523
In response to mrjames
I see it now. Penn's size and discipline provides a first half lead. In the second half Brown runs and guns its way to a final minutes FT shooting contest! That's what happened last Saturday (Harvard vs Brown) and it seems that both Columbia and Cornell did the same in Philly.
Who needs to play the game. The script is just being recycled.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3775
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-02-18 11:39 AM - Post#245524
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-02-18 11:44 AM - Post#245526
In response to palestra38
I don't want to get into any discussion unless it can be kept above the belt - but Penn has been consistently holding opponents below their average ORat. It isn't just against weaker teams, it's almost every game so far. Penn even held Nova below its ORat though not by a lot.
This is being driven by Penn's higher DReb rate and 3FG% against rate. I get that these are stats that the offensive typically controls more than the defense does, but Penn's defensive scheme is geared to excel in these areas. I have no idea if this will continue to hold true but it has so far.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-18 11:53 AM - Post#245528
In response to Stuart Suss
Penn is rebounding a lower % of its own missed shots on the offensive end than it did last year (normally a sign that a team is favoring getting back to defend against transition versus trying for offensive boards). Usually when that happens, transition attempts off of opponent defensive rebounds decline, but they've gone up this year. Could be because it's easier to beat the two big look back up the floor.
Penn's defense has improved in spite of the decline in transition D outcomes, not because of them.
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