internetter
Postdoc
Posts: 3400
Loc: Los Angeles
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-18 09:01 PM - Post#245447
https://sportschatplace.com/college-basketball-pi c...
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-02-18 06:40 AM - Post#245479
In response to internetter
He says we will cover the 1 pt spread.
I was shocked that after winning by 26 at home, we lost by 1 at Cornell. The shock will be equal if more pleasant if we somehow manage to slip by Harvard at home.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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 02-02-18 09:36 AM - Post#245488
In response to cc66
Smith has to play better in crunch time. He could have been a hero last Saturday but missed two critical free throws and an open three. He is in a bit of a slump right now. Hopefully he shows up big tonight. We will need Meisner to have a big game as well. The game notes show the same starting lineup, which many of us have criticized again, but I guess that Engles doesn’t read this blog.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-02-18 09:56 AM - Post#245494
In response to cc66
I don’t see why beating Harvard at home would be surprising. Just looking back at last year, a comparable Columbia team beat a much better Harvard team. And like this year, a comparable Columbia team split with a comparable Cornell team. I understand that it is a little frustrating to outplay Cornell overall for 80 minutes and come away 1-1, but I also don’t think the 26 point win was indicative of much other than one team having a really good game and the other having a really bad one. Regardless, Harvard overall hasn’t played that far above Columbia this year — not far enough for a game at Columbia to be anything other than a toss up. The question of course is whether Aiken is able to play (and play like himself) and whether Harvard’s recent record in league play is more indicative of their real level than their pomeroy rank. I don’t think Harvard sweeps the weekend (and if they do, the rest of the league should be thanking their lucky stars that there is a tournament).
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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Harvard game-an opinion
02-02-18 03:41 PM - Post#245608
In response to SomeGuy
I understand, KP ranking to KP ranking, why it wouldn't be a surprise for Columbia to defeat Harvard at home: H leads C in KP by about 45 slots, 1 pt = 17 or 18 slots in KP, and home court offers about a 4 pt advantage. In this case, however, KP's H ranking is a lagging indicator that does not reflect the recent upturn in Harvard's performance. That is why I would be quite surprised if Columbia won.
Edited by cc66 on 02-02-18 03:42 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Harvard game-an opinion
02-02-18 05:18 PM - Post#245625
In response to cc66
Curious how much upturn there has really been. They barely swept a team ranked over 300 (the 2nd game in OT), and then they won 2 games on the road that, while pomeroy would predict a split, doesn’t seem at all absurd for a team at Harvard’s level to win. So i’m Not sure they are actually playing any better. Regardless, they are 4-0 with 3 road wins. Another sweep this weekend would put them firmly in the driver’s seat.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Harvard game-an opinion
02-02-18 06:08 PM - Post#245638
In response to SomeGuy
Through the Vermont game and headed into its first matchup with Dartmouth, Harvard was No. 208 on the season. Over the past five games (four Ivy wins plus Wofford), Harvard is No. 141 and has been consistently there over the past five.
That's some improvement. Not all that major, but some.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-02-18 08:59 PM - Post#245663
In response to mrjames
Smith replaced by Stefanini in starting lineup. Castlin has 12 points in 9 minutes, Meisner has 9. Down by 6. Harvard cannot miss from outside and we cannot guard Towns. Our three point shooting is poor. But otherwise we are playing them tough. I would expect to see Smith in the second half. PS, Harvard is getting most of the calls and the refs aren’t giving us anything.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-02-18 10:04 PM - Post#245698
In response to Chet Forte
Fantastic second half. I take back everything I ever said about Engles. He coached a great game.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-02-18 10:07 PM - Post#245702
In response to Chet Forte
Adlesh with 20, Smith, Meisner, and Castlin with 16 + one of Tape's best games with 10 and sound defense.
We win by 7, 83-76, and I am very happy to have been so wrong.
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cc66
Postdoc
Posts: 2203
Reg: 10-09-09
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02-02-18 10:27 PM - Post#245721
In response to cc66
ORAT: 1.26 for Columbia, including
Meisner 122
Castlin 144
Tape 127
and Adlesh 164
H's ORAT was 1.15 but we rise 9 slots in KP to 224.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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 02-02-18 10:31 PM - Post#245725
In response to cc66
Great game coaching by Engles. Starting Stefanini and bringing Smith off the bench. Best lineup tonight was Meisner, Smith, Adlesh, Castlin and rotating Tape and Faulds.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-02-18 10:34 PM - Post#245727
In response to Chet Forte
Re Harvard:excellent outside shooting team, and Towns is an excellent scorer. But I didn’t see much from Lewis, who is huge but not particularly mobile. Their best PG wasn’t 100% and went down with an injury and nobody can really play the point. Smith really excelled in the second half but my MVP was probably Meisner, who has a great all around game.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-02-18 10:38 PM - Post#245729
In response to Chet Forte
PS, we had an awful start and couldn’t buy a basket but clawed our way back to 6 down by halftime. We finally roared out of the gate in the second half and basically outplayed Harvard from beginning to end, despite the fact that we couldn’t slow down Towns.
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Columbia 37P6
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Posts: 2173
Reg: 02-14-06
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02-02-18 11:06 PM - Post#245743
In response to Chet Forte
By far Columbia's best game of the Engles Era. Castlin was terrific in the first half and then Adlesh, Smith, Meisner and Tape were all great in the second half. Faulds and Castlin were there also. Engles made all the right moves tonight. Cornell just came back to defeat Dartmouth by one point. Columbia needs to come out of the gate strong against Dartmouth tomorrow night. Dartmouth doesn't seem to match up well with the Lions.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-03-18 01:15 AM - Post#245763
In response to Columbia 37P6
Can't believe Harvard made 16 threes and Columbia still won. Adlesh was unreal in that early 2H stretch. Impressed by Smith going from benching/struggling/sitti ng in 1H to be great but not forcing things in 2H.
http://www.nycbuckets.com/2018/02/columbia-tops -ha...
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-03-18 08:53 AM - Post#245773
In response to whitakk
This Columbia team has a lot of talent on it. Most of the year the team has played much better in the 1st half than the 2nd, looks like it reversed tonight.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-03-18 09:00 AM - Post#245775
In response to whitakk
Meisner had a great all around game, not just offensively and in rebounding but defensively as well. Looks like he may finally be reaching his enormous upside.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-18 10:06 AM - Post#245787
In response to Chet Forte
Watched a good bit of the replay. Columbia really played very well, and had an excellent game plan. I think that, when the dust has settled at the end of this season, we'll all conclude, despite all the intervening gnashing of teeth, that the program has taken a step forward. Maybe not a huge step, but a step nonetheless. (BTW, it's clear to me that Brown is also a program on the rise.) However, I was also deeply unimpressed with Harvard last night. I know injuries have been a problem, but that program has more talent in it than any other in the conference (at least that's what everybody says). Is it possible that Tommy Amaker's deficiencies as a coach are being exposed?
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-03-18 10:12 AM - Post#245788
In response to Silver Maple
I should probably leave the Columbia fans alone to enjoy the ups and downs of the season. However, I think last night was a predictable result that doesn’t really show that Columbia is doing anything other than chugging along at a 230 pomeroy type level. Much like the Cornell split. I think Columbia is just going to split a lot of series this year (and win more at home than on the road).
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6406
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-03-18 10:28 AM - Post#245791
In response to Silver Maple
As for Amaker, I think he’s often underestimated as a coach, so I don’t want to play too much to that narrative. More than game coaching deficiencies, I think there are two fair questions/criticisms this year. First of all, I think the messing with the lineup and benching guys to make a point may have been counter productive this year. They might gel and have it all look like genius in the end, but i think he’s messed with the guys heads a lot and it may have been showing up in the results. My second question/criticism is whether the staff thought hard enough about how all of this fits together. Obviously the Aiken/McCarthy injuries expose this more, and it is possible the point guards coming in next year will make all of this look different.
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Silver Maple
Postdoc
Posts: 3770
Loc: Westfield, New Jersey
Reg: 11-23-04
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Harvard game-an opinion
02-03-18 10:50 AM - Post#245796
In response to SomeGuy
My second question/criticism is whether the staff thought hard enough about how all of this fits together.
That's my big question as well. I wonder if Amaker and his staff haven't focused far too much on gaudy recruiting ratings and rankings, and not enough on who's actually right for their program.
If David Hume were a college basketball fan (not to mention alive), he'd be framing this issue within the context of "is and ought."
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LionFan
Senior
Posts: 398
Reg: 11-07-06
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Harvard game-an opinion
02-03-18 10:53 AM - Post#245797
In response to SomeGuy
This was a fun game to watch. It looked like a blowout at first until Columbia's guys got their feet under them. They showed alot of guts coming back against a more athletic team. A fascinating part of the game was Columbia flirting with disaster up front. Tape had three early fouls, and Faulds ended up with four. Engels kept switching them back and forth to protect Tape, and keep a post presence to balance Harvard's bigs. If the Tape and Faulds had fouled out, the outcome would have been different. Just one of sevral matchup dramas that developed during the game.
Edited by LionFan on 02-03-18 10:54 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Harvard game-an opinion
02-03-18 11:03 AM - Post#245798
In response to Silver Maple
Harvard’s paying for the years it couldn’t get the guys with the high ratings, not the other way around. As Kevin Whitaker pointed out, and I’ve cited on here a lot, Harvard’s Top 10 2016 class is the most productive cohort in the league, even with many of the players combining to miss a lot of games this year. The problem is that other than Chris Egi, who was rated more as a projection than from output (he was a grinder at Montverde - got most of his points from OREBs and open chances around the hoop off feeds from their stars), Harvard whiffed on a ton of ranked prospects in the 2014 and 2015 classes.
Harvard is paying for that now. The players we all expected to be good based on ratings or offers are the ones producing (most of the 2016 class, Djuricic, Johnson).
Look at the kids that Harvard just missed on... Falzon, Turner, Metu, Roberson, Gray. All ranked and/or with high major offers. All would have made Harvard a lot better right now.
You just can’t whiff on a few straight classes and not pay for it.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-03-18 11:18 AM - Post#245800
In response to mrjames
From my perch in the Columbia stands I thought that Towns was easily Harvard’s most athletic and productive player. I also thought that Harvard was a phenomenal three point shooting team. But I was underwhelmed by Lewis, who is just plain huge but not all that mobile. I also was surprised by Harvard’s difficulty in breaking down the press. I really liked the way that Meisner opened up his offensive game and crashed the boards. While I still do not see why Castlin is not starting over Hickman, it is hard to quarrel with success and bringing both Smith and Castlin off the bench seemed to work. Finally, this was easily Tape’s best game and he and Faulds made fo a very good rotation. Faulds did not seem intimidated by playing in a big game.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-03-18 11:28 AM - Post#245802
In response to Chet Forte
The zone took Lewis out of it to start, and Harvard never really made an effort to get him involved when the Lions went back to man.
And without Aiken, ball pressure yields huge dividends against Harvard. Aiken and TMac are the only two really ball handlers on the roster, and the Crimson’s combo guards (Rio and Juzang) are extremely turnover prone. Would definitely use soft pressure playing Harvard with no Aiken in the game.
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Dr. V
PhD Student
Posts: 1537
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-03-18 12:08 PM - Post#245807
In response to mrjames
Great tactical moves by Engles keeping Smith out of the starting lineup; for whatever reason, that seemed to help reset his game. Also the full court trap that seemed to bother H all night long, great substitution patterns etc. But in the end, the players had to and in this case actually delivered. If Castlin and Smith hadn't hit all of those FTs, we could just as easily have lost, and the conversation today would be very different. Being a coach must be a little crazy in that "your" performance can be dependent upon something over which you have zero influence: whether your guys can step up to the FT line and hit those free throws.
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bradley
PhD Student
Posts: 1842
Age: 74
Reg: 01-15-16
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02-03-18 03:46 PM - Post#245842
In response to Dr. V
Engles did a great job. Lions down by 15 pts early and Towns on fire and he got his team slowly back into the game. It certainly helped that the Lions are were at home.
Columbia did an excellent job in attacking Harvard's defense. Engles demonstrated good strategy as to how to get open looks against Crimson's defense. Harvard's turnovers certainly helped as well.
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Chet Forte
Postdoc
Posts: 2968
Reg: 03-02-08
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02-03-18 04:16 PM - Post#245845
In response to bradley
This must be a weekend for NYC upsets. St.John’s took down Duke in the garden this afternoon. Hopefully that is the last NYC upset of the weekend.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 32
Reg: 11-11-14
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02-03-18 05:41 PM - Post#245860
In response to Dr. V
Smith didn't start due to “basic team stuff†per Engles. Assume that meant conduct, not tactics.
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