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Username Post: Yale        (Topic#21087)
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1921

Reg: 02-15-15
02-04-18 04:46 PM - Post#246102    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Echem....I said that they would win 20, at least 9 in the league (I underestimated there, although this is pre-road trip) and based that on Antonio and Foreman and Betley providing the kind of solid defense on the perimeter that they had. I never look at freshmen because none of us knows how ready they are. But the obvious replacement for Howard was Antonio, because he is a better defender against tough guards and we had replacements at the 4 (although no one knew how well Max would play). But there is a notable silence on the Antonio doubters, which is warranted at this point---he plays GREAT defense, hits big shots (although not a great outside shooter), is money taking it to the basket and simply makes no mistakes with the ball. He is the biggest difference so far this year in the League.



You did call for 20 games, I stand corrected. And Antonio has been rock solid, very much contributing to several of our wins. I think he is a huge difference maker for this team and likewise I think Max's development is equally huge. Those two have more than replaced Matt H and are major reasons why this team is playing so well.




 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1921

Reg: 02-15-15
02-04-18 04:58 PM - Post#246105    
    In response to palestra38

  • palestra38 Said:
Echem....I said that they would win 20, at least 9 in the league (I underestimated there, although this is pre-road trip) and based that on Antonio and Foreman and Betley providing the kind of solid defense on the perimeter that they had. I never look at freshmen because none of us knows how ready they are. But the obvious replacement for Howard was Antonio, because he is a better defender against tough guards and we had replacements at the 4 (although no one knew how well Max would play). But there is a notable silence on the Antonio doubters, which is warranted at this point---he plays GREAT defense, hits big shots (although not a great outside shooter), is money taking it to the basket and simply makes no mistakes with the ball. He is the biggest difference so far this year in the League.



To be clear, last summer after I posted an update on the freshman your wrote this:

  • palestra38 Said:
If what you say is true, we are looking to be at best the same as last year---give us improvement for AJ and Betley, but the loss of Howard will not be replaced by anyone close to his senior ability.

If we don't have an immediate freshman impact, ugh.





 
SteveChop 
Masters Student
Posts: 714

Reg: 07-28-07
02-04-18 06:48 PM - Post#246115    
    In response to TheLine

I do agree with a prior comment that something may have been wrong with Oni. Not only did he disappear, in large part due to Woods’ defense, but he was not even on the floor during the latter part of the game when Yale made their run.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
02-04-18 06:57 PM - Post#246117    
    In response to PennFan10

You really worked for that. By the time I saw Antonio play and read what Donahue said about him, I had changed my opinion, as was noted above.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4674

Reg: 11-22-04
02-04-18 11:22 PM - Post#246154    
    In response to palestra38

The "Antonio doubters" only come out when you make hyperbolic statements about his play and misrepresent both what you have said and what we have said. In all of the scenarios we discussed, this is exactly what we were saying was a reasonable positive season for him. One where he gets more efficient and is a positive cog. He's great giving us a second ball-handler, diving along the baseline when other guys drive, etc. I agree he's been great on defense too, although I don't think there is any question that the staff still views Foreman as the best perimeter defender, which is why, he was actually switched to Cambridge and Oni (instead of Woods) whenever Anderson or Copeland was off the floor.

Woods' numbers now are, as we tried to tell you, similar to where Foreman was last year. A reasonable positive progression from where he was as a Soph. He's still 4th in scoring for us, and last among our starters in WS/40. If this is what you meant all along, great, I guess you were right, but it basically means we never disagreed in the first place. Sure sounded to me like you were predicting an All-Ivy season from a guy who would potentially be our leading scorer.

None of this is intended as a knock on Antonio, who has been a rock for us, has a high bball IQ and has saved our bacon repeatedly (as have about 7-8 different guys). I really love the way our top 6 plays right now on both offense and defense. I heartily agree that Antonio's skill set is a big part of that mix.

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Yale
02-04-18 11:26 PM - Post#246155    
    In response to SomeGuy

Sorry, but I was right and all you guys were wrong. I never was hyperbolic over Antonio. I just was correct that he is a real Division One guard and is replacing guys who really were Division Two guys. And Antonio is better than Foreman on defense--it was Antonio who completely shut down Oni after he hit his first 3 shots. No, his contribution is not represented in advanced stats, but that is the weakness in advanced stats, not Antoinio. You just cannot admit it. But that's OK, the evil empire was defeated tonight.

 
SomeGuy 
Postdoc
Posts: 4674

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: Yale
02-04-18 11:41 PM - Post#246160    
    In response to palestra38

No, I was right and you were wrong. I've got my eyes AND the stats -- you've just got your eyes.

Agreed that Woods shut down Oni. My point is merely that there is a clear pecking order in how we defend, and that Foreman is the default on the main guy (with a bias toward guarding the point when there are 2 tough guys to defend). So with Brown he guarded Anderson, but as soon as he leaves the game Foreman moves to Cambridge. Same thing with Yale. When Copeland was out, Foreman had Oni (except when Yale played small and we played big -- then it was AJ on him).

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-04-18 11:46 PM - Post#246161    
    In response to SomeGuy

Antonio came onto Oni after he scored 3 straight and didn't score again all game. Antonio is much stronger than Foreman (who is playing great, now that he is second in having to play the toughest offensive player).

You DON'T have stats on your side because all they measure is that Antonio is not a good 3 point shooter (although better than Foreman). What on earth do you think they are telling you? Antonio makes no turnovers, scores 10 or more points in the league games, and stops the best offensive guard on the other team. You have nothing to support your argument--all you are doing is showing that blind obedience to questionable statistics makes you arrogantly stubborn about incorrect conclusions.

 
omegahouse 
Freshman
Posts: 71
omegahouse
Reg: 12-06-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 12:21 AM - Post#246162    
    In response to palestra38

Hmmmmm.......cogent and thoughtful posts by many of the faithful......alas, Simon and Garfunkel (sorry, spelling on an iPhone is an adventure) worry: “whither Jeff2sf??” No observations, he?

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 3807

Reg: 11-22-04
02-05-18 06:45 AM - Post#246165    
    In response to omegahouse

I'm on vacation both literally (Disney) and figuratively(EAgles).

Catch you ppl later

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5269

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 08:37 AM - Post#246170    
    In response to palestra38

Wow, quite Trumpian... The good news is that we were specific in the Red & Blue thread that captured this argument. You wanted me to give you a reasonable estimate of what you might expect from Antonio. Here's what I said:

  • Quote:
I can take a crack at this.

At 30 mins, that's 75% of team mins. Assuming low-to-mid 20s in shot rate when on the floor, that means he's going to take about 17-18% of total team shots. Penn will probably take about 55-60 shots a game, so he'll take roughly 10 per game.

Using the splits we've seen historically, he'll take 2.5 as layups, 3.75 as 2PTJs and 3.75 as 3s. Let's say he makes upper 50s at the rim, upper 30s as 2PTJs and around 30 from three. That's 9 pts on 10 shots.

His FTRate has been pretty consistently at 30%, so tack on 3 free throws a game. We'll put him at his freshman year rate and that's another 2 pts. So, now he's at 11ppg.

He's going to be on the floor for about 43 shots a game and Penn will make about 19 of those. Of those, four will be his. So there are 15 made baskets upon which he could assist. Let's middle his assist rate and call it 25%. So, he's going to be at about 3.8 apg.

He'll be on the floor for 53 poss per game. Say his usage rate is in the low-to-mid 20s, that'll be about 12 poss per game. I'll middle his TO Rate to about 18%, so that's right around 2topg.

To me, that's an appropriate baseline. Those counting stats will increase/decrease based on playing time, usage/shot rates on court and conversion percentages. Playing time will be the biggest factor.



Your reply was:

  • Quote:
And those, roughly, correspond to his stats from his first 1.4 years.

I look for significant improvement.



Turns out, he's been slightly under those stats, primarily because he didn't turn out to be a 20+% usage, ball-dominant player, but rather has become an off-ball secondary option. That's the type of player he should have become given his offensive limitations, but a guy like that is far more common than the picture you painted of his potential performance.

If you look back at that entire thread, your stance here is pretty nuts.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3889

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
Re: Yale
02-05-18 08:38 AM - Post#246171    
    In response to palestra38

The bigger story IMO is the emergence of Caleb Wood.


 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2822
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 08:57 AM - Post#246174    
    In response to TheLine

As to Wood: I have to admit I was wrong about him. He has become very important to this team as a reliable shooter who drains it when he gets his feet set in his spots and at the FT line. His defense has improved a lot and gets more layups and assists than I ever thought possible. He is now an official 6th man.

The Woods debate has become unreadable as it has become a proxy for the ‘stats vs sight’ conflict. Trying to assess Woods’ value to the team using the numbers alone is futile. There are so many intangibles with him both on the court and off. I’m a data guy, both personally and professionally, but one of the best lessons I have learned and taught is knowing where analytics end and common sense begins.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3889

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
Yale
02-05-18 09:19 AM - Post#246176    
    In response to Streamers

Streamers - totally agree. And I'm also in a field that relies a lot on data.

A major issue with assessing Woods analytically is that much of his positive contribution on the court is on the defensive end, where the advanced numbers we play with are incomplete.

And then there are the little things. I'm not saying others don't do these little things, just that I do notice Woods doing them a lot and they do make a difference.

One play on Saturday really stood out for me. In the first half Woods tried taking it to the rim, got mugged and fell hard on the court. No call. He didn't lay there looking for a foul call that wasn't coming. He didn't even look in the ref's direction. Instead Woods got right back up and raced down the court to get into defensive position and helped stop Yale on that possession.

I don't know where Woods should rate to be honest. My sense is that he's on par with Foreman, who continues to be an underrated player. I do know that Penn wouldn't be where it is without Woods.


 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 09:25 AM - Post#246177    
    In response to mrjames

Not at all....you completely discount the fact that he is playing 30 minutes a game and considerably more in the Ivy season and making only 1.3 turnovers a game and playing the best offensive guard (and sometimes small forward) of the other team on defense.

He is shooting over 55% from 2, which if you look back is exactly what I said--that he gets to the hoop and finishes better than anyone on the team. You and the other stat guys have no way to measure this since you discount 2 point shots and defensive metrics are not exactly well defined.

If guys like this were pretty standard, he would not have played 75 minutes this weekend and been the best all around player on the court. You're free to have your own opinions about what makes a player a good player, but please don't give us that tautology speech about how his advanced stats prove he sucks. All they mean is that he is not a great 3 point shooter---other than that , he is really good at this level at every aspect of the game.

Yes, and let's not forget Caleb Wood, who has morphed into a great 6th man---not only does he shoot the lights out, but rebounds like a beast.

 
Cvonvorys 
Postdoc
Posts: 2322

Loc: Princeton, New Jersey
Reg: 10-11-06
Re: Yale
02-05-18 09:45 AM - Post#246181    
    In response to palestra38

From my perspective, this team is a well balanced team where the players have clearly defined roles and have accepted/embraced their roles. We don't win with 5 Antonios on the court, but he is tremendous in his role. No stats to back this up, just my opinion.

By the way, I have gotten to know Ryan's parents a bit and was chatting with them after Saturday's game. They told me that Ryan and the entire team don't pay attention to personal stats and are only concerned about winning games. You can see that from the players on the bench who you know want desperately to get on the floor but are nonetheless rabidly cheering their teammates on...

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 19660

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 09:47 AM - Post#246182    
    In response to palestra38

Let me just add that I don't understand how you can say that 2P shooting up 75 percentage points, 3P shooting up 70 percentage points, rebounding close to double and turnovers down by 1/3 is not significant improvement. .308 3 point shooting and 57% FT shooting (although better lately) is the basis for your entire position that he is just another guy. He is very good at every other aspect of the game.

 
TheLine 
Postdoc
Posts: 3889

Age: 55
Reg: 07-07-09
Re: Yale
02-05-18 09:58 AM - Post#246184    
    In response to Cvonvorys

  • Cvonvorys Said:
From my perspective, this team is a well balanced team where the players have clearly defined roles and have accepted/embraced their roles. We don't win with 5 Antonios on the court, but he is tremendous in his role. No stats to back this up, just my opinion.

By the way, I have gotten to know Ryan's parents a bit and was chatting with them after Saturday's game. They told me that Ryan and the entire team don't pay attention to personal stats and are only concerned about winning games. You can see that from the players on the bench who you know want desperately to get on the floor but are nonetheless rabidly cheering their teammates on...


The stats do back up your opinion.

Win shares of the top 6 :
Betley - 2.9
Brodeur - 2.2
Foreman - 1.9
Woods - 1.8
Wood - 1.7
Rothschild - 1.6

That's incredibly balanced.


 
Streamers 
Postdoc
Posts: 2822
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: Yale
02-05-18 10:08 AM - Post#246186    
    In response to TheLine

  • TheLine Said:

I don't know where Woods should rate to be honest. My sense is that he's on par with Foreman, who continues to be an underrated player. I do know that Penn wouldn't be where it is without Woods.



The biggest reason IMHO that we are winning the close ones lately is that we have 8 years of experience and maturity in our starting backcourt to go with real ability. We have not had anything like it since Rosen was running the show.

 
PennFan10 
PhD Student
Posts: 1921

Reg: 02-15-15
02-05-18 10:18 AM - Post#246187    
    In response to Streamers

We don't have the most talent in the league, but we may be the best team.

That's a real testament to SD and the coaches as well as this group of players who clearly are passionate about each other in a way you don't see much.

 
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